Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

Interviews Conducted:
January 18-21, 2016

Questions 1-7 and 13 are for release after 9:00 A.M. ET Sunday, January 24, 2016.
Questions 8-12 are held for future release.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers January 18-21, 2016 among a
random state sample of 801 likely New Hampshire primary voters. Respondents were screened
to identify likely primary voters. Results for the 401 likely Republican primary voters have a
margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Landline (408) and cellphone (393) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file
of registered New Hampshire voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This
simply means that phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all
regions across the state of New Hampshire. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of
Princeton, NJ.
An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.
A dash (-) represents a value of zero.
Some results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

1.

How likely is it that you will vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary scheduled
for February -- will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary,
probably not vote, or definitely not vote? (IF DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY) Will
you vote in the Democratic or Republican primary?
-----Democrat---------Republican-----

18-21 Jan 16
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
2.

TOTAL
50%

Definitely
44

Probably
6

TOTAL
51

Definitely
45

Probably
6

48%

39

52

46

How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested,
very interested, somewhat interested or not at all interested?
-----Interested---------Not Interested----Some- Not
(Dont
TOTAL Extremely Very TOTAL what at all know)
18-21 Jan 16
Likely Dem primary voters
88%
50
38
11
11
*
*
91%
61
30
9
9
*
Likely GOP primary voters
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
Likely Dem primary voters
88%
49
39
11
9
2
88%
57
31
12
11
1
Likely GOP primary voters

[Q3-7IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1, N=401]

3.
Im going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If
the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would
you support? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would
you choose?] [RANDOMIZE LIST]
18-21 Jan 16
4-7 Jan 16
15-17 Nov 15
N=401
N=414
N=353
Donald Trump
31%
33%
27%
Ted Cruz
14
12
11
Marco Rubio
13
15
13
John Kasich
9
7
7
Jeb Bush
7
9
9
Chris Christie
7
5
6
Rand Paul
5
5
3
Ben Carson
5
4
9
Carly Fiorina
3
3
3
Mike Huckabee
1
*
1
Jim Gilmore
*
*
Rick Santorum
*
1
Lindsey Graham
N/A
N/A
1
George Pataki
N/A
N/A
*
Bobby Jindal
N/A
N/A
(Other)
*
1
(None of the above)
1
2
*
(Dont know)
5
4
7

[SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW IF DONT KNOW IN Q3]

4.
Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else? [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
Certain to support
May change mind
(Dont know)
18-21 Jan 16
58%
36
6
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
56%
43
1
15-17 Nov 15
44%
55
2

[SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW IF DONT KNOW IN Q3]

5.
And which Republican would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if
you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT
ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3]
Second choice Without Trump Without Cruz
First choice
Donald Trump
31%
12%
N/A
36%
Ted Cruz
14
18
24%
N/A
Marco Rubio
13
14
17
16
John Kasich
9
8
11
9
Jeb Bush
7
8
10
8
Chris Christie
7
7
10
7
Rand Paul
5
3
6
5
Ben Carson
5
5
6
5
Carly Fiorina
3
5
4
4
Mike Huckabee
1
1
1
1
Jim Gilmore
*
*
*
*
Rick Santorum
1
(Other)
*
1
*
*
(None of the above)
1
8
5
1
(Dont know)
5
10
6
5
6.

Are there any Republican candidates you would refuse to vote for against the Democrat
in November? [ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. ACCEPT MULTIPLE
RESPONSES. PROBE UNTIL NOT PRODUCTIVE.] Are there any others you
would refuse to support?
18-21 Jan 16
N=401
(Trump)
26%
(Bush)
15
(Cruz)
14
(Rubio)
12
(Christie)
9
(Fiorina)
9
(Carson)
8
(Huckabee)
7
(Kasich)
6
(Paul)
6
(Santorum)
6
(Gilmore)
5
(I would support any of
38
them/None/No one)
(Don't know)
10

7.

Which one of the following candidate qualities will matter most in deciding which
candidate to support for the Republican nomination? That the candidate:
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
18-21 Jan 16
N=401
Is a strong leader
27%
Is willing to tell it like it is
21
Has true conservative values
15
Can win in November
13
Has the right experience
12
(All/Mixed)
9
(None/Other)
2
(Dont know)
1

Questions 8-12 are held for future release.

[RESUME ALL]
13.
Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?
(No
Yes
No
party/independent) (Dont know)
18-21 Jan 16
43%
52
3
2
33%
62
3
2
Likely Dem primary voters
Likely GOP primary voters
53%
43
3
2

Fox News Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
January 18-21, 2016 among a random state sample of 801 likely New Hampshire primary voters.
Results for the 401 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 5
points.
Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:
Republican Primary Voters +/- 5%
Republican:
--Men:
Women:
--College Degree:
No Degree:
--Strong Leader:
--Under 45:
Age 45+:
--Very Conservative:

+/- 5.5%

Evangelical:

+/- 10%

+/- 6%
+/- 7.5%
+/- 6%
+/- 8%
+/- 9.5%
+/- 8.5%
+/- 6%
+/- 8.5%

1. How likely is it that you will vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary scheduled for February-will you
definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote, or definitely not vote?

