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Sector: IT Services
Stock data
21 October 2015
BSE Sensex: 27288
CMP (Rs)
124
24.4 /376
160
29.3
+11.1
FY17E
+11.2
FY18E
+11.5
Bloomberg code
KPIT IN
233/85
1.6
173.7/2.7
197.2
78.3
21.7
2Q15
1Q16
2Q16
QoQ
YoY
% var from
est
124.6
5.3
-0.3
3.5
Revenue (US$
m)
Revenue
125.0
118.3
7,574
7,583
8,123
7.1
7.2
3.2
Gross profit
2,251
2,129
2,608
22.5
15.9
12.4
SG&A expenses
1,241
1,401
1,469
4.9
18.4
0.9
245
164
167
2.1
-31.6
-1.6
Depreciation
EBIT
(%)
3-mth
6-mth
1-yr
16.8
(22.0)
(20.0)
(3.2)
(1.4)
2.7
KPIT
BSE Sensex
EBIT margin
Profit before tax
Reported net
profit
EPS FD (Rs.)
765
565
971
72.0
27.0
39.7
10.1%
7.4%
12.0%
451bp
186bp
313bp
768
616
1,013
64.6
32.0
43.6
706
444
757
70.5
7.3
45.0
3.5
2.2
3.8
69.4
6.8
44.0
Shashi Bhusan
Abhishek Gupta
shashi.bhusan@idfc.com
9122 6622 2631
abhishek.gupta@idfc.com
+91 22 66222661
RESULT NOTE
KPIT Technologies
Exhibit 1: Q2FY16 result snapshot
Rs m
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15 4Q15*
1Q16
2Q16 Comments
124.6 Revenue grew 5.3% qoq led by Engineering,
125.0
126.4
122.4
122.4
118.3
Revenue
7,574
7,798
7,630
7,630
7,583
Direct costs
5,324
5,374
5,705
5,405
5,454
Gross profit
2,251
2,424
1,925
2,225
2,129
Gross margin
29.7
31.1
25.2
29.2
28.1
32.1
SG&A
1,241
1,338
1,581
1,581
1,401
1,469
EBITDA
1,241
1,338
1,581
1,581
1,401
13.3
13.9
4.5
8.4
9.6
EBITDA margin
Depreciation
245
219
225
225
164
EBIT
765
866
119
419
565
971
EBIT margin
10.1
11.1
1.6
5.5
7.4
768
841
146
446
616
63
187
-357
-5
172
706
653
503
451
444
757
706
653
503
451
444
757
- basic
3.72
3.44
2.64
2.37
2.33
3.93
- diluted
3.52
3.26
2.52
2.26
2.22
3.76
Improving profitability: The company has undertaken measures to retrace margin to mid-teens:1)
pyramid rationalization added 585 fresher although net headcount reduced by 321, 2) tail trimming
initiative to get rid of low margin clients, and 3) utilization improvement onsite and offshore
utilization improved by 400bp and 300bp qoq respectively. The management expects margin to
sustain at mid-teen level.
Better revenue predictability: The capricious performance in the past has been the key concern for
the investors. The management cognizant of the fact has taken measures to improve the
predictability: 1) taken revenue and cost predictability measures across all SBUs to improve people
utilization, 2) standardized operating frameworks and business reviews across all levels, and 3)
reduced revenue leakage through non-availability of right resources.
Focus on growth: The key strategic focus over the last two quarters was to recoup margins. After
achieving the same, the focus now shifts to strengthening the growth momentum. The efforts made
by the management 1) investment in account managers, 2) focus on product platforms, 3) investment
in digital technologies, and 4) curtail long tail in-order to improve focus.
What it means for growth and profitability?
We expect the management endeavour to fully reflect in revenue growth and profitability in CY16. We
are factoring 12% revenue CAGR over FY16-18, and build in margin expansion of 360bp over FY15-18E.
The revenue momentum would be aided by: 1) stability in Cummins account, 2) completion of rampdown in top hi-tech account, 3) strong deal wins in engineering and product & platform, and 4) deal
wins in SAP. Moreover, the margin visibility improved: 1) early signs of turnaround in SAP (mid-single
digit margin in Q2FY16 is expected to be 8-10% in Q4FY16, 2) pyramid rationalization, 3) tail trimming,
4) operating leverage due to improved revenue momentum. We are factoring in 18% earnings CAGR
over FY15-18E.
