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Challenge in Urban Flood Mitigating

System: Decision Support based on CyberPhysical-Human Infrastructure

Dadet Pramadihanto1), Wahyu T Sesulihatien1,2), Soffi Patrisia1), Shiori Sasaki2),

Yasushi Kiyoki2)

Electronics Engineering Polytechnic Institute of Surabaya, Indonesia

Keio University, Shonan Fujisawa Campus, Japan

Abstract. Currently, floods are not only occurred in the outskirts of the river
course, but also in the urban area, especially in the big city. The main problem of
urban flood is the fact that it occurs in highly populated areas. It is a global
phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damages and loss of
human lives. All the strategies basically are good for long term mitigation but not
appropriate for solving the real problems when a disaster happens, because it is
static and not real time. To overcome, two main points should be developed: sociocultural knowledge on floods and flood prevention infrastructure development.
Both are correlated to build the settlement of flood problem. Therefore, it is
essential to build an integrated system combining Cyber-Physical-Human. The
proposed system includes (1) physical layer that consist of sensors rainfall and river
water levels and satellite sensors, (2) abstract layer consist of flood modelling (3)
interaction with human .Mitigation system based Cyber - Physical - Human will be
very useful for agencies related to flood control and as a decision making tool for
the government and society at large. Surabaya is chosen as study area

Keywords. Cyber-Physical-Human,

urban flood,



Indonesia is known as one of the vulnerable countries to flood disaster. Currently,
floods are not only occurred in the outskirts of the river course, but also in the urban
area, especially in the big city in Indonesia [1]. Flooding in urban areas is not only in
the consequence of nature-made phenomenon such as heavy rainfall but also man-made
event associated with their activities with lack of drainage [2]. The main problem of
urban flooding is the fact that it is occurred in highly-populated areas. It is a global
phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damages and loss of human
lives. [3] For this reason, an effective strategy in mitigation plays the important role.
The strategies in mitigation are different for every country. For example, in Ho
Chi Minh ,Vietnam, mitigation is focused on infrastructure planning [4], in
Bangkok ,Thailand, adaptation planning in climate change is chosen as solution [5 ], in
Brisbane ,Australia, adaptation strategies addressing flood risk management issues of
an urban area with intensive residential and commercial uses [6]. In Indonesia, the
strategy is emphasized on the infrastructure planning based on the history of floods
happened in past [7]. All strategies basically are good for long term mitigation but not
appropriate for solving the real problems when a disaster happens, because it is static
and not real time. Some research in several countries propose another real-time method
based on the characteristics of their countries. In Bombay, real-time mitigation is
implemented to maintain flow at pre-determined levels [8], and UK applied a system to
predict the spatial and temporal distribution of both rainfall and surface flooding [9].
All methods are not comparable, because they are all unique in accordance with the
cultural and geographic condition.
In Surabaya, flood mitigation involves not only planning but also community
participation [10]. From this point of view, there are two main points should be
developed: socio-cultural knowledge on floods and flood prevention infrastructure
development. Until now, flood management in Surabaya is sporadic and unstructured
[11]. Therefore, it is essential to build an integrated system that consist of a water
sensor (rain, river streams, etc.), remote sensing by satellite (land use, DEM, etc.),
drainage networks (river, drainage, dams), and people (human, government and policy
makers), and cyber-infrastructure to a model and ingrate them. The integration is
famous as Cyber-Physical-Human System.
This paper addresses to build prototype of Cyber Physical Human for mitigating
urban flood in Surabaya. This system includes physical rainfall sensor flood modeling
and pattern of drainage system as a picture of city characteristic. Output of the system
is real time prediction of flood spreading as an early warning system. The main impact
is an early response and evacuation by prediction of flood area. In long-term, it will
built flood history map that can be used for flood prevention infrastructure drainage
networks development planning.
1. An Approach on the CPH for Urban Flood
Cyber - Physical - Human (CPH) is a new research field that integrates cyber
(virtual world), physical (sensor) and human (interaction) [12][13][14]. These systems
are often implemented for public safety aspect, for example emergency disaster [13]
and evacuation [14]. CPH system consists of three main components: the physical
elements to be controlled, cyber elements that represent communication links and

software, and human social interaction as a representation relating to the physical

elements that are controlled [12]. Framework of CPH is focused on the issue in which
is constructed by the scenario [15]. CPH framework is prepared from element with
refer to the environment; the main elements of the CPH is a sensor system, an abstract
layer, and human scenario.
In this study, we focus on mitigation system of flooding in urban areas which
characteristics is different with river flood mitigation .Two main aspect of mitigation in
this study are processing data of sensors: environment and satellite, and a predicting
flooded areas to prevent greater damage. The prediction data will be input for DSS
evacuation and disaster response.
This system is expected to be useful for every different level. For example floodrelated agencies can perform decision in real time condition, people will get
information about the level of flood hazards in their respective regions, specific
communities such as industrial or business can follow up the information to rescue
their assets and Government can develop decision-making relating to the handling of
the disaster and post- disaster recovery.
2. Systems Design and Case Study of Urban flood in Surabaya City
Urban flood management emphasis on developing a cyber-infrastructure for urban
flood management. Cyber structure will be employed for handling the data collection
and integration, the data management, data mining and knowledge extraction.
Methodological approach in line with the phases of disaster management: that is
preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery. In general, the system is illustrated in
Figure 1.

Figure 1. Overall System

Figure 1 shows overall flood management system in Surabaya. System consists of
monitoring, early warning, mitigation, evacuation system and information
dissemination system. In this research we collaborate with Keio University to

analyze impact of disaster and provide recommendation policy based on Keio

University model. In this paper, we focus on flood spreading model for
2.1. Abstract Layer: Mitigation Modeling
Disaster response in urban flood management generally relates to control, flood
mitigation, evacuation, and disaster relief during floods. Mitigation will focus on the
spread of a flood with the spatiotemporal analysis. System design is illustrated in figure
2. While the evacuation and disaster response focused on the evacuation of residents
and optimization of alternative roads during flood period.
Figure 2 shows the system for modelling spread of flood. Based on the satellite
images, land elevation, drainage network, flood histories and water level/rain sensors
to model the flood spread. On satellite images with a resolution of 30m by 30m per
pixel we implement 2-dimensional cellular automata lattice/cell, where each cell has
the information land elevation, land infiltration, and land classification (land,
drainage/river, road, greenery). These parameters will be discussed in section 2.2.
The procedure is as follows:
a. Rain pour in into the certain areas, as a nature of water, the water flooded the cell
with the lowest elevation. If the rainfall exceeds the infiltration capacity of the land,
the water overflows into the next lowest cell. This process will continuous until it
reaches saturating condition

If the cell is part of a drainage channel or river, the water will filling the cell
drainage pathways.


From the results of (a) locations spread flooding can be determined and flood
inundation area can be obtained by counting the number of cell are flooded.


From the results of (a) depth of inundation flood can be predicted by calculating
the difference in highest elevation cell and the lower elevation in the area.


On the other hand, if the water filling in drainage channel is over its capacity, the
water will overflow. The flow of water will be spreader and predicted by following
procedure (a).


When the rain stopped, the procedure (a) can be used to calculate flood subsidence.

Figure 2. Flood spread modeling.

Mitigation scenario proposed in this paper is based on the pattern of the spread.
Spread prediction involves processing the sensor data of rainfall, topographic data from
satellites, and classification of soil types. This prediction will apply on each lattice of
cellular automata, a technique similar to the GIS-based urban flood inundation model
(GUFIM) [16] to calculate the volume of water in each lattice.

R ( t , x , y )=P ( t , x , y ) F ( t , x , y )D ( t , x , y )


where, R(t, x, y) is the excess rain water volume (in m3), P(t, x, y) is the total volume of
rainfall, F(t, x, y) is the total volume of rain water is absorbed, and D(t, x, y) is the total
volume of the incoming rainwater drainage (rivers, water pump, etc.).
The relations between the absorption capacity of the soil and time is expressed in
the following Horton equation:

F ( t , x , y ) =f c +(f 0 + f c )ekt


where, f0 is the infiltration capacity (soil absorption capacity) at any time, f0 is the
initial infiltration capacity at t = 0, fc is the infiltration capacity after reaching a
constant, k is a positive constant that depends on the soil and plant ground cover, t is
the time.
Total volume entering the drainage is

D (t , x , y )=QtA
where Q is the water discharge, t is time, A is the cross-sectional area of drainage.
Excess rainwater R(t, x, y) is a dynamic, subject to change as influenced several
variables. But in essence the water will tend towards a lower place. If the same

elevation, the water will remain stagnant.

Spread flooding predicted by cellular automata method based on mathematical
models of flow in equation (2). Figure 3 shows the 2-dimensional lattice (cell) of
cellular automata with von Neumann neighborhood [17].

Figure 3. Cellular Automata arrangement.

Neighborhood cells are cells that work on the status of a cell in cellular automata.
Neighborhood of a cell generally consists of the cells in the vicinity. One model is the
Von Neumann neighborhood, where the neighboring cells are shaped as a diamond.
This scheme can be used to define a set of cells that surround a particular cell (x 0, y0),
which can affect the development of two-dimensional cellular automata on a square
grid. The radius of the Von Neumann neighborhood is defined by equation 2.3.

N v(x0, y 0)={ ( x , y ) :| xx 0|+ y y 0 r }

Illustration Von Neumann neighborhood of radius, r = 0, 1, 2, 3 shown in Figure 3.
The number of cells in the Von Neumann neighborhood is with 2r(r+1)+1.
2.2. Physical Layer
In this study, two sensors are employed, physical sensors and remote sensing. A
remote sensing satellite data is operated to perform area characteristic due to flood and
classify them, as well as the elevation of the land. Procedure of satellite data processing
is shown in Figure 8.

Figure 4. Block diagram of Satellite data processing

Input is the raw data from the Landsat 5 TM satellite imagery (Thematic Mapper).
This procedure is took on as follows:
o Separating raw satellite image data based on the wavelength spectrum
o RGB image constructed by combining each pixel of each band to RGB
o The process of calculating NDVI, soil classification, and Cloud Reduction
o Alignment with GIS coordinates so that it can be integrated with GIS.
Image normalization or NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) [18] is a
calculation to determine the image of the level of greenness, in which is represent
initial zoning of vegetation. NDVI can indicate parameters associated with vegetation
parameters, among others, biomass green foliage, green foliage area, and is a value that
can be estimated for vegetation classification. In this data satellite, land use NDVI
value is obtained by the calculation of near infrared, and visible light reflected by
vegetation. NDVI values are obtained by comparing the data reduction, near infrared
and visible with the second summation data. The following calculation formula used on
Landsat satellite imagery:


NIR+ Visible

Where NDVI is numeric processing result of channel 4 and while visible is
numeric-processing result of channel 3.Range of NDVI values is in between -1.0 to
+1.0. Values greater than 0.1 usually indicates increasing degrees of vegetation
greenness and intensity. Value between 0 and 0.1 are generally the characteristics of the
rocks and vacant land, and a value less than 0 indicates the possibility of ice, clouds,

water vapor cloud and snow. Surface vegetation NDVI value ranges from 0.1 to
Savanna land (pasture) to 0.8 for tropical rain forest area.
Further calculation process to find the NDVI is using the data channel 4 as a nearinfrared channel data. So the formula used to find the value of NDVI in Landsat 5
satellite image is as follows:


Band 4Band 3
Band 4+Band 3


From the results of equation (4) and (5), we also obtain data on land and water, but
in case of water, it is also required to compare with RGB values in order to minimize
misclassification, because the NDVI value of water and the clouds are very similar.
For physical layer, we build the hardware system that consists of strain gauge
sensors as rain sensors, and ultrasonic sensors as water level sensors. Block diagram
Wireless Mesh Sensor Network sensor can be seen in Figure 5. Sensor rainfall and
water level is placed on the main drainage channel and the river to monitor rainfall and
water level in the drainage channels and rivers. Each sensor read the water level data,
and stores them on micro slave modules. Whenever there are requests for data from the
server, an SMS containing the measurement data will be transmitted by the micro
masters. This process is based on user demand via short message server at Home

Figure 5. Sensors block diagram

In this study, sensor data is placed in Pintu Air Jagir, located in Jagir River
Surabaya. Rainfall data is measured every 10 minute but regarding with simulation, the
highest rainfall data is chosen as input in simulation.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Study Area : Surabaya City

Surabaya is a 5-million-population city, the former capital of the Russian Empire; it

accumulated a grand cultural and architectural heritage and very expensive usinesses
and industries. And all that treasure lies in the lowland of the Neva River delta, with the
historical center lying at the sea level or mere 1-4m above it.
Over 300 large-scale floods have been recorded in the city history [20]. Figure 1 shows
the location of St.
Petersburg and flood statistics for the past 3 centuries.
3.1. Satellite Image Processing
Satellite image processing for urban flood consist of four procedures as illustrated in
figure 6 (a)-(d). Basically, from Landsat satellite data we put 3 channels:
Band 5 (red): distinguishing types and condition of plants, distinguishing
clouds, snow, ice
Band 4 (green): investigating biomass plants and also differentiates land
boundaries and land-plant-water.
Band 3 (blue): detecting plant.

(a) Result of NDVI and RGB

(b) DEM of Satellite data

(c) Drainage map of Surabaya

(d) Combination of (a), (b) and (c)

Figure 6. Satellite image processing.
The first procedure is NDVI calculation. It is purposed to determine the
classification of an area based on a certain scale. NDVI values are calculated by
equation (8). Classification results are shown in table 1.
Table1. Result of NDVI and RGB
Classification Area

Range of NDVI and RGB

Land and empty land

NDVI = - 0.3 0
R = 16 50, G = 18 59, B = 8 255
NDVI = -1 0.1
R = 110 255, G = R (0,1xR), B = R (0,1xR)
NDVI = 0 1

Grass and shrub

NDVI = 0.15 0.3

Tropical forest

NDVI = 0.35 0.,8


Purpose of NDVI is classifying every pixel data in term of land use. The result will
be matched with Horton coefficient as attribute of every pixel for running simulation of
urban flood. From table 1, water and cloud have overlap range. Without RGB, water
and cloud similar for range -0.3 to 1 to confirm the result, additional RGB method is

needed. Then water and cloud could be classified as shown in figure 6a. The figure
shows differences between cloud (white), water (blue), and land (red).
The next step is proceeded DEM from satellite data. DEM is digital model or 3D
representation of a terrain's surface. In this case, DEM represent height of every pixel
by gray scale from 0-255, which 0 is the lowest area and 255 is highest area. For
Surabaya, terrain height was in between 0-50 m above the sea. Figure 6 (b) shows the
DEM of Surabaya. The difference of terrain is shown as differences of gray scale.
The next figure (figure 6c) shows drainage network maps. Drainage is the
infrastructure that serves the water from the surface into receiving bodies of water, or
artificial recharge facilities. Flood control is the facility to control the water level in
order to avoid inundation, in this case is water pump system namely Bozem. Receiving
water body is a river, lake, or ocean that receives flow from the urban drainage system.
Both are combined to perform map of city drainage map. We use the latest Surabaya
map from Surabaya city mayor's office, dated on 2012. Classification and hierarchy of
canal is denoted as follows: 0 is not a river, 1 is river, 2 is dot pumps, 3 is bozem, 4 is
secondary canal, 5 is primary canal. This value is performed in matrix for simulating
water volume in drainage system.
Last step is combining three maps in order to obtain appropriate drainage network
coordinates, elevation map (DEM) and land classification map. Finally, the last
physical data is the map in the city of Surabaya, gathered from the Google map. This
map has been adapted to satellite maps, topographic maps, and elevation, and drainage
maps that we have built. The result of the merger is shown in Figure 6d.
3.2. Flood Spreading
In this study, data is gathered from the real data satellite of Surabaya and data of
rainfall from one sensor in Surabaya. The rainfall measure data and rain location is
being input for flood mitigation systems. Then the simulation is conducted based on
equation (1), (2) and (3) for every cell. Every cell counting R(t, x, y), if R(t, x, y) > 0
then rule of CA is fulfilled. The Cellular Automata represent differential equation
where the variable is differences in height. In this study, the differences in height are
obtained from differences of value in DEM from one cell to the neighbor in diamond
pattern. Then the flood spread.
In this simulation, rainfall data is 250 mm as a representation of the most torrential
rain in 2011, with length of rain time is 6 hours. The results are shown in figure 7.

(a) After 2 hours

(b) After 4 hours

( c ) After 6 hours
Figure 7. Simulation result by 2 hours
The left side of figure 7 shows spreading in combination map, while the right side
shows spreading area. The spreading area are mostly starting from around of drainage
system, then spreading toward the certain area, in this case Central of Surabaya. This
pattern in also happened in several big city like Bombay (India)[8], Jakarta (Indonesia),
Brisbane (Australia)[6]. This is the specific characteristic of pure urban flood that is
rare happened in another type of flood such as flash flood, coastal flood or river flood.
In the urban flood, changes in land use are in line with change in infiltration of soil.
The land changes from soil to building or road, where the water-absorbing capacity is
low. [19]. Additionally, in the big city contour of downtown tends to flat. It is make a
sense that the flood leads to spread in down town. This result is important for planning
real time evacuation system during flood session.
Another interesting result from the simulation is fact that spreading is occurs
nonlinear by time In first 2 hours, only several small inundation point, but 2 hours later
it become larger more than twice and the in the third 2 hours almost all area is
inundated. It means response of disaster in urban flood should be conduct as early as
possible before flood happened. Otherwise, cost of the disaster will be increase
dramatically [20].
In term of infrastructure, simulation result show relationship between urban flood
and drainage system as illustrated in figure 8.

Figure 8. Simulation result by 2 hours

In figure 8, most of inundation point in Surabaya starting in area where secondary
and primary canal meet. Theoretically, when water from larger surface section entering
the smaller one, flow of water will increase causing overflowed in this area [21]. This
result could be implemented in planning of infrastructure in the future.
As a validation, simulation result is compared with flood history map of Surabaya,
2011. The result is shown in figure 9.

Figure 9. Simulation result is compared with flood history map of Surabaya

This result is captured in downtown of Surabaya area. The background (white
transparent) is history map while the dark one is simulation result. The result shows
that pattern is similar especially in some areas near by drainage system but failed in
another area. In this study, simulation is run with assumption rainfall is same for all
area, but in fact, mostly uneven rainfall occurs in Surabaya. Also length time of rain is
different in every area. In the future, it should be considered. Then the simulation
included many data from sensors in aggregate [22].
4. Conclusion and Future Work
Integration between physical sensor and modeling as abstract layer for urban flood
mitigation has already conducted. This simulation shows that CPH proposed system is
very useful for real time response during disaster and planning in the future. Future

prospects of CPH for disaster is a dynamic system that is integrated, real time and,
based on local knowledge, because it is a representation of the interaction between
human and natural, with people through the world. Impact derived from the
development of ICT-based disaster management system is a reliable system, privacy,
easy to develop and support national self-reliance in disaster management. The strategy
includes improvement in technical aspect and collaboration among researcher to share
knowledge in disaster management.
In critical situations decisions must be made very fast, therefore the requirement on all
our simulations was a response within minutes, with a maximum of a few hours for
long-term predictions. This restriction determined the methods and codes selected for
simulation of inundation on a city scale. The surface flow dynamics is simulated by the
Dynamic Rapid Flood Spreading Model (DRFSM), developed by the HR Wallingford
team and adapted in our project. The model is based on a computationally efficient
diffusion-wave based inundation approach, sufficiently robust for use in flood risk
models [29]. The limitations of this model are that it is not suitable for very fast
flooding processes like tsunamis, and it can provide only indirect means for assessment
building damages due to the water flows, since it does not solve the energy balance

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