1

1.1

2 5

1 9 9 1 1 3 0

1.2

(
)

()

1.3

( )

( )
2

7 000

7 0 0

( ) (
)

1.4

( C A D ) ( C A D )
( C A M )

C A DC A D / C A M

( )

(
)

1.5

C A DC A M

1.6

2 0
( C o n c o r d e ) 3 0 0
1 3

5 6

( ) (
)

( )
( )

5 2
7 7 3 7
7 7
5 2
3

(
)

10

Yu m m y t u m m y f i l l a
( Y T F ) ( )

1 8 0

(
) 1 2 0
260 YTF

400 000 YTF

75 000
(
)

Y T F ( )
1 8 0 8 0
(260-180)
1 2 0( )

(
40120/300
1 0 4 2 6 0 4 0

11

Y T F

325 000

(400 000 - 75 000 )

(
)

( )

1.7

12

I C I

( )

ICI
(
) I C I

13

(
)
( )

1.8

14

1.9
1.
2.
3. (
)
(a)
(b)
(c)

15

(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
4.
5.

6.
7.

16

01-99-1088

2.1
1

(
)

1
1

2.2

18

( )
1 000

1 000
12 000

1 000
1 012 000 1

1 000 1 0
1 20010
1 000
10 1 100

V11 SI r

1 200

1 000 10

V22

1 200 5
1 000 1 0 5
1 610.51 ( V 5=1 000( 1 . 1 ) 5)

19

1 200

1 2 5

n 0 ()n

(2.3)

001 000r
1 0 n 1 1 1 100 n 2
1 210 n5 1 610.51
1 01 000 1 1 100 2
1 210 5 1 610.51
( 2 . 3 )
7 52 0 1 6

V 20=75(1.16) 20 =1 459.56

(2.4)

2.3

( )

2 000 5
2-1
(
20

5 )

16
7 52 0 1 459.56 2 0
1 6 1 459.56
7 5 1 0 51 610.51
1 000
( )

5( 5 )
9
5
9 9

2-1

1
2
3
4
5

()
200
475
600
650
800

( 1 +r) n

=P=V n / (1+ r) n

(2.5)

( 2 . 5 )

2-1
2 000
( )1 0
2-2

21

2-2
(n)
1
2
3
4
5

()
200
475
600
650
800

(1+r) n
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641
1.61051

()
181.82
392.56
450.79
443.96
496.74

5 1 965.87
5 2 725
1 966

(2 000)

3 4 . 1 3(2 0001 965.87)

(
)

2 000 5
5 1
( 2 0 0 4 7 5 6 0 0
800) 55 2-3
2-3

22

(1)

(2)

()

1
2
3
4
5

2 000
2 000
1 725
1 297.5
777.25

(3)

10%

()
200
200
172.5
129.75
77.725

(4)

()
(2)+(3)

(5)

()

2 200
2 200
1 897.5
1 427.25
854.975

200
475
600
650
800

(6)

()
(4)-(5)
2 000
1 725
1 297.5
777.25
54.975

5
5 4 . 9 7 3 4 . 1 3( 5 4 . 9 7 / 1 . 1 5)

( H a w k i n s ) ( P e a r c e ) 1 9 7 1

( 1 5

( N P V )
( I R R )4

(
)
3

( )

( S a n g s t e r ) ( 1 9 9 3 ) 7 3
7 8
( )3 1 (
)
1 / 4

23

2.4
n
()r V( 1 +r) n

( 2 . 5 )

V 1( i 1)V n(i=n) V i

( 2 . 5 )

( 1 0 0)

2.4.1
( P e r p e t u i t i e s )
( 2 . 6 ) n

24

( 1)
( P e r i o d

discount rate) r
=V/r

(2.7)

100 8%
1 250 ( 1 0 0
0 . 0 8 )

2.4.2

(Annuities) (20)

=PA=

2 0 1 0 0
12%

2 0 2 000 ( 2 01 0 0 )

25

747

2.5

1( A)1
( B ) A
( )
1
( ) 9(
9)8 9 8
0.50025 91
8 5 0
1
2 0 1
1 2 0 . 0 1 0 3 6 7
9
3 5 8 0 . 5 0 0 2 5
3 5 1 7 . 5 0 8 7 5
(0 . 5 0 0 2 50 . 1 0 3 6 7 )2-4
2-2

( 1 . 15)
2-2
( 5 )

26

2-4
(1)

(n)
1
2
3
4
5

(2)

()
200
475
600
650
800

(3)

(10%)
0.90909
0.82645
0.75131
0.68301
0.62092

(4)
()
(2)(3)
181.82
392.56
450.79
443.96
496.74

BA
1 9
1 8 91
6 . 2 4 6 8 8 2 0 1
12 7.46944

20100
12 100 746.944
(2.8)

2.6

27

(NPV)
(IRR)

r
(20)

2.7 2
2.7.1 (2.7)

28

V/(1+r)=a, 1/(1+r)=x(2.A1)
PP = a(1+x+x 2 +x 3+...)

(2.A2)

x
xPP = a(x+x 2+x 3+x 4...)

