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Global
Daily Update
Economic Indicators
FY13
FY14
Jul-Jun
3.7
Average CPI
Jul-Jun
7.4
4.1
8.6
M2 Growth
Jul-Jun
15.2
14.9
Exports
Jul-Jun
24.7
25.1
Imports
Jul-Jun
40.1
41.6
USD bn
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Dec14
Jan15
Feb15E
General
7.68%
5.82%
3.96%
4.30%
3.88%
3.79%
Remittances
Jul-Jun
13.9
15.8
6.47%
4.41%
1.08%
2.53%
2.13%
2.37%
Jul-Jun
2.4
2.9
8.84%
5.62%
5.89%
5.84%
5.74%
5.77%
8.98%
8.53%
8.54%
8.81%
8.09%
7.83%
Transport
5.43%
3.95%
-3.27%
-6.02%
-8.10%
-10.47%
8.49%
7.84%
7.26%
6.62%
6.42%
6.16%
Jul-Jun
8.2
5.8
as % of GDP
Fiscal deficit
Inflation Outlook
Source: SBP
Amidst slight recovery in international oil prices, the GoP is expected to adjust the prices of
petroleum products upwards w.e.f. Mar 0115. Moreover, historical trend analysis underpins
significant increase in Food & Non-Alcoholic group prices in March as compared to February
every year as demand for food picks up after the end of winter season. Further stimulus to
an increase in Food & Non-Alcoholic group stems from the direct linkage between fuel and
food prices, with the former all set to rise early next month.
Monetary Policy Expectations
We believe contained CPI inflation, along with muted growth in M2, has set the tone for
SBP to go ahead with its monetary easing stance and slash a further 50 basis points in the
upcoming monetary policy. Post announcement, the discount rate is expected to stand at
8% - its lowest level in the last nine years. While a decrease in policy rate can be expected
to drive the currently depressed private sector credit off-take up north, recent data
released by the State Bank suggest otherwise. Jan15 advances went up by a meager
0.07% MoM while private sector credit off-take went down 1.81% MoM in response to the
previous discount rate cut announced by the central bank on Jan 2415. The decline can be
attributed to banks focusing their advances towards investments in high yielding PIBs.
Board Meetings
Feb 2615
Feb 2615
Feb 2615
Feb 2715
Feb 2815
In the Federal Budget FY15, the GoP earmarked PKR 145bn to be raised through collection
of GIDC. Recall, in late 2014, Peshawar High Court had given a stay order against collection
of GIDC from industrial and CNG units, casting dark clouds over the governments plans to
finance its spending. However, as per recent updates, the National Assemblys Standing
Committee has approved the amended Gas Infrastructure Development Cess Bill 2014,
giving a legal cover to the tax collection for gas consumers. Given this development, the
government is unlikely to resort to additional borrowing that could have led to a growth in
M2 stock of the country.
Feb 2815
Mar 0415
17%
15%
15%
14%
13%
13%
Allied Bank
Apr 2914
Engro Fertilizers
Haris Ali
11%
12%
haris.ali@gslpk.com
9%
Source: SBP
Source: SBP
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-14
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-13
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-13
Jun-12
Jun-11
3%
Jun-10
5%
8%
Jun-09
7%
9%
Jun-08
10%
+92.21.3245.7543
Feb-11
11%
Jun-07
Mar
2614
AGMs
/ EOGM
M2 Growth
16%
Jun-06
AGMs / EOGM
Pakistan Research
Daily Update