UNCLASSIFIED

:i| ,i Sill
5 3i: * i feiu

UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION

W i'sa^^ f S5•g8s>.•
NYO-li5l2 (Del)

RADIOACTIVE DEBRIS FROM OPERATIONS

TUMBLER AND SNAPPER
i-|l|sjl|f|sf
Observations Beyond 200 Miles jfrom the Test S i t e
i"!i|fj|f|°s|
Part I I
i r sir aSB-S

By

Robert J., L i s t

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February 25, 1953
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uthonzmg QSiciaV'
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UNCLASSIFIED
• n,'
 DISCLAIMER

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an

agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States
Government nor any agency Thereof, nor any of their employees,
makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal
liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or
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do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States
Government or any agency thereof.
 DISCLAIMER

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 CONTENTS

ILL05TRATI0NS Iv

TABLES V

ABSTRACT vi

CHAPTER 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF ATOMIC CLOUDS 1

CHAPTER 2 METEOROLOGICAL TRAJECTORIES 3

CHAPTER 3 FALLOUT MONITORING 5

3.1 Saiapllag Techniques 5

3.2 Extrapolation to Sampling Date 8
CHAPTER 4 RESULTS OF THE TUMBLER-SNAPPER FALLOUT MONITORING
PROGRAM 10

4.1 Buret Data 10

4.2 Pre-teat Background In the United States. . . 10
4.3 Maximum Observed Activity In the United
States and Canada 12
4.4 Fallout In the United States and Canada . . . 21
4.5 Discussion of Individual Bursts 23
4.6 Overseas Monitoring Program 45

APPENDIX A MAPS OF RADIOACTIVE FALLOJT IN THE UNITED STATES

AND CANADA '. 55

APPENDIX B COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF

FALLOUT 135

ill
iMiiMftiliif''^'^^^^---^-'^"*''-^""

ILLD5TRATI0HS

3.1 Location of Fallout Monitoring Stations in the United

States and Canada , 6

f 3,2 Comparison of Gumaed Paper and Air Filter Observations. . 7

*• 4.1 Pre-test Background Values on the Gummed Papers

(d/m/ftS/day) " 11

4.2 Highest Activity Observed on the Gummed Papers at Various

Distances From the Test Site ' 20

4.3 Radiosonde Observation for 1800 GCT, 1 April 1952 . . . . 24

4.4 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the First Burst. ^ . . . . 25

4.5 Radiosonde Observation for 1200 GCT, 15 April 1952. . . . 27

4.6 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Second Burst . . , . . 28

4.7 Radiosonde Observation for 1500 GCT, 22 April 1952. . . . 30

4.8 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Third Burst 31

4.9 Radiosonde Observation for 1300 GCT, 1 May 1952 33

4.10 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Fourth Burst 34

4.11 Radiosonde Observation for 1200 GCT, 7 May 1952 36

4.12 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Fifth Burst 37

4.13 Radiosonde Observation for 1200 GCT, 25 May 1952 38

4.14 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Sixth Burst 40

^ 4.15 Badlosond* Observation for 1300 GOT, 1 June 1952 41

4.16 Primary Cloud Trajectories for the Seventh Burst 42

4.17 Badiosonde Observation for 1300 GCT, 5 June 1952 43

4.18 PrlBBry Cloud Trajectories for the Eighth Burst 44

r
4.19 Primary Cloud Trajectories Across the Atlantic Ocean. , , 46

4.20 Unextrapolated Gummed Paper Data from Prestvlck, Scotland 48

iv

c;i
4.21 Unextrapolated.Gummed Paper Data from Rhein-Maln, Germany. . 49

4.22 Unextrapolated Gummed Paper Data from Vheelus AFB, Libya . . 50

A.1-A.79 Radioactive Fallout in the 24-hour Periods Beginning

1830 OCT, 1 April 1952 through 18 June 1952. . . . . 56-134

B.l-B.ll Observed and Predicted Areas of Fallout. . . . . . .137-147

B.12 Original (Dotted Line) and "R-cofflputed (Solid Lins) 16,000-

ft Trajectories for the Second Burst, and the Associated
Wind Field .148

TABLES

2.1 Standard Meteorological Sixrfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

4.1 Tambler-Snapper Tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

4.2 Maxlmnm Observed Activity at North American Stations .13-19

4.3 Interpolation Between Stations . . . . . 22

4.4 Unextrapolated Gummed Paper Activity at Central and

South American Stations. . . . . . . . , . .51-53

T
 ABSTRACT

The results of the fallout monitoring program at fixed stations

more than 200 miles from the test site following the series of atomic
tests in Nevada during the spring of 1952 are shown in a series of
maps. Trajectories of debris from the individual bursts are given,
together with a discussion of meteorological phenomena associated
with the transport of atomic debris.

It was foxind that significantly greater amounts of radioactive

debris were associated with tower burets than with air drops and that
significant fallout continued to be observed for longer periods
following tower burets. The important role of precipitation in
bringing debris to the ground was again evident. At practically all
stations, the highest activity observed on the gummed paper was
associated with precipitation and with a tower burst. The maximum
observed gummed paper activity was 7,900,000 d/m/ft^/day at Salt
Lake City: the maximum observed air filter activity was 130,000
d/m/meter^ at Elko, Nevada.

Debris from the second burst of the series which had been pre-
dicted to move eastward, actually moved around a small, newly-formed
cyclonic center in southwestern Utfih and then westward over Cali-
fornia. Although the presence of this cyclone may have been suggested
by the wind field, the existence of a cloud circulation could be
confirmed only by the radiological data.

Activity from this series of tests was detected in Europe and

South America, and in the case of the third burst>»signlf leant con-
centrations were detected by the monitoring network in the United
States after the debris had been carried completely around the
world.

i'rry
..,.^L^.^...^atoMm.^.,. ^^i^.d^^^.r:^.^^^.^.^^'^^^^^..!^^-^agk....^..M^,.^^.^i^,^.^l^J.~A....^...i. s.A^.^^^>^^^>r..:^^

CHAPTER 1

CHARACTERISTICS OF ATOMIC CLOUDS

The detonation of an atomic weapon in the atmosphere results in

a tremendous heat source. This heat in turn expands the air around
it and creates a bubble of intensely hot gases, which is lighter
than the surrounding air. As this buoyeuit bubble rises, it cools
both by radiation and by the entralnment of cooler surrounding air.
These processes produce a violent Inrush of air and serve to carry
aloft not only the debris resulting directly from the fission and
subsequent disintegration of the bomb casing and auxiliary equipment,
but also suck up great amounts of soil and dust from the earth below.
The ascending column of air and debris continues to rise until the
bubble of buoyant gases has cooled to equilibrium with its environment,
usually in about fifteen minutes. The height to which the cloud rises
ts governed primarily by the characteristics the burst and the stability
of the atmosphere.