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
[Not sure]

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
[Not sure]

Total
44%

Dem
84%

Rep
7%

Ind
44%

Men
37%

Women
50%

College
Degree
45%

No
Degree
42%

6%

13%

1%

5%

6%

6%

5%

9%

45%

2%

85%

41%

51%

39%

45%

44%

6%

1%

7%

10%

6%

5%

5%

6%

Total
44%

Under
Age 35
43%

35-54
40%

55+
47%

65+
50%

Under
$50k
50%

$50k+
41%

Lib
77%

Cons
17%

6%

14%

4%

5%

6%

9%

6%

9%

3%

45%

36%

49%

44%

41%

34%

49%

11%

73%

6%

6%

7%

4%

4%

7%

5%

3%

7%

2. How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested, very interested,
somewhat interested or not at all interested?

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
[Don't know]

Total
56%
34%
10%
*%
*%

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
[Don't know]

Total
56%
34%
10%
*%
*%

Dem
51%
39%
10%
-

Rep
62%
29%
9%
*%
-

Under
Age 35
43%
39%
18%
-

Ind
52%
33%
14%
1%
-

35-54
58%
31%
10%
1%
-

Men
55%
32%
13%
*%
-

Women
56%
35%
8%
*%

College
Degree
59%
31%
10%
*%
-

55+
59%
34%
7%
*%

65+
56%
35%
9%
*%

No
Degree
50%
38%
12%
Under
$50k
46%
38%
16%
-

$50k+
59%
32%
9%
*%
-

Lib
53%
37%
10%
-

Cons
59%
32%
9%
*%
-

3. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican
nomination. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would you
support?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
7%
5%
7%
14%
3%
*%
1%
9%
5%
13%
31%
*%
1%
5%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
7%
5%
7%
14%
3%
*%
1%
9%
5%
13%
31%
*%
1%
5%

Rep
8%
6%
8%
13%
4%
*%
1%
9%
3%
13%
32%
*%
4%

Men
5%
4%
6%
15%
4%
1%
12%
6%
12%
30%
*%
1%
4%

Under
Age 45
6%
8%
12%
12%
2%
7%
10%
12%
28%
1%
2%

Women
10%
5%
9%
12%
3%
1%
1%
5%
3%
13%
32%
1%
5%

45+
8%
3%
5%
15%
4%
*%
1%
10%
2%
13%
32%
*%
1%
6%

College
Degree
8%
3%
10%
12%
4%
*%
1%
12%
5%
12%
26%
*%
1%
5%
Very
Cons
3%
7%
1%
27%
5%
1%
1%
1%
5%
12%
34%
2%

No
Degree
5%
8%
3%
16%
2%
1%
4%
5%
13%
38%
1%
4%

Strong
Leader
11%
3%
7%
7%
2%
1%
11%
3%
13%
35%
1%
5%

Evang
5%
16%
4%
15%
2%
1%
1%
5%
5%
16%
25%
1%
4%

4. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind
and support someone else?

Certain
May change
[Don't know]

Total
58%
36%
6%

Certain
May change
[Don't know]

Total
58%
36%
6%

Rep
59%
35%
5%

Men
58%
37%
6%

Under
Age 45
58%
39%
3%

Women
59%
35%
6%

45+
59%
34%
7%

College
Degree
55%
40%
6%
Very
Cons
65%
30%
5%

No
Degree
65%
30%
6%

Evang
60%
32%
8%

Strong
Leader
57%
37%
6%

5. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS]And which Republican would be your second choice?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
8%
5%
7%
18%
5%
*%
1%
8%
3%
14%
1%
12%
1%
8%
10%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
8%
5%
7%
18%
5%
*%
1%
8%
3%
14%
1%
12%
1%
8%
10%

Rep
8%
4%
8%
18%
5%
*%
1%
8%
2%
15%
1%
12%
*%
7%
10%

Men
9%
4%
7%
18%
4%
1%
6%
2%
16%
1%
16%
1%
7%
9%

Under
Age 45
12%
5%
5%
15%
5%
1%
6%
5%
14%
3%
11%
1%
8%
9%

Women
8%
6%
7%
17%
6%
1%
1%
9%
3%
11%
1%
8%
1%
10%
12%

45+
7%
5%
8%
19%
5%
*%
1%
8%
1%
14%
*%
13%
1%
8%
11%

College
Degree
11%
4%
8%
15%
6%
1%
9%
2%
14%
1%
11%
1%
9%
9%
Very
Cons
6%
2%
5%
25%
6%
1%
5%
3%
16%
17%
7%
7%

No
Degree
4%
6%
5%
22%
4%
1%
1%
5%
4%
12%
2%
15%
1%
6%
13%

Strong
Leader
10%
6%
12%
23%
6%
1%
2%
7%
7%
2%
10%
7%
7%

Evang
9%
4%
2%
19%
7%
1%
1%
5%
5%
13%
2%
18%
3%
12%

6. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] Are there any Republican candidates you would refuse to vote for against the
Democrat in November?

