PETRONAS

FINAL EXAMINATION
SEPTEMBER 201 4 SEMESTER
COURSE

FDM2O63/FCM2O63/EB,B.2123. PROBABI LITY &

STATISTICS

DATE

6th

TIME

9.00 AM

JANUARY 2015 (TUESDAY)

- 12.00 NOON (3 hours)

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

1.
2.
3.
4.

Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet.

Begin EACH answer on a new page.

lndicate clearly answers that are cancelled, if any.

Where applicable, show clearly steps taken in arriving at the solutions and
indicate ALL assumptions.

5.

Do not open this Question Booklet until instructed.

Note

il

There are TEN (10) pages in this Question Booklet including

the cover page.
Graph Paper and Engineering Data and Formulae Booklet is
provided.

Universiti Teknologi

PETRoNAS

FCM2063/AB|EBB 2123

An insurance company charges younger drivers a higher premium than it

does older drivers because younger drivers as a group tend to have higher
accidents rate. The company has 3 age groups: group A includes those
less than 25 years old comprises of 35% of all its policyholders. Group B
includes those 25-40 years old, have a40o/o of all its policyholders, group C

includes those greater than

40 years old, and have 25o/o of all

its

policyholders. Company records show that in any given one-year period,

10o/o, 8o/o and

5% of its groups A, B and C policyholders have an accident

respectively.

i.

What is the percentage that the group B policyholders have an

accident in one year period?
[2 marks]

ii.

What is the percentage that the company's policyholders are

expected not to have an accident during the next 12 months?
[4 marks]

iii.

Suppose that Mrs Chong has just had a car accident, What is the
probability that she is in group C policyholders?
[4 marks]

FCM2O63/EAB/EBB 2123

2. a.

LetXbe a continuous random variable with the following distribution

i.

What are the mean of Xand the variance of X?

[3 marks]

ii.

What is the transformation needed to change the mean of Xto 0 and

the variance of X to 1?
[3 marks]

iii.

Find the value of

[4 marks]

b.

The number of student failures in probability and statistics course is a

Poisson random variable with a mean failure rate of 0.05. The course

is

offered to the students in three semesters per year. What is the percentage
that

i.

there are all pass the course in one semester?

[2 marks]

ii.

there are no failure in one year?

[3 marks]

iii.

at least three failures in one year?

[5 marks]
4

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123
3.

A company that produces a new petrol additive claims that the additive
increases the average petrol mileage. A fleet of Proton cars obtains an
average of 555 km for full tank of petrol without this additive. A random

sample of 16 Proton cars is selected. Each car is driven on a full tank

with additive added to the petrol. The sample mean for these 16
cars is found to be 588 km for full tank with a standard deviation
of 80 km.
Perform the hypothesis test to determine if the average mileage for

full tank of petrol increases with the additive. ls this

increase

statistically significant? Use o = 0.05.

[3 marks]

ii.

At 5% significant level, carry out a hypothesis test on a sample of

64 cars instead of 16 cars and with the same values of the mean
and standard deviation. What is the conclusion?
[3 marks]

iii.

Suppose

it is recommended that the additive be used every

3000 km. Given that the price of petrol is RM2.b0 per liter and the
petrol tank holds 40 liters of petrol. Was there any saving for the
users given that the additive cost is RMl S?
[4 marks]

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123
b.

Two different methods of teaching mathematics are being considered.

Group

students were taught using conventional method while

group B students were taught using OBE method. At the end of the
semester, the results show that for group A, 78 from 120 students are

pass the course whle in group B, 100 from 125 students are pass the
course.

Test the hypothesis that the OBE method of teaching is better than
the conventional method at significant level o = 0.05.
[5 marks]

What is the p-value for this test?

[2 marks]

Iil

Find the 95% two sided confidence interval for this test. What is the
conclusion?
[3 marks]

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123

4. a.

From a sample 'data on the reaction time, Y (in hours) and chamber
temperature, ,f (in 0C), the following summary values, based on 10
observations were obtained as:

Zx

= 150,

=r93,lxr = 6690,x,

= 5500,

Zy'

=8241

Determine the

i.

slope and intercept of the least squares regresson ,

t = a + pX

[4 marks]

ii.

coefficient of determination, R2,

[4 marks]

ii.

predicted reaction time for a temperature of 40 0 C .

[2 marks]

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123
b

An engineer is interested to study the effect of alignment optical chips

method (A) and solder bump size (B) on the circuit boards. Two alignment
methods and two different solder bump sizes are used. Two replicates

were obtained at each of the four experimental combinations. The data

are as follows:

rABLE 4(b)
Solder bump size (in pm), (B)

Alignment method, (A)

Method

75 m
150 rm

4.60
2.33

Method 2

4.53

1.05

1.00

2.44

0.82

0,95

Construct the design matrix for the above data.

[2 marks]

ii.

Perform the analysis of variance with = 0.05

[6 marks]

iii

Test for the main and interaction effects using = 0.05, What is the
conclusion?
[2 marks]

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123
5.

manufactured paper requires a minimum strength of 20 kg per square

meter. A random sample of 10 pieces of paper is selected and a strength

measurement

is

recorded

for each. The strength

measurements are

normally distributed with variance of 4 kg per square meter.

Determine the appropriate distribution of the sample mean

of

10

pieces of paper.
[2 marks]

il

lf the mean of the population of strength measurements is 21 kg per

square meter, find the probability that the sample mean of 10 pieces
of paper does not meet the requirement of minimum strength.
[4 marks]

ilt

Suppose the probability of sample mean meeting the requirement is

90%, estimate the true mean of paper strength.

[4 marks]

FCM2O63/EABIEBB 2123
b.

A new production line is designed to dispense 16 grams of a perfume into

each bottle. There will be some variability in the random variable X, the
amount of perfume dispensed per bottle. After calibration of the machine,
four observations on Xare taken each hour for 24-hour period. The sample

mean and the sample range for each o'f 24 samples are given

in

TABLE as(b)
TABLE A5(b)

i'

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

number

mean

range

number

mean

range

13.5

20

11

6.25

12

17.25

19

12

13.75

16

11.5

11

13

21.0

18

12.5

21

14

17.75

16

10.75

18

15

7.25

16

19.5

14

16

12.25

26

14.25

13

17

17.0

21

12.75

13

18

14.5

19

13.0

25

19

4.5

11

10

22.75

23

20

12.75

Use the given data to construct the X - chart and the R

: chart and

plot the data. ls the process in control?

[8 marks]

Assuming that the process is in control, estimate the process mean

and standard deviation.
[2 marks]

- END OF PAPER 10