(2.A3)

(2.A2) (2.A3)
PP-xPP=PP(1-x)=a(1+x+x 2+x3 +x 4...)-[a(x+x 2+x 3+x 4...)]= a (2.A4)

ax(2.A4)

(1+r)

PP[(1+r)-1]=PP.r =V

PP=V/r

(2.A5)

(2.A5) (2.7)

2.7.2 (2.8)

(2.A6)(2.A7)

(1+r)

29

(2.A8) (2.8)

2.8
2.1
(a)10100 12
(b)17300 8
(c)64 500 18
(d)113 250 6

( a ) A 1 0 1 2
0 . 3 2 1 9 7 1 0 1
1 2 0 . 3 2 1 9 7
12100 32.197
(b)A 17 8
0 . 2 7 0 2 7 1 7 1
8 0.27027 8
300 81.081
(c)A 6 18
0 . 3 7 0 4 3 64 500 1 8
1 666.935

30

(d)A 11 6
0 . 5 2 6 7 9 113 250 6
1 712.675
2 . 2

9 000

7 2 000

(a)8
(b)12
(c)20

( a )B 817
5.20636
2 0005 . 2 0 6 3 6 10 412.72

( b ) B 1 21 7
4.56376
2 0004.563769 127.52

( c ) B 2 01 7
3.60459
2 0003.604597 209.18

2 . 3

2 5 0

(a)10
(b)17
(c)23

31

(PVP) V/rV
r

(a)PVP=250/0.1=2 500
(b)PVP=250/0.17=1 470.59
(c)PVP=250/0.23=1 086.96

2.9
1.

2.
3.
4.

5.

32

3.1

( 1 9 9 3 ) (2
) ( )

( P a y b a c k m e t h o d ) ( A c c o u n t i n g r a t e o f
return method)( R O C E
R O I )

7 0

34

3.2
1

(
)
50 000
3-1
3-1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

A()
7 500
20 000
15 000
7 500
3 000
0
0
0
0
0

A()
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000

50 000
A 4 B 5 A
4B 5
(
A B )
(
A B )

35

3 A
B 4
A B 5

A
3

( )

3-1 1 0
3-2( )
3-2

36

(10%)

0.90909

7 500

6 818

10 000

9 091

0.82645

20 000

16 529

10 000

8 265

0.75132

15 000

11 270

10 000

7 513

0.68301

7 500

5 123

10 000

6 830

0.62092

3 000

1 863

10 000

6 209

0.56447

10 000

5 645

0.51316

10 000

5 132

0.46651

10 000

4 665

()

9
10

(10%)

0.42410
0.38554

0
0

0
0

10 000
10 000

4 241
3 855

A
41 603
B
A
8 5

(NPVIRR)
( )
()

3-1A 4 A
3

37

3-1 AB (
) A B A
A
A 1
(53 000) B 10 000
1 0 B100 000
A53 000

34

(3)
4
2 5 3 3 3
38

3 3

4
2 0 5
1 0
1 0
20

3.3
( R O C ER O I )

()/
C 8

39

45 000 (8 )
5 000 ()3-3
3-3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

5 000
5 000
8 000
8 000
12 000
12 000
15 000
15 000

80 000 10 000

2 2 . 2 (10 000/

45 000)

( )/ 2
3-1
()

()

3-1

40

3-1
45 000
5 000

45 0005 000
25 000
(45 0005 000)/ 2
25 000

4 0

(10 000 /25 000)

( )

3-3
815 00015 000
3 1 0 1

41

4 5458 6 998
1 1 . 5 1 7
1 5 000 8
15 000

1 65 0 0 1 5500 000

1 1 1 0
1

42

3.4

( )

43

3.5
3.1

30 000

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

A()
7 500
7 500
7 500
7 500
5 000
0
0

B()
5 000
5 000
6 000
6 000
8 000
15 000
15 000

(a) 4
(b) 12

(a) A 4 B 5
A
(b) 12

1
2

44

(12)
0.89286
0.79700

7 500
7 500

6 696
5 979

5 000
5 000

4 464
3 986

()

(12)
0.71178
0.63552
0.56743
0.50663
0.45235

3
4
5
6
7

7 500
7 500
5 000
0
0

5 338
4 766
2 837
0
0

6 000
6 000
8 000
15 000
15 000

4 271
3 813
4 539
7 599
6 785

A 25 616 A
B6
28 672735 457
6 . 2 5( 7
) B
3 . 2

C 60 000 6
6 0 D 10 000
332 000
()

C()

D()

2 000

1 000

4 000

2 000

3
4

6 000
10 000

3 000

11 000

12 000

=(+)/2
C=(60 0000)/ 2 30 000
D (10 0002 000)/ 26 000

C=(2 0004 000 6 00010 000 11 000

12 000)/ 67 500

45

D=(1 0002 000 3 000)/ 32 000

C =7 500/30 0000.2525
D =2 000/6 0000.33333.3
DD

3.6
1.
2.

3.

4.
5.
6.