[I would support any one

of them/None/No one]
[Trump]
[Carson]
[Cruz]
[Rubio]
[Bush]
[Fiorina]
[Huckabee]
[Christie]
[Kasich]
[Paul]
[Santorum]
[Gilmore]
[Don't know]

[I would support any one

of them/None/No one]
[Trump]
[Carson]
[Cruz]
[Rubio]
[Bush]
[Fiorina]
[Huckabee]
[Christie]
[Kasich]
[Paul]
[Santorum]
[Gilmore]
[Don't know]

Total
38%

Rep
42%

Men
39%

Women
37%

College
Degree
32%

No
Degree
47%

Strong
Leader
32%

26%
8%
14%
12%
15%
9%
7%
9%
6%
6%
6%
5%
10%

23%
6%
10%
8%
11%
7%
5%
8%
6%
6%
5%
3%
11%

23%
9%
14%
13%
15%
8%
6%
9%
4%
4%
6%
4%
11%

29%
6%
13%
10%
14%
10%
8%
9%
9%
7%
7%
6%
9%

30%
8%
16%
13%
15%
9%
7%
9%
6%
6%
6%
4%
10%

19%
7%
10%
10%
15%
9%
7%
10%
6%
6%
7%
6%
10%

27%
11%
14%
16%
18%
9%
10%
9%
10%
6%
9%
6%
10%

Total
38%

Under
Age 45
33%

45+
40%

Very
Cons
48%

Evang
37%

26%
8%
14%
12%
15%
9%
7%
9%
6%
6%
6%
5%
10%

29%
7%
16%
14%
16%
10%
6%
11%
6%
3%
5%
3%
7%

25%
9%
12%
10%
15%
8%
7%
8%
6%
7%
7%
5%
12%

12%
3%
4%
9%
15%
3%
3%
8%
5%
3%
3%
2%
12%

29%
3%
6%
4%
15%
10%
4%
7%
5%
2%
3%
3%
9%

7. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] Which one of the following candidate qualities will matter most in deciding which
candidate to support for the Republican nomination? That the candidate:

Is willing to tell it
like it is
Is a strong leader
Has true conservative
values
Can win in November
Has the right experience
[All/Mixed]
[None/Other]
[Don't know]

Is willing to tell it
like it is
Is a strong leader
Has true conservative
values
Can win in November
Has the right experience
[All/Mixed]
[None/Other]
[Don't know]

Total
21%

Rep
19%

Men
20%

Women
22%

College
Degree
19%

No
Degree
23%

Strong
Leader
-

27%
15%

27%
15%

26%
17%

28%
13%

30%
13%

21%
19%

100%
-

13%
12%
9%
2%
1%

16%
11%
7%
2%
2%

14%
13%
8%
1%
2%

13%
11%
10%
3%
1%

13%
15%
8%
2%
*%

14%
8%
11%
2%
2%

Total
21%

Under
Age 45
20%

45+
21%

Very
Cons
23%

Evang
24%

27%
15%

28%
8%

26%
18%

13%
35%

20%
19%

13%
12%
9%
2%
1%

15%
16%
10%
1%
1%

13%
10%
9%
2%
1%

11%
3%
12%
2%
2%

12%
9%
12%
2%
2%

13. Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?

Yes
No
[No party/independent]
[Don't know]

Total
43%
52%
3%
2%

Yes
No
[No party/independent]
[Don't know]

Total
43%
52%
3%
2%

Dem
29%
68%
2%
1%

Rep
53%
44%
1%
2%

Under
Age 35
43%
52%
3%
2%

Ind
48%
42%
9%
2%

35-54
44%
50%
4%
2%

Men
47%
47%
4%
2%

Women
39%
58%
2%
1%

College
Degree
40%
55%
3%
1%

55+
42%
55%
2%
1%

65+
39%
58%
1%
2%

No
Degree
47%
48%
3%
2%
Under
$50k
41%
56%
1%
3%

$50k+
44%
52%
3%
1%

Lib
30%
66%
3%
1%

Cons
54%
43%
1%
2%