The cloud of debris which evolves after the ascent has stabilized
eonslsts initially of a long, slender "^tem" capped by a broader "mush-
room top." Although appreciable amounts of debris are contained in the
stem, the great bulk of the material is in the mushroom cap. The sub-
sequent configuration of the cloud is determined by such factors as
the size distribution of the particles and the rate at idilch they fall
out and tha nature of the vlnd field which moves and diffuses the cloud.

The movement of the cloud is governed by the wind field. At any

given level the trajectory of the primary cloud, that portion of the ini-
tial cloud which moves approxlnws,tely horizontally and is unaffected by
diffusion or fallout, can be computed by conventional meteorological
techniques from upper air wind emd pressure data. TTie determination of
the movement of all the debris is, however, a vaxch loore complex problem.

It la, of course, apparent that all of the particles will descend

relative to the air euround them. The larger particles will fall to
the ground soon aifter the burst, trtille the smaller particles will
remain airborne for long periods—some for many weeks. Knowledge of
the else dlstrlbuilon and fall velocities of the particles is so
incomplete that only qualitative estimates can be used.

Similarly, the phenomenon of diffusion is difficult to treat in a

quantitative manner. It is evident that the ever-present turbulent
elements of the a!tmosphere will diffuse the debris both horizontally
and Tertloally, at a rate meuiy orders of magnitude greater than

'•CG
ordinary molecular diffusion. The extent of the diffusion depends
not only on the characteristics of the turbulent eddies of the
atmosphere but also on the time and space scale under consideration.
As the cloud grows, larger and lirger eddies become diffusing
elements, so that the rate of growth Increases.

Horizontal and vertical wind shears coupled with fallout and

diffusion result in a very rapid spreading of the cloud, both in
width and, even more markedly, in length. In fact, after a few
days of cloud growth the ordiiicLry cyclonas and antlcyclor^a of ths
weather map can act as diffusing elements. Although primary cloud
movement and the effects of shear can be determined quantitatively,
the complications introduced by fallout and diffusion make, it
necessary to use empirical techniques derived from studies of these
and other atomic clouds in order to determine the areas affected
by debris from the t^ts.

2
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CHAFEER 2

HBXEQROLOGICAL TEIAJECTORIES

The TOTOBsnt and distortion of the primary cloud, vhich can be

thon^^t of initially as the vertical line representing the core of
the cloud after it stablllisee^ c^n b« co^yt^^d fro™ r^ntln? upper-
air aeteorological observations. In the continental United States,
there are about 140 stations vhich report the direction and speed
of the Tflnds aloft every six hours. In addition, about 45 stations
take vertical soundings of the pressure, tenperature and moisture
content of the air to very high elevations (about 60,000 feet on
the average) every 12 hours. The results of these observations are
normally entered on maps representing surfaces of constant pressure.
For most purposes, including this report, these surfaces nay be
-considered as levels of constant height above sea level. The
ateuadard pressure surfaces for vhich meteorological charts are
usually dravn «md the heights above sea level i^ich they approximate
are given in Table 2.1.

TABLE 2.1

Standard Usteorological Surfaces

Pressure Approximate Height Above Sea Level

850 millibars 5,000 feet

700 " 10,000 •*
500 " 18,000 "
400 " 24,000 "
300 " 30,000 "
200 " 40,000 "

Since the 850 mb level is near to, or even below, the surface of
the earth in the vicinity of the Nevada Proving Ground, no attempt
vas Bade to trace the primary cloud at this level, although some
debris certainly is carried at levels below 10,000 feet. Therefore,
trajectories of the primeiry cloud vere cosiputed for each burst at
all standard meteorological levels from 700 nib to the top of the

^^0 O^s
ouafaroom. Vhere the top of the mushroom reached an elevation between
two atandard levels and it was felt that movements cosiputed from the
Dearest atandard surface would be unrepresentative, additional maps
were drawn for the Intermediate level. Since l^e bulk of the radio-
active debris is contained in the mushroom top, it was considered
partlciilarly inrportant to attempt to track the cloud at that level.

All trajectories were cosiputed by assuming that the flow patterns

Indicated on a given map were representative of the six-hour period
centered at the time of the obaervationa. As far as possible, actual
wind observations were used to determine the flow patterns. On
occasion, however, due to the paucity of wind observations it became
necessary to use the geostrophic wind, which is based on the relation
of the pressure pattern to the wind field.

Meteorological trajectories are, of course, subject to error,

particularly at levels or over regions of sparse data. In general,
over the United States for trajectories of the order of a thousand
miles, it has been found that the errors average ten to twenty per-
cent of the length of the trajectory.

" n9
 CHAPTER 3

FALLOUT MDHITGRIKG

3.1 SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

As described in Part I of the report, the two types of equipment

used In collecting debris at the ground by the fixed stations were
gummed paper and high-volume air filters, the former at 97 stations in
the United States, Canada and Bermuda and at 13 other foreign stations;
the latter at 51 stations within 1,000 miles of the test site. Twenty-
two stations made both types of observations. The location of the
stations in the United States, Canada and Bermuda and the type of observa-
tions made at each Is shown in Figure 3.1.

There is a fundamental difference between the two types of observa-

tion. The gtanmed paper collects debris actually deposited on a hori-
zontal surface, while the air filter collects particles suspended in,
or falling throi:igh the air.

Studies of previous tests, which have also been verified in the

present tests, have shown that the gummed paper collects significantly
greater amoimts of debris during periods of precipitation, as compared
to periods of no precipitation. No such large bias was found with the
air filter samplea.

A comparison of gummed paper and air filter results for the five
stations furthest from the test site making both types of observations
la ahown in Figure 3.2. The stations, Willlston, North Dakota; Bismarck,
North Dakota; Huron, South Dakota; Norfolk, Nebraska; and Concordia,
Kansas, are all about 1,000 miles from the site. The activity indi-
cated by the air filter is plotted against the activity on the gummed
paper for every case in which at least one of the measurements indi-
cated aignifleant amounts of debris were present on the sanipling date
( 0.1 d/m/meter^ for the air filter or 100 d/m/ft^/day for the gummed
paper). The open circles Indicate that no precipitation had fallen
during the period, the solid circles Indicate the occurrence of precipi-
tation. It is evident there is a positive correlation between the two
•^jrpos of obaorvation. An estimated regression line is shown. However,
the tendency for precipitation to bring higher values to the gummed
paper relative to the air filter readings is indicated by the tendency
for the solid circles to lie below the regression line, as well as by
the increasing proportion of solid circles to be found with. Increasing
gunned paper activity. The latter tendency is not found with the air
filter observations,

" -'• "tn

,.M^,^kW«i^M^^M£i^is^w<^a.<w^^M^^i^^ t^^^mmmmdmm^Mi^^^mm&i
i
.-^ 'I
Mmmmt^^tmMmmMa,imMmmMimim^,M^mmm^i^mtii>^tm iM^ut^tm^^U^uut^Am^^mtm^mmt^t

ipoo

Kp50 KOfXX 1,00(^030

vno
OJMMEO PAPER, d/m/f#day

FIGURE 3A COMPAWSON OF 6HMME0 PAPSB AND AIB FILTEft OBSEEVATION?

t ,"

2
 It should be emphasized that the characteristics of the gummed
paper are not fully known. For* example, the effect of teinperature
and humidity on the stlcldness of the paper has not been Investigated.
A snoir cover vould undoubtedly affect the collection characteristics.
Ihe amount of debris carried away In rain which runs or spatters off
the surface Is not Imown, nor Is the effect of the vigor vlth vhlch
the observer shakes off surplus water when removing a rain-soaked
paper from the frame. However, the Increase of reported activity in
precipitation indicated that debris is carried down in the precipita-
tion, and that the gummed paper does retain much of this debris.

