17/10/2015

Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

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Home>Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria
[1]

DovS.Zakheim[2]
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ItappearsthatasignificantportionoftheWashingtonpolicycommunityisdismissingRussiasVladimirPutineitherasmerely
atactician,ratherthanastrategist,orasPresidentObamawouldhaveit,afoolwhohasinjectedhisforcesintoaquagmire.Neitherassertion
reflectstherealitythatisRussiaspositionintheMiddleEasttoday.
WhileeveryoneacknowledgesthatPutinwantstoretainRussiaspresenceinSyria,fewrealizethatMoscowisinaconsiderablystrongerposition
intheMiddleEastthantheSovietUnioneverwas.Certainly,SyriawasnottheonlyfriendofCommunistMoscow.SaddamHusseinlongenjoyeda
closerelationshipwiththeSoviets,whobackedhimtothehiltrightuptothedaytheUSSRcollapsed.
Ontheotherhand,relationswithIranwerenotparticularlyclose,evenafterthefalloftheovertlyantiCommunistShah.Duringthecourseofthe
IranIraqWar,MoscowssupportforSaddambecameincreasinglyovert,withtheSovietseventuallyprovidingactivesupporttoIraquntilthewars
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17/10/2015

Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

endin1989.TheSovietUnionsrelationswithEgyptwereevenworseAnwarSadathadexpelled20,000Sovietmilitaryadvisorsin1972after
whichCairoallieditselffirmlywiththeWest.Finally,despiteitsrecognitionofIsraelsoonafteritdeclaredindependence,Moscowbrokeoff
relationswiththeJewishstateafterthe1967WarandneverreestablishedthemduringtheremainingyearsoftheUSSRsexistence.
Thesituationisfardifferenttoday.Tobeginwith,IranandRussiaarenowBasharAssadsprimarybulwarks,bothofthemdeterminedtopreserve
anAlawiregime,ifnotAssadhimself.RussiamaintainsitscordialrelationswithIraq,whicharebecomingincreasinglystrongerasIraqcontinuesto
fallunderTehransinfluence.RussiahasstrengtheneditstieswithEgypt,botheconomicallyandinwhatbothPutinandthegovernmentof
PresidentAbdelFatehalSisicallthefightagainstterrorism.Thetwopresidentshaveexchangedstatevisitsoverthepasttwoyears.
Lastly,RussiahasexcellenttieswiththemostpowerfulstateintheMiddleEast,namelyIsrael.MoscowandJerusalemhavebecomeincreasingly
close.Whenhewasforeignminister,AvigdorLibermanwasafrequentflyertoMoscowandcontinuestomaintainadirectlinetoPutin.Aswith
Egypt,tradebetweenthetwocountriescontinuestoincrease,includingtradeinarmaments.Indeed,JerusalemissosensitivetoMoscowsdesires
thatitcutoffmilitarysalestoGeorgiaduringthe2008RussoGeorgianconflictandhasnotrenewedthemeversince.Indeed,thereseemedtobe
sometruthtoallegationsthatIsraelhadsupplieddatalinkcodestoRussiatodisableGeorgiandronespriortothe2008war.Israelhasalso
hesitatedtoselldronesorotherarmstoUkraine,specificallyasaresultofPutinspersonalrequesttoPrimeMinisterBenjaminNetanyahu.
AllofthesedevelopmentsexplainwhyPutinisinamuchstrongerpositionregardingRussiasinterventioninSyriathanmightotherwisehavebeen
thecase.IrananditsLebanesepuppetHezbollahareprovidingbootsonthegroundinsupportofAssadRussianforcesarereputedlyjoining
them,inadditiontoMoscowsairstrikesagainstantiAssadrebelforces.IraqhasjoinedwithRussiaandIranincreatingacoordinationcenterin
Baghdad.Egypt,foritspart,hasopenlysupportedRussianinterventioninSyria.AsEgypt'sForeignMinisterSamehShoukrystated[4] justtwodays
afterRussialauncheditsfirstairstrikesagainsttheSyrianopposition,"Russia'sentrance,givenitspotentialandcapabilities,issomethingweseeis
goingtohaveaneffectonlimitingterrorisminSyriaanderadicatingit.
Lastly,andsignificantly,duetoNetanyahusvisittoMoscowpriortothefirstRussianairstrikes,thetwoleadersagreeduponwhatNetanyahu
termedajointmechanismtoassuredeconflictionbetweentheoperationsofIsraeliandRussianforces.Ineffect,theagreementgaveMoscowa
freehandinSyria,whileIsraelwouldnotfaceanyRussianobjectionstoitsretaliatingagainstHezbollahorantiAssadforceslaunchedfromSyrian
territory.
PutinhasessentiallycoveredallhisflanksintheMiddleEast,otherthanJordanandtheGulfstates,butnonearelikelytohaveanynegative
