Is Afghanistan the unwinnable war - The Taliban seems to think so

20 July 2012, Ian Bickerton

http://theconversation.edu.au/is-afghanistan-the-unwinnable-war-the-taliban-seems-to-think-so-8193

The current situation in Afghanistan is a dramatic example of the old adage that all
foreign policy is merely an extension of domestic politics.
Last week, the British weekly, New Statesman, reported an interview with an
alleged senior veteran Taliban leader conducted by respected former UN diplomat
now Harvard academic, Michael Semple, during which Taliban spokesman Mawlvi
claimed that the insurgents' group was now ready to negotiate an end to hostilities
in Afghanistan, realising that complete victory was no longer possible.
The capture of Kabul is now seen as unachievable, he said, and the Taliban would
settle for a recognised role in a future Afghan government. If true, this is good
news, as it suggests a move forward from the Talibans previous refusal to
negotiate until all foreign troops had left Afghan soil. However, domestic politics
in the United States, within the Taliban, and within the Karzai government at this
time make the likelihood of meaningful negotiations in the immediate future
remote.
This is not the first time the Taliban have indicated a willingness to talk. In
November 2010 and May 2011, Germany mediated brief talks between Taliban and
US negotiators somewhere in Germany over the release of five Taliban prisoners
being held at Guantanamo in exchange for American army sergeant Bowe
Bergdahl, who was captured by the Taliban in June 2009. In January 2010, the
Taliban proposed that formal talks be continued in Qatar, where it proposed to
open an office. This move, reluctantly agreed to by the US-backed government of
President Hamid Karzai, was regarded by some as a precursor to talks to end the
now eleven year old war.
On these three occasions, the talks broke down because disagreements within the
Obama administration and the US military in the Pentagon led the US to backtrack
on its commitments leading the Taliban to suspend the talks, although they have
maintained their office in Qatar. And, in June 2012, a Taliban emissary, together
with one from the Hezb-e-Islami insurgent group, sat face-to-face with a senior
Afghan government official responsible for peace talks in a rare high-level
gathering at a peace and reconciliation conference held at Doshisha University in
Kyoto, Japan.
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But it is highly unlikely that President Obama, committed to building up a secret

US military presence in Africa and pitted against Republican hard-liners, will agree
to talk to terrorists in the run-up to the US presidential elections in November.
The official United States position remains that the insurgents must abandon
violence, break their connections to al-Qaeda, and abide by the Afghan constitution
before any real peace process can begin in Afghanistan. President Karzai also finds
himself between a rock and a hard place. He is afraid to negotiate with the Taliban
fearing it would signify defeat, and, in addition, some of his governing allies
(members of the so-called Northern Alliance) have threatened to abandon him if he
does. Karzais problems are further exacerbated by the ongoing tensions
recently labelled a war in the western Pakistan tribal areas by US Secretary of
Defense, Leon Panetta between the Pakistani military and the US.
There is still a long way to go. In his interview with Semple, Mawlvi stated that the
Taliban will not negotiate with the Karzai government whom they regard merely as
a puppet of the US, and whom, in any event, they hold in contempt, and they will
not accept the western-style, centralised constitution imposed by the US. They
want a Sharia-inspired form of government, although they have promised a more
flexible, pragmatic application of Sharia principles.
In addition, the Taliban insurgency itself is divided: by ethnic tensions as well as
religious intensity. There is no certainty that the younger mid-level Taliban leaders
in the field inside Afghanistan facing daily US drone attacks will obey calls to lay
down arms from their so-called older commanders safely ensconced in Pakistan
protected by Pakistani military patrons. Older, wiser pragmatic heads appear
willing to make concessions on issues relating to education of girls and the status
of women, although how far they are willing to go remains unclear. The recently
televised shocking sight of Taliban men callously executing a kneeling woman
accused of adultery gives the lie to these assurances, and the prospect of the
Taliban regaining dominance in any central government remains repugnant to the
great majority of Australians.
President Obama claims that the war will be over by 2014 when the US, NATO
and allied troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan. But the war will only be over
when the Taliban, the American and the Karzai governments reach an agreement.
Resolution requires all parties to recognise that victory in any military sense is
illusory and cannot be fully realised. After 11 years of martial occupation and
continuous bombing, more than 2,800 NATO soldiers as well as an unknown, or
untold, number of Afghan civilians killed, and the expenditure of more than one
billion dollars (US), the Americans and their allies (including Australia) have given
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up the pretence that they are building (or can build) a modern democratic state in
Afghanistan. Even the goal of completely eliminating al-Qaeda appears to have
been abandoned. Australia can help in the process of reaching a settlement between
the warring parties through its programme of providing financial assistance to the
reconstruction of the country over the long haul.
Perhaps the Taliban, also, are reaching the point where they acknowledge that they
cannot achieve all their goals through the force of arms, and will settle for less. If
that is the case, let us hope the opportunity to negotiate is not lost. The alternative
is the continuation of the entirely foreseeable atrocities of more civilian deaths
inflicted upon a population whose primary wish is to free themselves from
occupation by foreign troops.