The air filter, on the other hand, was sheltered from the rain
and debris contained in the precipitation elements is not collected.
Occasionally, in heavy rain, the water did get to the filter, in
which case the filter frequently burst and the sample was lost.

3.2 EXTRAPOLATION TO SAMPLING DATE

All activity reported for the United States and Canadian stations
has been extrapolated to tba sampling date. This has been done by
ascribing the measured activity to a peurticular burst and assvunlng
that the decay has been proportional to t"^*^^ vhere t is the time
since the burst. No attempt has been made to extrapolate the samples
from Uexico, Central or South America, Europe, or Africa because of
the difficulty of ascribing the observed activity to a particular burst.

Even for the domestic stations, there is considerable uncertainty

in determining vhlch burst is responsible for the activity at a given
station, although the bursts were separated by several days in these
tests. In addition to considering the computed meteorological tra-
jectories and estimates of low-level trajectories made from the flow
patterns near the ground, it is also necessary to note the arrival of
increased activity at the various stations. This is not always e«islly
donej for exainple, the onset of precipitation can result in Increased
activity on the gummed paper vhlch may erroneously be ascribed to the
arrival of debris from a more recent burst. Changing vind speeds or
directions may also cause Increases of activity not associated vlth a
new burst; this is especially true in the dry areas of the Southwest.
Since the samples are not measured until quite a fev days, and in some
eases veeks, after the date of observation, the extrapolation factors
can be quite large, as much as two orders of magnitude, if the collection
was made vlthin a day of the assigned burst. Another source of diffi-
culty is that minor contamination of the sample in the counting process
could result in very high extrapolated values, a possible example of
this is pointed out below in the discussion of the first burst. Also,
mixed debris from two bursts vould in general be all ascribed to the
latest burst.

8
 These factors, coupled vlth the tendency to ascribe debris to
the latest burst lAen there is sons doubt as to its origin, make for
a definite bias toward reporting higher activities than actually existed.
 ,^^J^^^^^^.^iAi^^&.^^^..M^.A^...^JM^^L. SL>^^^,,^^
i^ii

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS OT TIE TUMBLER-SNAPPER FALLOUT MONITORING PROCBAM

4.1 BORST DATA

Table 4.1 lists the bursts of ths Tusbler-Snapper series, the

type of burst and the repeated heights of the mushroom tops.

TABLE 4.1

Tumbler-Snapper Tests

Height of
Detonation Height of Top
Tlnw* Type Above Ground of Cloud (MSL)
Burst Date (GCT) of Burst (feet) (feet)

1 1 Apr 52 1700 Air Drop 800 16,000

2 IS Apr 52 1730 Air Drop 1,050 15,500
3 22 Apr 52 1730 Air Drop 3,450 42,000
4 1 May 52 1630 Air Drop 1,050 43,500
5 7 May 52 1215 Tover 300 34,000
6 25 May 52 1200 Tover 300 41,000
.7 1 Jun 52 1155 Tower 300 37,000
8 5 Jun 52 1155 Tower 300 41,500

*To nearest five minutes.

Since the heights of the cloud tops vere estimated from alrcreuft
or ground observations, it must be assumed that some iincertainty exists
as to the exact heights, particularly for the higher clouds.

*«2 PRE-TEST BACKGROUND IN THE UNITED STATES

The level of activity found on the gunaned papers prior to this

series of tests is shown in Figure 4.1. The figures indicate the
average activity (d/m/ft^/day) foxmd on all papers exposed at the
various stations during the veek preceedlng the btirst. It is evident

10
FIGURE 4 1 PRE-TEST BACKGROUND VALUES ON THE GUMMED PAPERS (d/m/ftt/dny)
that the background activity deposited on the gummed papers vas negli-
gible. The highest average activity at any of the stations was
10 d/m/ft^/day and the highest activity found on amy individual paper
was 45 d/m/ft^/day.

Unfortunately, air filter measurements vere not started at most

stations until the day of the first burst, so that no similar series
of background observation is available. However, at those stations
irtiich were obviously unaffected by the first burst on observations
started at 1830 GCT 1 Apr^ the activity vas less than 0.05 d/a/aeter',
and in many cases no activity was found.

4.3 MAXIMUM OBSERVED ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA

Table 4.2 shows the highest activity reported at each of the

domestic stations on both the gummed paper amd the air filter during
periods of no precipitation and during periods vlth a trace of preci-
pitation or more (see Appendix A for precipitation code). The stations
are grouped in accordance vlth distance from the test site. The
efficacy of precipitation in depositing high activity on the gummed
paper is clearly evident for stations at some distance from the test
site. Only two stations* more than 1,000 miles from the site had over
20,000 d/m/ft^/day without precipitation, while many experienced over
100,000 d/m/ft^/day in precipitation. It should be pointed out that
for stations close to the site, a cnnslderable bias exists for high
counts to occur in days vlthout precipitation because of the fact that
no tests vere detonated vhen there was rain in the area. Also, in the
southwest, the dry climate means there is a preponderance of days vlth-
out rain; no such strong preponderance of days vlthout precipitation
exists at stations over 1,000 miles from the site.

Figure 4.2 shows the highest activity encountered on the gunned

papers in each of the groups of Table 4.2, plotted as a function of
the distance of the outer boundary of that group from the test site.
The solid circles represent the cases vlth precipitation, the open
circles the cases of no precipitation. Some idea of the maximum
activity to be expected at various distances from the test site can
bo obtained from this figure. Hovever, great caution must be exercised
in drawing any general conclusions, since the data represent a very
limited sample, and presumably a combination of circumstances not
encountered in these tests could produce much higher concentrations of
radioeujtlvlty, particularly at those stations closest to the test site.
In any case, these figures vould only apply to the types of bombs and
techniques of detonation used in the Tumbler-Snapper series.

•These observations. Incidentally, each showed high counts on only one

of the three simultaneously exposed papers; the other tvo had negligible
activity.

