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ApproximateValue:
Methodology

Averysimplerankingsystem
PostedbyDougonMay8,2006
ReggieBush:punter

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My friend Joe Bryant says that the BCS bowl matchups are like getting a shrimp cocktail at Morton's
Steakhouse. Sure, it's better than what you normally eat, but at the same time it's frustrating and
disappointing because you can see a bunch of far preferable alternatives right there in front of your eyes. I Categories
tendtoagree.Nonetheless,itisnotinanywayanexaggerationtosaythattheBCSrevivedmyinterestin
collegefootball.Notbecauseofthematchupsthesystemhasproduced,butbecauseitgavemeanexcuseto Announcements
ApproximateValue
learnsomeveryinterestingmathematics.
Best/WorstEver
Asyouprobablyknow,theparticipantsintheBCSchampionshipgamearedeterminedinpartbyacollection
ofcomputerrankings.Thosecomputerrankingsareimplementingalgorithmsthat"work"becauseofvarious
mathematicaltheorems.Atsomepoint,I'mgoingtousethisblogtowritedowneverythingIknowaboutthe
topic (which by the way is a drop in the bucket compared to what many other people know I am not an
expert,justafan)inlanguagethatasufficientlyinterestedandpatientnonmathematiciancanunderstand.
I'llstartthatofftodaybydescribingoneofthemostbasicrankingalgorithms.
Theideaistodefineasystemof32equationsin32unknowns.Thesolutiontothatsystemwillbecollection
of32numbersandthosenumberswillserveastheratingsofthe32NFLteams.DefineR_indasIndianapolis'
rating,R_pitasPittsburgh'srankings,andsoon.Thosearetheunknowns.Theequationsare:




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One equation for each team. The number just after the equal sign is that team's average point margin. In
plainEnglish,thefirstequationsays:
The Colts' rating should equal their average point margin (which was +12), plus the average of their
opponents'ratings

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Soeveryteam'sratingistheiraveragepointmargin,adjustedupordowndependingonthestrengthoftheir
opponents. Thus an average team would have a rating of zero. Suppose a team plays a schedule that is,
overall,exactlyaverage.Thenthesumofthetermsinparentheseswouldbezeroandtheteam'sratingwould
be its average point margin. If a team played a tougherthanaverage schedule, the sum of the terms in
parentheseswouldbepositiveandsoateam'sratingwouldbebiggerthanitsaveragepointmargin.
Archives
ItwouldbeeasytofindtheColts'ratingifweknewalltheiropponents'ratings.Butwecan'tfigurethoseout
until we've figured out their opponents' ratings, and we can't figure those out until. . ., you get the idea.

November2011
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Everyone'sratingessentiallydependsoneveryoneelse'srating.
So how do you actually find the set of values that solves this system of equations? In high school you
probablylearnedhowtosolve2by2andmaybe3by3systemsofequationsbyputtingsomenumbersinto
a matrix, doing some complicated operations on that matrix, and then reading the solutions off the new
matrix. Same thing here, except you've got a 32by32 matrix instead of a 2by2 matrix. If you wanted
collegefootballrankings,it'dbe120by120.Irecommendusingacomputer.
It'smoreinstructive,though,tosolveitadifferentway.We'llstartbygivingeveryoneaninitialrating,which
isjusttheiraveragepointmargin.I'llusetheColtsasanexample.Theirinitialratingis+12.0.Nowlookat
theaverageoftheiropponents'intialratings:




















Those average 1.2, so the Colts' new rating will be 12.0 1.2, which is 10.8. So after this calculation the
Colts'ratingchangedfrom+12to+10.8.Butmeanwhile,everyotherteam'sratingchangedaswell,sowe
havetodothewholethingoveragainwiththenewratings.Onthesecondpass,theColtsschedulelooksabit
different:




















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Theaverageoftheseis1.1,sotheColts'opponentsaren'tquiteasbadastheylookedatfirst.Indy's new
rating is 12.0 1.1, which is 10.9. Uh oh! Everyone else's ratings just changed again, so we've got to run
throughthesameprocedureagain.Andagain.Andagain.Andeventuallythenumbersstopchanging.When
that happens, you know you've arrived at the solution. Take a look at the Colts schedule with the final OtherSources
rankingsandyou'llbeabletoconvinceyourselfthatthismethodworks:
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Howtoreadthistable:inweek1,theColtsbeattheRavensby17.TheRavenswere,allthingsconsidered,
1.83pointsworsethanaverage,sotheColtsgota"score"of171.83,or15.17forthatgame.In week 2,
theColtsbeattheJaguarsby7.Jacksonvillewas4.76pointsbetterthanaverage,sotheColtsgetan11.76
forthatgame.Averagetheirscoresforeachgameandyou'vegottheirrating.Thebottomlinesays:
The Colts' won their games by an average of 12 points each. Their opponents were, on average, 1.2 points
worsethanaverage.ThustheColtswere10.8pointsbetterthanaverage.

