CBS News Battleground Tracker: Iowa, January 2016

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1247 Registered Voters

January 18-21, 2016
5.2%
1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
No attention so far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%

Iowa
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46%

Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2%
6. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

Iowa
7. What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided
Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%

Convince me they stand with me on the issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Convince me they can be effective in the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Im never completely decided until Election Day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%

Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
9. Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could
consider voting for...?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Yes, could consider

37%
67%
64%
35%
33%
17%
58%
No, could never consider

63%
33%
36%
65%
67%
83%
42%
10. In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Too extreme
47%
19%
7%
About right
47%
70%
54%
Too moderate
5%
11%
39%

Iowa
11. Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Yes, consistent
66%
71%
51%
No, not consistent

34%
29%
49%
12. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Understands
79%
76%
63%
Doesnt understand
21%
24%
37%
13. Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

Win the General election in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Fight terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Bring back jobs and the American economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
14. Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?

Serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Not serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84%
15. Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or
does it not matter to you?
Better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Does not matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%

Iowa
16. Regardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?
Health care policy

Wall Street reform
Terrorism
Taxes
The economy and
jobs
Gun policy
Hillary Clinton
43%
23%
52%
28%
Bernie Sanders
41%
69%
17%
55%
Both equally
16%
7%
31%
17%
38%
50%
41%
23%
21%
27%
17. From what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Realistic
76%
38%
Idealistic
24%
62%
18. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Understands
65%
85%
Doesnt understand
35%
15%
19. As President, would each candidate ultimately do...?

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
What big donors want

57%
9%
What regular people

want
43%
91%

Iowa
20. When you vote in the Iowa caucus, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Support an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Get progressive things done . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Give the Democrats a good chance to win in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
21. Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair
points?
Her critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%

She has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56%
Have not heard criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
22. Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair
points?
His critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

He has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%
Have not heard criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
23. Have you been told the specific location of your caucus meeting yet, or do you still need to
find that out?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Yes, know where it is . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62%

No, still need to find out . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
24. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%

Iowa
25. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
26. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
27. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
28. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

Iowa
29. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
30. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

Iowa
1. Attention to Campaign
How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
47%
39%
11%
2%
59%
31%
10%
1%
37%
46%
13%
4%
28%
46%
26%
0%
37%
41%
11%
11%
49%
40%
11%
0%
62%
34%
4%
0%
48%
39%
11%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,246)
(586)
(659)
(174)
(240)
(532)
(300)
(1,179)
(17)
(9)
(41)

Iowa
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
14%
8%
11%
13%
2%
59%
15%
6%
9%
9%
2%
45%
12%
10%
13%
16%
4%
50%
19%
7%
4%
20%
0%
49%
23%
12%
6%
4%
7%
51%
11%
8%
15%
13%
2%
56%
7%
6%
11%
16%
4%
52%
12%
8%
11%
13%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,247)
(587)
(660)
(174)
(240)
(532)
(300)
(1,181)
(17)
(9)
(41)

Iowa
3. 2016 Primary Turnout

In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
33%
34%
18%
15%
29%
40%
20%
11%
36%
29%
17%
18%
32%
35%
18%
14%
26%
28%
15%
31%
34%
35%
19%
12%
37%
36%
20%
7%
32%
35%
19%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,247)
(587)
(660)
(174)
(240)
(532)
(300)
(1,181)
(17)
(9)
(41)

Iowa
4. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
1%
5%
2%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
13%
1%
39%
0%
1%
4%
0%
34%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
15%
1%
40%
0%
1%
7%
4%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
10%
0%
38%
0%
0%
0%
0%
32%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4%
9%
0%
54%
0%
1%
13%
0%
25%
0%
1%
0%
0%
4%
31%
0%
25%
0%
1%
4%
4%
37%
1%
0%
0%
0%
2%
10%
1%
37%
0%
1%
4%
0%
35%
4%
0%
0%
2%
3%
6%
1%
43%
0%
1%
5%
2%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
13%
1%
39%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(491)
(302)
(189)
(62)
(87)
(211)
(131)
(479)
(0)
(2)
(10)

Iowa
5. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
46%
5%
47%
1%
43%
5%
51%
1%
47%
4%
44%
4%
14%
0%
74%
12%
50%
1%
47%
2%
46%
5%
48%
1%
61%
9%
28%
1%
45%
4%
50%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(193)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(128)
(449)
(23)
(5)
(14)