46

4.1

( N P V ) ( I R R ) 2
3

4.2
2 (2-2 )

48

(Net Present Value,NPV)

1) (
)
2) ( 9)

3)
4)

A t t n
I 0 r

49

4-1
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

()
-2 000
350
500
600
800
800
600

(1r)n
1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641
1.6105
1.7716

()
-2 000
318.18
413.22
450.79
546.41
496.74
338.68

4-2
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

()
-1 500
200
260
450
700
700
400

(1r)n
1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641
1.6105
1.7716

()
-1 500
181.82
214.88
338.09
478.11
434.64
225.79

(A)
(B ) 4-14-2
10
A 564 020 B373 330
A B
A
A
AB

A B

50

4.3
(Internal Rate of Return, IRR)

I R R
I R R
(
)

I R R I R R

( 1 9 9 3 )5 8
4 8

4-1 (A )4-2 (B )

51

1 0(4-14-2 )
IRR IRR
4-1 4-2
1 0 I R R 1 0
4-34-4 15
4-3
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

()
-2 000
350
500
600
800
800
600

(1r) n
1
1.15
1.3225
1.5209
1.7490
2.0114
2.3131

()
-2 000
304.35
378.07
394.50
457.40
397.73
259.39

4-4
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

()
-1 500
200
260
450
700
700
400

(1r) n
1
1.15
1.3225
1.5209
1.7490
2.0114
2.3131

()
-1 500
173.91
196.60
295.88
400.23
348.02
172.93

15A191 440
B87 570
1 5 2 0 A
-105 646B- 139 511
IRR1520
A 1 8 . 1B
16.8A
10

52

I R R
( ) (
)

(
)

( )
4-1

15A 191 440

B 87 570 2 0
- 105 646- 139 511
A 5 297 086
(191 440+105 646)
1 5 191 440 (
)
(191 440/297 086)50.64453.2

A 18.2
( )1 8 . 1

53

B
(87 570/227 081)50.38651.9
()

(%)

4-1

B
16.9 16.8

1 02 0
A18.4
B 17.2

54

AB

4.4

AB

55

A B1

- ++++++
C
4-5 (C ) 7 (
) A
( 4-1)
C
1
7- ++++
++- C

- +++- +++
1( )4(
) 5( )

4-5
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

()
-2 000
350
500
600
800
800
600
-200

(1r) n
1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641
1.6105
1.7716
1.9487

()
-2 000
318.18
413.22
450.79
546.41
496.74
338.68
-102.63

4.4.1

56

( )

( )

( 8
)

4.4.2

(
)IRR

(1+IRR)
0=-I 0 (1+IRR) 2+A 1(1+IRR)+A 2

(IRR)

57

nn-1IRR(n )
I R R
1 02 0
1 5
4-2
()

(%)

4-2 IRR

I R R

( )
I R R
IRR15-15
( )
I R R(
)( ( D e s c a r t e s ' s )
( )

58

()
)
(I R R
) 4-2
4-3
I R R71 22 0 1 6
I R R
4-3 1 6

4-4 I R R ( 1 5)
1 0
1 0

()

(%)

4-3 IRR

59

()

4-4

I R R

I R R

4.4.3

60

( ) IRR
( IRR)

4-6 (D E ) D E
10
D
E

4-5
0 2 5
1 2 . 6 7
D E 12.67D
E 1 2 . 6 7

4-6
(n)

D()

E()

-2 000

-2 000

500

500

500

100

500

200

500

2 000

500

2 500

NPV
IRR

604.3
14.6%

500
434.2
16.3%

61

( )( )
( )

E D
D-E 4-7
()

(%)

4-5

D-E 1 2 . 6 7

E
D-E D-E 1 2 . 6 7
1 0 D-E
ED-E E + D-E = D
D

62

4-7
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

D
()
-2 000
0
0
0
100
200
2 000
2 500

E
()
-2 000
500
500
500
500
500
500
500

D-E
()
0
-500
-500
-500
-400
-300
1 500
2 000

( )

(
)

()

(25)

63

4.4.4

E ( ) F (E
) 4-8 10
4-8
()
(n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NPV
IRR

E
-2 000
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
434.2
16.3%

F
-500
160
160
160
160
160
160
160
278.9
25.5%

E
F

500 00025.5 2 000 000

1 6 . 3
E 2 000 000 1 6 . 3
2 000 000
(500 000 ) F
64

500 000 E
1 500 000

F 2 5 . 5 2 000 000
(F )

2 000 000 E
F
E

4.4.5

GH4-910
4-9
H
G G 25
1 H
( 3) G
1 0( )

4-9
()
(n)
0

G
-3 000

H
-3 000

65

()
(n)
1
2
3
NPV
IRR

G
3 750
0
0
409.1
25%

H
0
0
5 000
756.6
18.6%

4.4.6

4.5

66

67

(8
)

4.6
4.1

()

0
1
2
3
4
5

A
-150 000
50 000
50 000
50 000
50 000
50 000

B
-150 000
120 000
25 000
25 000
25 000
25 000

(a) 10
(b)
(c)

(d)

(e)
A-B

(a)

68

NPV A=45 455+41 322+37 566+34 151+31 046-150 000 = 39 540

NPV B=109 091+20 661+18 783+17 075+15 523-150 000 =31 133
()
(n)
0
1
2

-150 000
50 000
50 000

-150 000
120 000
25 000

(1+r) n

1
1.1
1.21

-150 000
45 455
41 322

-150 000
109 091
20 661

3
4
5

50 000
50 000
50 000

25 000
25 000
25 000

1.331
1.4641
1.6105

37 566
34 151
31 046

18 783
17 075
15 523

( b ) 1 0
1 0 2 0
A- 4 6 9 B
3 932 2 2 B
- 5 4 0 A 2 0 B
22(
IRRA19.86IRR B21.75)
( c ) A
B
( d )

IRR
B
( e ) A-B

()
(n)
0
1
2

-150 000
50 000
50 000

-150 000
120 000
25 000

A-B

0
-70 000
25 000

69

()
(n)

50 000
50 000
50 000

3
4
5

25 000
25 000
25 000

A-B

25 000
25 000
25 000

10 8 406
15 1 195 16
- 3 9
1 6 ( 1 5 . 9 7) 1 0
A-B B
B + A-B = A

4.7
1.