12
 I

TABLE 4.2

Maxinum Observed Activity at North American Stations

Gu3nmed Paper Air F i l t e r

No Rain Rain No Rain Rain

1 .1

d/m/metcr'
tf

Activity
SI i

Burst
+» •p 4?-^ p< 4» •p
ri(M. O ^ tVJ •H (D

Station
•H 4-1
+>
^
1 > -P O
f>
•P " ^ U

- " ^
AsStatlons 200-400 naut. miles from the test site

Santa Catallna, Calif. 54,000 3 23,000 2 2

Los Angeles, Calif. 38 5 2.1 2 7
Bakersfield, Calif. 51 2 0.2 4 3
Fresno, Calif. 23,000 7 18,000 2 7 50 8 130 2 7
Sacramento, Calif. 18 8 5.4 3 8
Reno, Nev. 60,000 7 47,000 2 7 150 7 130 4 8
Winnemucca, Nev, 2400 7 5700 4 8
Elko, Nev. 710,000 7 400,000 4 8 93,000 7 130,000 4 8
Salt Lake City, Utah 3,300,000 5 7,900,000 4 5 1200 8 160 3 8
Flagstaff, Ariz. 5500 4 62,000 2 6
Phoenix, Ariz. 230 6 46 3 7
Yuma, Ariz. 2200 6 19,000 2 7 16 8 11 2 7
San Diego, Calif. 4.1 8 2.6 5 7

.es from the t e s t s i t e

or' Evu-eka, Calif. 25,000 3 27,000 3 7 5.4 6 5.1 3 7
Red Bluff, Calif. 22 7 45 4 8
Mt. Shasta, Calif. 14 6 46 2 8
 TABLE 4.2 (Contid)

Gumned Paper Air Filter

No Rain Rain No Rain Rain
•p •p •p
• •P
o ca
•
B o
•p B
Station •p
I •p •p
4? 1 4?
Msdford, Oregon 6300 3 61,000 5 7
Roseburg, Oreg. 6.5 1 1.5 2 5
Burns, Oreg. 46 8 77 2 7
Pendleton, Oreg. 8.4 7 44 3 8
Baker, Oreg. 24 8 440 4 8
Boise, Idaho 24,000 8 5,900,000 2 8 730 8 6800 2 8
Pocatello, Idaho 2200 8 1400 2 7
Lander, Wyo. 140,000 8 1,400,000 2 7 300 7 510 2 5
Rock Springs, Vyo, 210 7 1200 2 5
Denver, Col. 10,000 7 460,000 2 5 230 7 220 4 6
Grand Junction, Col. 370 8 180 2 6
Colorado Springs, Col. 7400 7 350,000 2 6 290 7 140 3 6
Pueblo, Col. 330 7 290 3 6
Alamosa, N. M. 190 7 520 4 6
Raton, N. M. 150 6 210 2 7
Albuquerque, N. M. 11,000 6 68,000 6 7 340 7 92 5 6
Tueson, Ariz. 8900 6 160,000 3 7 260 6 88 3 7

C:Stationa 600-800 naut. milea from the test site

Northhead, Wash. 370 4 2100 5 6

Spokane, Wash. 13,000 8 36,000 3 7 3.1 6 17 3 7
Eallspell, Mont. 210 8 51 5 8
Missoula, Mont. 110 7 220 8 8
 TABLE 4,2 (Cont'd)

Gummed Paper Air Filter

No Rain Rain No Rain Rain

•p

Buret
•p •p •
o

Act,
•p B o B •P B
Station
1 1
Butte, Montana 220 7 990 5 8
Helena, Mont. 380. 7 900 5 8
G^eat Falls, Mont. 190,000 8 3,600,000 4 8
Havre, Mont. 280 8 780 5 8
BUllngs, Mont. 35,000 7 69,000 2 8 810 7 390 2 8
Sheridan, Wyo. 420 7 390 2 8
tw Casper, Wyo. 280 7 500 2 8
Rapid City, S. D; 46,000 7 55,000 6 7 90 7 90 3 7
Scottsbluff, Nebr. 7800 7 160,000 4 5 190 7 320 2 7
Cheyenne, Wyo. 700 7 270 4 7
North Platte, Nebr. 130 7 150 3 8
Goodland, Kans. 4100 7 180,000 5 6 180 8 140 4 7
Dodge City, Kans. 150 7 17 5 6
AmariUo, Tex. 7600 6 7900 2 5
Rosvell, N. M. 31,000 7 190,000 3 7

D:Stations 800-1000 nattt. milee from the teat Bite

Williston, N. D. 12,000 7 16,000 4 8 74 7 230 4 6

Bismarck, N. D, 7600 8 21,000 3 7 52 8 190 2 8
Huron, S. D. 45,000 7 98,000 6 7 10 8 42 6 7
O' Valentine, Nebr. 120 7 120 6 8
Norfolk, Nebr. 13,000 ? 260,000 3 7 75 7 88 2 7
 TABLE 4.2 (Cont'd)

Gummed Paper

No Rain Rain

• •p
•
p
B o B
Station •p o
1 1
Ck>noordia, Kems. 280,000 7 170,000 3 1
Wichita, Kans, 85,000 8 130,000 7 7
Wichita Falls, Tex. 14,000 1 23,000 5 7
Abilene, Tex. 4100 6 17,000 4 7
Del Rio, Tex. 3400 6 730 4 5

es from the test Site

Fargo, N. D. 6300 7 14,000 3 6

St. Cloud, Minn. 8400 7 76,000 6 6
Rochester, Minn. 3000 7 140,000 4 7
Des Moines, Iowa 6000 7 240,000 5 7
Columbia, Mo. 18,000 7 35,000 2 1
Ft. Smith, Ark. 2800 7 110,000 6 7
Texarkana, Ark. 52,000 7 19,000 6 7
Port Arthur, Tex. 7600 5 2000 4 1
Corpus Christi, Tex. 3000 6 6000 2 7
.es from the test site

Green Bay, Wis. 6800 7 14,000 4 7

Milwaukee, Wis. 5500 7 290,000 5 7
Terre Haute, Ind, 13,000 7 460,000 5 7

<i
 QUIEDB~ Paper

l o Rain -
Rain

Yamphie, Tenn.
Jackeon, Wee.
Blew Orleane, La.
Peoria, 111.
G:Statione 1400-1600 aaut. nilse from the teat e i t e
Harquettu, Mich.
Saulte Ste k i e , Mioh.
Eecanaba, Mich.
Alpem, Mich.
Grad Rapide, Uch.
Toledo, Ohio
Fort Wayne, Ind.
Dayton, Ohio
Louieville, Ky.
Naehville, Tern.
Knoxville, Tenn.
Atlanta, Cab
Birmin&m, Ala.
,
Montgomery Ala
Mobile, Ala.
.
H:Stations 1600-1800 nsut. milee from the taut s i t e
N o r t h Bay, ht- 1000 8 5200 3 8
 TABLE 4 . 2 (Cont'd)
GuBBied Paper
No Rain Rain

