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What is Economics?
Economics is the study of the production and
distribution of goods and services, it is the
study of human efforts to satisfy unlimited
wants with limited resources
It studies how agents allocate scarce resources
amongst alternatives to meet unlimited human
wants
Allocation of resources
Process occurs at many levels
Consumers
Firms
Government
Market System
Allocation decisions impact natural environment
Want decisions to be based upon incentives that reflect
true value to society
Unfortunately decision makers do not consider true value
i choices
in
h i
Need for policy intervention to overcome such market
failure
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Land
Labour
Capital
Entrepreneurship
organises resources
to produce goods
and services
Reference: A. Layton, R. Robinson and I.B. Tucker, Economics for today, Thomson 2002
Contemporary Economics
Macroeconomics Aggregated analysis
John Maynard Keynes in 1936 and 1940
Choices of government
Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve
Fiscal Policy Taxes and Spending
Macroeconomic targets
Income Levels
Inflation
Employment
Contemporary Economics
Mi
Microeconomics
i Disaggregated
Di
t d analysis
l i
Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations in 1776
Choices of consumers (households) and producers (firms)
Two types of Markets
Factor Markets Consumers sell inputs used in
production
d i to firms
fi
Product Markets Firms sell final output to consumers
Three types of analysis
Partial Equilibrium Focus on single factor or good
p amongst
g key
y
Multi-Market Interrelationships
fundamental markets
General Equilibrium Economy as a whole
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Macro vs micro
micro-economics
economics
Microeconomics
Examining individual trees rather
than the wood
Studies decision making by single
individual, household, firm or
industry
Focus on behaviour of small
economic units
E.g. egg industry, will suppliers
decide to supply more less or the
same amount of eggs to the
market
k in
i response to price
i
changes? Will individual
consumers decide to buy more,
gg
less or the same amount of eggs
at new price?
Macroeconomics
Surveys the wood
Studies decision-making for the
economy as a whole
Examines economy-wide
variables, e.g. inflation,
unemployment, money supply,
flows of experts/imports and
international financial capital
Macroeconomic decision makings
considers big picture policies as
the
h effect
ff
off balancing
b l
i the
h ffederal
d l
budget on unemployment, the
effect of changing the money
pp y on p
prices and the effect of
supply
strong economic growth on the
value of the currency.
10
11
Keynesian Economics
An economic theory stating that active
government intervention in the marketplace
g
p
and monetary policy is the best method of
ensuring economic growth and stability.
stability
12
Supply
pp y and Demand
A competitive market is a market in which there are
many buyers and sellers
of the same good or service.
The supply and demand model is a model of how a
competitive market works.
Five key elements in this model:
The demand curve
The supply curve
The set of factors that cause the demand curve to shift, and
th sett off ffactors
the
t
th
thatt cause th
the supply
l curve tto shift
hift
The equilibrium price
The way the equilibrium price changes when the supply and
demand curves shift
Demand Schedule
A demand
d
d schedule
h d l shows
h
how
h
much
h off a
good or service consumers will want to buy
at different prices.
Demand Schedule for Tickets
Price
($ per ticket)
Quantity
demanded
(tickets)
350
5,000
300
6,000
250
8,000
200
11,000
150
15,000
100
20,000
8,000
This
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quantity demanded at any given
price.
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from
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good.demanded
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movement
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curve
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andecrease
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increaseinin
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demand,means
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hifoffoffthe
h
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the demand
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curve:
At
at
one of the goods makes consumers less willing to buy the other
good. Ex.: muffins and donuts.
Complements: Two goods are complements if a fall in the
price of one good makes people more willing to buy the other
good. Ex: squash balls and squash racquets.
Ch
Changes
in
i Income
I
Changes in Tastes
Changes in Expectations
Supply Schedule
A supply schedule shows how much of a good
or service would be supplied at different prices.
Supply Schedule for Tickets
Price
($ per ticket)
Quantity
supplied
(
(tickets)
)
350
8,800
300
8 500
8,500
250
8,000
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Changes in Technology
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Changes
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i Income
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Changes in Expectations
Supply Demand
Supply,
Demand, and Equilibrium
Equilibrium in a competitive market: when the
quantity demanded of a good equals the quantity
supplied of that good.
buyer
y finds a seller and vice versa.
The q
quantityy of the good
g
bought
g and sold at that price
p
is the equilibrium quantity.
IIn
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13
WTO
The
Th World
W ld Trade
T d Organization
O
i ti (WTO)
is the only global international organization dealing with the
rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO
agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the worlds
trading nations and ratified in their parliaments. The goal is to
help producers of goods and services, exporters, and importers
conduct their business. - WTO
Hong Kong joined WTO on 1 Jan 1995
http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/hong_kong_china_e.htm
14
WTO
Location:
L
ti
G
Geneva,
Switzerland
S it l d
Established: 1 January 1995
Created by: Uruguay Round negotiations (198694)
Membership: 150 countries (since 11 January 2007)
Budget: 175 million Swiss francs for 2006
Secretariat staff: 635
Head: Pascal Lamy (director-general)
Functions:
Administering WTO trade agreements
Forum for trade negotiations
Handling trade disputes
Monitoring national trade policies
Technical assistance and training for developing countries
Cooperation with other international organizations
15
WTO
Ch
Challenges
ll
for
f Hong
H
Kong
K
Despite all the opportunities, a more open mainland
China market will not automatically benefit Hong Kong
Kong.
Hong Kong businesses need to overcome the
challenges
g that lie ahead.
For example, foreign banks must currently fulfill the asset
requirement of US$20 billion and various other funding
requirements for setting up a branch in China.
