Population Geography

Distribution

of World

Population
Rates of Population
Growth
Demographic Transition
Theory
Overpopulation (Malthus
and Neo-Malthusians

Humanity has wandered the

earth for a very long time.

The first hominids roamed eastern Africa

5-7 million years ago.

The first modern humans walked

out of Africa as hunter-gatherers
only 70,000 years ago.

At that time there were probably

about 1 million humans on Earth

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When Darwin published On the Origin of

Species there were 1 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When I was born there were

5.0 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world

population at:

7.2 Billion humans today

and counting!
http://www.worldometers.inf
o/world-population/

Our impacts
are growing.

Las
Vegas,
Nevada
LANDSAT
Images
1973 - 2006

Human Impact on The Environment

Human
Human Impact
Impact on
on the
the Environment,
Environment, 1700
2002
2032

Source: Hugo Ahlenius. 2003. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Global Environmental Outlook 3, 2002.

WHERE ARE THE PEOPLE

DISTRIBUTED?
Densely Population Areas

Sparsely Population Areas

East Asia

arid lands

South Asia

tropical rainforests

Southeast Asia

highlands

Europe

high latitudes

North America

World and Country Population

Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of
earth's surface!
Total: 6.8 billion on planet as of March 5, 2010
Current World Population Counter from U.S Census Bureau
Five most populous regions and countries

REGION

POPULATION COUNTRY

East Asia 1.6 billion

South Asia 1.5 billion
Europe
1 billion
SE Asia 600 million
Eastern N. America &
Canada 275 million

POPULATION

China
India
U.S.
Indonesia

1.3 billion
1.1 billion
300 million
250 million

Brazil

188 million

Kolkata, India

Rajasthan, India

Overpopulation is when there are too many people

relative to available resources. Simple density is not the

determinant.

Human Population Projections

How many people will the planet eventually support?
The U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Statistics
Division both agree that world population will level off
somewhere between 9 and 11 billion people and then start
to fall.

Doubling Time
How long will it take for a population
of a given area to double in size?

Divide 70 by the annual population

natural increase rate and you find the
doubling time.
World = 58
Sub-Saharan Africa = 30
Uganda = 20 years
Costa Rica = 80
U.S.A. = 128 years
Denmark = 333 years
Russia = ?
Japan = ?

Source: National Geographic Magazine

Example: Bangladesh
70 / R.N.I. => 70/2.09 = 33.5 years

Bangladesh with a population of

144.3 million people in 2005 will
have approximately 288.6
million people in 2038, if the
population continues to grow at
current rates.

Rates of Natural Increase

Total Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate - the average number of

children a women will have in her
childbearing years. This rate varies from just
over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali).
The U.S. rate is 2.
2.1 is generally regarded as the
replacement rate (the rate at which a
population neither grows nor shrinks) in
the developed world. In less developed
countries this rate should be higher to
account for so many children not
reaching childbearing age.

Palestinian
Territories

Fertility
Rate

1975-1980

7.39

1980-1985

7.00

1985-1990

6.43

1990-1995

6.46

1995-2000

5.99

2000-2005

5.57

Total
fertility
rate

U.K.
1975-1980

1.72

1980-1985

1.80

1985-1990

1.81

1990-1995

1.78

1995-2000

1.70

2000-2005

1.66

Africa

Fertility
Rate

1975-1980

6.60

1980-1985

6.45

1985-1990

6.11

1990-1995

5.67

1995-2000

5.26

2000-2005

4.97

Infant Mortality Rate the number of deaths of children under the age
of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3
(Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The
U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher
fertility rates as families seek insurance for the loss of children.

World Death Rates

Epidemiological

Transition is the shift from

infectious to degenerative diseases that
occurs with development.
Infectious diseases (developing world)
HIV/AIDS
SARS
Malaria
Cholera
Degenerative

Obesity
Tobacco use

diseases (developed countries)

Adults and Children Living with

HIV/AIDS, mid-2006

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy
Rapid increase
throughout world
Infant mortality rate
declining in most
countries
Antibiotics/immunization
Increasing standards of
living

Influences on Birth Rates

Family planning
programs India,
Thailand,
Bangladesh, etc.
Contraceptive
technology
Role of mass media

Radio/TV Soap Operas

("Twende na Wakati" in
1990s Tanzania, which
means "Let's Go with the
Times"

Government Billboard, Indonesia

Demographic
Transition Model

Stage one (preindustrial/preagricultural)

Crude birth/death rate high
Fragile, but stable, population
Stage two (improved agriculture
and medicine)
Lower death rates
Infant mortality rate falls
Natural increase very high
Stage three (attitudes change)
Indicative of richer developed
countries
Higher standards of
living/education
Crude birth rate finally falls
Stage four (low growth or Z.P.G.)
Crude birth and death rates low
Population stable
Populations aging
Stage five (declining)
Crude birth rates exceptionally low
death rates low
Population decreasing
Populations aging rapidly

Problems with the

Demographic Transition Model
based on European experience, assumes all
countries will progress to complete
industrialization and that this is key issue
many countries reducing growth rate
dramatically without increase in wealth or
industrial economies TV and family planning
seem to be at work

on the other hand, some countries stuck in

stage 2 or stage 3, particularly in Sub-Saharan
Africa and Middle East

Most Populous Cities (2012)

Population Pyramids
Population Pyramids quickly show
age distributions
demographic booms and busts
sex ratios
dependency ratios
Wide base depicts young
population; narrow base suggests
declining birth rates or growing
elderly population.