• •p * .
Station . • -p
^
B
^
o
Ji i
Rochester, N, Y. 4100 6 93,000 3 7
Buffalo, N, Y. 6000 7 64,000 3 7
Dansville, H. Y. 2800 7 68,000 6 7
Dunkirk^ N. Y. 4500 8 55,000 3 7
YoungBtovn, Ohio 2400 7 20,000 3 7
Charlestown, W, Va. 4200 7 8400 2 7
Lynchb\irg, Va, 3300 5 . 17,000 2 7
Ck-eenville, S. C, 1500 7 42,000 3 5
Florence, S. C. 24,000 7 34,000 4 3
Savannah, Ga. 960 7 51,000 6 3
Jacksonville, Fla. 7800 8 3,000 6 3
Tallahassee, Fla. 18,000 3 3300 2 5
:Stations 1800-2000 naut. miles from the test site

Moosonee, Oht. 1700 8 56 (u) 5 8

Watertown, N. Y. 1900 7 170,000 5 7
Osowgo, N. Y. 1400 7 140,000 4 7
Syracuse, N. Y. 2100 7 34,000 3 7
Albany, N. Y. 940 7 55,000 4 7
Binghampton, N. Y. 590 5 8100 2 7
La Guardia, N. Y. 5500 7 60,000 6 7
 t ^

TABLE 4.2 (Cont'd)

Gummed Paper

No Rain Rain

•p
Station B

Harrieburg, Fenn. 4600 7 13,000 5 3

Wilmington, Del. 3700 7 17,000 4 7
Baltimore, Hd, 13,000 7 16,000 7 3
Richmond, Ya. 3200 7 17,000 7 3

J:Station8 2000-2200 naut, miles from the test site

<o Caribou, Me. 17,000 7 14,000 6 7

Mt. Washington 2700 5 26,000 2 7
East Boston 2100 8 43,000 3 7
Providence, R. I, 2100 7 57,000 4 7

E:Stations 2200-2400 naut. milea from the test site

Moncton 90(u) 8 22,000 5 7

East Port, Me. 920 6 22,000 4 7

L:Stations 2400-2600 naut. milea from the test site

Goose Bay, Lab, 390 6 2600 2 6

Stephenaville 720 8 20,000 5 7
Bermuda 1800 5 380 3 2
 lO^OOO
200 400 600 SOO 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 aOOO 2200 SIOO 2600

DISTANCE FROM TEST SITE , nout. ml

FIGURE 4.2 HIGHEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON THE GUMMED PAPERS AT VARIOUS

DISTANCES FROM THE TEST SITE

• • . - • - 20 ' • • . . '
 In certain zones (e.g., stations from 1000-1200 nautical miles
from the test site) none of the stations experienced as much activity
as vould have been expected on the basis of the results from stations
farther from the test site. For this reason, lines representing the
outer envelope of the points in Figure 4.2 at stations over 600 nauti-
cal miles from the proving ground have been drawn for the cases with
precipitation (solid line) and vlthout precipitation (dashed line).
The lines have not been extended to the area close to the test site
because of the greater probability that much higher activity occurred,
in this area, at other than the fixed stations.

It la interesting to note in Table 4.2 that at virtually all of

the stations, the highest activity is attributable to debris from the
tower bursts, irtilch create and carry alof-t more debris than would
result from an air drop. • In general, more activity vas observed in
the monitoring netvork follovlng a tover burst as conpared with an air
drop. However, other factors such as the intensity of the explosion,
the height attained by the debris, and, of course, the meteorological
conditions associated vlth the cloud may have^also contributed to this
difference.

4.4 FALLOUT IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA

4.4,1 Description of Maps

. THie results of the fallout monitoring program at the

fixed stations in the United States, Canada, and Bermuda are in
Appendix A, Figures A.1-A.79. Each map shovs the results of all
gummed paper and air filter observations started on a given day.
All significant activities are extrapolated to the sampling date,
the burst to vhlch the debris is ascribed is also indicated, aa are
the precipitation amounts at each station, in accordance vlth the
key printed on each map.

No measured gumned paper activities of less than 100

d/m/ft^/day or measured air filter concentrations less than 0.05
d/m/meter^ vere extrapolated to the sampling date. For low gummed ^
paper activities the actual unextrapolated value is given, for the
air filters low concentrations are indicated by an L. In a few
cases, the gummed papers vere inadvertently exposed for two or more
days, in that event the average dally values are shown in parentheses.

On each of the maps, a solid line outlines the area

with activity greater than 1000 d/m/f t2/day on the gummed papers, a
dashed line the area vlth more than 100 d/m/ft^/day. Areas of preci-
pitation in the United States are indicated by shading. (Precipitation

21
..^>a«^ii^^....^^,^^i..^^i^tea^a .Aa^.^t.^j.....^.>..^.. :^^r„il(U^«Cy!yife.^U^_^:»^^£^i^B(^
^-^-^^^ HTr^tf^i^'r^^l'fef
ii^ jyjftttir

areas are based on reports from the sainpling stations only, and
Interpalatlon betveen the stations is approximate.)

4.4.2 Interpolation of Activity Betveen Stations

The drawing of isolinesof activity implicitly assumes

that it is possible to interpolate betveen atations. It is, there-
fore, necessary to examine the validity of this assumption. For
this purpose, several groups of stations vere selected, each group
consisting of three stations at the vertices of a triangle and a
fourth station near the center. Three such triangles vere studied,
selected because the stations vere close together and not near
the test site. These groups of stations vere: l) Goodland, Des
Moines, Wichita, and Concordia, 2) Mllvaukee, Alpena, Fort Wayne
and Grand Rapids, and 3) Terre Haute, Dayton, Nashville and Louis-
ville. The gummed paper activity expected at the fourth station
of each group vas computed by assxunlng a uniform gradient of acti-
vity vlthin the triangle defined by the first three stations.
Table 4.3 gives the results of these studies. The first column
shows the computed activity at the fourth station, the second
column the value actually observed, and the third column the ratio
of the computed to the observed value.

TABLE 4.3

Interpolation Between Stations

Computed Observed Ratio

(d/m/f t2/day) (d/m/ft2/day) (computed/observed)

360 160 2.2

67000 12000 5.6
660 290 2.3
240 670 0.4
7400 11000 0.7
58000 120000 0.5
5000 6200 0.8
21000 280000 0.1
140000 400000 0.4
84000 34000 2.5
3100 3300 0.9
310 360 0.9
680 620 1.1 /
2700 600 4.5 /
900 1100 0.8
S400 2800 1.9
34000 13000 2.6
30000 14000 2.1
2000 1600 1.2
22
|^^..^.^.ia^a&a^afa^^.^i..i^^-^%^J&iAAa£^ •Mail

These results indicate that linear interpolation between

stations is a valid first approximation and in generaJ. vill be in
error by less than an order of magnitude.