2 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
FY16E
FY17E
FY17E
Revenue (US$ m)
- New
497
561
631
- Old
488
533
600
1.9
5.4
5.2
Change (%)
Net income - Recurring (Rs m)
- New
2,626
3,201
3,899
- Old
2,352
2,859
3,475
11.6
12.0
12.2
- New
13.1
15.9
19.4
- Old
11.8
14.3
17.4
Change (%)
11.1
11.2
11.5
Change (%)
Recurring EPS - Fully diluted (Rs)
KPITs improved revenue and steady margin outlook indicate success of multiple initiatives taken by the
company over the last 3-4 quarters. The client specific challenges are behind that resulted in sharp
earnings cuts and de-rating. However, in-line with our expectation the company has regained mid-teens
margins and we expect revenue momentum to 12% CAGR over FY16-18E. KPIT is currently trading at 8x
FY17E EPS, and we expect re-rating to follow as visibility improves. We retain our Outperformer rating
with a revised target price of Rs160 (10x FY17E EPS) from Rs140.
3 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
YoY
US
83.4
82.4
1.2%
83.1
0.4
Europe
22.7
19.8
14.7%
17.2
32.3
Rest of World
18.4
16.1
14.6%
24.8
-25.6
% of Total
US
67.0
69.7
-269 bps
66.5
52 bps
Europe
18.2
16.7
149 bps
13.7
450 bps
Rest of World
14.8
13.6
120 bps
19.8
-502 bps
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
YoY
46.5
43.9
5.8
46.4
0.1
Manufacturing
41.4
42.3
-2.1
39.5
4.9
26.5
22.1
19.8
27.1
-2.3
Others
10.2
10.0
2.2
12.0
-14.9
% of Total
Automotive & Transportation
37.3
37.1
19 bps
37.1
18 bps
Manufacturing
33.3
35.8
-251 bps
31.6
165 bps
21.3
18.7
257 bps
21.7
-43 bps
8.2
8.4
-25 bps
9.6
-140 bps
YoY
Others
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
(US$ m)
46.1
46.1
-0.1
47.6
-3.1
33.5
30.7
9.2
24.3
38.2
6.1
5.0
21.5
13.3
-54.5
27.3
25.0
9.5
28.2
-3.2
11.5
11.5
0.3
11.6
-0.6
37.0
39.0
-199 bps
38.1
-105 bps
26.9
26.0
96 bps
19.4
751 bps
4.9
4.2
65 bps
10.7
-579 bps
SAP
21.9
21.1
84 bps
22.6
-65 bps
9.3
9.7
-46 bps
9.3
-2 bps
(US$ m)
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
YoY
Fixed Price
89.9
86.2
4.2%
81.4
10.4
34.7
32.1
8.1%
43.6
-20.4
72.1%
72.9%
-72 bps
65.1
704 bps
Fixed Price
27.9%
27.2%
72 bps
34.9
-704 bps
Enterprise Solutions
% of Total
4 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
Exhibit 7: Revenue mix by delivery location
(US$ m)
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
Onsite Revenues
68.6
65.4
4.9%
63.8
7.5%
Offshore revenue
54.9
51.7
6.1%
54.6
0.6%
1.0
1.2
-13.0%
6.6
-84.7%
403 bps
SI
2Q15
YoY
% of Total
Onsite
55.1
55.3
-19 bps
51.1
Offshore
44.1
43.7
36 bps
43.7
43 bps
0.8
1.0
-17 bps
5.3
-446 bps
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
YoY
1,568
1,564
0.3
1,456
7.7
8,416
8,514
-1.2
7,518
11.9
SI
Onsite FTE
1,430
1,362
5.0
1,327
7.8
Offshore FTE
5,870
5,654
3.8
5,383
9.0
7.5
9,883
10,062
-1.8
9,191
578
585
-1.2
572
1.0
Marketing (Subsidiaries)
198
192
3.1
170
16.5
10,659
10,839
-1.7
9,933
7.3
Total
Onsite Utilization
Offshore Utilization
91.2%
87.1%
413 bps
91.1%
11 bps
69.8%
66.4%
334 bps
71.6%
-185 bps
YoY
2Q16
1Q16
QoQ
2Q15
No of Active Customers
212
210
1.0
203
4.4
No of Customers Added
0.0
0.0
88
87
1.1
84
4.8
-5.2
US$1m+ Clients
Client buckets (US$ m)
Top Customer
17.7
16.8
5.4
18.6
Top 5 Customers
37.0
36.4
1.8
40.1
-7.7
19.4
19.6
-1.2
21.5
-9.9
Top 10 Customers
51.7
50.0
3.5
53.5
-3.3
14.7
13.6
7.9
13.4
9.6
Non-Top 10 Customers
72.9
68.4
6.6
71.5
1.9
% of Total
Top Customer
14.2
14.2
1 bps
14.9
-72 bps
Top 5 Customers
29.7
30.7
-101 bps
32.1
-236 bps
Top 10 Customers
41.5
42.2
-72 bps
42.8
-129 bps
82
85
-3.5%
80
2.5%
DSO (daus)
5 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
Income statement
Year to 31 Mar (Rs
m)
Net sales
% growth
Operating expenses
EBITDA
% change
Other income
Net interest
Depreciation
Pre-tax profit
Deferred tax
Key ratios
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
16.2
10.9
13.0
14.1
14.5
42,294
14.2
8.1
10.8
12.0
12.5
16.7
12.5
9.3
7.9
8.1
8.5
9.2
28,049
32,294
36,172
RoE (%)
21.5
18.4
18.6
19.1
19.5
3,270
4,175
5,301
6,122
24.3
13.7
18.8
22.2
23.0
(24.9)
27.7
27.0
15.5
0.1
0.0