2.
3.

4.

5.

70

5.1

72

5.2

(
) (
)

5.3

73

( )

(
)

74

5.4

(
) ( ) (
)

2 0
10( 20
0 . 5 + 0 0 . 5 = 1 0 )

10 10 (

75

) 1 0
1 0 9

10 10

10

1 0
1
99 900 ( 00 . 0 0 1 + 100 000
0 . 9 9 9 )
5 0 0 1 0
99 500( 1 0
5 0 0 )

(
)

76

5.5

5.5.1
(
)

(
)

( 1 )
(2) (3)

77

( 4 )
1 2
5-1(
)

0 . 6 0 . 4
0 . 4 5 0 . 5 5

10.60.450.27
20.60.550.33
30.40.450.18
4: 0.40.550.22
5-1

0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV

1
-25 5000
6 000
8 000
7 500
7 000
4 000
-1 709

2
-25 5000
6 000
6 000
5 000
5 000
3 000
-6 921

3
-25 5000
9 000
12 000
12 000
12 000
7 000
12 242

4
-25 5000
9 000
8 500
8 000
7 500
5 000
2 610

( E N P V ) = (-1 7090 . 2 7 ) + (-6 9210.33)+(12 242 0 . 1 8 )

+(2 6100.22)=32.40

78

5-1

3 0 ( )
(
)

( 5-1 ) 0 . 6( 0 . 2 7 + 1 . 3 3 )

1 / 6

1 / 6

5-1 3 2 . 4 0
32.40
12 2422 610 3 2 . 4 0

79

5.5.2
(

(
)
( 8
2 5( 1 0
8 8 )
( )
(
)

(
)
(
)
( L u m b y )

(1991p.275)

80

A 11
1 5

(7 )

5.5.3

(
)
7
( )

5-2
5-2

1%
3%
5%
8%
11%
15%

(
+)
8%
10%
12%
15%
18%
22%

81

( 7 )

5-2
1 000 000
1 1 000 0002
800 000 3 775 000 4
1 700 000( )(
)8- 22 543
2 2
+16 581

(
82

1 700 000)

5.5.4

(
)
( )

5-3

83

10 8
0 (-800 000 )
1~ 8 175 000
133 612

5-3

()
800
50
20
30
275

0
1~8
1~8
1~8
1~8

800 000 933 612

16.75( ) 133 612
1 6 . 7 5

800 000

175 000 150 000

50 000 75 000
5 0
84

5-4
5-4
(1)

(2)

800
50
20
30
275

(3)
=0

934
75
45
55
250

(4)
(2)(3)

16.75
50
125
83.33
9.1

1 0 1 4 . 3
4 4 . 3 6
1 8 . 7 5

9 . 1
1 6 . 7 5

2 5 2 5
5-5

85

5-5
()
(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

25%

25%

800 000

-66 388

333 612

50 000

66 926

200 299

20 000

106 937

160 287

30 000

93 600

173 624

275 000

500 389

-233 164

10

54 358

225 028

275 299

-37 829

133 612

3 2 5

5.6

86

87

5.7
5.1

( ) 4

0.2 0.5 0.3

(a)12

88

(b)

0
1
2
3
4

()
-60 000
25 000
25 000
25 000
25 000

()
-60 000
20 000
20 000
20 000
20 000

()
-60 000
15 000
15 000
15 000
15 000

( a ) 1 2
41 B
3.03735
( N P V Boom)=25 000 3 . 0 3 7 3 5-60 000
=15 934
( N P V Neutral)=20 000 3 . 0 3 7 3 5-60 000
=747
(NPVRecession)=15 0003.03735-60 000 =
-14 440
(b)
=0.215 934+0.5747+0.3(-14 440)
5.2

()
1 000
400
60
25
35
15
535

0
0
1~6
1~6
1~6
1~6
1~6

16
(a)

89

( b )

)+25-25

0 (-1 400 000)1

~6 400 000
( a )B 1 6 61
3.68474
=400 0003.68474-1 400 000=73 896
( b ) 2 5 2 5

()

1 000
400
60
25
35
15
535
16%

25%
1 250
500
75
31.25
43.75
18.75
668.75
20%

25%
750
300
45
18.75
26.25
11.25
401.25
12%

2 5 250 000
(-176 104) 2 5
323 896 25
(- 2 6 1 0 4 ) 2 5
173 896 2 5
15 000
=385 0003.68474-1 400 000=18 625

90

()

1 000
400
60
25
35
15
535
16%

25%
-176 104
-26 104
18 625
50 866
41 655
60 078
566 730
-69 796

25%
323 896
173 896
129 167
96 926
26.25
87 714
-418 938
244 564

5.8
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.

