Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D. Profiting from the Z-Score .......................................................... 19 Mike DeAmicis-Roberts Sidebar: Calculating the Z-score .................................................. 19 Double Tops ................................................................................. 22 Thomas Bulkowski The Happy Trader ........................................................................ 29 Adrienne Laris Toghraie Sidebar: Happiness Index ............................................................ 31 Smoothing Techniques for More Accurate Signals.................. 33 Tim Tillson Sidebar: MetaStock implementations ........................................... 35 Sidebar: Perfect moving averages and oscillators ........................ 36 Pattern Recognition in Time Series ........................................... 38 Rick Martinelli Sidebar: Time series..................................................................... 41 Interview: On Synergy and Strategy: Tom Bierovic of Synergy Futures...................................................................... 42 Thom Hartle Breaking out of Price Channels ................................................. 50 Gerald Marisch Sidebar: TradeStation code .......................................................... 52 Sidebar: Variable-length moving average ..................................... 54 Letters to S&C
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The New Gann Swing Chartist ................................................... 57
Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE
Sidebar: Basic Gann swing plan rules .......................................... 62
Metaphors for Trading ................................................................. 67 Ruth Barrons Roosevelt Using Multiple Moving Averages ............................................... 70 Daryl Guppy Sidebar: An MMA MetaStock template ........................................ 73 Exits, Stops and Strategy ........................................................... 77 Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Interview: Keys to Successful Trading: Charles White of Tucson Asset Management .................................................... 83 Thom Hartle Anchored Momentum ................................................................. 89 Rudy Stefenel Sidebar: Expressions ................................................................... 95 Double Bottoms........................................................................... 99 Thomas Bulkowski Traders Tips ............................................................................... 106 Letters to S&C
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Improving the Win-Loss Ratio with the
Relative Strength Index ............................................................ 111 Thomas Bulkowski Sidebar: Calculating the RSI ...................................................... 119 How Has the Stock Market Priced Itself? ................................ 122 Gordon W. Neal Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.
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Combining Ganns 50% Rule with VIDYA ................................... 127
Gerald Marisch Using Relative P/E Ratios and Technical Analysis................. 130 Peter Desnoyers Testing Exit Strategies .............................................................. 135 Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Sidebar: C++ code ..................................................................... 139 Creating Prosperity ................................................................... 142 Adrienne Laris Toghraie Interview: Walter Bressert: Trading and Control ..................... 145 Thom Hartle Sidebar: The 12 Cardinal Mistakes ............................................ 150 Alternative Investments for Volatile Times .............................. 152 Gary Spitz Sidebar: Information services ..................................................... 154 Traders Tips ............................................................................... 156 Letters to S&C
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The German Mark Noise Channel Breakout System.............. 161
Dennis Meyers, Ph.D. Zero Cost Averaging ................................................................. 169 Terrence M. Quinn and Kristin A. Quinn Identifying Market Trends ......................................................... 173 Jack Karczewski
John Sweeney What Is Risk? ............................................................................. 183 Gary Anderson Interview: Technical Analysis as a Statistical Process: Asoka Selvarajah of Rabobank International ..................................... 189 Thom Hartle Using Trailing Stops in Exit Strategies .................................... 198 Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Sidebar: C++ code ..................................................................... 200 Traders Tips ............................................................................... 204 Letters to S&C
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Surfing the Linear Regression Curve with Bond Futures ..... 209 Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Sidebar: Fitting a trendline by least squares .............................. 216
A 10-Year Overview of Market Sentiment................................ 219 Joe Duarte, M.D. Automated Support and Resistance ...........................................225 Mel Widner, Ph.D. Sidebar: Calculation and plotting method................................... 229 Using Barrier Stops in Exit Strategies .................................... 233 Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Sidebar: Trendline dector............................................................ 233 Sidebar: C++ code ..................................................................... 236
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Interview: About Managed Futures and Commodity
Trading Advisors: Gary Spitz ................................................... 240 Thom Hartle Volatility of Returns................................................................... 247 John Sweeney Sidebar: Random returns ........................................................... 249 Matching Money Management with Trade Risk ...................... 250 Daryl Guppy The Phase Method: 1998 .......................................................... 256 Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D. Traders Tips ............................................................................... 260 Letters to S&C
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Mutated Variables, Volatility and a New Market Paradigm ..... 265
Walter T. Downs, Ph.D. Trading and the Senses ............................................................ 273 Adrienne Laris Toghraie On System Development, Part 1 .............................................. 277 Mark Vakkur, M.D. Trading Monthly Eurodollars .................................................... 285 Scott W. Barrie Interview: Before and Beyond Technology: Michael Sheimo on Dow Theory ........................................................................... 291 Thom Hartle Sidebar: The double top ............................................................. 296
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Trading Ranges With Moving Averages .................................. 299