Let'sexaminesomeofthefeaturesofthissystem:
ThenumbersitspitsoutareeasytointerpretifTeamA'sratingis3biggerthanTeamB's,this
meansthatthesystemthinksTeamAis3pointsbetterthanTeamB.Withmostrankingalgorithms,
thenumbersthatcomeouthavenorealmeaningthatcanbetranslatedintoanEnglishsentence.
Withthissystem,theunitsareeasytounderstand.
Itisapredictivesystemratherthanaretrodictivesystemthisisaveryimportantdistinction.
Youcanusetheseratingstoanswerthequestion:whichteamisstronger?I.e.whichteamismore
likelytowinagametomorrow?Oryoucanusethemtoanswerthequestion:whichoftheseteams
accomplishedmoreinthepast?Somesystemsanswerthefirstquestionsmoreaccuratelytheyare
calledpredictivesystems.Othersanswerthelatterquestionmoreaccuratelytheyarecalled
retrodictivesystems.Asitturnsout,thisisaprettygoodpredictivesystem.Forthereasons
describedbelow,itisnotagoodretrodictivesystem.
ItweightsallgamesequallyeveryfootballfanknowsthattheColts'week17gameagainst
Arizonawasameaninglessexhibition,butthealgorithmgivesitthesameweightasalltherestofthe
games.
Itweightsallpointsequally,andthereforeignoreswinsandlossestakealookattheColts
seasonchartabove.Ifyoutakeaway10pointsinweek3andgivethemback10pointsinweek4,
you'vejustchangedtheirrecord,butyouhaven'tchangedtheirratingatall.Ifyoutakeaway10
pointsinweek3andgiveback20pointsinweek4,youhavemadetheirrecordworsebuttheirrating
better.Mostfootballfansputahighpremiumonthefewpointsthatmoveyoufroma3pointlossto
a3pointwinandalmostnoweightonthemanypointsthatmoveyoufroma20pointwintoa50
pointwin.
Itiseasilyimressedbyblowoutvictoriesthissystemthinksa50pointwinanda10pointloss
ispreferabletotwo14pointwins.Mostfanswoulddisagreewiththatassessment.
Itisslightlybiasedtowardoffensivemindedteamsbecauseitconsiderspointmarginsinstead
ofpointratios,ittreatsa5030winasmoreimpressivethana170win.Again,thisisanassessment
thatmostfanswoulddisagreewith.
Thisshouldgowithoutsaying,butI'llsayitanyway.Thesystemdoesnottakeintoaccount
injuries,weatherconditions,yardagegained,theimportanceofthegame,whetheritwasaMonday
Nightgameornot,whetherthequarterback'sgrandomotherwassick,oranythingelsebesidespoints
scoredandpointsallowed.

Thissystem,likeallsystems,hassomedrawbacks,butithasthevirtueofsimplicity.Itiseasytounderstand
anditproducesnumbersthatareeasytointerpret.Thatisnottobesneezedat.
Furthermore,mostofitsdrawbackshaveeasyfixes.Forexample,whencomputingateam'sinitialrating
i.e. their average point margin you can tweak the individual game margins to make the initial rating
"smarter."Onewaytodothatistocapthemarginofvictoryat21points,or14pointsorwhateveryouwant.
Youcanexplcitlyincorporatewinsandlossesbygivingthewinningteamabonusof3pointsor10pointsor
howevermanyyouwant.Totakeittotheextreme,youcouldsimplydefineallwinstobeonepointwinsand
all losses to be onepoint losses. This removes margin of victory from the scene completely. As usual, when
youtweakthemethodtostengthenitsweaknesses,youalsoweakenitsstrengths.Inparticular,ifyouusea
modifiedmarginofvictory,thenumbersdon'thaveasniceaninterpretation.
I'll close with some rankings. Here are the NFL's 2005 regular season rankings according to the original
method:




































Here they are if every win of less than 7 points is counted as a 7point win and if the margin of victory is
cappedat21.






































Heretheyarewithmarginofvictoryremovedaltogether:





































ADDENDUM:Ineedtoclarifyonethingaboutthesimpleratingsystem:itsnotmysystem.Ididntinvent
it.Infact,itsoneofthosesystemsthathasbeenaroundforsolongthatnooneinparticulariscreditedwith
havingdevelopedit(asfarasIknowanyway).PeoplewerealmostcertainlyusingitbeforeIwasborn.Ilike
thesystemanduseitalotbecauseitsfairlyeasytointerpretandunderstand,andbecausethemathbehind
itisnifty.ButIjustrealizedthatIhadneverbeenclearenoughaboutthefactthatitsnotmysystem.Ijust
useit.