91

6.1

( )

6.2

5
4
5
5
( )

93

( )
4 ( 1 )
( 2 )
(3) (4)
6-1 5
12
6-1

0
1
2
3
4
5
NPV

1
-25 500
6 000
8 000
7 500
7 000
4 000
-1 709

2
-25 500
6 000
6 000
5 000
5 000
3 000
-6 921

3
-25 500
9 000
12 000
12 000
12 000
7 000
12 242

4
-25 500
9 000
8 500
8 000
7 500
5 000
2 610

1 3
1
1
5

1 2
3 4 5

94

6-11 3

0 . 9 0 . 1
0 . 4
0 . 6
1 6 000 9 0
9 000 102 8 000
12 000 1
1 2
0 . 9 1 2
0.6

6-1

2.56

( 0 . 0 2 5 6 0 . 10 . 40 . 40 . 40 . 4)
12 241.60
6-1
1 2
3 4 5
6 000 12 000 7 500 7 000
7 000

3 182.4

0 . 0 0 4 8 6 (0 . 90 . 10 . 60 . 90 . 1)

95

0 1 2 3 4 5

6-1

111 . 9

1 5
- 3 1 3 . 9(
(-1 709)0.9+12 2420.1))

96

9 0

6 0 9 0

1 318.85(
12 2420 . 4 + (-1 709)0 . 6 )

1 0 4 0

6.3
5

(
)

97

5-3
50 000

6-2 ( 50 000)

6-2 50 000

( )

5-3
825 000 52 500
18 000 370 000
320 000
( 1 0 0

98

)
( i t e r a t i o n )
6-3 (
133 000)

6-3

( )

15 000

99

6.4

5 ( 1 )
( 2 ) ( 3 ) ( 4 )
( 5 )
5

6.4.1
P L C

(April Noone) 1 0
4
A

100

( ) (

D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
4
6-2
6-2
()

A
B
C
D

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

-1 500
-750
-235
-100

-250
+225
0
+100

-575
-975
-175
-200

+2 350
+2 000
+950
+500

+770
+500
+400
+300

101

D 1D (
) D 2 B

5 - 8 5 0 2 0 0
-1 000 1 780 4 5 0 B
E B
E E B

(1)-

(The Bayes-Laplace criterion)

6-25
-5 0 . 2
8
0 . 1 2 5 0 . 2

102

E N P V ( A ) = [ 0 . 2(-1 500)]+[0.2 (-2 5 0 ) ] + [ 0 . 2(-5 7 5 ) ]

+(0.22 350)+(0.2770) = 159
ENPV(B)=[0.2(-750)]+(0.2225)+[0.2(-975)] +(0.2
2 000)+(0.2500)= 200
E N P V ( C ) = [ 0 . 2(-2 3 5 ) ] + ( 0 . 20 ) + [ 0 . 2(-1 7 5 ) ] + ( 0 . 2
950)+(0.2400) = 188
E N P V ( D ) = [ 0 . 2(-1 0 0 ) ] + ( 0 . 21 0 0 ) + [ 0 . 2(-2 0 0 ) ] + ( 0 . 2
500)+(0.2300)= 120
B

B C
D B C D

6-2
A

-
0 . 1

(2)
(The maximax criterion)

103

A+2 350
B+2 000
C+950
D500
A

D 4 (
) 6 - 2

F (-3 0 0 ) 7 0 0
(-1 0 0 ) 5 0 0 2 0 0
D 2
F 7 0 0 A
A

A
D 1

(3)
(The maximin criterion)

104

A-1 500
B-975
C-235
D-200
D- 2 0 0
D

D
C

- C D
(4)
(The Hurwicz criterion)

0 . 2 0 . 8
0 . 4 5
0 . 5 5
0 . 2 ( )0 . 8 ( )

A(0.22 350)+[0.8(-1 500)]=+232.5

B(0.22 000)+[0.8(-975)]=-380
C(0.2950)+[0.8(-235)]=+2

105

D(0.2500)+[0.8(-200)]=-60
C 0 . 4 50 . 5 5

A(0.452 350)+[0.55(-1 500)]=+232.5

B(0.452 000)+[0.55(-975)]=+363.75
C(0.45950)+[0.55(-235)]=+298.25
D(0.45500)+[0.55(-200)]=+115
B

(5)

(The minimax regret criterion)

A D 1 A
D 1 (-1 500) D 1

106

D ( (-1 0 0 ))
A D 1

D1 A =(-100)
-(-1 500)=1 400

D 2 A = + 2 2 5(-250)=475
D3 A =(-175)
-(-575)= 400
D4 A=+2 350
-(2 350)=0
D 5 A = + 7 7 0(+770)=0
D4D5
A A

6-3
6-3

A
B
C
D

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

1 400
650
135
0

475
0
225
125

400
800
0
25

0
350
1 400
1 850

0
270
370
470

A 1 400
B 800
C 1 400

107

D 1 850

B ( )

(6)

(
)

6.5

108

109

6.6
6 . 1

( Trackstar plc)

3 ABC
(1)(2)
( 3 )

()

A
B
C

430
390
200

(a) -
(b)

110

100
200
150

440
260
100

(c)
(d)
(e)
0 . 7 5
0 . 2 5
0.25 0.75

(a)

A=430/3+100/3-440/3=30
B=390/3+200/3-260/3=110
C=200/3+150/3+100/3=150
- C
(b)
A430
B-260
C200
A
(c)
A-440
B-260
C100
C
(d) 0 . 7 5
0.25
A[0.75430+0.25(-440)]=212.5
B[0.75390+0.25(-260)]=227.5
C(0.75200+0.25100)=175

111

B
0 . 2 5
0.75
A[0.25430+0.75(-440)]=-222.5
B[0.25390+0.75(-260)]=-97.5
C(0.25200+0.75100)=125

C
(e)
A
A1
2 B
(200-100)=100
3 [100-(-440)]=540
BC
()

100

540

40

360

230

50

A 540
B 360
C 230
C

6.7
1.