John Sweeney Traders Tips .............................................................................. 302 Letters to S&C
Thom Hartle Secure Fractional Money Management ................................... 318 Leo J. Zamansky, Ph.D., and David C. Stendahl Barrier Stops and Trendlines.................................................... 324 Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Sidebar: C++ code ..................................................................... 324 Sidebar: Trendline dector............................................................ 327 On System Development, Part 2 .............................................. 329 Mark Vakkur, M.D. Interview: Truth in Futures: John Hill ...................................... 336 Thom Hartle Sidebar: Donchians trading guides ........................................ 340 A Volatility Trade in Gold ........................................................... 344 David S. Landry Sidebar: Formulas ...................................................................... 346 Sidebar: 2/20-day EMA breakout system defined ...................... 347 Predict the Market with Earnings Per Share ........................... 349 Randall J. Colvill Triangles..................................................................................... 352 David Vomund
Letters to S&C From Technical Terms to Technical Tools: Building Studies Based on Psychological Matrices ............................. 359 Walter T. Downs Basic Options Techniques ........................................................ 367 Mark Vakkur, M.D. Daytrading Stocks ..................................................................... 375 Mark Conway Statistics and Trading Behavior ............................................... 379 Ari Kiev and Ken Grant Sidebar: Glossary of statistics .................................................... 381 A Duration Proxy for Stock Portfolios ..................................... 383 George R. Arrington, Ph.D. Sidebar: Calculating duration ..................................................... 383 Interview: On the Bull Market of the Century: Louise Yamada........................................................................... 387 Thom Hartle Internet ....................................................................................... 394 Traders Tips ............................................................................... 395 Letters to S&C
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The Bond Futures Noise Channel-2 Breakout System .......... 399
Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
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Sidebar: Entry and exit rules ...................................................... 402
Using Percentage-Based Back-Adjusted Data ....................... 410 Enrico Donner, Ph.D. The Path Less Traded................................................................ 420 Scott Brown Sidebar: Mindtraps ..................................................................... 423 Trading the Trend....................................................................... 425 Andrew Abraham Moving Averages with Resistance and Support .................... 428 Dennis L. Tilley Interview: On a New Academic Paradigm: Henry Pruden of Golden State University ...................................................... 434 Thom Hartle Sidebar: A technical bottom ....................................................... 437 Sidebar: Buying and selling tests ............................................... 440 Traders Tips ............................................................................... 443 Letters to S&C
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Combining Statistical and Pattern Analysis ........................... 447
Walter T. Downs Sidebar: Symmetry variance ...................................................... 451 Sidebar: Optimization ................................................................. 453 Sidebar: TradeStation code ........................................................ 455 The Next Discount Rate Change .............................................. 457 Steven M. Morris Sidebar: Confidence ................................................................... 459
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Long-Term Fibonacci Support and Resistance ...................... 460
Kevin W. Murphy Uncovering Value in an Oversold Stock .................................. 465 Tamalyn V. Crutchfield Cup-with-Handle and the Computerized Approach ............... 469 Rick Martinelli and Barry Hyman Interview: The Power of Knowledge: James OShaughessy ............................................................... 475 Thom Hartle Is Gold Still a Barometer? ........................................................ 482 Alex Saitta Flexible Market Forecast .......................................................... 486 Michael Kahn Traders Tips ............................................................................... 491 Letters to S&C
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The British Pound, Cubed ........................................................ 495
Dennis Meyers, Ph.D. Sidebar: Using Excel for a cubic polynomial .............................. 503 Mechanical Trading System and the Art of Positive Slippage....................................................................... 508 Marcello Cattaneo Adorno Reversal Formations: Predictive Power? ................................ 513 Alex Saitta Combining Patterns with Indicators ........................................ 518 William Q. Smith
Seasonal Stock Index Trades ................................................... 522 James Greenwood Midlife Trading ........................................................................... 526 Adrienne Laris Toghraie Interview: Be Rich or Be Right? CTCRs Courtney Smith ..... 529 Thom Hartle Enhancing the Raff Regression Channel ................................ 537 Robert B. McKinnon Traders Tips ............................................................................... 543 Letters to S&C
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The Yen, Recursed ..................................................................... 547
Dennis Meyers, Ph.D. Sidebar: Mathematical discussion .............................................. 550 Sidebar: The recursive moving trendline system ........................ 552 Measuring Risk .......................................................................... 559 Dick Stoken Using Normal Distribution for Writing Options ...................... 563 Mark Vakkur, M.D. Plotting Trendlines .................................................................... 568 Stuart Evens The Volatility Edge ..................................................................... 573 John Sweeney Sidebar: High vs. low .................................................................. 575
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Interview: The Global Trend: Mark Boucher ............................ 576
Thom Hartle Trends and Moving Averages................................................... 583 Robert Nikifork The MACD Profit Alert ............................................................... 588 Barbara Star, Ph.D. Sidebar: Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and MACD histogram ............................................................... 590 Sidebar: The bar count .............................................................. 591 Letters to S&C