Iowa
6. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
41%
22%
0%
39%
42%
18%
0%
34%
38%
27%
0%
51%
30%
19%
0%
26%
48%
26%
0%
42%
35%
23%
0%
31%
50%
18%
1%
38%
41%
21%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(302)
(188)
(62)
(87)
(211)
(130)
(478)
(0)
(2)
(10)

Iowa
7. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Gender
Convince me they can really win
Convince me they stand with me on
the issues
Convince me they can be effective in
the job
Im never completely decided until
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
36%
41%
28%
53%
30%
35%
36%
22%
19%
26%
16%
19%
32%
22%
26%
21%
33%
13%
33%
21%
27%
13%
3%
17%
2%
7%
6%
11%
6%
14%
4%
10%
3%
13%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(183)
(124)
100%
(307)
(65)
(122)
(89)
(298)
(30)
(0)
(2)
(7)

Iowa
8. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
32%
5%
65%
30%
5%
62%
33%
6%
59%
37%
4%
81%
15%
4%
58%
36%
6%
64%
30%
6%
62%
32%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(192)
(284)
(63)
(74)
(212)
(127)
(443)
(22)
(5)
(6)

Iowa
9. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
63%
41%
59%
32%
68%
24%
76%
45%
55%
48%
52%
38%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(173)
(111)
100%
(284)
(60)
(125)
(71)
(277)
(28)
(0)
(1)
(7)

Iowa
10. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
33%
74%
26%
54%
46%
87%
13%
64%
36%
55%
45%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(196)
(117)
100%
(313)
(62)
(128)
(81)
(304)
(42)
(0)
(1)
(8)
10

Iowa
11. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
64%
36%
63%
37%
66%
34%
89%
11%
71%
29%
64%
36%
50%
50%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(400)
(239)
(160)
(56)
(51)
(180)
(113)
(389)
(0)
(2)
(9)
11

Iowa
12. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
35%
65%
36%
64%
34%
66%
34%
66%
32%
68%
34%
66%
40%
60%
35%
65%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(452)
(284)
(168)
(62)
(87)
(185)
(119)
(441)
(0)
(2)
(9)
12

Iowa
13. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
33%
67%
31%
69%
36%
64%
40%
60%
38%
62%
29%
71%
33%
67%
33%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(276)
(175)
(61)
(79)
(191)
(119)
(440)
(0)
(2)
(9)
13

Iowa
14. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
17%
83%
21%
79%
10%
90%
10%
90%
15%
85%
18%
82%
20%
80%
17%
83%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(442)
(269)
(173)
(62)
(74)
(193)
(114)
(431)
(0)
(2)
(9)
14

Iowa
15. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
58%
42%
68%
32%
42%
58%
56%
44%
66%
34%
54%
46%
62%
38%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(434)
(268)
(167)
(62)
(67)
(191)
(114)
(423)
(0)
(2)
(9)
15

Iowa
16. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
47%
47%
5%
45%
49%
6%
51%
45%
4%
55%
44%
1%
66%
28%
6%
41%
51%
8%
41%
55%
4%
48%
47%
5%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(484)
(295)
(189)
(62)
(82)
(210)
(130)
(472)
(0)
(2)
(10)
16

Iowa
17. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
19%
70%
11%
17%
76%
7%
21%
62%
17%
9%
82%
9%
21%
76%
3%
21%
70%
9%
18%
63%
19%
19%
71%
10%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(293)
(188)
(62)
(83)
(208)
(129)
(469)
(0)
(2)
(10)
17

Iowa
18. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
54%
39%
6%
51%
43%
7%
60%
33%
0%
41%
59%
0%
71%
28%
5%
56%
39%
15%
48%
37%
7%
55%
38%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(485)
(297)
(188)
(62)
(83)
(210)
(130)
(473)
(0)
(2)
(10)
18

Iowa
19. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
66%
34%
64%
36%
70%
30%
60%
40%
54%
46%
69%
31%
73%
27%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(484)
(295)
(189)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(125)
(472)
(0)
(2)
(10)
19

Iowa
20. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
71%
29%
76%
24%
63%
37%
69%
31%
72%
28%
75%
25%
64%
36%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(294)
(185)
(62)
(87)
(207)
(124)
(468)
(0)
(2)
(10)
20

Iowa
21. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
51%
49%
47%
53%
57%
43%
56%
44%
52%
48%
51%
49%
48%
52%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(294)
(186)
(62)
(87)
(207)
(124)
(468)
(0)
(2)
(10)
21

Iowa
22. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right
now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
79%
21%
80%
20%
76%
24%
75%
25%
63%
37%
82%
18%
86%
14%
79%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(487)
(299)
(188)
(62)
(86)
(210)
(129)
(475)
(0)
(2)
(10)
22