112

2.

3.

4. -

5.

113

7
-

7.1

5 6
5

-
(Capital-Asset Pricing Model, CAPM)
-
-

--

-
-

-
()()

( )

( )

115

( )

7.2
5

( )

( )

( )

116

(
) ( )

(
)

(
)

(
)

( )

117

7.3

( )
( )

( 2)

118

A
B
B

(
)

( )

(
)

119

(
)
2 1 0
1 1 0

B A

( )

( )

120

7.4

- ()

7.5

121

112 000 212 100

5( 1 0 0 2 000
5) 531
1953 7( 147
2 100 7) 7

A
111 . 5 211 . 6 5 311 . 4 2
1 0
-14 A
5 10
7 14

-

A2 ( 13
)

( )

R iR f (R mR f)i

R i ( )Rf
( )R m (
) i
6
142(A)
Ri R f(R mR f )i 6(146)222

122

1.25
-

( Q)
( Z ) Z Q
QZ
Z Q
Z Q

123

7.6 -
-

-

2
1 . 8 1 . 82
2 2 2 0 . 4

(
)
-

7.7 -
-

124

-
-

- ( )

7.8
-
-
-

125

(
)

(
)

126

-
( )

(
- )


-

127

-
-

7.9
1.

2.
3.
4.

5.
6. -

7.

8. -

128

8.1
4

8.2

130

131

8.3

7
(A-G) 8-1
8-1
()

(NPV)

330 000

+100 000

270 000

+90 000

300 000

+95 000

80 000

+20 000

200 000

-50 000

150 000

+40 000

400 000

+180 000

6
7 E
720 000
( 6
1 530 000)
E
6

132

G D

720 000
(G A )
730 000

- =/
6-
8-2-

110 000 1/3A 33 333

8-2
()

A
B
C
D
F
G

()
330 000
270 000
300 000
80 000
150 000
400 000

(NPV)
+100 000
+90 000
+95 000
+20 000
+40 000
+180 000

0.303
0.333
0.316
0.250
0.267
0.450

4
2
3
6
5
1

- 6
G( )B(
) 670 000720 000
50 000 50 000
C C 300 000

133

1/6C GB1/6C
285 833

-
720 000 6

8-3 C G
275 000 700 000 20 000

( 20 000 )

8-3
()

A+B+D

210 000

A+C+D

215 000

A+D+F

160 000

B+C+D

205 000

B+C+F

225 000

B+G

270 000

C+D+F

155 000

C+G

275 000

D+F+G

240 000

(0)

1 400 000
6 1
(8-4)

134

8-4
()

A
B
C
D
F
G

0
330 000
270000
300 000
80 000
150 000
400 000

1
175 000
0
150 000
100 000
0
350 000

+100 000
+90 000
+95 000
+20 000
+40 000
+180 000

B F1
4 1
- ( B C 1 )B C 1
1 4BC1
A

100/175=0.571

95/150=0.633

20/100=0.200

180/350=0.514

C A G D
B F C
A G7 5 / 3 5 0
1400 000
8-5 A
C(BF)
8-5
()

A+C
A+D
C+D
G

195 000
120 000
115 000
180 000

135

C
G
-
G6
5 B C
A F D B C (
570 000)A150/330
[90 000+95 000+(150/330) 100]230 455
C6 5
GBAFD
GB(670 000 )
A5 0 / 3 3 0 [180 000+90 000
+(50/330)100]285 152
C
720 000
C
G 8-5
BG 270 000

8.4

1
1

136

(
)

6(H-M)
(
0 . 3
0 . 3 ) 5
(0) 800 000
4(14) 200 000
6 8-6
8-6
()

0
-120

1
-80

2
-160

3
-140

4
-100

+85

137

()

-40

-100

-120

-120

-140

-230

-90

+60

+80

+80

+100

-450

+70

+70

+70

+120

+220

4
+160

-75

-40

-10

+45

+85

+20

-200

-100

-100

-40

-40

+80

5
( K 0 )
K
1

H h 0 . 5
H N P V 42 500
h H h
85 000( 85 000h) jJ
j100 000(100 000j)
NPV
85 000h+160 000i+100 000j+220 000k+20 000l+80 000m

0H 120 000
h
120 00h 0
120 000h+40 000i+230 000j+450 000k+75 000l+200 000m

0
800 000
120 000h+40 000i+230 000j+450 000k+75 000l+200 000m800 000

138

14
180 000 h+100 000 i+90 000 j+40 000 l+100 000 m
200 000
2160 000h+120 000i+10 000l+100 000m 200 000
3140 000h+120 000i+40 000m200 000
4100 000h+140 000i+40 000m200 000
1 4
( )