impactuponhisproAssadintervention.Jordanhasstudiouslyavoidedgettingenmeshedinthewarandhasinsteadfocusedonmaintainingorder
inthefaceofaninfluxofamillionSyrianrefugees.WhiletheGulfstatesarestillprovidingfundstotheSyrianopposition,theyarethemselves
caughtupintheYemeniconflict.Inparticular,SaudiArabia,themostpowerfulsouthernGulfstate,isinnopositiontodomuchabouttheRussian
intervention.Itiscaughtupinaquagmireofitsown,inYemen,facesanincreasinglychallengingfiscalcrisis,andmayalsobewrackedby
dissensionwithintheroyalfamily.
Finally,SyriamaynotprovetobethequagmirethatPresidentObamaseemstohopeitwillbe.UnlikeAfghanistan,wheretheSovietsfaced
oppositionfrommostAfghans,regardlessofethnicbackground,PutinknowsthattheAlawicommunity,whichcomprisessometenpercentofthe
population,willbackhimtothehilt,sinceitsverysurvivalmayotherwisebethreatenedbytheSyriasmajoritySunniArabs.SotoowillSyrias
dwindlingChristianandDruzeminorities,whichlongwereprotectedbytheAssadfamilyandwholikewisehavemuchtofearfromboththeIslamic
State(IS)andthealNusrafrontthatislinkedtoAlQaeda.Finally,theSyrianKurds,whohaveinflictedthemostdamageonIslamicStateforces,
certainlywouldpreferaweakenedAssadtoIslamistforcesofanykindrulingfromDamascus.
Putinhasevery,ifnotmore,reasontofeartheISthandoesAmerica.RussianMuslimsarejoiningISforcesingreaternumbersthanthoseofthe
UnitedStates.TherestiveMuslimrepublicsinsideRussiaarefertilegroundforIslamicStateexpansion,whichisattheheartofIStheologyand
policy.AtsomepointPutinmayturnhisforcesagainsttheminSyria,buthefirsthastoensurethattheAlawisremaininpowerelsewhereinthat
country.
Insum,itappearsthatVladimirPutinhasafarbetterhandleontheMiddleEastthanhisAmericancounterpart.Hispositionisstrongerthanitever
wasundertheSoviets.Russiasincreasedpresencehasenhanced,notdiminished,itsinfluenceintheregion.Heisseenasstandingbyhisallies,
tothepointofcommittinghumanandmaterialresourcestodefendthem.
WithforcesactivelyengagedinonthegroundinSyria,aswellasairpowerbasedthereandmissilethatcanbe,andhavebeen,launchedfrom
outsidethecountry,heisinapositiontolaunchanattackontheIslamicStateoncethepreservationofanAlawiregimeisassured.
Inthemeantime,Washingtonwringsitshands,issuesschoolmarmishreprimandstoMoscowthatRussiablithelyignores,cannotevenreachany
sortofarrangementwiththeRussiansthatwouldpermitcreationofaviablesafezoneforSyrianrefugees,andhasfailedtodevelopapractical
programtosupporttheSyrianopposition.Crucially,Americacontinuestobeseenasabandoningitsfriendswhetherlookingtheotherwayasthe
Shahfell,callingfortheremovalofHosniMubarak,overridingIsraeliapprehensionaboutthetermsoftheIrandeal,orcontemplatingwithdrawal
fromAfghanistandespitePresidentAshrafGhanispleastothecontraryintheirtimeofneed.Itisnotaprettypicture.Unlessthereisa
turnaroundinAmericanpolicy,whethertowardreachinganunderstandingwithRussiaregardingSyriasfuturegovernance,providingmorethan
rhetoricalreassurancetoIsraelthatIranwillneveracquireanuclearcapability,andensuringacontinuingandmeaningfulmilitarypresencein
Afghanistan,thatpicturecanonlygetworse.
DovS.Zakheimwastheundersecretaryofdefense(comptroller)andchieffinancialofficeroftheU.S.DepartmentofDefensefrom2001to2004.
HeisvicechairmanoftheCenterfortheNationalInterestandservesontheAdvisoryCouncilofTheNationalInterest.
Tags
Russia[5] Putin'sStrategy[6] Syria[7]
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Security[8]
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SourceURL(retrievedonOctober17,2015):http://nationalinterest.org/feature/yesputindoeshavestrategysyria14084?page=show
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[1]http://nationalinterest.org/feature/yesputindoeshavestrategysyria14084
[2]http://nationalinterest.org/profile/dovszakheim
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[4]http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/03/ukmideastcrisissyriaegyptidUKKCN0RX0VZ20151003
[5]http://nationalinterest.org/tag/russia
[6]http://nationalinterest.org/tag/putinsstrategy
[7]http://nationalinterest.org/tag/syria
[8]http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security

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