To set up a joint venture commercial retail business in China,
foreign enterprises need to have an annual turnover of more
than US$2 billion and assets of no less than US$200 million.
Th assett requirement
The
i
t for
f joint
j i t venture
t
wholesale
h l
l b
business
i
iis as
high as US$300 million.
16
WTO
IIncreased
d Competition
C
titi
Market liberalization will bring in more outside players, and
thus increase competition
competition, not only from multinationals but
also from the Mainland's own developing indigenous
business sector.
Diminishing Gateway Function
With a more transparent trade regime in the Mainland, Hong
K
Kong's
' gateway
t
function
f
ti will
ill di
diminish
i i h gradually
d ll as more
foreign companies may try to go to mainland directly,
as mainland itself catches up
p through,
g , among
g other things,
g ,
advancement in telecommunications and information
technology.
H
Hong
K
Kong ttrading
di fifirms th
thatt match
t h sellers
ll
and
db
buyers without
ith t
adding any significant value to the process will be faced with
a trend toward more direct dealing
g between customers and
manufacturers in the future.
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
17
WTO
Hong Kong's Competitiveness
Besides external factors, Hong Kong businesses are
facing internal challenges and weaknesses as well.
A major factor that can erode Hong Kong's
competitiveness is our high operating cost.
High salaries and property prices are the two biggest cost items
for many Hong Kong businesses -- the textiles sector being an
obvious example.
Costs for professional services are also high.
18
WTO
What Hong Kong Businesses Can Do
19
PPRD
HK can bridge PPRD, Asean
Chief Executive Donald Tsang says Hong Kong possesses
unparalleled strengths and unique features in bridging the
Pan-Pearl River Delta and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations.
Speaking with Asean business officials in Changsha,
Hunan on June10, 2007, Mr Tsang said Hong Kong's
extensive trade connections with the Mainland provinces
and Asean countries have facilitated import and export
trade between the two regions.
g Kong
g provides
p
As an international financial centre,, Hong
Asean and PPRD enterprises with a diversified and
effective market for raising funds, he added.
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
20
PPRD
Noting the city has extensive global connections
and can facilitate trade between Asean and
PPRD Mr Tsang said PPRD and Asean
PPRD,
enterprises can effectively network with
overseas enterprises by setting up offices in
Hong Kong.
21
Wh t are th
What
the opportunities
t iti offer
ff
to you?
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
22
University
23
CEPA Update
The Hong Kong Special Administrative
g
Government and the Central
Region
People's Government on May 9, 2009
agreed on further services liberalisation
and trade co-operation under the Mainland
and Hong Kong Closer Economic
Partnership Arrangement (CEPA).
24
CEPA
The Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic
Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is the first free trade
agreement ever concluded by the Mainland of China and
Hong Kong. The main text of CEPA was signed on 29
June 2003.
CEPA opens up huge markets for Hong Kong goods and
services, greatly enhancing the already close economic
cooperation and integration between the Mainland and
Hong Kong.
25
CEPA
For Hong Kong, CEPA provides a window of opportunity
for Hong Kong businesses to gain greater access to the
Mainland market
market. CEPA also benefits the Mainland as
Hong Kong serves as a perfect "springboard" for
Mainland enterprises
p
to reach out to the g
global market
and accelerating the Mainland's full integration with the
world economy. Foreign investors are also welcome to
establish
bli h b
businesses
i
iin H
Hong K
Kong to leverage
l
on the
h
CEPA benefits and join hands in tapping the vast
opportunities of the Mainland market
market.
26
CEPA Implementation
CEPA covers 3 broad areas:
Trade in goods - All goods of Hong Kong origin importing into
the Mainland enjoy tariff free treatment, upon applications by
local manufacturers and upon the CEPA rules of origin
(ROOs) being agreed and met.
Trade in services - Hong Kong service suppliers enjoy
preferential treatment in entering into the Mainland market in
various service areas. Professional bodies of Hong Kong and
the regulatory authorities in the Mainland have also signed a
number of agreements or arrangements on mutual recognition
of professional qualification.
Trade and investment facilitation - Both sides agreed to
enhance co-operation in various trade and investment
facilitation areas to improve the overall business environment
environment.
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
27
CEPA Update
Under Supplement VI to the CEPA, the Mainland will
introduce 29 liberalisation measures covering
g 20
service sectors, including two new sectors (research
and development, and rail transport). Thus, the total
number of service sectors covered by CEPA will be
expanded from 40 to 42. Among them, the noteworthy
liberalisation measures are:
On tourism, Mainland travel agents authorised to operate
group tours to Taiwan can organise group tours for
Mainland residents, who hold a valid exit/entry permit for
travelling to and from Taiwan and travel endorsement, to
enter and remain in Hong Kong in transit. This measure
aims to facilitate the travel trade in the Mainland and
H
Hong
K
Kong tto develop
d
l multi-destination
lti d ti ti ttour products.
d t
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
28
CEPA Update
On telecommunications services, HK Service Suppliers
((HKSS)) can distribute in Guangdong
g
g Province
fixed/mobile telephone service cards which can only be
used in Hong Kong.
On audio-visual services, Hong Kong service suppliers
(HKSS) can provide videos and sound recording
(i l di motion
(including
ti picture
i t
products)
d t ) di
distribution
t ib ti services
i
on the Mainland in the form of wholly-owned operations.
Regarding research and development services
services, which is
also a newly added sector, HKSS can set up whollyowned enterprises on the Mainland to provide
research and experimental development services in
the natural sciences and engineering.
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
29
CEPA Update
Mutual recognition of professional qualifications:
Supplement VI to CEPA also includes a number of
measures to encourage mutual recognition of
professional q
p
qualifications as well as technical exchange
g
work among professionals from the accounting,
construction, real estate and printing sectors.
