c

Debt Valuationc
c

In the enterprise model of valuation, the firm's equity value is calculated by

subtracting the value of the firm's debt from the enterprise value. Debt valuation then
becomes an important component of a valuation of the firm's equity. c

A company's debt is valued by calculating the payoffs that debt holders can expect to
receive, taking into account the risk of default. The default risk is addressed by
considering the probability of default and the amount that could be recovered in that
event. For modeling purposes, one may assume that the cash flow from the
recovered amount is realized at the end of the year of default. c

Debt valuation may take one of the following two approaches: c

1. Discount the expected cash flow at the expected bond return; or

Discount the scheduled bond payments at the rating -adjusted yield-to-
maturity. c

Debt Valuation - Method 1 c

Discount the expected cash flow at the expected bond return c

Under this method, the value of the bond is the sum of the expected annual cash
flows discounted at the expected bond return: c

Value = the sum for each year t of E(cash flow)t / ( 1 + rdebt )tc

where E(cash flow)t = expected cash flow in year t.c

For a one year bond: Value = E(cash flow) / [1 + E(r d)]c

The expected bond return is t he risk-adjusted discount rate, r debt.c

The expected cash flow is the cash flow considering the probability of default: c

E(cash flow) = ʌ ( 1 + C ) F + ( 1 - ʌ ) Ȝ Fc

cc c cccc

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rdebt can be calculated using the CAPM: c

rdebt = rf + ȕdebtȆS&P500c

wherec

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If ȕdebt is not known, it can be found using ordinary least squares regression. c

If ʌ = 1 (no default risk), then rdebt = yield to maturity.c

The difference in rdebt and YTM reflects the default risk. c

Debt Valuation - Method 2 c

Discount the scheduled bond payments at the rating -adjusted yield-to-maturityc

For this method, estimate the rating -adjusted yield-to-maturity (RAYTM) by

averaging the market yield-to-maturities (YTM) of bonds in the same group. The
promised cash flows then are discounted at this rate that already has factored in the
default risk.c

Markov Chain Representation c

A firm's debt rating can change over time, and the value of future cash flows should
take into account the possibility of one or more rating changes. In this regard, bond
valuation can be modeled as a Markov Chain problem in which a transition matrix is
constructed for the probabilities of th e firm's debt moving from one rating to another.
For example, if there are five possible ratings: A, B, C, D, E, and F; and ʌ xy
represents the probability of moving from state O to state , then the transition matrix
would look like the following: c

))c )*c )c )+c ),c

*)c **c *c *+c *,c
)c *c c +c ,c
+)c +*c +c ++c +,c
,)c ,*c ,c ,+c ,,c
c

For multiple periods, the transition matrices for each period must be multiplied in
order to calculate the multi -period probabilities. This multiplication easily can be
performed by spreadsheet software.c