Iowa
23. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
76%
24%
77%
23%
73%
27%
63%
37%
88%
12%
76%
24%
73%
27%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(487)
(299)
(188)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(130)
(475)
(0)
(2)
(10)
23

Iowa
24. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
37%
65%
35%
60%
40%
75%
25%
70%
30%
62%
38%
54%
46%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(299)
(182)
(62)
(87)
(202)
(130)
(469)
(0)
(2)
(10)
24

Iowa
25. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Gender
Defend my faith and religious values
Win the General election in November
Fight terrorism
Shake up politics-as-usual
Bring back jobs and the American
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
18%
29%
15%
16%
16%
29%
10%
21%
20%
30%
21%
8%
38%
16%
15%
2%
21%
38%
7%
16%
13%
26%
16%
18%
13%
35%
17%
20%
17%
30%
14%
16%
22%
23%
21%
29%
18%
26%
16%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(488)
(302)
(186)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(130)
(479)
(0)
(2)
(7)
25

Iowa
26. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
16%
84%
11%
89%
23%
77%
9%
91%
12%
88%
13%
87%
26%
74%
15%
85%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(302)
(188)
(62)
(85)
(213)
(131)
(478)
(0)
(2)
(10)
26

Iowa
27. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
3%
11%
85%
4%
15%
81%
2%
6%
92%
15%
16%
69%
1%
7%
92%
2%
13%
85%
1%
10%
89%
3%
12%
85%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(492)
(302)
(190)
(62)
(87)
(213)
(131)
(480)
(0)
(2)
(10)
27

Iowa
28. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policy

Regardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
43%
41%
16%
39%
49%
12%
46%
36%
19%
16%
73%
11%
48%
42%
10%
35%
42%
23%
67%
21%
12%
42%
41%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(438)
(14)
(5)
(7)
28

Iowa
29. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reform

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
23%
69%
7%
18%
73%
9%
27%
67%
6%
15%
82%
3%
31%
63%
6%
21%
70%
10%
28%
66%
6%
22%
71%
8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(466)
(180)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(203)
(123)
(441)
(14)
(5)
(7)
29

Iowa
30. Democratic Candidate Policies Terrorism

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
17%
31%
53%
14%
32%
51%
18%
31%
25%
31%
44%
63%
10%
27%
45%
17%
38%
72%
12%
16%
52%
17%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(178)
(293)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(438)
(14)
(5)
(14)
30

Iowa
31. Democratic Candidate Policies Taxes

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
28%
55%
17%
28%
57%
15%
27%
53%
20%
8%
90%
2%
43%
46%
11%
21%
58%
21%
40%
36%
24%
26%
56%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(439)
(14)
(5)
(7)
31

Iowa
32. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobs

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
41%
21%
37%
50%
13%
38%
36%
27%
6%
82%
12%
45%
40%
15%
34%
35%
31%
57%
31%
12%
35%
42%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(187)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(210)
(123)
(438)
(23)
(5)
(7)
32

Iowa
33. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policy

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
50%
23%
27%
51%
22%
27%
49%
23%
28%
22%
36%
42%
47%
24%
29%
48%
21%
31%
68%
17%
15%
48%
23%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(438)
(14)
(5)
(7)
33

Iowa
34. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary Clinton

From what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...
Gender
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
76%
24%
74%
26%
78%
22%
71%
29%
79%
21%
70%
30%
89%
11%
75%
25%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(485)
(191)
(294)
(71)
(75)
(213)
(125)
(443)
(23)
(5)
(14)
34

Iowa
35. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie Sanders

Gender
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
62%
49%
51%
32%
68%
50%
50%
40%
60%
36%
64%
36%
64%
40%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(181)
(292)
(71)
(75)
(205)
(121)
(440)
(14)
(5)
(14)
35

Iowa
36. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
65%
35%
59%
41%
69%
31%
35%
65%
64%
36%
68%
32%
80%
20%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(182)
(288)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(122)
(438)
(14)
(5)
(14)
36

Iowa
37. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
85%
15%
94%
6%
79%
21%
86%
14%
92%
8%
88%
12%
74%
26%
86%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(181)
(292)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(125)
(441)
(14)
(5)
(14)
37

Iowa
38. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

As President, would each candidate ultimately do...?
Gender
What regular people want
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
57%
43%
61%
39%
54%
46%
85%
15%
62%
38%
57%
43%
37%
63%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(483)
(189)
(294)
(71)
(73)
(214)
(124)
(441)
(23)
(5)
(14)
38

