Games Foxes Play

Planning for extraordinary times

Chantell Ilbury
Clem Sunter
Chart 1: The Shooting Range
Ready Aim Fire!

Right time to Develop Determine

have the the the tactics
conversations strategy

Strategic Operational
Plans Plans

Resonates with the Business Maturity Model …

 Chart 2: The Cone of Uncertainty 1
Time

Degree
Of
Present uncertainty

Tactics Strategies
Resonates with the 3 lenses …
 Chart 3: The Prototype Matrix
Control

3. Options
4. Decisions

Uncertainty Certainty
2.
a. Key uncertainties
1. Rules of the game
b. Scenarios

Absence of Control

Resonates with the PMOE …

Chart 4: Likes and Dislikes


Circles
Foxes
Games

×
Rimless Wagon Wheels
Hedgehogs
Dots

Hedgehogs are deep specialists – Foxes are wiley, resourceful & fleet footed…
Chart 5: Rimless Wagon Wheels
Business
Unit Head
Business Business
Unit Head Unit Head

Business Central Business

Unit Head Unit Head
Cabal

Business Business
Unit Head Unit Head
Business
Unit Head

Resonates with don’t box people and do encourage decision making …

Chart 6: Conversation Circles

Field of Alignment

Resonates with our strategic approach…

Chart 7: The Conversation Model

7. 8.
Options Decisions
Playing
9.
6. The game
Measurable
SWOT
Outcomes
10.
Meaning of
5.
Winning 1.
Scenarios Scope
Defining
4. the game
Key 2.
3.
Uncertain- Players
Rules of
ties
the game
 Chart 8: Strategy to Action
3.
1. 2.
Rules of
Scope Players
the game
I I
PAs 4. PAs
Key 5. 6.
Uncertain- Scenarios SWOT
ties

7. 8.
Options Decisions
IPAs = issues for
Potential action ACTION
9.
Measurable
Outcomes

10. Meaning of Winning

Chart 14: The picture frame
Product Range

Product Chain

Market Segment

Geographical Footprint
Chart 15: The Seven Frames

GLOBAL

NATIONAL

INDUSTRY
COMPANY
Business
Units
Departments
Individuals
Chart 16: The Looking Glass

Culture
Core Competencies
Organisational Structure
Business Model
Resources
Location

The kind of introspective questions

you should be asking …
Chart 18: The Players Circle

Neutral

For Against
 Chart 20:The DNA Triangle

Aspirational

Descriptive Normative

The shifting equilibrium of the rules of the game – resonates with triangles…
Chart 21: The DNA Chain
A
Consumer N
D

Retailer

Wholesaler

Producer

Raw materials supplier

 Chart 22: The DNA Network
A

Network
Supply
Chain

D N
The game is complex, not one dimentional or linear…
 Chart 24: The flower of uncertainty
International
National
Local
Society

Te
ch
s
litic

no
lo
Po

Ec gy
En

o
vir

no
on

m
m

y
en
t

Law
 Chart 25: The PI chart 1
Predictability

High

Known unknowns

Impact
Low High

Low Unknown unknowns

Resonates with the momentum line…

 Chart 26: The PI chart 2
Predictability

High Rules of the game

Key uncertainties

Wild cards
Impact
Low High

Low Unknown unknowns

Resonates with the momentum line…

 Chart 27: The PI chart 3
Predictability

High Rules of the game

1
5
4 Key uncertainties
6
8 9
7 2

3 10

Impact
Low High
Low

Resonates with the momentum line…

 Chart 28: The HIV PI chart
2004
2004
Predictability Western
Sub-Saharan
Countries
Africa
High Rules of the game

1995
Key uncertainties

1985
Wild cards
Impact
Low 1980 High
Low
Unknown unknowns
 Chart 30: The Scenario Gameboard 1
Positive +

Scenario 4
Scenario 1
(Draw)
(Win)

Negative - Positive +
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
(Lose)
(Draw)

Negative -
 Chart 30: The Scenario Gameboard 2
+ - + +

Intermediate Intermediate
Best-case Best-case
Scenario Scenario
Scenario Scenario

- + - +
Worst- case Worst- case
Intermediate Intermediate
Scenario Scenario
Scenario Scenario

- - + -
 Chart 32: The Scenario Gameboard 3
Positive +

Intermediate
Best-case
Scenario
scenario

Negative - Positive +
Worst-case
Intermediate
scenario
Scenario

Negative -
 Chart 33: The Mulitnational Gameboard
Stable World

Hard Times Frictionless

Capitalism

Weak Strong
Market Market
The Perfect
Fragmented
Storm
World

Unstable World
 Chart 34: The Country Gameboard
Stability +

Europe Australia
USA
South Japan
Africa

Russia
Competitive China Competi
Ness - tiveness
Argentina
Asian +
Middle Tigers
East
Third world
dictatorships

Stability -
 Chart 35 The Business Gameboard 1
Efficiency
+
Grindstone
Gold Medal

Market - Market +

Fubar
Fools Paradise

Efficiency -
 Chart 36 The Business Gameboard 2
Efficiency
+
Grindstone
Gold Medal
A
B
Market - Market +
A
Fubar
Fools Paradise
B

Efficiency -
 Chart 41: The SWOT List
Scenario Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

4
Chart 43: The Ethical Compass
N legal
Moral

W E

Illegal Immoral
S
Chart 44: The Option Dartboard 1
High

2
Resource Exclusive
Input 1

Inclusive
4
3

High
Low
Output
Chart 45: The Option Dartboard 2
High

Low Leverage
2
Resource
Input 1

4
3
High Leverage

High
Low
Output
 Chart 46: The SHE Curve
100% Safe

0% Safe

Low High Low

Leverage Leverage Leverage

Expenditure $
SHE = safety, health, environment
 Chart 47: The R&R graph
• The magnitude of
the bet is the %
wealth on wager
• The risk is the
chance of
unintended failure
due to market,
Large Bets cost, technical or
Return Medium Bets Small Bets
political factors or a
combination
thereof.
• The return is the
return on capital
employed or the
IRR discounting all
future cash flows.

Risk
 Chart 49: The Decision Tree

UO 0O

IO
IO = intended outcome
UO = unintended outcome
0O = zero outcome
Chart 52: The Incremental Staircase 1

Long-Term Goal
Ideal Staircase

Outcome

TIme
Chart 53: The Incremental Staircase 2

Ideal Staircase
Long-Term Goal

Outcome

Actual Staircase

TIme

Resonates with our experience & business growth model…

Chart 55: The Kaleidoscope of Winning
Strongest
Brand
Best
Employer Most
Admired
Company

Highest
Investment Safest
Return Operation

Leading
Innovator
Green
Operation

Supplier of
Choice
Chart 7: The Conversation Model – Full House

D
UO 0O
IO

Playing
The game

Intermediate + Best-case
Scenario
scenario

Worst-case
- Intermediate +
scenario
Scenario

Defining
the game Neutral
- Society
Te
c
s

hn
litic

o lo
Po

gy

For Against
Ec
En

on
vir
o

om
nm

y
en
t

Law