(
) 1 ( H
H)

0h1
0i1
0j1
0k1
0l1
0m1
1 11 ( 5
6 )

()

h=0.125

0735

i=1

1200

j=1

2140

139

k=1

3137

l=0

4152

m=0
NPV()=490 625

IJK
H0 . 1 2 5 L M
N P V490 625 1

0 4

200 000 K
k 1 70 000 k 2
70 000k370 000k4120 000k
(JL )4

180 000h+100 000i+90 000j+40 000l+100 000m

200 000+70 000k
2160 000h+120 000i+10 000l+100 000m 200 000+
60 000j+70 000k
3140 000h+120 000i40 000m200 000+80 000j +70
000k +45 000l
4100 000h+140 000i+40 000m200 000+80 000j +
120 000k+85 000l
J K L

140

()

h=1

0800

i=1

1184

j=0.826

2160

k=1

3124

l=0

4 54

m=0
NPV()=547 609

H ( J ) 547 609
0

1 H 80 000 I 100 000

J74 340(0 . 8 2 690 000)K
1 254 340
70 000 K
184 340

K1

141

)
hijklm (
)
1

()

h=0

0720

i=1

1190

j=1

2120

k=1

3120

l=0

4140

m=0
NPV()=480 000
H
10 000

()

h=0

0 795

i=1

1 160

j=1

k=1

3 -75

l=1

4-145

m=0
NPV()=500 000
(L ) 34
142

( )
20 000500 000

8.5

143

-
-

(
)

( )

144

8.6
8.1

()

A1
A2
A3
A4
A5

0
100 000
140 000
210 000
230 000
90 000

+40 000
+45 000
+65 000
+75 000
+30 000

0 5
300 000

(a)
(b) --

(c)

(d)

(a)

145

A14
A23
A32
A41
A55
(b) -

()

A1
A2
A3
A4
A5

0.400
0.321
0.310
0.326
0.333

1
4
5
3
2

(c) -
300 000
A 1 A 5 190 000
A4 A1
A5 A4
110 000(300 000-190 000) A 4
110/230A4 (110/230)75 000
35 870 40 000+30 000+35 870
105 870
(d) 300 000

()

A+A2
A1+A5
A3+A5
A4

146

85 000
70 000
95 000
75 000

A3A5
95 000
8.2

()

A6
A7
A8
A9
A10

0
-70
90
-110
-300
-170

1
-40
-60
-50
-20
-70

2
+20
-40
-30
+10
-30

3
+40
-20
-30
+30
-30

4
+60
-70
-30
+50
-85

+40
+60
+60
+120
+90

0450 000
1140 000
2450 00

(a)
(b)
(c)

m A 6 A 7A 1 0
npqr
(a)
40 000m+60 000n+60 000p+120 000q+90 000r

(b) 0
70 000m+90 000n+110 000p+300 000q+170 000r450 000

14

147

1 40 000 m+60 000 n+50 000 p+20 000 q+70 000 r

140 000
240 000n+30 000p+30 000r50 000
320 000n+30 000p+30 000r50 000
470 000n+30 000p+85000r50 000
(c) mnpqr
01

8.7
1.

2.
3. -
4.
5.

148

9.1

7-
( C A P M )

7-

( Weighted average cost of capital, WA C C )

1 0

150

9.2

( )

(
-

)
()

-
(Gearing ratio)

9.2.1

()

151

( )

152

7
(
) ( )

1 ()

1 1
1

P 0 D 11 P 11
ke (
D1P 1
k e)
1
1 () 2
2 ()
1

P 11 D22 P22
(9.1)

2
( 9 . 1 )

153

( 9 . 5 )

()

(
)
(
)

9.2.2
(loan stock)

154

(bonds debentures)

1 9 9 7
1 0 0 8
1 0 0 1 5(2 0 1 2)
1 5 8
1 9 9 9
8 8

(tax shield)
()

-
-
-

155

9.2.3

( 9 . 5 )

( 9 . 5 ) k e (
)

2 1

(9.5) (

( 2 . 7 )2 ( 2 . 7 )
)

156

P 0 D
k e ( 9 . 6 )

2 0 1 . 2 5
k e 0.2/1.250.1616

( 9 . 8 )

g k e

2 . 5 3 0
5 2 3 1 . 5 k e
0.315/2.5+0.0517.6

k e

157

9.2.4

( ) 1 9 9 7
1 0 0 8 2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2
1997
1 0 0( )
1 5 8 1 5

1 0 0 1 5 8 2 0 1 2
1 0 0
k d ( 4
)

8
()

12

8
72.76kd 12

158

8
8 kd
8

k d
( 9 . 1 0 )
2002 61.35
kd

1 6

V b I R
n ()
(9.11)

64 8
8/640.12512.5

6 4

159

8
8
4 0 84 0 3 . 2
( )4.8(8- 3.2)4.8
I(9.12)
K d=I/V b =4.8/64=0.075=7.5%

t
(9.11)
( 9 . 11 )I
( 1-t) 4 0
I 8
4.8I(1-t) kd

k d11.5

9.3

160

( )

