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Uncertainty Analysis
Calibration of an Instrument
Example 1
You wish to determine the accuracy and repeatability of your bathroom
scale in terms of kg. You measure calibration-standard masses (with an
accuracy rating of 0.0005 kg) over the range of the scale. The range of the
scale is 0 100 kg. Your scale has 1 kg increments but you can make out
half increments (i.e. the resolution is 0.5 kg). Following ANSI/ISA 51.1, you
find the results shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Weigh scale calibration data.
Scale Reading (kg)
Standard (kg) Up Down Up Down Up
0.000
0.0
0.0
20.000
19.5
21.0 22.0 19.0
19.5
40.000
43.0
39.0 39.5 40.0
41.0
60.000
60.0
59.5 61.0 58.0
59.5
80.000
80.0
82.0 79.5 79.0
80.0
100.000
100.0
99.5
100.0
Down
0.0
20.0
39.0
61.0
79.5
Solution
The easiest way to find the accuracy and repeatability is to make a deviation
table shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Weigh scale deviation data.
Standard (kg)
0.000
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
Max. Dev.
of Ups (kg)
2.5
3.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
Max. Dev.
of Downs (kg)
0.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
3.0
According to ANSI/ISA 51.1 the measured accuracy of the scale is +3.0/-2.0 kg.
Notice that the accuracy is not symmetric. If the error was random and
normally distributed, and enough measurements were taken, it would be expected that the accuracy would be symmetric. In this course, we will report
2
the accuracy symmetrically using the most conservative estimate. This would
be similar to the accuracy rating given by a manufacturer. This gives an accuracy of 3.0 kg or 3% Full Scale (or FS) or Span. We will state the
accuracy this way because: 1) it makes further uncertainty analysis easier,
and 2) we rarely have time to repeat the experiment enough times to ensure
random occurrences do not skew our results (typically a minimum of five up
and five down traverses are used).
The repeatability is simply the maximum deviation between repeated
measurements of the same value approached from the same direction. In this
case the repeatability is 3.5 kg or 3.5% of span.
Note: According to ANSI/ISA 51.1, if the accuracy rating of the standard
is less than one tenth of the accuracy of the instrument tested, then the
accuracy rating (or inaccuracy) of the standard may be ignored. Since the
accuracy rating of the masses is 0.0005 kg and the accuracy of the scale is
3.0 kg, the uncertainty in the masses is simply ignored.
Uncertainty in a Measurement
Lets say you know the accuracy of an instrument and you use the instrument
to measure some property. What is the uncertainty in that measurement?
This section will explain how to determine the uncertainty in an experimental
measurement, but first we must cover a few important definitions.
The error is defined as the difference between the true value and the
measured value. Since we can never know the true value of a property we
can NEVER know the error in the measurement. What we can do is estimate
the uncertainty in our estimate of the true value. The uncertainity is simply
the estimate of the error with a given confidence interval.
The International Standards Organization (ISO) defines two types of uncertainty:
1. Type A Uncertainty (Px ) The uncertainty estimated from the data,
sometimes this is called precision or repeatability uncertainty. (However, as we will see later, this is not the same repeatability as defined
above in the ANSI/ISA standard. Therefore, I will try to stick to the
term precision when discussing Type A uncertainty.)
2. Type B Uncertainty (Bx ) Uncertainties that cant be analyzed from
3
the data and must be estimated from other sources. Sometimes this is
called systematic or bias uncertainty.
The total uncertainty (Ux ) in a measurement is:
qX
Bx2 + Px2
Ux =
2.1
(1)
(2)
where is the true mean value of the property, x is the mean of the measurements, zc/2 is the z-score of the normal distribution with c% confidence,
Sx is the standard deviation of the measurements, and n is the number of
Sx
measurements taken. Therefore, the estimate of the true value is x zc/2
n
Sx
with c% confidence. The term zc/2 is simply the precision uncertainty
n
Sx
(i.e. Px = zc/2 ).
n
If the sample size is small (n <30), the t-distribution must be used,
therefore:
Sx
Px = t 2 ,
(3)
n
where = 1 c, and = n 1 is the degrees of freedom. Values for the
t-distribution are shown in Figure 1.
Note: A confidence interval of 95% is almost universally used in calculations.
2.2
Bias Uncertainty
Bias error will consistently introduce error in our measurement and since it
is systematic there is no way to determine it from making repeated measurements. Therefore we are left to making estimates of this uncertainty (see
4
(4)
Therefore, Px = 2.776
= 0.92 kg.
5
In this case we estimate the bias uncertainty as 3 kg. Therefore,
p
p
Ux = Bx2 + Px2 = (3 kg)2 + (0.92 kg)2 = 3.1 kg
6
(6)
2.3
Ideally several measurements are taken of a property to minimize the precision uncertainty. However, it may occur that only one measurement is
possible. If this is the case Eq. 3 will no longer hold because Sx and t 2 , are
undefined. In this case it is common to estimate the precision uncertainty
as,
Px zc/2 e 2e ,
(7)
where e is the standard deviation of measurements that were taken at some
other time with the same instrument (e.g. when the instrument was calibrated), and where the zc/2 2 for a 95% confidence interval.