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.2)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
26,940
29,899
32,224
37,595
20.3
11.0
7.8
22,588
26,629
4,353
19.1
(74)
352
288
161
281
(287)
(286)
(203)
(258)
(177)
540
851
679
775
847
3,452
2,485
3,580
4,428
5,378
Year to 31 Mar
RoCE (%)
Gearing (x)
Net debt/ EBITDA
(x)
FCF yield (%)
0.2
0.1
(0.2)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(3.3)
11.9
6.6
8.2
11.3
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
Valuations
941
115
955
1,227
1,479
2,511
2,370
2,626
3,201
3,899
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Preference dividend
12.8
11.8
13.1
15.9
19.4
Minorities
12.8
11.8
13.1
15.9
19.4
2,511
2,370
2,626
3,201
3,899
PE (x)
9.7
10.4
9.5
7.8
6.4
Non-recurring items
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.1
2,511
2,370
2,626
3,201
3,899
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
% change
26.2
(5.6)
10.8
21.9
21.8
5.8
7.6
5.7
4.3
3.3
EV/ CE (x)
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.8
Current tax
Profit after tax
Year to 31 Mar
Balance sheet
As on 31 Mar (Rs
m)
Paid-up capital
Preference capital
Reserves & surplus
Shareholders'
equity
Total current
liabilities
Total debt
Deferred tax
liabilities
Other non-current
liabilities
Total liabilities
Total equity &
liabilities
Net fixed assets
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
371
376
376
376
376
12,380
12,585
14,929
17,793
21,354
12,751
12,962
15,306
18,169
21,730
3,860
4,859
4,834
5,639
6,344
4,390
4,457
3,677
2,777
2,277
233
423
423
423
423
8,483
9,739
8,934
8,840
9,045
21,234
22,701
24,240
27,009
30,774
2,161
2,328
2,641
3,082
3,467
Cash
1,908
3,638
4,006
4,554
6,355
9,989
9,511
10,189
11,789
13,189
7,176
7,224
7,404
7,584
7,764
Investments
8,037
8,290
9,361
10,704
13,200
21,234
22,701
24,240
27,009
30,774
FY18E
Client metrics
Shareholding pattern
Cash flow
Year to 31 Mar (Rs
m)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Pre-tax profit
3,452
2,485
3,580
4,428
5,378
Depreciation
Chg in Working
capital
Total tax paid
(540)
(851)
(679)
(775)
(847)
(1,967)
(628)
(703)
(794)
(695)
(941)
(115)
(955)
(1,227)
(1,479)
Interest Received
1,460
3,070
2,805
3,441
4,229
(2,266)
(113)
(1,172)
(1,396)
(1,412)
(806)
2,957
1,633
2,045
2,816
Debt raised/(repaid)
1,177
67
(780)
(900)
(500)
Interest Paid
Capital
raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
(15)
(237)
(240)
(282)
(338)
(338)
129
(1,924)
(13)
1,730
368
549
1,801
Other items
Net chg in cash
6 | IDFC SECURITIES
As of June 15
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by IDFC Securities Ltd (IDFC SEC). IDFC SEC is a full-service, integrated investment banking, and institutional broking
group. There are no material disciplinary actions taken against IDFC SEC. Details of associates of IDFC SEC are attached as annexure.
This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any
transaction.
The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the
information herein on reasonable basis, the opinions and information in this report are subject to change without notice and IDFC SEC, its subsidiaries
and associated companies, their directors and employees (IDFC SEC and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current.
Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent IDFC SEC and affiliates from doing so. Thus, the opinions expressed herein
should be considered those of IDFC SEC as of the date on this document only. We do not make any representation either express or implied that
information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
The information contained in this document has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific
recipient. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.
The investment discussed or views expressed in the document may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investigations as
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issuer(s) or securities. The analyst certifies that no part of her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) and/or views expressed in this report.
Yes /
No.
Particulars
Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for
investment banking transaction by IDFC SEC
Whether Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1%
of the company(ies) covered in the Research report
Whether compensation has been received by IDFC SEC or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report
IDFC SEC or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for
the company(ies) covered in the Research report
Research Analyst, his associate, IDFC SEC or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in
the last twelve months
No
No
No
No
No
Explanation of Ratings:
1. Outperformer
2. Neutral
3. Underperformer
:
:
:
7 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
SEBI Registration Nos. of IDFC Securities Limited
Research Analyst
Stock Broker
NSE Capital Markets
NSE Futures & Options
BSE Capital Markets
BSE Futures & Options
US Disclaimer:
This report is distributed in the US, by IDFC Securities (Parent of IDFC Capital (USA) Inc.) only to major U.S institutional
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Securities or any authorised affiliate of IDFC Securities.
Name of Company
Category
IDFC Ltd.
Parent of
IDFC
NOFHC
Nature of business
3.
Subsidiary
4.
Subsidiary
Fund Manager
5.
Subsidiary
Dealing in Securities
6.
Subsidiary
Sponsor Investments
1.
2.
8 | IDFC SECURITIES
Parent
21 October 2015
KPIT Technologies
www.idfc.com
Analyst
Sector/Industry/Coverage
Anish Damania
anish.damania@idfc.com
Tel.+91-22-6622 2600
91-22-6622 2522
Shirish Rane
shirish.rane@idfc.com
91-22-662 22575
Nitin Agarwal
nitin.agarwal@idfc.com
91-22-662 22568
Mahrukh Adajania
Financials
mahrukh.adajania@idfc.com
91-22-662 22574
Bhoomika Nair
bhoomika.nair@idfc.com
91-22-662 22561
Shashi Bhusan
IT Services
shashi.bhusan@idfc.com
91-22-662 22631
Amit Rustagi
amit.rustagi@idfc.com
91-22-662 22688
Ashish Shah
Construction, Power
ashish.shah@idfc.com
91-22-662 22560
Deepak Jain
deepak.jain1@idfc.com
91-22-662 22562
Vijayaraghavan G
Agri-inputs, Midcaps
vijayaraghavan.g@idfc.com
91-22-662 22690
91-22-662 22567
Rohit Dokania
rohit.dokania@idfc.com
Abhishek Gupta
Telecom, IT services
abhishek.gupta@idfc.com
91-22-662 22661
Construction, Power
mohit.kumar@idfc.com
91-22-662 22573
Param Desai
param.desai@idfc.com
91-22-662 22579
Probal Sen
probal.sen@idfc.com
91-22-662 22569
91-22-662 22649
Harit Kapoor
harit.kapoor@idfc.com
Saumil Mehta
Metals, Mining
saumil.mehta@idfc.com
91-22-662 22578
Abhishek Ghosh
abhishek.ghosh@idfc.com
91-22-662 22658
Saksham Kaushal
saksham.kaushal@idfc.com
91-22-662 22529
Sanketh Godha
Financials
sanketh.godha@idfc.com
91-22-662 22657
Jiten Rushi
Construction
jiten.rushi@idfc.com
Mehul Desai
mehul.desai@idfc.com
91-22-662 22640
Dharmendra Sahu
Database Analyst
dharmendra.sahu@idfc.com
91-22-662 22580
91-22-662 22615
Ashish Kalra
ashish.kalra@idfc.com
Tel.+91-22-6622 2500
91-22-6622 2525
Rajesh Makharia
Director, Sales
rajesh.makharia@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2528
Nilisha Barbora
Director, Sales
nilisha.barbora@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2595
Palak Shah
SVP, Sales
palak.shah@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2696
91-22-6622 2558
Varun Saboo
SVP, Sales
varun.saboo@idfc.com
Hemal Ghia
SVP, Sales
hemal.ghia@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2533
Abhinav Rathee
VP, Sales
abhinav.rathee@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2586
Nirav Bhatt
AVP, Sales
nirav.bhatt@idfc.com
Chandan Asrani
AVP, Sales
chandan.asrani@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2540
91-22-6622 2537
91-22-6622 2681
Sneha Baxi
Manager, Sales
sneha.baxi@idfc.com
Kushal Bhammar
Manager, Sales
kushal.bhammar@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2577
Suryakant Bhatt
suryakant.bhatt@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2693
Mukesh Chaturvedi
mukesh.chaturvedi@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2512
Viren Sompura
viren.sompura@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2527
rajashekhar.hiremath@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2516
Alok Shyamsukha
alok.shyamsukha@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2523
Suketu Parekh
suketu.parekh@idfc.com
91-22-6622 2674
IDFC Securities
th
Naman Chambers, C-32, 7 floor,
G- Block, Bandra-Kurla Complex,
Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051
INDIA
9 | IDFC SECURITIES
21 October 2015