4.5 DISCUSSION OF INDIVIDUAL BURSTS

All references to dates of sarrpling in the discussion to

follov are to the date of the beginning of tiis aaripllr^ parlod. It
should be noted that since the sampling period started at 1830 GCT,
the larger part of the collection vas actually made on the follow-
ing date.

4.5.1 Fifst Burst

The first burst of the Snapper-Tumbler series, an air

drop, vas detonated at 800 feet above the ground at 1700 GCT on
1 April 1952. The resulting mushroom attained a maximum altitude
of 16,000 feet above sea level. Figure 4.3 shovs a radiosonde
observation for this time. Trajectories of the primary cloud, com-
puted for the 700-mb (10,000-foot) level and the 16,000-foot level,
are shown in Figure 4.4. The 16,000-foot trajectory Indicated that
the debris in the mushroom moved rapidly eastvard emd reached the
East Coast in tvo days. Hovever, the 700-mb trajectory became
involved in a cyclonic circulation in the Great Lakes region and
the primary cloud at this level remained in the United States for
more than five days.

Since this vas the first burst of the series, and

the background observation prior to this date indicated no appreci-
able radioactivity, there is no problem in the assignment of the
activity to the proper burst. Certain observations are, hovever,
difficult to explain, unless it is assumed that contamination of
the sample occunred in some stage of the processing. For example,
the high activity observed at Spokane, Washington; Billings,
Montana; Bismarck, North Dakotaj and Tucson, Arizona on observations
Started 1830 GCT 1 April 1952 vould not have been possible from
the existing flow patterns. Also, in all of the cases mentioned,
the high activity vas confined to only one of the three papers
exposed; the actual measured activity on the most active paper vas
of the order of a fev hundred d/m/ft /day; and the average of all
three papers was about one hundred in each case. However, since
the observations vere made Immediately following the burst, and
not counted until 6-8 days later, extrapolation of the activity to
the saaipllng date resulted in recorded values in the neighborhood
of 1,000 d/m/ft2/day.

23

I >.'")
H
•Wa*Aai^J»AijiAM«««^ f.fa...atoi...Ai.iu>..i.«j^^^

45,000
FEET

40.000

<
35,000

M,000

25,000

N
CO

< 20,000

X
X \ K
1
X PORTED CLOUD TOP
I5.000 X 1*__R£
X
\ \
f
1
10,000
^
1
i
5,000 1 ^ V
\
0 mmim Xr
TCMPERATURE
!

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -«0 O^C 10 20 30

TeWPERATURE

Figure 4.3 Radiosonde Gbserr&tlon fOT- 1800 GC^^ 1 April 1952

24

'*''>f!
 -1 n

0 0 0 0 6CT POSITION

FIGURE 4 4 PRIMARY CLOOD TBAJECTOBIEi FOB THE FiKST BURST

y,ii,^A,|aiMMI^M^iA«lii&^te^l^^^H^MM^MiiteliMMaiMi&<£lMi)Wi.^^

Considerable a c t i v l t j not associated vlth. r a i n was

fotmd i a lew Ifexlco and the Texas panhandle on 2 April; in most
of Texas on the 3r4 and i n louisiajm on the 4-Oa. Tbia a c t i v l t j
was apparently associated vitii a rapidly-moving, dry cold front
w i t i eteong stirfaca winds from the lorthweet. This front passed
. ^ a r i l l o ^ foxaa^ a t 1300 GCT, 3 April 1952,

% 4 Apjdl^ the radioactive f a l l o u t Isacaa© spotty

aaS. T t r t u a l l j disappeared by the Sth, as the r a i n ended, wilii the
•xc«pti©n of •Om a»eat Plains r#>«ion,

l a t 6 l 8 mem&g -tti© coatlnaed praaenc© of f a l l o u t for

•«T@r«l days a f t e r tm b u r s t n a s t hare b@on due t o i^e e f f e c t of
l o c a l winds In plcMng up and redeposlting the d e t o i s , Periape^
•v«a tt« tmat s i t o I t s e l f continued t o a c t aa a source ©f wlnd-
lorn® contaaluation. ttia l a t t e r e f f e c t cottld a l s o aocomnt for
t t o M ^ a c t i v i t y foaM a t feaad Junction^ Colorado, on April 7,

By 11 Aprilj only t©B d ^ a a f t e r -tiie "burat^ depoaitad

a e t i v i t y waa v i r t u a H y tte amm as dia-ing tbe pre~teat Isacl^ound
ob®©rvatiOB8, with a tew ©xceptiona,

4.5,2 Seeood Btgst

Bie second iJurat of the s e r i e s , a t 1730 GCf^ 15

April 19S2, vaM an a i r drop detonated a t 1,050 f e e t above tho
^ o n n d . "&» reffultlng mashroom a t t a i n e d a imxlnoiB h e i ^ t of 15^500
f®«t a'bov© 0«a«level|, a l t h o u ^ the radiosond® obaervation indicated
no pronoanoed layer of atooapherlc s t a b i l i t y a t or neM* tliia height
(flffxr^ 4 , 5 ) ,

Tba ^ t a o r o l o g i c a l t r a j e c t o r i e s for t h i s liurst proved

t o ! « tJie atost UBcertain of any CCT^wted for t h i s eerioa of t e s t s .
I t "WOM o r i g i n a l l y aastuaed that the 16,000-foot p r t a a r y cloud moved
©ast and fl<^idmt a o r l i t o tlie upper iBid--western s t a t e s , and f ora-
caats of deposited a c t i v i t y were ^ d e on t h i s b a s i s . Vhmi d e t e i s
was not found a t Urn expected locations^ but instead ira,a found i n
tito f a r western s t a t e s Isegiiming on 18 Aprils a careful re-^xamina-
t i o n of W.9 tlmr p a t t e r n s was made. This revealed indications of
tii« foraatlon of a simll cyclonic disturbance i n tli© upper flow
Jttst t o •&# e a s t of ttie t e s t ait® on 16 April -which nov®d alowly
BOtttti«98t^a*4 oa aubsequont maps, Tim exlstoac© of -Qils d l e t u r -
feaac® ^as l a t e r coaf i n » 4 by a study of tts aupplonentary vind
©l»«rvatlo»^ide ¥y the Air Weather Service a t several s t a t l o a a
to tt« v l c i a l - ^ of the t e s t s i t e l a coan«ctton with te# t e s t s ,
Tlm89 obs@rvatioae ¥»r« not a v a i l a b l e a t thm tin© of the wfigiiml
forasftot. l0co!^ut«d teajectories a t 700 mb aad a t 16^000 f e e t
« • • Blown l a F i ^ r o 4 . 6 , Ttoa c«ipl©x axA confused patlit followed
hj t l » s » traJ@ctorl»8 ar© -ttw r e a u l t of a, l l ^ t ^ poorly defined irlnd

26
 45,000
FEET

40,000 • /
}
\
35,000 \ ,

K
k
3»iOOO
A
J 25,000
m \
'

6
< 20,000

15,000 N r~RE PORTE } CLOU DTOF

,
,

10,000

s.ooo
1—~~~ \
1
0 » KWff I E MPERATUP•£

-70 - -60 -50 -40 . -30 -20 -iO ' 0«C • AO 20 30

TEMPERATURE

flgor®' 4.5 Eadloaonde Observation for 1200 &JT,. 15 April 1952

8T

• ! " • >
SYMBOLS INDICATE POSITIONS AT 6-TOURLY INTERVALS,
DATE INDICATES 0 0 0 0 GCT PCBITION.
FIGURE 4.6 PRIMARY CLOUD TRAJECTORIES FOB THE SECOND BURST
.i^MhM,.«iMi;fe*aiilAahtA»£ai..^a^i

field^ and not too aach credence can be placed in th® exact position
•howB, l0«@ver, th® general area containing debris is indicated.
It i« int®r©stli^ to not0 that thd 16^000-foot trajectory stayed
wi-ttiltt a fsv hundred Biles of the test ait© and did not paee near
any stations of th@ monitoring network until 18 April. Prior to
•ttls 4at®7 th® ©aly activity found was in «i@ extreme southern part
of California^ In agreeMnt vith the TOO-mb trajectory.

Wrom 18 April to 20 April^ debris V&B d@poslt®d in

Iwndft, Itoho and adjoining states, in general a w e e M n t vith "Oxe
»v®TOnt of th® priory cloud at 16^000 faet. On 21 April^ a
•troBg current of air froa the north b@caa» ©stebliahed ov©r th®
•ws-torn states and swept th® 700-inb debris aoathward ov@r Msxico,
%• 22 April, ther® waa alaoat no significant activity attributed
to tills burst over the United States,

4,5.? Ihird Ra-st

Tim third burst of this aories was detonated at 1730

SCT, 22 April 1952. This burst vas also an air drop, detonated at
« hei^t of 3,450 f®at above tlie aurface, Tha cloud top reacted
42,000 fast above sea level, approximately th© lev®l of the tropo-
paus® (Figure 4,7). I^ajactorios of tim priimry cloud, coMputad
for all standard ^teorological levels from 700 to 200 mb are
shown in Figur© 4,8t Tho 300- and 200—mb trajectories indicate
thatto®ttpperpart ©f tho cloud moved eastward, -tti© priaary cloud
r®aehiag tto east coast in lees tlian tlsre# days, whil® the lower
portion a©v@d northward along the Pacific Coast into Canada, than
east aoid south liiroug^ th0 Miaaisaippi Talley.

Dobria frcm tho lower portion of th© cloud was found

in Sou-ai@rn California on the 23rd and northward to southern Oregon
on tha 24tii, On b o ^ days, the appearance of aebria at the ground
oocOTred about 24 hoiara after the conputed passage of the 700-iBb
•fa-ajectory. The absence of any debris nortti of fcdford, Oregon,
on •aeae or succeeding days is probably a result of th® fact -ttmt
th® wind in th© very lowest layers ahlftad from southerly to south-
westerly shortly after •tte beginning of the sailing period of 25
fey, bringing uncontamlnated air in from th@ Pacific along th®
Or®gon and Washington coastlin©.

Sv@n more intereatli^ istii®history of th© upper

portion of th® cloud. Aa can be seen from -Kbe naps of "Uae 23rd
ai^ 24th, no debris ia found under tto SOO-mb and 200-mb trajactorlee,
¥hich is ^ot surprising in v i w of the lack of precipitation in
th@s# areas. Am tl» hl^-level debris novad over th© eastern states
It ®ncount®r©d rather heavy and vldespread rain. On Idi© 24th, activity

29

35
^^^^,^mmmu^;^mh^,6^i^^m^Amsit,iimm^iA^a^ii^^^^^£ii^m;^^

45,000
FEET -

RETOR FEDCL OUDTO >

40,000 _

35,000

30,000

^
25,000
X
\
\J». X
b
\
X
X
< 20,000 X \ —*-~«-™™.«-
X ~ \\ •
• •

X
^ \
omp&K
' \
15,000 ^ — . ™ ™

10,000 •

5,000

ipewn«

-70 -60 -50 . -40 -30 -20 -10 ^ 0«C 10 20 30

TEMPERATUPE ' ' •_ "

f i ^ e 4.7 BadiosoM® Observation far 1500 G€T, 22 April 1952

30
m ^

SYWOLS INDICATE POSITIONS AT e-HOJRLY INTERVALS,

mm INWCATES 0 0 0 0 GCT POSITION.

FIGURE 4.8 PRIMARY CLOUD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TBHUJ BURST

<AAMi..«A.»..»^«»iM.aM.,aMMajM^^

¥a8 found at liiree stations—Montgomery, AlabMai Atlanta, Georgia,

m d Hicbmond, Ylrginia, althoiigh the rain -ma soTOwhat m w e irlda-
spr©ad. Eowttvor, by th® 25m, activity V&B general over th® Middle
Atlantic and South®aet©rn Stetes, again asaoclated vith rain. On
succeeding days, spotty activity was found in various sections of
th® country, Includir^ soBie debria apparently associated -with the
trajectories of th® lower half of the stem as it moved sou'ttward
ttarou^ th« Miasiaaippi Valley.

4.5,4 Fourth Bgt^wt

Th© fourth burst of this series occurred at 1630 GCT,

1 Jfay 1952, This shot vas also an air drop, detonated at 1,050
feet above the terrain. The rosuiting cloud reached an elevation
of 43,500 feet above aea-level, again about the level of tho tropo-
pauee (Figur® 4.9), Trajectories of the priaary cloud are shown
in Figure 4.10 for all standard aeteorological levels from 700 to
200 ab.