9.3.1
(Weighted Average Cost of
C a p i t a lWA C C )
WA C C

7 5 2 5
0 . 7 5 0 . 2 5
k d

(V) ( D)
(E)
V=D+E

800 000

161

200 000 1 000 000

WA C C (D / V
0 . 8 ) (E / V 0 . 2 )

ke20kd12WACC
WACC=(0.2)(0.12)+(0.8)(0.2)=0.18418.4

WA C C
WA C C
WA C C

WA C C
( )

WA C C kek d

WA C C
WA C C
WA C C

WA C C

162

-
-
-

WA C C
WA C C

WA C C
-

9.4
WA C C
- WA C C
WA C C WA C C

WA C C

4 0

163

(Lumby)

. . . -

(1991p.388)
- WA C C
WA C C
WA C C

9.5

WA C C

- WA C C

164

(k e)

k e

( WA C C )
WA C C

WACC

165

WA C C

9.6
9.1

WACC

( )
(a)

( )2 0

24 6
(b) 3.2100
(c) 100 10
8 0 8
100 8
(d) 1 000 000
(e) 30

( a ) ( 1)
(9.9) (

)
k e D 1 /P 0 +g0.24/3.2+0.060.13513.5

(9.14)
3 0
1 0 0 3 7

( ) kd

166

10.9(4 )

1 000 000() 3.2

E3 200 000 800 000(
1 000 000 100
8 0)D800 000V = D + E4 000 000

WACC=(D/V)k d+(E/V)k e

WACC=(0.8/4)(0.109)+(3.2/4)(0.135)=0.129812.98

9.7
1.
2.

3.

4.

5. WA C C

167

1 0

10

10.1

( )

2
1
1

10.2

1 1

169

(
)

2 1
1

3 1 1 0 1 . 3 4
1/3
1

1 000 1 1 150 ()

15(1 0001.15=1 150

) 15
1 1 0
1 1 5
1 000 1 000
1 100
170

10

1 000 1 1 100
1 5 5 0
(1 150-1 100)4.5
(5 0 /1 1001 0 0 ) 1 5
1 1 265
26.5[(1 265-1 000)/1 000 100]

1 5
26.5
(r)
(n)(i)
(1+n)=(1+r)(1+i )

n=26.50.265r=150.15i=100.1
(1+0.265)=(1+0.15)(1+0.1)

2 000
1 350 15 1 958
26.5-89

20 000 3
1 500

171

7 1 500 3
1 500 710 500
1 5 1 0
2 6 . 5
10 500
1 107.7 2 10
8 . 4 3 1 09 . 3 2
1 500 111 550 2
12 705313 980

NPV=-20 000+10 500/1.15+10 500/1.15 2 +10 500/ 1.15 3 3 974

NPV=-20 000+11 500/1.265+12 705/1.2652 +13 980/ 1.265 3 3 976

( 2
3 9 . 3 2 1 0 9 . 3 1 7
)

( )

( )

172

10

1 0 8 7

10.3

173

1 3
2 4
2 4

14 400

(60 000 2 4) 2 4
1 3

18 13 14 400

NPV=-14 000/1.18-14 000/1.18 2-14 000/ 1.18 3

-31 300
2 4

N P V =-14 400/1.18 -14 400/1.18 3-14 400/ 1.18 4

-26 534
4 766

( W D A )
174

10

1
2 5
25 120 000
120 0002 5 30 000 1
30 000 2
25 120 000 30 000
2 90 000 2 5 22 500
3 67 500(90 000 -22 500) 2 5
16 875 2 4
3 1 7 200 (30 000
2 4)2 5 400 (22 5002 4)3 4 050
(16 875 2 4)

10.4

( l e s s o r )
( l e s s e e )

175

1 0-1
1 0-2 1 2(

NPV=-21 000-2 232 -1 993+2 491=-22 734

NPV=-7 143 -6 378 -5 694=-19 215

10-1

-21 000

-21 000

-21 000

-2 500

-2 500

-2 232

-2 500

-2 500

-1 993

-2 500

3 500

2 491

176

6 000

10

10-2

0
1
2
3

0
-8 000
-8 000
-8 000

0
-7 143
-6 378
-5 694

10.5

177

178

10

10.6
1 0 . 1

35 000 5 1 000
1 0 3 5 2
7 8

( )
( 3)

1
2
3
4
5

5
5
5
7
7

101.05=10.05
10.501.05=11.03
11.031.05=11.58
11.581.07=12.39
12.391.07=13.26

(1+)
1.081.05=1.134
1.08 21.05 2 =1.286
1.0831.05 3 =1.458
4
1.08 1.053 1.07=1.685
1.08 51.05 31.07 2 =1.947

1 000( )

(
) 8 B 1 5

179

3 . 9 9 2 7 1 10 000(10 1 000)
39 927 35 000 4 927

10.7
1.
2.

3.
4.

5.

180

11

11.1

( )

11.2

182

11

11.3

( )

183

11.4

184

11

11.5

11.6
1.

185

2.
3.

4.
5.

186

A
1

188

189

190

B
1

192

193

194

1. Hawkins, C. J. and Pearce, D. W (1971) Capital Investment

Appraisal, Basingstoke: Macmillan.
2. Lumby, S. (1991) Investment Appraisal and Financial
Decisions, London: International Thomson Business Press.
3. Sangster, A. (1993) 'Capital Investment Appraisal Techniques:
A Survey of Current Usage', Journal of Business Finance and
Accounting 20(3): 307-32.

196