Thorium in the new economy

Chris van der Merwe

Rare Earths Minor Metals Exploration & Production
10 October 2012

1. Adam Smith
2. Population growth dynamics
3. Population and affluence
4. Population and earths carrying capacity
5. Planetary boundaries
6. The new economy and ipat
7. Economic transition dynamics and drivers

Adam Smith An Inquiry into the

Nature and Causes of the Wealth
of Nations, 1776.
Economies will eventually reach a
stationary state when they have
acquired that full complement of
riches which the nature of its soil
and climate allowed it to acquire;
which could therefore advance not
further and which was not going
backwards.

Population

Population

Population and affluence

At current
consumption
levels the earths
resources are 40%
over utilised
At developed
world
consumption
levels, humanity
will need more
resources

It seems as if everybody wants to live like an American

Even the Americans!

Population scenarios, impact and carrying capacity

The human populations need
for oil and how oil fuels our
food production

Peak:
- Oil
- Coal
- Gas
- Water
- Food?
So are we in overshoot?

The result of human activity on earth is pushing against ten planetary boundaries that should
not be crossed. The result of crossing these boundaries is a non-linear, erratic reaction that we
cannot predict or control.
1. Climate change due to atmospheric CO2 concentration
2. Rate of biodiversity loss due to extinction
3. The nitrogen cycle as nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere
4. The phosphorous cycle as phosphorous flows into the ocean
5. Stratospheric ozone depletion
6. Ocean acidification
7. Global freshwater depletion
8. Change in land use as land is converted for human use
9. Atmospheric aerosol loading
10. Chemical pollution in emissions, pollutants and waste

The result of human activity on earth is pushing against ten planetary boundaries that should
not be crossed. The result of crossing these boundaries is a non-linear, erratic reaction that we
cannot predict or control.
1. Climate change due to atmospheric CO2 concentration
2. Rate of biodiversity loss due to extinction
3. The nitrogen cycle as nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere
4. The phosphorous cycle as phosphorous flows into the ocean
5. Stratospheric ozone depletion
6. Ocean acidification
7. Global freshwater depletion
8. Change in land use as land is converted for human use
9. Atmospheric aerosol loading
10. Chemical pollution in emissions, pollutants and waste
The limits for the first three resource-supports have already been exceeded
As a world population we are in uncharted territory and an increased call for a new economy

World leader summit just prior to the October 2008 financial crash on
Oil price exceeding $140/barrel
Escalating food prices and food riots
Newsweek, 13 October 2008 The Future of Capitalism, questioning the banking and
other financial systems and declaring the end of Neo-Liberalism
Economist The end of debt-financed consumerism and deregulated financial
speculation, declaring a new normal characterised by- Lower growth rates
- Constrained consumer demands
- More public debt
- Higher taxes
- Reduced fiscal spending
- Restraints on speculative financial profiteering

What did the old economists say about the new economy?
Malthus
"The power of population is so superior to the power of the
earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death
must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices
of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation.
They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and
often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they
fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics,
pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep
off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be
still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear,
and with one mighty blow levels the population with the
food of the world".
Malthus T.R. 1798. An essay on the principle of population.
Chapter VII, p61

What did the old economists say about the new economy?
Garret Hardin The Tragedy of the Commons
"The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the
situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently
and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will
ultimately deplete a shared limited resource, even when it is
clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to
happen".
Garret Hardin 1968. Science journal

What did the old economists say about the new economy?
Joseph Schumpeter Creative Destruction
Denotes a process of industrial mutation that incessantly
revolutionizes the economic structure from within,
incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a
new one, also called disruptive technology"
Joseph Schumpeter 1942. Capitalism, Socialism and
Democracy

i=PxAxT

Economic transition dynamics

Technological Revolution

New Technologies and

Redefined Industries

New and Redefined Infrastructures

First 1771 onward

Industrial Revolution
Britain

Mechanisation

Canals
Roads
Water wheels

Second 1829 onward

Age of steam and railway
Britain, Europe, USA

Coal fuelled steam engines

Iron and coal mining
Railways

Rail infrastructure
Ports

Third 1875 onward

Age of steel, electricity and
heavy engineering
USA and Germany leapfrogging
Britain

Steel and heavy engineering

Electrical equipment
Copper and cables
Canned and bottled food

Worldwide shipping
Worldwide rail
Bridges and tunnels
Telegraph and telephone
Electrical distribution networks

Economic transition dynamics

Technological Revolution

New Technologies and

Redefined Industries

New and Redefined Infrastructures

Fourth 1908 onward

Oil, automobiles and mass
production
USA and Europe

Mass produced cars, engines

Cheap petrochemicals
Home appliances
Radio and TV
Refrigerated and frozen foods

Networked roads, rail, ports and

airports
Worldwide telecoms
Broadcasting

Fifth 1971 onward

Age of information and
telecommunication
USA, Europe and Asia

Cheap micro electronics

Information reduction and
mobility

International digital communication

Sixth

Renewed thinking required of which technologies will support

sustainability and growth within limits to redefine industries and
infrastructure - transitions

Transition drivers
Driven by
- crisis, creatively destroying the then existing technologies and
hierarchies of power;
- a natural resource; and
going through a natural cycle of innovation, investor frenzy, bubble and devaluation,
reorganisation, synergy and maturity; recognising the role of inventors, investors and state
regulation.
Does Thorium as an energy source fit this bill and where is it in the natural cycle of
innovation locally and internationally?
Population scenarios
9Bn, 4Bn, 2Bn and 1Bn scenario
This world needs a new and a clean energy source
Technological solution or wait-and-see approach

Are we developing Thorium as a new energy source?

False
True

Human population will

keep increasing

Yes, significant action taken

No action taken

Still the right thing to do:

clean energy
as custodians of the earth
fossil fuel depletion

Status quo until fossil fuels run out

Money well spent

New energy source
Cost effective, safe and reliable base
load energy
Countered the effects of Climate
Change
Humans adapted to survive

Worst case scenario when the world runs out of fuel, resulting in
global catastrophe on all levels economic, political, social,
environmental.
Results:
Climate change due to the continued use of fossil fuels;
war over scarce resources;
famine;
disease; and
economic collapse.

We dont need to know with absolute certainty whether the human population will
increase or not to decide on the right thing to do.

What a new source of energy could achieve for the human

populationNew models
of habitation

What a new source of energy could achieve for the

human populationAgriculture

What a new source of energy could achieve for the

human populationVertical Farming

What a new source of energy could achieve for the

human populationWater treatment; Dhahran 10million gallons/day

Questions to address on Thorium

Technological solution
- Cost
- Safety
- Location
Political willpower
- China and India
- Europe
- USA
Social sentiment
- Power shift
- Lobbying

Thank you

OEEC & OECD

The Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC), was formed in

1948 to administer American and Canadian aid in the framework of the Marshall
Plan for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II. It started its operations
on 16 April 1948. Since 1949, it has been headquartered in the Chateau de la
Muette in Paris, France. After the Marshall Plan ended, the OEEC focused on
economic questions.
In the 1950s the OEEC provided the framework for negotiations aimed at
determining conditions for setting up a European Free Trade Area, to bring the
European Economic Community of the six and the other OEEC members together
on a multilateral basis. In 1958, a European Nuclear Energy Agency was set up
under the OEEC.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, French:
Organisation de coopration et de dveloppement conomiques, OCDE) is an
international economic organisation of 34 countries founded in 1961 to stimulate
economic progress and world trade. It is a forum of countries committed to
democracy and the market economy, providing a platform to compare policy
experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices, and coordinate domestic and international policies of its members