On medical and dental services, Hong Kong pharmacists
can sit for examination and register on the Mainland.
These
Th
measures will
ill provide
id greater
t b
business
i
opportunities for the trade and facilitate the upgrading of
the professional standards of the two places
places.
30
CEPA Update
O
On the
th whole,
h l th
the new measures can h
help
l enhance
h
HKSS' competitiveness in the Mainland.
Such measures will not only help enterprises overcome the
current financial crisis,
but will also promote the long-term economic development of
both sides.
31
As the blueprint
p
of the development
p
of
Guangdong in the next five years, the 12th Five-Year
Plan (2011-2015) of Guangdong sets out a number of
development goals. By 2015, GDP of Guangdong
will increase from RMB 4.5 trillion in 2010 to RMB
6 7 trillion,
6.7
t illi
growing
i
att an annuall rate
t off 8%.
8%
Per capita GDP will increase from RMB 47,000 to
RMB 66,000 with an annual growth rate of 7%.
Besides, Guangdongs total retail sales of consumer
goods will reach RMB 3.5
3 trillion and total imports
and exports will exceed USD 1 trillion in 2015.
The GDP per capita of Guangdong has increased from RMB 370
i 1978 to RMB 47,000
in
47 000 in
i 2010,
2010 representing
i
an annuall growth
h off
14.2%. It is expected that the GDP per capita will increase to RMB
66,000 by 2015, with an annual growth rate of 7%.
In the vast areas south of the Yangtze River, local economies should be consolidated to
form a better co-ordinated economic area called the "Pan-Pearl River Delta Region",
which actually covers eight provinces, one autonomous region and two special
administrative regions plus one municipality directly under the central government.
That is the vision conceived by Guangdong Governor Zhang Dejiang and will be
explored in detail at a forum scheduled to be held early next month.
Liang Guiquan, president of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, the organizer
of the forum as well as the consultant on the notion, talked to China Daily to elaborate on
his win-win theory for economic co-operation on such a vast scale.
Liang explained that every economy has its own unique pace. When a market is fully
developed, one naturally looks outward for further growth. It usually starts with
merchandise, and then graduates to capital.
"Made-in-Guangdong" products have always been popular in neighbouring provinces,
and "in my opinion, we have reached the stage when we will export capital to these
places", said Liang.
Industrial expansion means there will be need for more space. Wherever a market
emerges, manufacturing will follow to better serve this market. Guangdong is actively
developing its service industries now, but eventually that will mature, too. So, in the next
20 years, Guangdong's economic clout will "spill over" to its neighbours and stimulate
the growth in those places.
Liang said that two years ago there was a palpable sense of rivalry of "I grow and you
remain stagnant and that will make me look good". For example, Guangxi was quite wary
of its eastern neighbour and pushed for its own port in the south.
"If you compare the traffic on the two highways, you'll instantly know that economic
growth defies administrative meddling. It has its own logic. The highway from Guangxi
to Guangdong is much busier than the north-south artery inside Guangxi. An economic
bright spot naturally attracts those around it," asserted Liang.
He further maintained that the less-developed areas have to be "pulled along" in growth,
otherwise you won't have a new market or new resources because consumers in those
places would not be able to afford your products and services.
"I used to suggest to provincial-level leaders that when we plan for Guangdong's future,
we will have to keep in mind the surrounding provinces. It's for the benefit of sustainable
growth. Americans don't seem to realize that as they always find trouble with China's
growth," he said, referring to the wave of protectionism and China-bashing in the US.
"This is a situation of interdependence," Liang clarified. "Since Guangdong took off
economically ahead of others, we have the responsibility to bring others along with us.
This does not mean we will dominate them or we'll call the shots. It only means that we'll
take the initiative to serve them in a more co-ordinated manner."
Some of these "neighbours" are members of the "Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic
Region", which, still on the drawing board, comprises Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian,
Hunan, Hainan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hong Kong and Macao.
According to Li Chunhua, who is co-ordinating the meeting, provinces as far away as
Gansu want to come to the forum and discuss the possibility of being included in the
"master plan". "But it would be too far-fetched to call Gansu part of Pearl River Delta
anything," Li said.
Liang cited the example of Hunan Province, where power costs much less than Guangdong.
"If we have this system of co-operation, we can move some of our power-consuming
plants there to take advantage of the cost benefit. Another example is Guizhou, rich in
3
water and coal. It can export power to Guangdong. Yet Guangdong may fear that it has
no control over utility sources. That's why we will need a mechanism to smooth out
wrinkles and guarantee it will benefit everyone."
Liang Guiquan applied the same reasoning to Hong Kong's relations with the rest of
China. "Hong Kong is far ahead of Guangdong. It has already found itself in the dilemma
of economic restructuring, something that Guangdong will encounter down the road."
Liang feels that Hong Kong people, in general, have not adjusted very well.
"They tend to whine a lot as if they were spoilt children. Maybe they have lived the good
life for too long. Everyone knows Hong Kong's strength lies in its service sector. So some
people are saying Guangdong should not develop its service industry, such as ports, so
that there will be no direct competition. They even propose to lure back some of the
manufacturers back to Hong Kong. Nothing could be more foolish than that."
Liang suggested that Hong Kong first broaden its service area to include southern China.
"Just imagine that all the provinces south of the Yangtze River reach the economic level
of Guangdong in the mid-1990s. What a mammoth market that will be for Hong Kong's
service providers."
Liang also said Hong Kong should "upgrade" its service to meet the demands of an everincreasing manufacturing sector on the mainland.
"Better be Jack of all trades than a one-trick pony that can offer only so much," he said.
Hong Kong's strategy should not be to compete with Guangdong, but to join hands with
its northern neighbour in a concerted effort to hasten the development of the vast
surrounding region.
"That will be beneficial to Hong Kong, to Guangdong, and to the whole nation," Liang
expounded.
"Of course, Hong Kong does not need to limit its sights to only one market. It should
look to serving the entire country and playing a major role in its growth," Liang said.
"Hong Kong really needs to be forward-looking. As long as fast growth in South China is
guaranteed for the next 20 years, the positions of Hong Kong and Guangdong will be
rock solid because products will flow through the ports here to the world market. Hong
Kong is irreplaceable. Neither Guangdong nor Shanghai can take its place."
Hong Kong and Guangdong Province should join hands to take on a leading role in the
creation of a new regional economic bloc.
Frederick Lam, executive director of the Trade Development Council, said this yesterday
at a government discussion forum on regional economic co-operation.
'Hong Kong has many distinct advantages, but it must join forces with neighbouring
Guangdong Province to lead the economic development of the Pan-Pearl River Delta
region,' Lam said.
The SAR or the Guangdong Province alone cannot be the 'dragon heads' of the region,
they must combine their strengths, he stressed.
Lam added that the territory's integration with the pan-delta region is in accordance with
world economic trends.
'With a population of 450 million, the region is comparable to the European Union and
NAFTA, and the pan-delta concept can also be compared to these economic entities,' he
added.
The Pan-Pearl River Delta concept, proposed last year by Guangdong provincial Party
secretary Zhang Dejiang, aims to further economic integration in the region.
The concept involves nine provinces and two special administrative regions, namely
Guangdong, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan, Hainan, Hong
Kong and Macao.
Chairman of Hopewell Holdings Gordon Wu said Hong Kong must seize the opportunity
to further integrate with the pan-delta group, which is a burgeoning economic force.
'I believe co-operation with the region is essential for the territory's long-term economic
prosperity. With this new arrangement, we can maximize our advantage as the pan-delta's
window to the world,' Wu said.
Chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries Andrew Leung said Hong Kong
must transcend the concept of being a single city. 'We must eliminate local protectionism,
which is a hindrance to economic integration. When transport and economic barriers are
removed, Hong Kong's businesses will have better access to the region's raw materials,
facilities and talents, furthering collaboration efforts,' Leung said.
To push forward the proposal, the first meeting of the Pan-Pearl River Delta Regional
Co-operation Forum will be held in the territory on June 1. The chief executives of Hong
Kong and Macao and leaders of the nine provinces are expected to attend.
5. A Brief Review
It has ben 23 years since Guangdong designated the 14 cities and counties that make up
the Pearl River Delta as a single geographic entity, which is the subject of the Fourth
Annual Pearl River Delta Conference, "Growth and its Consequences", to be held today
and tomorrow at the Garden Hotel in Guangzhou.
It was in 1992 that party boss Lin Ruo, realising the entire province could not be
urbanised simultaneously, asked that major cities be identified to spearhead the
urbanisation drive so that they could provide the impetus for growth in east and west
Guangdong.
The resulting area covering 41,500 sqkm with a population of 35million people has
witnessed meteoric but patchy growth, with the Four Tigers - Zhongshan, Dongguan,
Nanhai and Shunde - sprinting ahead while backwaters Huizhou, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing
loll in sub-tropical languor.
A decade following its creation, Governor Huang Huahua called for the creation of a
Greater Pearl River Delta in April 2003 as the Yangtze River Delta - which has fewer coordination problems as it is comprised of fewer cities and has a more transparent
investment environment - emerges as a potent threat to the Pearl River Delta's economic
powerhouse position.
Bringing in Hong Kong and Macau was aimed at giving the southern delta an
international edge that could not be matched by the Yangtze River Delta.
Before that there had been calls to attract more Fortune 500 companies, of which 300
have come to Guangdong compared with 400 in Shanghai, although these calls were
viewed negatively by Hong Kong and Macau.
Zhou Yunyuan, a scholar at Sun Yat-sen University's Centre for Hong Kong, Macau and
Pearl River Delta Studies, said: "They felt that Guangdong no longer cared about
investment from Hong Kong and Macau and only wanted to draw the top 500 companies.
They felt used and then discarded."
A few months later in July, Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang asked experts to think about
extending the Pearl River Delta to cover neighbouring provinces.
Despite grand designs, Pearl River Delta experts said the delta was still hamstrung by a
lack of co-ordination that resulted in wasteful duplication, while suggestions to make the
area more dynamic had fallen on deaf ears.
Zhuhai's white elephant airport is a classic case of poor co-ordination and rivalry among
delta cities - but there are more recent examples of their inability to work together.
The construction of a wastewater treatment plant to serve residents in border areas of
Foshan and Guangzhou has been held back because both cities want to build their own
plant even though it does not make economic sense.
Even the integration with Hong Kong has run into a snag recently from Guangdong's
point of view because the city is seen as being high-handed in making unilateral decisions
on the Hong Kong-Macau and Zhuhai bridge.
Zheng Tianxiang, a former director of the research centre, said: "The bridge has alienated
Guangdong's middle- and high-ranking officials because they feel that Hong Kong made
all decisions unilaterally, including choosing landing points."
Escalating cost estimates and a feeling that Hong Kong and Macau were imposing their
wishes on Guangdong were threatening to keep the long-awaited bridge sitting on the
drawing boards, he said.
"They do not understand why [Hong Kong] did not take cost into consideration and now
it is costing 60 billion yuan. It was supposed to be a Build Operate and Transfer project.
Now they want the central government to foot 30 per cent of the cost," he said.
As early as 1995, Professor Zheng advocated the creation of a commission for regional
management but the idea was shot down by the nine mayors who did not want to
relinquish their power.
Guangdong's administrative structure, as in other parts of the mainland, is such that the
vice-governors have responsibilities for different sectors of the economy. There is no one
vice-governor in charge of regional matters, which means regional issues have to be
handled by the governor.
From time to time, the governor may designate a vice-governor to hold a regional
meeting to address a problem but the vice-governor often does not study the problem
leaving his responsibilities poorly discharged.
An informal mayors' forum was created but they met irregularly and have no voting or
veto rights, giving rise to a situation where there are more disputes than solutions.
Professor Zheng suggested setting up a common fund for environmental conservation,
agriculture and basic infrastructure projects but no one was concerned about taking a
regional approach to these projects.
"Each mayor is concerned only with his own city. They are very provincial and do not
understand what it means to be in a win-win situation," he said.
With Hong Kong's and Macau's participation, however, matters improved because when
proposals from Hong Kong and Macau leaders were made to the State Council, it was
relayed to local governments and they accepted such suggestions, Professor Zheng said.
"I feel that there should be more proposals from National People's Congress delegates
from Hong Kong and Macau [because their voices carry weight].
Professor Zheng called for the creation of a commission for exchange of information
among experts from the three areas so that experts' views had a better chance of being
heard by policymakers.
An advisory commission of 118 experts set up recently by the Guangdong government
could be expanded to include Hong Kong and Macau experts, he said.
The Pearl River Delta may have reached a stage where it has to pay serious heed to the
voices of experts because boom cities such as Shenzhen and Dongguan have run out of
land and ideas to sustain their prosperity.
Meanwhile, labour costs have risen but discussions on merging Shenzhen with Dongguan
and Huizhou to strengthen their competitive edge have fallen flat.
Merger experience elsewhere has not given them cause to embrace the idea with
enthusiasm.
Leaders of Nanhai and Shunde still rue the day their cities were forced to merge with
Foshan and claim that their economic growth shrank as a result of the merger.
Despite the poor co-ordination record, Professor Zheng believed that delta officials were
now more mature and more inclined to take a regional view on things.
Professor Zhou remained optimistic about the Pearl River Delta.
He said its track record kept foreign investors interested while more information about
the delta was filtering out.
"I predict that the Pearl River Delta can still sustain a growth rate of 10 to 12 per cent,"
he said.
10
Associate,
Dibb
Lupton
process" criterion will be adopted as the CEPA origin rules. For the rest, either the
"change in tariff heading" approach or the "30% value-added" requirement will be used.
The 30% value-added rule compares favourably with other free trade areas' thresholds,
which range from 40% to 60%.
Apart from zero tariffs enjoyed by products made in Hong Kong, products made by Hong
Kong and/or traded by Hong Kong will also benefit from CEPA in other ways. Upon
China's WTO accession, many Hong Kong manufacturers with production on the
Mainland would like to develop China as their domestic market. However, their market
penetration efforts have been somewhat hindered by the underdeveloped distribution
system on the Mainland. Many hazards in developing the China market such as payment
problems and intellectual property rights protection now facing Hong Kong
manufacturers can hopefully be alleviated as more Hong Kong players will be allowed to
engage in distribution business on the Mainland under CEPA.
The immediate benefit of the trade in goods is the saving in tariffs, thus increasing the
price competitiveness of Hong Kong's domestic exports of consumer products into the
Mainland. Industries that are more likely to be benefited include fashion, jewellery and
high-end watches.
A longer-term effect of the zero-tariff agreement is the potential for attracting more high
value-added manufacturing activities to be located in Hong Kong, and promoting
development of brand products made in Hong Kong to emerging middle-class consumers
on the Mainland.
Capitalising on the advantage of Hong Kong in intellectual property rights protection,
free trade and investment environment, and reputation in cosmopolitan design, Hong
Kong is in a good position to develop high intellectual property (IP) value industries that
target the Mainland market.
For high-end products such as designers' clothing and fashion accessories, and industries
that involve proprietary technology (since the IP input accounts for a much larger share
than labour and other inputs in the total cost structure), production in Hong Kong may
still be justifiable. However, since the high IP value industries are knowledge-based and
would not be massive in scale, the effect of job creation in Hong Kong, especially for
unskilled workers, would only be moderate.
Hong Kong as a Financial Centre and Its Special Relations with the Pearl River
Delta
CEPA will strengthen Hong Kong's role as an international financial centre for China and
the region. Under CEPA, the Mainland supports Chinese banks in re-locating their
international treasury and foreign exchange trading centres to Hong Kong. They are also
encouraged to expand their banking business in Hong Kong through acquisition. In the
process of financial reform on the Mainland, the financial intermediaries in Hong Kong
will be fully utilised.
Given the proximity of Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta (PRD), CEPA has a special
meaning to the closer co-operation of the two places. With CEPA, the PRD will continue
to grow from strength to strength as the world's manufacturing centre, fully supported by
the business services provided by Hong Kong companies. Waiving Hong Kong lawyers'
residency requirements for operating in the PRD is just an example of the special
convenience provided by CEPA to enhance the partnership of the Greater PRD.
be created across the boundary. The overall effect on total employment could be
significant.
Immediate trade and employment creation is, of course, important to Hong Kong, but the
long term effect of CEPA is much more substantial. Indeed, the pace of Hong Kong's
economic restructuring will accelerate under CEPA. While the impact will evolve over
time, it is likely to be reflected more in Hong Kong's GNP than in its GDP. The
opportunities arising from CEPA are not limited to activities within the HKSAR but go
much farther into the Mainland
Latest Developments of the Greater Pearl River Delta
This chapter is divided into 6 parts. Part I, II and III will give the
general economic overview of Guangdong as well as the Greater
Pearl River Delta region. Key development goals for Guangdong
and latest updates of the cooperation zones between Hong
Kong and Guangdong will be covered in Part IV and Part V. Part
VI will introduce the major government initiatives and recent
infrastructure projects in the Greater Pearl River Delta region.
I.
2011
1.044
179 812.7
21
2010
79%
72.4%
23
1.
1. GDP of Guangdong
201045,472.8
15.2%2015
66,800
8%
80,000
66,800.0
RMB 100m
70,000
60,000
45,472.8
50,000
39,482.6
35,696.5
40,000
31,084.4
30,000
22,366.5
20,000
10,000
0
GDP
10,741.3
185.9
1,559.0
1978
1990
5,933.1
1995
2000
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015*
Year
2011
* 2015
2.
1978370
201047,000
14.2%201566,000
7%
80,000
66,000.0
70,000
RMB
60,000
47,000.0
50,000
37,589.0
40,000
33,151.0
30,000
24,438.0
20,000
10,000
0
12,736.0
8,129.0
370.0
1978
2011
* 2015
24
41,166.0
2,484.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015*
Year
3.
197879.9 2010
17,414.7
16.9%201535,000
40,000
35,000.0
RMB 100m
35,000
30,000
25,000
17,414.7
20,000
14,891.8
12,772.2
15,000
7,882.6
10,000
5,000
0
10,598.1
79.9
667.4
1978
1990
2,478.4
4,379.8
1995
2000
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015*
Year
2011
* 2015
4.
20107,849.0
3,317.1
4,531.91,214.8
2010
26.3%29.6%2015
1
9,000
8,000
USD 100m
7,000
6,340.4
7,849.0
6,834.9
6,111.2
6,000
5,000
4,280.0
4,000
Imports
3,000
1,701.1
2,000
1,000
0
1,039.7
Exports
419.0
1990
2011
1995
2000
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
25
II. *
(2009-2010)
2009
Percentage to the
Guangdong province (%)
2010
Basic information
54 733.0
30.4
54 733.0
30.4
5 361.7
52.9
5 616.4
4.8
53.8
4 336.6
67.5
4 646.0
7.1
67.2
3 261.0
57.7
3 377.4
3.6
58.7
32,147.0
79.4
37,673.3
17.2
79.0
Primary Industry
723.6
35.7
809.8
11.9
35.1
Secondary Industry
15,427.5
80.0
18,313.5
18.7
79.3
Tertiary Industry
15,995.9
83.4
18,550.0
16.0
83.2
Production data
Primary Industry
2.3
2.1
-0.2
Secondary Industry
48.0
48.6
0.6
Tertiary Industry
49.8
49.2
-0.6
61,231.0
68,633.3
12.1
9,603.6
71.9
11,355.8
18.2
70.5
10,834.7
72.8
12,613.2
16.4
72.4
3,417.8
95.2
4,318.0
26.3
95.3
2,430.5
96.4
3,195.0
31.5
96.3
175.1
89.6
183.5
4.8
90.5
External Economy
2011
*
26
III.
(2010)
Zhaoqing
Foshan
2011
Guangzhou
Dongguan
Huizhou
Zhongshan
Shenzhen
Jiangmen
Zhuhai
Hong Kong
Macao
city
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
()
27
IV.
2009
20082020
2009
()
()(
)
(20112012)
Key Development Goals of the Pearl River Delta Region in 2011 and 2012
ShenzhenDongguanHuizhou Economic
Circle
GuangzhouFoshanZhaoqing Economic
Circle
ZhuhaiZhongshanJiangmen Economic
Circle
28
City
Year
()
GDP per
capita (RMB)
Service
industry as
a share of GDP (%)
Urbanisation
rate (%)
Shenzhen
2011
2012
113,129
121,048
56
58
100.0
100.0
34,100
36,800
Dongguan
2011
2012
72,000
80,000
47
48
87.2
87.5
37,476
39,537
15,238
16,457
Huizhou
2011
2012
44,182
50,000
37
38
62.2
62.5
25,200
27,500
8,682
9,200
Guangzhou
2011
2012
97,900
103,700
63
65
83.0
83.2
32,800
35,800
13,148
14,332
Foshan
2011
2012
92,000
102,000
38
40
93.5
94.4
28,900
31,800
12,480
13,478
Zhaoqing
2011
2012
25,500
30,000
44
45
48.5
50.0
17,733
19,152
7,235
7,799
Zhuhai
2011
2012
81,000
85,200
48.7
51
85.7
86.1
26,900
29,600
9,818
10,505
Zhongshan
2011
2012
74,000
80,000
41
43
87.5
88.0
25,810
27,230
14,034
15,000
Jiangmen
2011
2012
37,700
40,500
38
40
50.6
50.9
22,474
24,609
8,786
9,488
() ()
Urban household
Rural net income per
disposable income
capita (RMB)
per capita (RMB)
V.
Cooperation zones
between Hong Kong
and Guangdong
Area
Major industries
Development goals
Qianhai,
Shenzhen
15
15 sq.km
Focusing on the
development of modern
service industries such
as finance, logistics and
information technology
2020
Nansha,
Guangzhou
803
570
803 sq.km
with land area
of 570 sq.km
29
VI.
1.
2011316
CEPA
30
2.
20112015
8%7%
Indicators
()
GDP
(RMB 100 million)
()
GDP per capita
(RMB)
Contribution of
service industry to
GDP
Urbanisation rate
()
Urban household
disposable income
per capita (RMB)
()
Rural net income
per capita (RMB)
2010
45,473
47,000
44.6%
64%
23,898
7,890
2015
66,800
66,000
48%
68%
35,100
11,600
Annual growth
rate (%)
8
8 or above
7
7 or above
31
3.
(2008-2020)
2009
20082020(
)
2012
80,000
53%
2020GDP
135,000
60%
CEPA
32
The Outline put forward a target for the GDP per capita of the
Pearl River Delta to reach RMB 80,000 and its services industries
to account for 53% of the regional GDP by 2012. And by 2020,
the GDP per capita of the Pearl River Delta was targeted to reach
RMB 135,000 and its services industries to account for 60% of
the regional GDP.
The Outline also mentioned the direction for the Pearl River
Delta to forge closer cooperation with Hong Kong and Macao.
Relevant measures included major infrastructure projects that
aimed to achieve connection among the rail transport and
information networks of the three places; support for Hong Kong
and Macao processing trade enterprises operating in the Pearl
River Delta to extend their industrial chain by transforming and
upgrading themselves into enterprises of modern services and
advanced manufacturing industries; support for labour-intensive
enterprises to achieve smooth transition in their restructuring
and for Hong Kong enterprises to access the Mainland domestic
market; more in-depth measures for CEPA implementation and
preparation for implementing the early and pilot implementation
arrangements for Hong Kong and Macao; and co-building a
quality living area, encouraging the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong
and Macao to work together in the areas of education, healthcare,
social security, emergency management and intellectual property
protection with a view to providing convenience to people of Hong
Kong and Macao working and living in the Mainland.
20122020
Development Goals of the Pearl River Delta Region by 2012 and 2020
Development goals
2012
By 2012
80,000
GDP per capita to reach RMB 80,000
53%
Service industries to account for 53% of the GDP
80%
Urbanisation level to exceed 80%
2020
By 2020
The Pearl River Delta to become one of the worlds mega metropolitan regions
2012
The income levels for the urban and rural residents to double compared with the levels of 2012
135,000
GDP per capita to reach RMB 135,000
60%
Service industries to account for 60% of the GDP
85%
Urbanisation level to exceed 85%
(2008-2020)
Source: The Outline of the Plan for the Reform and Development of the Pearl River Delta
(2008-2020)
33
4.
2010
Shenzhen-DongguanHuizhou
Economic Circle
ZhuhaiZhongshanJiangmen
Economic
Circle
34
5.
20107
201011
6.
20126
35
7.
()
()(CEPA 9)2012
629CEPA 943
22
37
7. CEPA 9
Supplement IX to the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic
Partnership Arrangement (CEPA 9) was signed on 29 June 2012.
CEPA 9 provides for a total of 43 services liberalisation and trade
and investment facilitation measures, including 37 liberalisation
measures in 22 service sectors. It also strengthens cooperation in
areas of finance and trade and investment facilitation, and further
promotes the mutual recognition of professional qualifications of
the two places. Deepening implementation of CEPA will further
promote the development of service and other industries in the
two places.
CEPA
Infrastructure Constructions
1.
200910
2009
2016
36
2011
2016
2. ()
()
140
100
48()2010
2015
2. The Hong Kong Section of the GuangzhouShenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link
The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (XRL)
is an express rail link connecting Hong Kong, Shenzhen and
Guangzhou. The XRL will span about 140 kilometres with the
Hong Kong terminus at West Kowloon. With the XRL, the journey
time between Hong Kong and Guangzhou will be reduced from
about 100 minutes as at present to 48 minutes. The construction
of the Hong Kong section of the XRL was commenced in January
2010 for completion in 2015. Upon completion, XRL will provide
direct access to the Shibi terminus in Guangzhou via Futian,
Longhua and Humen, materialising a one-hour living circle
covering Hong Kong and major Pearl River Delta cities.
37
3.
201212
2 298
3.8
132015
38
4.
200912
2020
-
-
-
----
--
39
Overall, the Chinese economy will prosper and grow due to the new opportunities
and technology that WTO membership will bring. The USITC (United States
International Trade Commission) estimates that as a result of joining the WTO
under the terms offered by Premier Zhu in April of 1999, Chinas GDP would
increase by 4.1% and Welfare (Consumption) would increase by 2.1%. Incomes in
China will also increase (due to growth effects and technology), offsetting some of
the hardships that will inevitably be encountered as SOEs are shut down or made
more competitiveit is estimated that GDP growth from accession will add 2.5-5.0
million jobs per year.
In addition, Chinas trade and interaction with the rest of the world will increase:
exports are expected to increase by 12.2%, and imports by 14.3%. Total trade is
projected to increase from $324 billion (1998) to $600 billion (2005). As of 1996, it
is estimated that trade is responsible for approximately 36% of GDP. In particular,
China will find itself in a better position to exercise its comparative advantage in
labor, attracting low-skilled labor intensive manufacturing jobs away from other
Asian countries, as well as medium-skilled value added jobs (such as assembling),
particularly in the technology sector.
Many of the SOEs that have been enjoying subsidies and protections from the state
are finding themselves forced into a position where they will either become
efficient or go bankrupt. Chinas accession to the WTO will only hasten this
process. The central government will end the subsidies and support given to most
SOEs, and modernize the banking system that gave the loss-making SOEs easy
access to credit and loans. Although this has serious social consequences for
unemployment and social health (discussed in section 4.2), it will allow the
industries currently dominated by the SOEs to move forward, by allowing DPEs to
come in when the SOEs fail, and by stimulating growth and development through
foreign competition and the use of new technology that FOEs/JVs will bring.