Relatedposts:
2007Standings:SimpleRankingSystem
Anotherrankingsystem
TheSimpleRatingSystem:2007OffensesandDefenses
Trivialobservationsfromthesimpleratingsystem
Anotherratingsystem:maximumlikelihood
This entry was posted on Monday, May 8th, 2006 at 4:06 am and is filed under BCS, Statgeekery.
YoucanfollowanyresponsestothisentrythroughtheRSS2.0feed.Bothcommentsandpingsare
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LastreplywasSeptember27,2011
1.

Stocks
ViewNovember29,2010
YesIhaveexcel

2.

NeilPaine
ViewNovember29,2010
Here'savideoImadeforChasealongtimeago,outlininghowtodoSRSinExcel2007:
http://www.screencast.com/users/SportsReference/folders/PFR/media/cea8d1e3ed91
431fa0df1336c03b1268
Ihavetowarnyou,it'sprobablyprettyconfusing.Butitmighthelp.
Also, you should check out Wayne Winston's book Mathletics, which talks specifically
abouthowtocalculateratings(includingSRSlikesystems)inExcel.
http://www.amazon.com/MathleticsGamblersEnthusiastsMathematics
Basketball/dp/069113913X

3.

Stocks
ViewNovember29,2010
HeythanksmanthatactuallyhelpsalotIhadtowatchitafewtimesbutIseewhatyour
cooking.

Bythewaywhatsupwiththemarginnumbersonsheetonewhereitslistsallthegames.
Itlookslikeyousubtracted1.35or.65fromthemarginofvictoryofeachgame.
4.

NeilPaine
ViewNovember30,2010
That'sprobablysomekindofhomefieldadvantagetermshouldbearound23ppg(you
subtractitfromthehometeam'sscoremarginandaddittotheroadteam'smargin).

5.

Stocks
ViewDecember4,2010
Heyman
WhatstheformulayouuseforSOSIcan'tseeitclearlyenoughinthevideo.Icanonly
get SOS by doing manually thats ok for football but ain't going to work very good for
othersports.
BythewayIgotthatbookMathleticsinterestingread.

6.

MattieShoes
ViewDecember4,2010
SOS is the average SRS of a team's opponents. So if team's SOS is 1, it means on
average, their opponents were about 1 point above average. It works fine for other
sports.

7.

Stocks
ViewDecember4,2010
YaIknowIwanttouseitforothersportsImenttheactualformulaheusedintheexcel
videolike
=average(if(sheet!$D$2:$C$207=A2,sheet$D$2:$C$207))
Thatswhatitlookedlikeinthevideobutitwastoosmalltoseeandwhenyouzoomits
toodestortedtoreadandI'vebeenatitfordaysbutIjustcantfigureitout.

8. BillRussellsAllStarTeammatesBackPicks:FleetingSportsThoughts
ViewDecember18,2010
[...]RussellsteammateswhomadeanAllStarteam(AllNBAteaminparentheses).Ive
includedtheteamsSRSaftertheyearas[...]
9. PackersheadedforadubioushistoricaldistinctionCourtsideAnalyst
ViewDecember21,2010
[...] keeps a nifty power ranking index they call Simple Rating System. Actually,
severalofthesportsreference.comsiteskeepsuchastatistic[...]
10. MattCassellandthe2010NFLMVPBackPicks:FleetingSportsThoughts
ViewDecember22,2010
[...]letslookatthisclaimmoreclosely.The2008PatriotshadanofffensiveSRSof2.3
(11thintheleague)againstaweakschedule(2.4).Theyscored25.6ppgandaveraged
5.3[...]
11. TheWorstPlayoffTeamEverBackPicks:FleetingSportsThoughts
ViewJanuary12,2011
[...] at an embarrassing 79, the Seahawks are worse than their record would suggest.
AccordingtotheSimpleRatingSystem,theSeahawkswerethethirdworstteaminallof
football.JeffSagarinsratingshadthem[...]
12. CFBBlogatSportsReferenceBlogArchiveAuburnsPlaceAmongBCSChampions
ViewJanuary13,2011
[...] them to other champions from the past, and the 2010 Auburn Tigers are no
exception.UsingtheSimpleRatingSystem(SRS),letstakealookatwherethenewest
titleholdersstandamongBCS[...]
13. BytheNumbersDidtheSeahawksImprovein2010?|TheBlueBirdHerd
ViewFebruary2,2011
[...]whichratesteamsbaseduponTotalPointsMarginadjustedupordownforstrength
ofopponent,asoutlinedatProFootballReference.com,todeterminehowtheSeahawks
faredin2010comparedto[...]
14. ThesimplerankingsystemaPerlimplementation.CodeandFootball
ViewApril10,2011
[...]theSimpleRankingSysteminPerl.TheSimpleRankingSystemisdescribedonPro
Football Reference here. Its important because its a simple perhaps the simplest