Iowa
39. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
9%
91%
7%
93%
10%
90%
10%
90%
20%
80%
7%
93%
4%
96%
6%
94%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(178)
(290)
(71)
(73)
(204)
(120)
(436)
(14)
(5)
(14)
39

Iowa
40. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the Iowa caucus, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Gender
Support an historic candidacy
Get progressive things done
Give the Democrats a good chance to
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
7%
12%
27%
13%
13%
29%
3%
11%
26%
23%
1%
47%
9%
11%
42%
3%
18%
14%
3%
7%
28%
7%
12%
25%
54%
46%
60%
29%
37%
64%
62%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(447)
(23)
(5)
(14)
40

Iowa
41. Hillary Clinton Critiques to Sanders

Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair points?
Gender
Her critiques have been unfair
She has made fair points
Have not heard criticism
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
28%
56%
16%
37%
53%
10%
22%
58%
20%
40%
35%
25%
24%
53%
23%
33%
52%
15%
16%
75%
9%
28%
54%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(448)
(23)
(5)
(14)
41

Iowa
42. Bernie Sanders Critiques to Clinton

Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair points?
Gender
His critiques have been unfair
He has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
16%
63%
21%
12%
76%
13%
19%
56%
26%
5%
74%
21%
11%
52%
37%
15%
64%
21%
26%
64%
10%
15%
64%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(448)
(23)
(5)
(14)
42

Iowa
43. Caucus Location

Have you been told the specific location of your caucus meeting yet, or do you still need to find that out?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Gender
Yes, know where it is
No, still need to find out
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
62%
38%
68%
32%
56%
44%
65%
35%
61%
39%
58%
42%
67%
33%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(982)
(495)
(487)
(133)
(163)
(428)
(258)
(929)
(23)
(7)
(24)
43

Iowa Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
492 Likely Republican Caucus Voters

January 18-21, 2016
7.2%
Ideology
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
72%
25%
3%
0%
84%
13%
4%
0%
73%
26%
1%
0%
81%
16%
3%
0%
63%
34%
3%
0%
72%
24%
3%
0%
77%
22%
1%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(202)
100%
(491)
(251)
(233)
(255)
(197)
(40)
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
72%
25%
3%
0%
84%
16%
0%
0%
54%
39%
7%
0%
67%
25%
8%
0%
63%
35%
2%
0%
74%
22%
3%
0%
78%
22%
0%
1%
73%
24%
3%
0%
79%
20%
1%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(491)
(302)
(189)
(62)
(87)
(212)
(131)
(380)
(94)

2. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
1%
5%
2%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
13%
1%
39%
0%
0%
2%
0%
51%
1%
0%
0%
0%
5%
6%
1%
33%
0%
1%
6%
4%
28%
2%
0%
1%
0%
2%
15%
1%
40%
0%
1%
4%
0%
38%
2%
0%
0%
0%
5%
8%
1%
40%
0%
1%
6%
4%
29%
1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
16%
1%
38%
0%
1%
8%
3%
38%
1%
0%
0%
0%
4%
14%
0%
30%
0%
1%
2%
0%
30%
3%
0%
0%
1%
2%
12%
1%
47%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(202)
100%
(491)
(251)
(232)
(254)
(197)
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Tea Party
(41)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
1%
5%
2%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
13%
1%
39%
0%
1%
4%
0%
34%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
15%
1%
40%
0%
1%
7%
4%
34%
1%
0%
0%
1%
3%
10%
0%
38%
0%
0%
0%
0%
32%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4%
9%
0%
54%
0%
1%
13%
0%
25%
0%
1%
0%
0%
4%
31%
0%
25%
0%
1%
4%
4%
37%
1%
0%
0%
0%
2%
10%
1%
37%
0%
1%
4%
0%
35%
4%
0%
0%
2%
3%
6%
1%
43%
0%
1%
5%
1%
35%
2%
0%
0%
1%
2%
15%
0%
37%
0%
0%
7%
0%
32%
0%
0%
0%
1%
6%
3%
2%
47%
0%
continued on the next page . . .

continued from previous page

Age group
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(491)
(302)
(189)
(62)
(87)
(211)
(131)
(380)
(93)

3. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
41%
22%
0%
45%
38%
17%
0%
30%
45%
24%
0%
39%
46%
15%
0%
35%
36%
28%
0%
38%
39%
23%
0%
35%
43%
21%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(202)
100%
(490)
(251)
(231)
(253)
(197)
(41)
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
37%
41%
22%
0%
39%
42%
18%
0%
34%
38%
27%
0%
51%
30%
19%
0%
26%
48%
26%
0%
42%
35%
23%
0%
31%
50%
18%
1%
38%
41%
21%
0%
35%
44%
20%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(302)
(188)
(62)
(87)
(211)
(130)
(379)
(93)

4. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Ideology
the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
36%
32%
34%
39%
32%
32%
42%
22%
29%
16%
20%
24%
21%
18%
26%
22%
33%
24%
28%
26%
27%
13%
3%
12%
5%
17%
1%
12%
5%
14%
2%
18%
2%
6%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(92)
(141)
100%
(307)
(154)
(150)
(156)
(128)
(20)
Gender
the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
36%
41%
28%
53%
30%
35%
43%
15%
22%
19%
26%
16%
19%
32%
19%
35%
26%
21%
33%
13%
33%
21%
23%
31%
13%
3%
17%
2%
7%
6%
11%
6%
14%
4%
10%
3%
13%
3%
14%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(183)
(124)
100%
(307)
(65)
(122)
(89)
(233)
(60)
(30)

5. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
63%
38%
62%
41%
59%
44%
56%
29%
71%
37%
63%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(103)
(116)
100%
(284)
(146)
(131)
(166)
(100)
(15)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
37%
63%
41%
59%
32%
68%
24%
76%
45%
55%
48%
52%
36%
64%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(173)
(111)
100%
(284)
(60)
(125)
(71)
(230)
(28)
(44)

6. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
33%
82%
18%
65%
35%
82%
18%
53%
47%
80%
20%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(82)
(138)
100%
(313)
(149)
(158)
(153)
(130)
(34)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
67%
33%
74%
26%
54%
46%
87%
13%
64%
36%
55%
45%
64%
36%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(196)
(117)
100%
(313)
(62)
(128)
(81)
(237)
(61)
(42)

7. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
64%
36%
60%
40%
73%
27%
61%
39%
69%
31%
67%
33%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(150)
(159)
100%
(400)
(221)
(174)
(200)
(164)
(33)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
64%
36%
63%
37%
66%
34%
89%
11%
71%
29%
64%
36%
50%
50%
69%
31%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(400)
(239)
(160)
(56)
(51)
(180)
(113)
(299)
(85)

8. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
35%
65%
30%
70%
40%
60%
26%
74%
45%
55%
31%
69%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(162)
(177)
100%
(452)
(240)
(204)
(224)
(188)
(36)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
35%
65%
36%
64%
34%
66%
34%
66%
32%
68%
34%
66%
40%
60%
40%
60%
19%
81%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(452)
(284)
(168)
(62)
(87)
(185)
(119)
(355)
(85)

9. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
33%
67%
26%
74%
36%
64%
24%
76%
42%
58%
42%
58%
24%
76%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(163)
(176)
100%
(450)
(237)
(206)
(229)
(182)
(35)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
33%
67%
31%
69%
36%
64%
40%
60%
38%
62%
29%
71%
33%
67%
38%
62%
9%
91%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(276)
(175)
(61)
(79)
(191)
(119)
(347)
(86)
10

10. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
17%
83%
15%
85%
18%
82%
13%
87%
20%
80%
17%
83%
16%
84%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(156)
(177)
100%
(442)
(236)
(200)
(221)
(183)
(35)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
17%
83%
21%
79%
10%
90%
10%
90%
15%
85%
18%
82%
20%
80%
18%
82%
13%
87%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(442)
(269)
(173)
(62)
(74)
(193)
(114)
(341)
(84)
11

11. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
58%
42%
79%
21%
47%
53%
73%
27%
41%
59%
65%
35%
53%
47%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(156)
(174)
100%
(434)
(233)
(194)
(215)
(181)
(33)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
58%
42%
68%
32%
42%
58%
56%
44%
66%
34%
54%
46%
62%
38%
55%
45%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(434)
(268)
(167)
(62)
(67)
(191)
(114)
(335)
(83)
12

12. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
47%
47%
5%
47%
44%
10%
47%
49%
5%
39%
53%
8%
55%
42%
3%
49%
46%
5%
47%
47%
6%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(165)
(198)
100%
(484)
(244)
(232)
(252)
(193)
(41)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
47%
47%
5%
45%
49%
6%
51%
45%
4%
55%
44%
1%
66%
28%
6%
41%
51%
8%
41%
55%
4%
52%
44%
5%
25%
66%
9%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(484)
(295)
(189)
(62)
(82)
(210)
(130)
(376)
(90)
13

13. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
19%
70%
11%
9%
84%
7%
22%
68%
10%
10%
80%
10%
26%
63%
12%
14%
79%
7%
24%
64%
12%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(163)
(197)
100%
(481)
(242)
(232)
(249)
(193)
(40)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
19%
70%
11%
17%
76%
7%
21%
62%
17%
9%
82%
9%
21%
76%
3%
21%
70%
9%
18%
63%
19%
18%
71%
11%
16%
74%
10%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(481)
(293)
(188)
(62)
(83)
(208)
(129)
(374)
(89)
14

14. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
54%
39%
9%
43%
49%
5%
61%
34%
5%
44%
51%
8%
65%
27%
8%
54%
39%
4%
61%
36%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(198)
100%
(485)
(245)
(232)
(252)
(193)
(40)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
54%
39%
6%
51%
43%
7%
60%
33%
0%
41%
59%
0%
71%
28%
5%
56%
39%
15%
48%
37%
5%
57%
38%
10%
44%
46%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(485)
(297)
(188)
(62)
(83)
(210)
(130)
(377)
(90)
15

15. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
66%
34%
62%
38%
66%
34%
71%
29%
62%
38%
62%
38%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(167)
(200)
100%
(484)
(247)
(229)
(251)
(192)
(39)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
66%
34%
64%
36%
70%
30%
60%
40%
54%
46%
69%
31%
73%
27%
64%
36%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(484)
(295)
(189)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(125)
(375)
(92)
16

16. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
71%
29%
85%
15%
66%
34%
76%
24%
65%
35%
74%
26%
69%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(166)
(199)
100%
(479)
(246)
(226)
(248)
(191)
(38)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
71%
29%
76%
24%
63%
37%
69%
31%
72%
28%
75%
25%
64%
36%
72%
28%
72%
28%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(479)
(294)
(185)
(62)
(87)
(207)
(124)
(372)
(91)
17

17. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
51%
49%
40%
60%
61%
39%
41%
59%
62%
38%
45%
55%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(167)
(199)
100%
(480)
(245)
(227)
(249)
(191)
(38)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
51%
49%
47%
53%
57%
43%
56%
44%
52%
48%
51%
49%
48%
52%
57%
43%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(294)
(186)
(62)
(87)
(207)
(124)
(373)
(91)
18

18. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
79%
21%
75%
25%
84%
16%
84%
16%
74%
26%
78%
22%
80%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(165)
(201)
100%
(487)
(247)
(232)
(251)
(196)
(41)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
79%
21%
80%
20%
76%
24%
75%
25%
63%
37%
82%
18%
86%
14%
80%
20%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(487)
(299)
(188)
(62)
(86)
(210)
(129)
(376)
(93)
19

19. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
76%
24%
81%
19%
75%
25%
81%
19%
71%
29%
80%
20%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(165)
(202)
100%
(487)
(248)
(231)
(250)
(197)
(40)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
76%
24%
77%
23%
73%
27%
63%
37%
88%
12%
76%
24%
73%
27%
76%
24%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(487)
(299)
(188)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(130)
(375)
(94)
20

20. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
63%
37%
61%
39%
67%
33%
62%
38%
64%
36%
63%
37%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(165)
(196)
100%
(480)
(247)
(225)
(244)
(197)
(40)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
63%
37%
65%
35%
60%
40%
75%
25%
70%
30%
62%
38%
54%
46%
69%
31%
47%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(480)
(299)
(182)
(62)
(87)
(202)
(130)
(369)
(93)
21

21. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Ideology
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
18%
29%
15%
16%
25%
24%
11%
26%
15%
34%
15%
11%
15%
28%
12%
21%
21%
30%
17%
11%
27%
24%
11%
18%
7%
36%
20%
12%
22%
15%
25%
23%
22%
20%
25%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(166)
(202)
100%
(488)
(247)
(232)
(252)
(196)
(40)
Gender
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
18%
29%
15%
16%
16%
29%
10%
21%
20%
30%
21%
8%
38%
16%
15%
2%
21%
38%
7%
16%
13%
26%
16%
18%
13%
35%
17%
20%
18%
34%
13%
11%
20%
14%
13%
36%
22%
23%
21%
29%
18%
26%
16%
24%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(488)
(302)
(186)
(62)
(87)
(209)
(130)
(379)
(92)
22

22. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Ideology
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
16%
84%
7%
93%
16%
84%
11%
89%
20%
80%
11%
89%
18%
82%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(200)
100%
(490)
(251)
(231)
(255)
(195)
(41)
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
16%
84%
11%
89%
23%
77%
9%
91%
12%
88%
13%
87%
26%
74%
17%
83%
11%
89%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(302)
(188)
(62)
(85)
(213)
(131)
(378)
(94)
23

23. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Ideology
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
3%
11%
85%
6%
20%
74%
2%
9%
89%
5%
15%
80%
2%
7%
91%
5%
13%
82%
1%
10%
89%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(202)
100%
(492)
(251)
(233)
(255)
(197)
(41)
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
3%
11%
85%
4%
15%
81%
2%
6%
92%
15%
16%
69%
1%
7%
92%
2%
13%
85%
1%
10%
89%
4%
10%
85%
0%
17%
83%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(492)
(302)
(190)
(62)
(87)
(213)
(131)
(380)
(94)
24

24. Caucus Location

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
56%
44%
63%
37%
52%
48%
56%
44%
56%
44%
54%
46%
58%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(168)
(202)
100%
(492)
(251)
(233)
(255)
(197)
(41)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
56%
44%
61%
39%
49%
51%
62%
38%
52%
48%
56%
44%
56%
44%
58%
42%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(492)
(302)
(190)
(62)
(87)
(213)
(131)
(380)
(94)
25

Iowa Likely Democratic Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
490 Likely Democratic Caucus Voters

January 18-21, 2016
8.9%
Ideology
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
64%
33%
3%
0%
79%
21%
0%
0%
67%
33%
0%
0%
64%
34%
1%
0%
73%
27%
1%
0%
58%
36%
6%
0%
46%
44%
11%
0%
53%
35%
12%
0%
68%
31%
1%
0%
73%
27%
1%
0%
63%
32%
5%
0%
70%
30%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(84)
(154)
(143)
(193)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(128)
(387)
(72)

2. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
46%
5%
47%
2%
33%
1%
64%
1%
47%
5%
47%
1%
55%
6%
36%
2%
43%
5%
51%
1%
47%
4%
44%
4%
14%
0%
74%
12%
50%
1%
47%
2%
46%
5%
48%
1%
61%
9%
28%
1%
52%
4%
40%
3%
24%
7%
67%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(84)
(154)
(144)
(193)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(128)
(387)
(72)

3. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
63%
32%
5%
81%
15%
4%
67%
27%
6%
58%
34%
8%
65%
30%
5%
62%
33%
6%
59%
37%
4%
81%
15%
4%
58%
36%
6%
64%
30%
6%
67%
28%
5%
35%
58%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(83)
(152)
(140)
(192)
(284)
(63)
(74)
(212)
(127)
(375)
(71)

4. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policy

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
43%
41%
16%
23%
58%
19%
43%
43%
14%
54%
29%
17%
39%
49%
12%
46%
36%
19%
16%
73%
11%
48%
42%
10%
35%
42%
23%
67%
21%
12%
51%
34%
15%
20%
61%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(82)
(147)
(134)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(362)
(72)

5. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reform

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
23%
69%
7%
14%
82%
4%
24%
69%
6%
21%
71%
8%
18%
73%
9%
27%
67%
6%
15%
82%
3%
31%
63%
6%
21%
70%
10%
28%
66%
6%
28%
65%
6%
7%
78%
15%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(466)
(82)
(149)
(134)
(180)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(203)
(123)
(363)
(72)

6. Democratic Candidate Policies Terrorism

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
52%
17%
31%
48%
26%
26%
61%
6%
33%
54%
15%
31%
53%
14%
32%
51%
18%
31%
25%
31%
44%
63%
10%
27%
45%
17%
38%
72%
12%
16%
60%
12%
28%
26%
42%
32%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(82)
(147)
(134)
(178)
(293)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(368)
(72)

7. Democratic Candidate Policies Taxes

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
28%
55%
17%
24%
66%
10%
27%
58%
15%
28%
44%
27%
28%
57%
15%
27%
53%
20%
8%
90%
2%
43%
46%
11%
21%
58%
21%
40%
36%
24%
33%
48%
18%
4%
74%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(82)
(147)
(134)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(362)
(72)

8. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobs

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
38%
41%
21%
26%
57%
17%
35%
36%
28%
47%
37%
16%
37%
50%
13%
38%
36%
27%
6%
82%
12%
45%
40%
15%
34%
35%
31%
57%
31%
12%
46%
33%
21%
10%
66%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(82)
(147)
(142)
(187)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(210)
(123)
(370)
(72)

9. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policy

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
50%
23%
27%
35%
39%
27%
50%
9%
41%
54%
21%
25%
51%
22%
27%
49%
23%
28%
22%
36%
42%
47%
24%
29%
48%
21%
31%
68%
17%
15%
56%
21%
22%
30%
34%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(82)
(147)
(134)
(178)
(286)
(64)
(75)
(201)
(123)
(362)
(72)

10. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
76%
24%
74%
26%
73%
27%
80%
20%
74%
26%
78%
22%
71%
29%
79%
21%
70%
30%
89%
11%
80%
20%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(485)
(81)
(154)
(142)
(191)
(294)
(71)
(75)
(213)
(125)
(382)
(72)
10

11. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
38%
62%
50%
50%
31%
69%
47%
53%
49%
51%
32%
68%
50%
50%
40%
60%
36%
64%
36%
64%
33%
67%
46%
54%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(83)
(150)
(133)
(181)
(292)
(71)
(75)
(205)
(121)
(370)
(72)
11

12. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
65%
35%
49%
51%
71%
29%
72%
28%
59%
41%
69%
31%
35%
65%
64%
36%
68%
32%
80%
20%
72%
28%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(82)
(151)
(134)
(182)
(288)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(122)
(367)
(72)
12

13. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
85%
15%
95%
5%
87%
13%
75%
25%
94%
6%
79%
21%
86%
14%
92%
8%
88%
12%
74%
26%
81%
19%
98%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(473)
(82)
(154)
(134)
(181)
(292)
(71)
(75)
(201)
(125)
(370)
(72)
13

14. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
57%
43%
71%
29%
54%
46%
41%
59%
61%
39%
54%
46%
85%
15%
62%
38%
57%
43%
37%
63%
51%
49%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(483)
(79)
(154)
(142)
(189)
(294)
(71)
(73)
(214)
(124)
(379)
(72)
14

15. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
9%
91%
7%
93%
4%
96%
5%
95%
7%
93%
10%
90%
10%
90%
20%
80%
7%
93%
4%
96%
10%
90%
4%
96%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(80)
(150)
(133)
(178)
(290)
(71)
(73)
(204)
(120)
(365)
(72)
15

16. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the Iowa caucus, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Ideology
Support an historic candidacy
Get progressive things done
Give the Democrats a good chance to
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
7%
12%
27%
11%
7%
50%
11%
15%
23%
4%
14%
17%
13%
13%
29%
3%
11%
26%
23%
1%
47%
9%
11%
42%
3%
18%
14%
3%
7%
28%
4%
10%
29%
6%
19%
22%
54%
33%
51%
65%
46%
60%
29%
37%
64%
62%
57%
54%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(83)
(154)
(144)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(386)
(72)
16

17. Hillary Clinton Critiques to Sanders

Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair points?
Ideology
Her critiques have been unfair
She has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
28%
56%
16%
45%
42%
14%
35%
51%
15%
18%
62%
20%
37%
53%
10%
22%
58%
20%
40%
35%
25%
24%
53%
23%
33%
52%
15%
16%
75%
9%
23%
61%
16%
39%
45%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(84)
(154)
(143)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(386)
(72)
17

18. Bernie Sanders Critiques to Clinton

Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair points?
Ideology
His critiques have been unfair
He has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
16%
63%
21%
6%
75%
19%
12%
72%
15%
24%
59%
17%
12%
76%
13%
19%
56%
26%
5%
74%
21%
11%
52%
37%
15%
64%
21%
26%
64%
10%
19%
59%
22%
8%
74%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(489)
(84)
(154)
(143)
(192)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(127)
(386)
(72)
18

19. Caucus Location

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
68%
32%
80%
20%
73%
27%
70%
30%
79%
21%
61%
39%
67%
33%
72%
28%
61%
39%
78%
22%
65%
35%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(490)
(84)
(154)
(144)
(193)
(297)
(71)
(75)
(215)
(128)
(387)
(72)
19

CBS News Battleground Tracker: Iowa, January 2016

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CBS News Battleground Tracker: Iowa, January 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1247 Registered Voters

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46%

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%

Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%

Yes, could consider

No, could never consider

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

No, not consistent

Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

14. Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Health care policy

19. As President, would each candidate ultimately do...?

What big donors want

What regular people

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Support an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

Her critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%

His critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

Yes, know where it is . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62%

24. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

27. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

28. Are you male or female?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

30. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

3. 2016 Primary Turnout

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

4. First Choice Republican Candidate

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

5. First Choice Democratic Candidate

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

6. Republican Candidate Support

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

7. Republican Candidate Certainty

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

8. Enthusiasm for First Choice

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

9. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

10. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

11. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

12. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

13. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

14. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

15. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

16. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

17. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker