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Due to the U.S. holiday, the next edition will be published on Tuesday, Jan. 19.
WHAT TO WATCH: The U.S. economics calendar is packed, with several major data
reports as well as appearances by Fed officials. U.S. retail sales, the Empire
manufacturing survey and producer prices are all at 8:30 a.m. see a calendar of
forecasts here. New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voter on the
FOMC, speaks about the economy and Fed policy at 9 a.m. Industrial production is
due at 9:15 a.m. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is due at
10 a.m.
ECONOMICS: China's broadest measure of credit jumped in December,
suggesting a stabilizing economy. San Francisco Fed President John Williams, a nonvoter on the FOMC, speaks at 11:10 a.m. and Dallas Fed chief Rob Kaplan, also a nonvoter, takes part in a panel at 1 p.m.
MARKETS: Chinese shares fell into a bear market. Oil fell to a new 12-year low
below $30 a barrel in New York. The freely-traded Chinese yuan in Hong Kong posted
its biggest weekly gain since October, narrowing the discount to the mainland rate.
(All times local for New York.)
Amherst Pierpont
Securities Global
Strategist Robert Sinche
discusses the recent
market volatility,
currencies and shifts in the
yield curve: Tom Keene.
Slow and steady are set to be the watchwords for two of the main U.S. economic indicators
in the coming years. Slow GDP growth, and a steady rise in prices. That's according to the
median estimates in the latest Bloomberg News survey on U.S. data. Economists see
domestic growth holding at 2.4 percent for the next two years, according to the survey,
which was conducted from Jan. 8 to Jan 13. The PCE deflator the Fed's preferred
measure of inflation is expected to rise to 1.3 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2017,
perhaps as transitory factors such as low oil prices abate. That would put inflation just below
the Fed's 2 percent target. See more data forecasts on the terminal.
Ben Baris, Bloomberg Brief Editor
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
What to Expect
Headline retail sales will be negatively
affected by weak gas and auto sales, so
the underlying details will provide a more
reliable snapshot of consumer activity.
Ex-auto sales are projected to rise at a
materially faster pace 0.2 percent
versus 0.4 percent prior than the
headline, as unit motor vehicle sales
were unexpectedly weak in the month.
Gasoline prices continued to drop in
December (minus 5.6 percent); watch for
additional drag on the headline from gas
station sales.
Retail sales excluding automobiles and
gasoline will provide a less distorted
assessment of consumer activity.
Less spending on motor fuels and
household utilities is providing
consumers with additional disposable
income. Gasoline prices fell 69 cents in
the fourth quarter compared with a year
earlier, implying an energy-related tax
cut of about $70 billion (annualized).
While base effects will erode the
magnitude of the implied cut in the
coming months, it is worth keeping an
eye on discretionary spending categories
to better understand how households are
responding.
Retail control, a direct input into GDP,
will provide useful insight on consumer
spending in the GDP accounts. It is
projected to rise 0.3 percent in December,
which should push the quarterly
Read this analysis with additional interactive charts on the Bloomberg terminal here.
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
Read this analysis with additional live charts on the Bloomberg terminal here.
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
CALENDAR
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
SURVEY
PRIOR
8:30
U.S.
-0.10%
0.20%
8:30
U.S.
0.20%
0.40%
8:30
U.S.
0.40%
0.50%
8:30
U.S.
0.30%
0.60%
8:30
U.S.
-0.20%
0.30%
8:30
U.S.
0.10%
0.30%
8:30
U.S.
-1.00%
-1.10%
8:30
U.S.
0.30%
0.50%
8:30
U.S.
Empire Manufacturing
-4
-4.59
9:15
U.S.
-0.20%
-0.60%
9:15
U.S.
Capacity Utilization
76.80%
77.00%
10:00
U.S.
Business Inventories
-0.10%
0.00%
10:00
U.S.
U. of Mich. Sentiment
92.9
92.6
10:00
U.S.
108.1
10:00
U.S.
U. of Mich. Expectations
82.7
Click on the highlighted releases to see the full range of economists' forecasts on the terminal.
OVERNIGHT
Asia
Chinas broadest measure of new
credit surged the most since June as
companies increase borrowing on the
corporate bond market, underscoring a
shift away from reliance on state-backed
banks for funding. Aggregate financing
rose to 1.82 trillion yuan ($276 billion) in
December, according to a report from the
Peoples Bank of China on Friday,
compared with the median forecast of
1.15 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey.
The data shows companies are turning to
alternative sources for credit given
banks reluctance to lend. It also adds to
signs the economy is stabilizing, not
slumping as its falling currency and
plunging stock market seem to suggest.
The Bank of Japan should bolster
stimulus as quickly as possible because
the countrys inflation outlook suggests it
wont reach its price target even after
three years of record asset purchases,
said noted economist Allen Sinai. "The
situation cries out for more stimulus,
Sinai, president of New York-based
Decision Economics Inc., said in an
interview.
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
MARKET INDICATORS
Bloomberg Brief
Economics
jrossa@bloomberg.net
Michael McDonough
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Economics Editors
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James Crombie
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U.S. Economist
Richard Yamarone
ryamarone@bloomberg.net
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