New Study Links Climate Change to Mounting Natural Disasters

MANILA, Philippines, 27 November 2015More frequent floods, storms, heat waves, and droughts are
connected to greater extremes in temperatures and rainfall, according to Global Increase in Climate-Related
Disasters, a new study from Independent Evaluation at the Asian Development Bank. In a global
analysis spanning the last four decades, the study shows that the rise in climate-related disasters is
linked not only to peoples increased exposure and vulnerability, but also to changes in temperature
and rainfall resulting from rising greenhouse gases.
The study, published as an ADB Economics Working Paper, is timely given the recent warnings by the
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other climate monitors that global
temperature is already halfway to the two degree warming threshold for limiting catastrophic climatic
impacts. Released just ahead of the United Nations climate change meetings in Paris in December,
these findings add fresh urgency to cutting emissions.
Three implications are inherent in these findings. First, climate impacts are not just concerns for the
distant future, but are already being felt. Second, heavy damages from climate-related disasters are
being incurred by all countries, rich and poor, although the death toll has been especially high among
the poor who are more likely to live in harms way, such as in flood-prone areas. And third, it is a
mistake to think that climate actionsuch as switching from dirty fossil fuels to cleaner renewable
sourceswill hold back economic growth.
Policymakers and economic advisors have long held the view that climate action is a drain on
economic growth, says Vinod Thomas, coauthor of the study and director general of Independent
Evaluation at ADB. But the reality is the opposite: the vast damage from climate-related disasters is
an increasing obstacle to economic growth and wellbeing.
The study finds that the frequency of intense climate-related disasters over the past four decades is
associated with population exposure, measured by population density and with peoples vulnerability
to these events, measured by their income levels. It also confirms the importance of climatic changes
in making hazards more extreme:deviations in precipitation are positively linked to disasters from
floods and storms.
The evidence is telling us that hazards of nature are increasingly turning into disasters because of
human action, says Ramon Lopezcoauthor of the study and professor of economics at the University
of Chile. We found that disasters are exacerbated by climatic impacts at the local level as well as by
climate change globally.
Disaster risk estimates in the study illustrate some potentially big impacts. For a country facing the
average of nearly one climate-related disaster a year, if CO2 concentrations continue to rise by the
current annual rate of 2 parts per million (or by 0.5%) from the already high 400 parts per million, that
would see a doubling of the frequency of floods and storms in 17 years. The three countries the study
reviewed at high risk of climate-related disasters, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, by one
definition, have on average seven of these episodes a year. Any further increases in CO2 would hit
these countries hard, as would be the case for other disaster-prone countries such as Bangladesh,
Costa Rica and Mauritius.
Scientific evidence has already established the association between greenhouse gas emissions and
changes in climatic conditions. The findings in this study go further by adding a connection between
climate change and the frequency of intense natural disastersafter taking into account the
contribution of density of population and peoples income.
As such, the study aims to focus attention on the human actions related to natural disasters. The

implication is that a big part of the actions for disaster risk reduction will have to be preventive in
nature, in addition to those that are reactive, such as relief and rebuilding efforts, saysLopez.
Prevention in turn will need to be in good measure to climate mitigation and climate adaptation.

The first half of this decade featured deadly climate-related disasters, among them the great floods in
Thailand in 2011, Hurricane Sandy in the United States in 2012, and Typhoon Haiyan in the
Philippines in 2013. The year 2014 was the earths warmest in 134 years of recorded history, and
2015 could well turn out to be even hotter. While scientists hesitate to link any one of these occurrence
to climate change, the association is compelling.
In the run-up to the Paris climate change meetings, a great deal of attention is focused on how much
countries must do to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. The relationship between climate
change and the frequency of intense natural disasters provides an immediate and tangible reason why
actions by countries and the global community must be urgent and decisive, says Thomas.
###
To download the ADB Economics Working Paper, visit: http://www.adb.org/publications/globalincrease-climate-related-disastersand click on the PDF.
About Independent Evaluation at the Asian Development Bank
Asian Development Bank's Independent Evaluation, reporting to the Board of Directors through the
Development Effectiveness Committee, contributes to development effectiveness by providing
feedback on ADB's policies, strategies, operations, and special concerns in Asia and the Pacific.
Media Inquiries:
Hans van Rijn
Independent Evaluation Department
Telephone: +63 2 632 5642
Email: hvanrijn@adb.org