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(Photo by N.

Morita)

Thailands Political and Economic


Situation and its Regional Integration
November 2015

Yasushi Negishi
County Director
Thailand Resident Mission

11/2015

Political & Economic Situation

Political & Economic Situation

Reform before election


Slowing economy
Structural issues

11/2015

Regional Integration

Thailands Opportunity

AEC - trade & investment


Infrastructure deficits
GMS Program

Transport infrastructure
Border Area Development
Investment Promotion

Thailands political transition


Dec 2013
Feb 2014

May 2014

Sep 2014
Aug 2015
Sep 2015

11/2015

PM Yingluck dissolved Parliament due to


the protests since ruling party submitted legal bills
General elections disrupted.
Later Constitution Court nullified the elections.
Protesters called for Reform before Election
Ms Yinglucks dismissal from PM
Coup dtat - Roadmap to democracy announced
PM Prayut and Interim cabinet appointed
Interim cabinet reshuffled
Draft constitution rejected by Reform Council

Slide from Ministry of Foreign Affairs

11/2015

National Reform Agenda is being discussed and


implemented through legislation and govt approval

Inclusive economic growth


Education reform
Tax reform
Access to finance
Strengthen competitiveness for regional integration
Good governance, anti-corruption

11/2015

GDP growth rate affected by political turmoil while


inflation is in negative range due to low oil price

11/2015

Lowering capacity utilization and


slow private sector investment

11/2015

Consumer confidence index remains over 70s,


export growth rates are weak since 2013

11/2015

Export growth rates are weak with some positive


prospects led by US and CLMV!

11/2015

11/2015

Tourists arrivals affected by political turmoil in 2014,


but recovering in 2015 by Chinese/ASEAN tourists
30,000,000

25,000,000

Africa
Middle East

20,000,000

Oceania
South Asia
The Americas

15,000,000

Europe
EA others
Korea

10,000,000

Japan
China
ASEAN
5,000,000

2007

11/2015

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 JanOct

ADBs Updated Outlook on Thai Economy


as of September 2015

11/2015

Structural Issue 1: Lack of public sector


investment due to political situation

11/2015

Structural Issue 2: Majority live in slowergrowing regions and needs opportunities


Region

Bangkok and vicinity

GRP in 2013
(million Thai baht)

Population
('000 people)

GRP per Capita

GRP Growth
19812013

5,723,246

15,203

376,463

5.5

Central

748,582

3,131

239,078

5.8

Eastern

2,327,906

5,406

430,584

7.6

Faster-growing regions

8,799,734

23,740

370,668

5.9

Northeastern

1,403,267

18,828

74,532

5.7

Northern

1,135,633

11,557

98,268

4.4

Southern

1,114,868

9,044

123,270

4.6

Western

456,530

3,586

127,294

4.3

4,110,298

43,015

95,556

5.2

12,910,038

66,755

193,395

5.3

Slower-growing regions

Thailand

GRP = gross regional product.

11/2015

Structural Issue 3: Thailand is lagging on


measures of innovation such as R&D
R&D as % share of GDP

Thai private sector's share of investment in total R&D is around 35-45%,


vs. 77% for Korea, 76% for Taiwan, 66% for Singapore
Source: NESDB

11/2015

Regional Integration

Political & Economic Situation

Reform before election


Slowing economy
Structural issues

11/2015

Regional Integration

Thailands Opportunity

AEC - trade & investment


Infrastructure deficits
GMS program

Transport infrastructure
Border Area Development
Investment Promotion

AEC 2015 facilitates trade and


investment
Import tariffs

Foreign ownership

Mutual recognition

among ASEAN-6
have been zero in
most items,
whereas those
among CLMV are
reduced to zero in
2015 with some
reservation items.

up to 70%
shareholding is
allowed in service
sector
such as retail and
distribution
industries.

for eight
professionals was
agreed by ASEAN
countries in 2008.
Those are medical
doctor, dentist,
nurse, engineer,
architect, registered
surveyor
accountant, and
tourism specialist.