Population Dynamics

Cartograms
A cartogram is a map in which a
thematic mapping variable is used
to represent the extent of a location
instead of land area or distance.

Cartograms
Waldo Tobler (born 1930): Made the first
computer-generated cartogram.

American geographer and cartographer, Professor

Emeritus at the University of California, Dept of
Geography
Famous for: "Everything is related to
everything else, but near things are more
related to each other"

Overpopulation

Definition and Some Important Issues

1. Population Control

Thailand Success Story

Birth Control

2. Urbanization
3. Coastal Change
4. Population Impacts

Overpopulation

When consumption of
natural resources by
people outstrip the ability
of a natural region to
replace those natural
resources.

When the carrying

capacity of a natural
region is reached

1. Urbanization
Definition
Urbanization is a process of urban
growth. It leads to a greater
proportion of people being
concentrated into towns and
cities

In 2008 for the first time in history over 50% of the worlds
population lived in towns and cities.
Urbanization results in an increasing proportion of city dwellers
in contrast to those in the countryside
Urbanization is a worldwide process it began at different times
in different parts of the world and occurred at contrasting paces.

Causes of urbanization
1.
2.

Rural to urban migration

Natural Increase

Coastal Change
Structures and their impact to the beach profile
Breakwaters
Barriers
Sea Walls
Buildings and Houses

Rapid increase in population, especially in developing

countries, will lead to more coastal cities.

As coastal zones become more densely populated, coastal

water quality will suffer, wildlife will be displaced, and
shorelines will erode.

The appearance of coastlines and beach profiles will

significantly change over time.

Population Control
Means of controlling or
altering population
growth rate and/or
factors that can
influence population
size.

Population Control

Challenges
Manufacture/distribution
expense
Religion
Inequality of Sexes
Preference for male children
Female Infanticide

Thailand - an example of success

Annual population growth dropped from
3.3% in 1972 to 1.2% in 1995. This has
been more or less the stable rate.
Community-Based Family Planning Service
(CBFPS). Focused on wants and needs of
poor.

How did Thailand Accomplish

Demographic Transition?
Breaking taboos of contraception

Free contraceptives
Financial incentives
Reduced infant mortality due to infectious
diseases - clean water supply
Altered desired number of children
(from 8 to 3)

Meanwhile, in China
In China, population control is a political outcome
Women must receive birth coupons prior to
conception
Mass murders of girl babies
Abortions (even at 9 months gestation)
Women of reproductive age examined and
monitored

The Philippines: Learning from Thailand

Dr. Nibhon Debavalya, Thailands leading population expert, responds with a

parable about Thailand and the Philippines. (inquirer.net/9489/family-planning-inthailand-ph)

The Philippines: Learning from Thailand

Thailand was able to radically reduce its population
growth rate to 0.6 percent while the Philippines
inched down to 2.04 percent in the period 19702010.

During the period 1970-2008, Thailands GDP per

capita grew by 4.4 percent, while the Philippines
grew by 1.4 percent.
By 2008, Thailands total GDP was $273 billion while
the Philippines was $167 billion.

Population Growth - Optimistic

Growing prosperity will reduce desire for large
families.
Technology/communication will spread
information faster, making transition more rapid
than it occurred for more developed countries.

Fertility rates are dropping and populations are

stabilizing (except in Africa).

Population Growth - Pessimistic

Demographic trap:
poorer countries will
not become
developed enough for
birth rate to be
reduced, causing
population growth
rates to remain high.
Catastrophe will be
the only regulatory
control.

Jean Antoine
Condorcet (1743 1794)
predicted that innovation and
the resulting increased wealth
and choice it creates would
provide alternate foods and
resources in the future and lead
to fewer children per family and
improving societies: larger

populations are good because

they lead to more innovations
and ideas.
believed that society was
perfectible

Thomas Malthus on Population

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

Malthus, responding to
Condorcet, predicted
population would outrun
food supply - leading to a
decrease in food/person
His Assumptions:
Populations grow geometrically.
Food supply grows arithmetically.
Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

Food
2
4
8
16

Population
2
4
16
256

Population J-Curve
This graphs depicts the actual growth in human population
from the beginning of agriculture until 2000!

Population Impacts

Population and the

Environment
To put these two in context, consider the following equation:
where

I=PxAxT

I = environmental impact
P = the population size
A = affluence (or consumption)
T = effects of the technology used

People overpopulation relates the first term - P

Consumption overpopulation relates to the last two
terms - A and T.

Population and the

Environment
Population-influenced environmental problems:

Global Warming

Habitat Loss / Endangered Species

Resource Depletion
Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

Population, Affluence, and

Resource Consumption

Population, Affluence, and

Resource Consumption

Source: World Bank, 2012: siteresources.worldbank.org/

Technology, Energy Consumption, and

Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase in:
individual energy use over time: 3,000 kcal/person 300,000 kcal/person (each of us in the U.S. has the
equivalent of about 100 energy servants)

the power of technology to change the environment:

think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb.
the scope and severity of environmental impacts.

Individual Annual Energy Use (Goudie, 2006)