In addition to the advantages of increased efficiencies and growth, China will also
gain access to foreign markets for its exports, as well as Normal Trade Relations
with the United States. This is particularly important for China in the area of
clothes/footwear and FDI.
Giving China permanent NTR status will assist it in securing the additional FDI it
needs to continue its growth. Without permanent NTR status, U.S. companies will
be less likely to make large investments into China due to the inherent
unpredictability of the yearly NTR waiver process, and the possibility of disruption
should there ever be a non-renewal. FDI is projected to increase from $45 billion
(1998) to $100 billion (2005) and will provide 18 million additional jobs.
In the area of textiles, apparel, and footwear (all labor-intensive products), China
enjoys significant comparative advantage and accounts for over 12% of world
exports in textiles and apparel. Any liberalization of the U.S. textile markets that
10
WTO membership might bring will have an immediate and profound impact on
China.
Access to advanced technology is also likely to increase with WTO membership, as
the U.S. is more likely to ease its restrictions on advanced technology export
controls to China, and China will gain more contacts with additional suppliers of
advanced technology. When the U.S. government sees that China is able to acquire
high technology from other nations (in spite of Washingtons disapproval), allowing
U.S. domiciled companies access to the Chinese market will become a political
reality.
Finally, by joining the WTO China is able to increase its international presence and
stature. By joining the bargaining table, China will also be able to have a voice in
future negotiations, and policymaking. China will also be in a better position to
defend its own policies, be less likely to suffer trade and other economic sanctions
for its policies, and have access to remedies should it find itself in an intolerable
situation.
4.2
11
protect investors. These changes will be difficult and painful, but are necessary if
China is to compete with foreign insurers and banks within 5 years.
Chinas balance of trade would likely turn negative as a result of WTO membership.
In the years immediately following accession, imports will increase faster than
exports, but this trend is expected to reverse after China makes its initial
technology/equipment acquisitions.
In summary, China stands to gain from WTO membership both politically and
economically in numerous ways, but risks serious political fallout if it cannot
properly manage the transitional unemployment problems it will be faced with.
4.3
4.3.1
Economy Wide
The USITC estimates that as a result of China reducing its tariffs as per the terms of
Zhus April 1999 offer, the U.S. would experience gains in: GDP ($1.7 Billion),
Welfare ($3.3 Billion), Total Exports ($1.9 Billion), and Exports to China ($2.7
Billion). The agricultural sector in particular would experience a surge in exports:
Cotton (67.7%), Vegetable Oils (154.1%), Beverages & Tobacco (127.3%), Wheat
(20.8%), and Other Grain (33.6%). Although the national trade balance would
likely grow in Chinas favor ($586 Million), it is estimated that the overall world
trade balance would grow in the U.S.s favor by some $674 Million, primarily due
to increased exports to other east Asian countries.
4.3.2
12
4.3.3
4.3.4
Investment Liberalization
China has also liberalized its investment policies. Immediately after accession, the
ban on foreign ownership of telecommunications firms will be repealedup to 49%
foreign ownership will be allowed, increasing to 50% within 3 years. This will have
13
a positive effect for the United States telecommunications and technology firms that
hope to compete in China. Restrictions on foreign investment in the Internet have
also been removed, paving the way for more technology and information
investment. Hotel and tour companies will be allowed 100% foreign ownership
within 3 years, giving U.S. hotel chains more control and incentive to invest in
China.
4.3.5
4.3.6
Agriculture
Chinas offer to reduce tariffs and allow private trading in agricultural commodities
is a boon to the United States. Currently, "the prices of many Chinese farm products,
including wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, edible oil and sugar, are 20% to 50%
above world market prices and imports are expected to flood the domestic market
once tariff barriers are lifted." The USITC estimates that wheat and grain exports
could soar once China joins the WTO: Cotton (67.7%), Vegetable Oils (154.1%),
Beverages & Tobacco (127.3%), Wheat (20.8%), and Other Grain (33.6%).
Agricultural exports, lead by oilseeds, will be one of the main contributors to the
U.S. balance of trade.
4.4
14
able to use the WTO membership as a carrot to induce China to make reforms,
policy changes and concessions on almost any subject the U.S. desired. Also, after
China obtains WTO membership, the U.S. will lose its ability to deny China NTR
status (something that the U.S. Congress uses as a stick to pressure China into
compliance with its desires), and is restricted somewhat in its ability to impose
sanctions. After China joins the WTO, the U.S. will no longer be able to use these
economic pressures and threats to compel China to address human rights concerns
that the U.S. may have.
Some U.S. jobs may also shift to China once WTO membership is obtained.
Chinas comparative advantage in labor extends to not only the low-skilled and
semi-skilled workers, but also includes a technical, highly skilled and professional
workforce that can threaten U.S. jobs. Already U.S. automotive manufacturers
actively recruit and train engineers to design for the Chinese market; Boeing
assembles pieces of its 737 aircraft in China, and with the acquisition of
McDonnell-Douglas, it now owns a complete jet aircraft production facility. Once
tariffs have been reduced, and/or bounded, the stability that U.S. corporations need
to outsource their production facilities will have arrived, and we should expect more
U.S.China job shifts.
4.5
15
16
17
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Presse-Agentur. 17 September, 1999.
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http://www.nytimes.com
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http://biz.yahoo.com
"Interview-WTO Chief Sees Great Day When China In." Reuters 7 September,
1999. http://biz.yahoo.com
18
"Despite Strain, Taiwan Voices Support for China WTO Entry." Reuters 7
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http://dailynews.yahoo.com
"World Trade Conflicts Intensify" World Socialist Website 18 August, 1999.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/aug1999/wto-a18.shtml
"Chinas WTO Hopes on Table." The Australian 4 March, 1999.
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