modelofthe[...]
15. IssueswiththeSimpleRankingSystem.CodeandFootball
ViewApril12,2011
[...] spoken about the simple ranking system before, and given code to calculate it. I
wanttosetupaMoremark,andtalkissues[...]
16. ThesimplerankingsystemonCPAN,andmoreCodeandFootball
ViewApril21,2011
[...] been quiet a while, because Ive been a little busy. A version of the simple ranking
system, favored by Doug Drinen, is now coded as a CPAN module. CPAN, the
ComprehensivePerlArchive[...]
17. 72WinBulls:TheBestEver|JustBullsin
ViewJune18,2011
[...]pointsabove/belowaverage,wherezeroisaverage.Youcangetafullexplanationof
the rating at ProFootballReference. Without getting too technical, this rating basically
showshowmuchateamkickedassandtook[...]
18. DetroitLionsWontNeedABigStepForwardToShowMarkedImprovementDetroit
JockCity|ADetroitSportsblog
ViewJuly6,2011
[...]SimpleRatingSystem[...]
19. WisconsinFootballPlayedUpToCompetition?BadgerofHonor|AWisconsinBadgers
blog
ViewJuly19,2011
[...] Bad teams (91120 in SportsReference/College Footballs Simple Rating System)
[...]
20. WisconsinFootballPlayedUpToCompetition?|WisconsinNews
ViewJuly19,2011
[...] Bad teams (91120 in SportsReference/College Footballs Simple Rating System)
[...]
21.

Matias
ViewJuly26,2011
Ijustpickedup"Mathletics"butI'mhavinganissuewiththeaverageifinexcel.Iampoor
atexcelsoifanyonecouldguidemeonhowtouseaverageiftocomeupwiththeMOV.I
thankyouinadvancefortakingtimetohelpme!
Cheers!

22.

Matias
ViewJuly26,2011
thanksforyourhelpbydeletingmypost.AllIwantedwasalittlehelp.

23. RushTheCourtBlogArchiveExperiencevs.Talent:WhichisWorthMoretoElite
Teams?
ViewJuly26,2011
[...] found that there is a correlation between SRS (Simple Rating System, a metric of
successshowinghowfarabovethescoringmarginmeanateamplays)ofeliteteams[...]
24. zephyrs,mlbwrapup,previewwedjuly27dallymlbblog
ViewJuly27,2011
[...] East Detailed Standings Explanation of Simple Rating System (SRS) or hold your
mouseovertheheader[...]
25. TheSaintswerenotbetterwithoutReggieBushinthelineup|WhoDatReport
ViewJuly29,2011
[...]finalrecord,and(2)theopponentsDefensiveSRS,orSimpleRatingSystem,whichis
PFRs quickanddirty measurement of team quality. SRS is complicated to explain, but
easytounderstand:anaverageteamshouldhaveanSRSof0,[...]
26. PastAsPrologue:WhatCanWeReallyExpectOnDefensein2011?|SportsFeedr
ViewAugust18,2011
[...]absurd.Aneveneasier,shorthandwaytovisualizetheimprovementsforeachteam
isusingProFootballReferencesDefensiveSimpleRatingSystem.(Youcanclickthelink
toreadabouttheSRSgenerally.)Foreachteam,herearetheDSRSscores[...]
27. PastAsPrologue:WhatCanWeReallyExpectOnDefensein2011?|TexanFans
ViewAugust18,2011
[...]absurd.Aneveneasier,shorthandwaytovisualizetheimprovementsforeachteam
isusingProFootballReferencesDefensiveSimpleRatingSystem.(Youcanclickthelink

toreadabouttheSRSgenerally.)Foreachteam,herearetheDSRSscores[...]
28. NFL:some2010statsCodeandFootball
ViewSeptember11,2011
[...] by 16 to get predicted wins for 2011. SRS, MOV, and SOS are Pro Football
References simple ranking system metrics. SOS is a factor in playoff wins, along with
previousplayoffexperience.Homefield[...]
29. Whichteamsportsaremostorleastdependentonluck?Quora
ViewSeptember27,2011
[...][...]

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