Example 3
You weigh yourself once with the bathroom scale described in Example 1
and obtain a measurement of 62.5 kg. Estimate your mass and give the
uncertainty with 95% confidence.
Solution
Since you have only made one measurement you must estimate the precision uncertainty using the single-sample assumption. In this case you can
use the calibration data in Example 1 to find e . The standard deviation of
all the data points in Table 2 is 1.02 kg. Therfore,
Px 2(1.02 kg) = 2.04 kg
(8)
and
Ux =
p
p
Bx2 + Px2 = (3 kg)2 + (2.04 kg)2 = 3.6 kg
(9)
Propagation of Uncertainty
3.1
y
y
y
dx1 +
dx2 + +
dxn
x1
x2
xn
(10)
y y
1 5 + . . .
(12)
x1 x5
will disappear. It can be proved that these cross products will vanish if
the errors are symmetrically distributed random values that are statistically
independent of each other. Neglecting cross products leads to a simple
expression for the mean square uncertainty
+
2y
2
n
X
y
xi
i=1
2i
(13)
3.2
dxi
xi
(14)
(16)
E2
R
2
2
P
P
=
E +
R
E
R
2
2
P
P
E2 2
E4 2
2
p =
E +
R = 4 2 E + 4 R
E
R
R
R
2p
E4
to get fractional uncertainty
R2
10
2 2
2P
R
E
+
=4
2
P
E
R
p
P
= 4(0.02)2 + (0.015)2 = 0.043
P
which is a 4.3% probable error for power. For current, first solve E = IR
for I to make I the dependant variable.
I=
E
R
2
2
I
I
=
E +
R
E
R
2
2
E
1
E +
R
=
R
R2
2I
E2
for fractional error
R2
2 2 2
I
E
R
=
+
I
E
R
or
p
I
= (0.02)2 + (0.015)2 = 0.025
I
which is a 2.5% estimate of the error for current.
Divide by I 2 =
Alternate Solution
Because the equations for power and current are purely multiplicative,
take ln value of both sides
E2
R
ln P = 2 ln E ln R
P =
differentiate
dP
dE dR
=2
P
E
R
Note that this equation shows that uncertainties in E are a factor of 2
more important than uncertainties in R. This is because the exponent of E
is 2 in the equation for P . Interpret differentials as s and square
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2
P
P
P
p
2 2
E
R
= 2
+
E
R
I
E
R
Interpret dI as I ect.
2
I
2
E
2
R
12
Solution
The noise signals are random and uncorrelated with each other, so
their variances (i.e. mean square
p levels) add, and the RMS combined noise is
= (0.003 V)2 + (0.005 V)2 = 0.0058 V
The combined signal looks like this
Example 6
The volume of a block of gold 2 cm 5 cm 4 cm is measured with a
micrometer. Find the uncertainty in volume measurement if
a.
A random (careless) error 2% occurs in length L, width
W , and height H
b.
The micrometer reading is always 2% too small
this will illustrate the difference between random uncorrelated errors and
systematic dependant errors.
13
Solution
a.
Volume V = LW H
2
2
2
V
V
V
2
V =
L +
W +
H
L
W
H
= (W HL )2 + (LHW )2 + (LW H )2
3/2
2
5 3/2
3
1/2
BH 0.2 H
H
B ) + 3.33
2
2
2
H 3/2
2H
BH 3/2 0.2H 5/2
2
+
3
BH 1/2 21 H 3/2
2
H
BH 3/2 0.2H 5/2
!2
For weir # 1
2Q
= 4.02H + 0.552H = 4.552H
2
Q
For weir # 2
2Q
= 0.5102H + 2.042H = 2.552H
2
Q
Thus, weir # 2 is the better because it produces the smallest flow
measurement error. So, a broad weir with shallow depth H is better than a
narrow weir operating at a larger flow depth.
15
Example 8
The moment of inertia of a cylinder of radius r, length L and density is
given by
mr2
Ix =
2
where the mass m = r2 L if the uncertainty in is 2% and the
uncertainty in L is 1%, how precisely must we measure r in order that the
uncertainty in Ix is less than 5%?
Solution
Combining the two equations, the dependant variable, Ix , is
4
r L
2
Taking ln values of both sides of this purely multiplicative equation
Ix =
ln(Ix ) = ln
Then
+ ln + 4 ln r + ln L
2
d
dr dL
dIx
=0+
+4 +
Ix
r
L
From which we can see that the uncertainty in radius r is four times as
important as uncertainties in of L.
Squaring
2 2
2 2
Ix
r
L
=
+ 16
+
Ix
r
L
2
r
(0.05)2 = (0.02)2 + 16
+ (0.01)2
r
we find
r
= 0.011
r
so the radius r must be in error no more than 1.1%, and independent of
error in L (e.g. use a different ruler, and a different person to read it).
16