Philippine Economic Update 2015

Philippine economy rose 5.6% in 2015 1st-3rd Qtrs

Posted faster 6% growth in 3rd Qtr

Recent growth supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals,

i.e., stable inflation, interest rates, and fiscal & external position.
Higher growth trajectory amid new mediocre condition in developed
economies, and new normal in China and developing countries.
Low middle-income economy with US$2,850 per capita in 2014.
GDP, in Billion Pesos at Constant Prices
2000 2015 Q3
6.2%

4.4%

6,303 6,485 6,721

2000

2001

2002

8,301
7,055 7,528 7,888

2003

2004

2005

2006

8,850 9,218 9,324

2007

2008

2009

GDP constant
Basic data: National Accounts, NSCB, various years WB Indicators 2015

10,036 10,403

2010

2011

11,110

11,908

12,634

GDP /cap US$2,850

GNI /cap US$3,440
GDP /cap US$8,300 (PPP)
5.6%
9,528

2012

2013

2014 2015 S1

Manufacturing, financial, real estate slowed down

Construction and transport accelerated

GDP by sector
(in billion PHP) 2014
Public Admin,
503

Growth of GDP by sector, %

2014 Q1-Q3

2015 Q1-Q3

Agriculture

0.5

0.4

Mining

4.7

-3.9

Manufacturing

8.5

5.4

Construction

7.1

8.9

Utilities

2.2

4.9

Transport & Communication

6.8

7.4

Trade

6.6

6.7

Financial services

6.7

5.4

Real estate & business svcs

8.4

7.0

Other services

3.8

8.2

6.0

5.6

Sector

GDP

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. November2015

R.E. & Business

Svcs, 1,553

Other
Services,
1,174

Financial
Svcs, 989

Trade, 2,243

Trans &
Comm, 783 Utilities, 412

* Others include education, health, hotels &

restaurants, recreation, and others

Agriculture,
1,428

Manufacturing,
2,604

Construction,
828

Mining,
125

Economic activities concentrated in Luzon

Central Visayas and Davao regions lead Vismin

Region

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. May2015

GDP/cap, PhP

PHILIPPINES

126,579

NCR

365,629

Calabarzon

141,891

Cordillera Autonomous

132,612

Central Visayas

113,391

Davao

107,479

Northern Mindanao

104,242

Central Luzon

104,081

Ilocos

77,929

Soccsksargen

77,662

Mimaropa

72,041

Zamboanga

70,074

Cagayan Valley

68,317

Western Visayas

66,757

Caraga

59,941

Eastern Visayas

59,654

Bicol

45,798

ARRM

30,602

Consumer spending sustained

Clothing rebounded 3.9% in 3rd qtr from declines in 1st-2nd qtrs

Food & beverages growth increased

Above-average growth in transport, recreation, restaurants, & alcoholic bevs.
Growth of consumer spending by category, %
2014 Q1-Q3

2015 Q1-Q3

Food & beverages

4.3

5.7

Alcoholic beverages

11.1

6.5

Clothing

5.3

-4.5

Housing & utilities

4.8

2.7

Furnishings

5.9

2.0

Health

13.1

8.2

Transport

11.4

11.9

Communication

2.3

6.5

Recreation

4.0

9.2

Education

5.4

3.0

Restaurants & hotels

8.7

10.3

Miscellaneous

5.4

7.9

Total spending

5.6

6.1

Category

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. November2015

Consumer spending by category

(in billion PHP) 2014
Restaurant
hotels

Others

Education
Recreation
Communic
ation

Food &
beverages
Transport

Health
Furnishings

Housing
utilities
Clothing

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. January2015

Alcoholic
beverages

Vastly improved overall competitiveness

Ranked 47nd overall.
GDP (PPP) per capita (int'l $), 1990-2014
8,000

Key indicators, 2014

7,000

Population (in millions) . 99.4

GDP (US$ billions) .. 284.0
GDP per capita (US$) . 2,865
GDP (PPP) as share (%) of the world total 0.64

5,000

Philippines

Emerging and Developing Asia

6,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Global Competitiveness Index

Rank
(out of 140)

GCI 2015-2016 ................ 47 .. 4.4

GCI 2014-2015(out of 144) ................... 52 .. 4.4
GCI 2013-2014(out of 148) ................... 59 .. 4.3
GCI 2012-2013(out of 144) ................... 65 .. 4.2
GCI 2011-2012(out of 142) ................... 75 .. 4.1

Strengths

Score
(1-7)

Problematic factors

Source: WEF Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, WB Indicators 2015

Market size and GDP

Staff training
Financial market development
Business sophistication

Inefficient bureaucracy (77th)

Inadequate supply of infrastructure (90th)
Corruption (despite 48 ranks jump to 77th)
Complexity of tax regulations

Thank you