11/2015

Infrastructure deficits in ASEAN


Roads
Railways
Electrification
Access to clean water

ASEAN
10 Km
0.25 Km
72%
86%

OECD
200 Km
5 Km
99.8%
99.6%

Note
per 1000 persons
per 1000 persons
of each group's population
of each group's population

In terms of infrastructure coverage and quality, Global


Competiveness Report ranks the CLMV countries fall far behind.
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia

11/2015

2
25
48
56

Viet Nam
Lao PDR
Philippines
Cambodia
Myanmar

82
84
91
101
141

Master Plan for ASEAN Connectivity - physical,


institutional, human to human connectivity

11/2015

ASEAN Highway

11/2015

Singapore-Kunming Rail Link (SKRL)

11/2015

GMS, IMT-GT, and BIMP-EAGA are


building blocks for MPAC

ASEAN
BIMP-EAGA
BIMSTEC
CAREC
GMS
IMT-GT
PIF
SAARC

Association of Southeast Asian Nations


Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area
Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation
Greater Mekong Subregion
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Growth Triangle
Pacific Islands Forum
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

11/2015

GMS Program
The Greater Mekong Subregion
(GMS) is a natural economic
area bound together by the
Mekong River, covering 2.6
million square kilometers.

The GMS countries are


Cambodia, the People's Republic
of China (PRC, specifically
Yunnan Province and Guangxi
Zhuang Autonomous Region),
Lao People's Democratic
Republic (Lao PDR), Myanmar,
Thailand, and Viet Nam.

11/2015

GMS Regional Investment Framework


Implementation Plan for 2014-2018
Identifies 92 priority
investment/TA
projects across
sectors
Estimated total
investment amount is
over $30 billion

90% of the total


investment amount is
in the transport sector

11/2015

Special committees have been established


under some working groups.
1. GMS Business Forum established in 2000.
2. Mekong Tourism Coordinating Office established in 2006.
3. GMS Freight Transport Association established in 2012.
4. Greater Mekong Railways Association established in 2014.
5. GMS Regional Power Trade Coordination Committee is
working to establish the GMS Regional Power Coordination
Center in 2015.
11/2015

GMS transport projects related to Thailand


Chiang KhongHouayxay
Mekong Bridge
completed

MyawaddyKawkareik road
connection improved

Thai-Cambodia
railway connection
being completed

11/2015

Cambodia Mekong
(Tsubasa) Bridge
completed

Thailands Opportunity

Political & Economic Situation

Reform before election


Slowing economy
Structural issues

11/2015

Regional Integration

Thailands Opportunity

AEC - trade & investment


Infrastructure deficits
GMS Program

Transport infrastructure
Border Area Development
Investment Promotion

Thailand economic policies in response


to changing external environment
External Environment
- Slowing down of the Chinese economy
- Ongoing regional integration
Measures
- Transport infrastructure investment
- Border area development
- Investment incentives for priority industries

11/2015

Transport Infrastructure Projects


1. Railways
- Meter Gauge Routes Double Tracking
- Standard Gauge Routes
(1) Nong-Khai Koraj Laem Chabang
(2) Chiang Khong Denchai Ban Phachi
2. Urban Public Transport
- 10 Mass Rapid Transit Routes
3. Roads
- 3 Motorways
- Highway expansion for 4 lanes
4. Ports
- Improve 5 main Ports : Ang Thong, Chumpon, Yala, Songkhla, Rayong
5. Airports
- Improve 5 main Airports : Trak, Phuket, Yala, Don Mueng, and Suvarnabhumi

Total 2 trillion baht

11/2015

Railways project with Chinese


government is under negotiation

11/2015

Border Area Development: BOI grants


investment incentives to the specific industries

11/2015

The government is considering 10 targeted


industries for more investment promotion
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

next-generation cars;
smart electronics;
affluent medical and wellness tourism;
agriculture and biotechnology;
food;
robotics for industry;
logistics and aviation;
biofuels and bio-chemicals;
digital; and
medical.

Cf. 10 Priority Industries for Investment Promotion announced in


January 2013: (1) Basic infrastructure and logistics, (2) Basic industry, (3)
Medical device and scientific equipment, (4) Alternative energy and
environmental services, (5) Services that support industrial sector, (6) Advance
core technologies (7) Food and agricultural processing industry, (8) Hospitality &
Wellness, (9) Automotive and other transport equipment, (10) Electric and
electrical appliances
11/2015

ADBs support on ASEAN connectivity


Support regional cooperation programs such as ASEAN,
GMS, IMT-GT, and BIMP-EAGA
Provide financing to country and regional projects and
private sector (financial needs for Southeast Asias
infrastructure is estimated $60 billion per year)
Recycle regions savings to its own investment needs by
developing capacity of public sector in environment,
resettlement, procurement, government finance, and
capital market development

11/2015

Thank You

www.adb.org
www.adb.org
11/2015

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