FrOK 1 Ifay to 4 Vaj, observed activities were in

accord with the computed trajectories, assuming that local winds
and lov-level flow patterns in the Southwest account for the
modsrate activity there, low®v©r, on 5 fcy, moat of the Western
states reported aoderato concentrations of debris, whereaa on the
preceding day the values were near zero at nany of -Uie stations.
Ihe appearanc® of activity in this region vaa in apparent contra-
diction to the expected movsment of debris from tha fourth burst.
It can be seen that there actually were two distinct areas of
activity, on© associated with th© trajectories from th© fourth
burst, and the other apparently centered over th@ Pacific north-
imst. By 6 fey, these two areas ajorged and by the ©nd of this
observation period debris from the fifth burst (ae@ belcsw, section
4.5,5) has reached Salt lAko City, It la difficult to r@concll©
th® app«aranc© oftiaedebris in tho lorthveat, and its subaequant
eastMTd 2»v©i!»nt, with the trajectories from the fourth burst at
any level. Hovever, the 200 mb trajectory of the third burst can
actually be followed cong)l@tely around th© earth, and vaa confuted
to cross the Califwnia coast at about 1900 GCT, 4 fey moving
to^wds the northeast. Although considerable uncertainty ia
attached to so loi^ a trajectory and to one computod over regiona
of such spare© B»t®orological data aa exists in Asia and th© Pacific
0c®an, it still offers th© moat plauBibl© explanation of tto
appewaace of activity in the nortlwestarn states on th® Sli,

Ho attempt has been tnade to distinguish bet^«©n th©

debris from the liiird and fotirth bursts in sxtrapolating th© acti-
vity to the observation date on 5 May or on succeeding days. How-
ever, sine© this is so long after either burst, the correction would
Slave the effect of reducing th® exta^apolated values at moat by about
25^ fat those stations which had debria from the third burst.
32

I * if
iM^i^te^iMl^^te<^i«^M<*>^Ktei«tf^jMrfM>.<iA^^^w&i^te^i^^a^taM^M^teMlHMk^^

45,000
FEET I—
>WrED CLOJD T O P

\ \

KK
40»OOQ

3S,000

30^000

2S,000
^ \ •

^ 20,000 . \

' \
^
"-%
15,000
\
.
1
..,. \
10,000
.A,

5.000
06»
1 ^ mmm.

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -iO 0®C «0 20 30

TEMPERATURE

flg«ir« 4.9 laAloaonde Obeermtioa for 1300 «f^ 1 m^ 1952

.?^
FIGURE 4 10 PRIMAEY CLOUD TRAJECTORIES FOK THE FOURTH BURST

.1
,^,^^iamm.i^Mi^l^^^khAMMMiAMtLh;i,at.^i^^

4.5.5 F i f t h Buret

Tb» f i f t h b u r s t of t h e s e r i e s was detonated froa a 300-

foot tower a t 1215 GCT 7 Ibj 1952. Bie a t « i c cloud a t t e l M d a
lazimiB a l t i t u d e of 34,000 f e e t several ^ o u s a M f e e t below the
l e v e l of th© tropopauso (Figure 4 . 1 1 ) .

SliM® t h i s waa the f i r s t tower b u r e t of the oerioo.

More debris was expected than was associated with the "^o p r e c e d i i ^
b u r s t s , "both, because of ttie vaDorizatlon of ]M.terial froa & e toirar
and froa th© increased amount of terrostrial debris r e s u l t i n g from
th© closer proximity of the b l a a t t o tto ground. Figure 4»12 ahaww
the c o ^ u t e d t r a j e c t o r i e s of •Uie primary cloud for a l l standard
iwteorologlcal l e v e l s from 700 Mb t o 300 n b . Debris a t ^m three
upper l e v e l s moved alaiost d i r e c t l y eastward, l ^ s p r l ^ i r y clo«d
reaching -ttie coast within about two daya* Hie 700 nb (10,000 f e e t )
t r a j e c t o r y moved oo^-Hhat slower, but over tho saaw general reginn.

Debris frsHB the b u r s t produced the h i ^ a a t deposited

a c t i v i t y a t the fixed a t e t i o n s i n tho v i c i n i t y of the t e a t s i t e of
a i ^ of the t e s t a . I h i s -was due t o the c<anblned e f f e c t s of h a v i i ^
a tower b u r s t , alBiost no "wind shear frcM 15,000 t o 30,000 f e e t and
t o the occurrence of irldeepread l i ^ t p r e c i p l t o t i o n in the a r e a .
Almost e i g h t million d/m/f t^/day were observed a t S a l t LaSa 0 1 - ^ i n
th© observation s t a r t e d ©n 8 fcy; a c t i v i t i e s of Bsveral tandred
thouaaad d/m/ft^/day were observed as far away as western Sebrasto
and South Dakota, a l l associated with r a i n .

Moderate a c t i v i t y wis observed - t t r o u ^ o u t ao«t of •tte

United S t a t e s \ m t i l 10 fcy, and p e r s i s t e d i n t h e area near ^B t e a t
Bite and In the eaatern s t a t e s for several subaequant toys. Biia
a c t i v i t y , al'Uiough priffiarily from ttie f i f t h b u r s t , c o n t a i ^ d roa»
nants of debria from the fourtJi b u r s t and a l s o f r o a the -ttird, as
described In the preceding section* I t i s q u i t e p o s s i b l e t l m t tte
a c t i v i t y observed i n the southeaatern s t a t e s froa 8-10 fcy, so^what
t© th® south of -ae computed trajectOT»i88, I s i n r e a l i t y tobrlB
from an e a r l i e r b u r s t but has been erroneously extrapolated a s
debris frcm the f i f t h b u r s t , m k i n g for f i c t i t i o u s l y l a r ^ reported
a e t i v l " ^ a t these s t a t i o n s .

Depoalted a c t i v i t y ©f several hundred d/m/ft^/day vao

observed a t varioue s t a t i o n s -ffiroa^iQut the country for a t l e a s t
f i f t e e n daye following the f i f m b u r s t .

4.5.6 S i x m Borst

til© slxtii b t ^ e t of ^ e 0 o r l e o , a l s o a tower s h o t , waff

detonated a t 1200 03T, 25 ^ ^ 1952* '&M cloud from 'ttiis b u r s t
attalMd a ^ l ^ m a l t l t o d e of 41,y00 f e e t , a p p r o i i a a t e l y t l » l e v e l
<rf -tte tropopause (Figure 4 . 1 3 ) .

'{}
 MM.«..^il«MAfaMjM.J>.«M..iAiMMA^^

45,000
FEET

40,000 \

k
^

35,000
1 \S r — e i •PORTED CLOl©TOP

30,000

25,000 N M—.^—^
j

< 20,000

I5.«X» — , — ™ .

io,»o —_^_
I
X
1
1
t \
8,000
iX \
OiwroWT TEM^RATUBE
[ I

'0 -©a -s0 -40 -50 -2 D "IC3 0®C 13 20 30

TEMPERATURE

figBT* 4«11 BadiO0ond© Observation for 1200 OCT, 7 fcy 1952

36

,..|
 l> 1

J
X /
^

'rn
.^_4 • ••

•'^}!AV^

^
^W
\

tOMAY^
-^.-.
L:
~pz rCK)MB;C!0,000Ft)

_,—,—,—,-.f.

:\. ^ • • i
J "1

SYMBO-S INDICATE POSITIONS AT 6-HOURLY INTERVALS. -I—i-ar-t—t-

DATE INEXCATES 0000 6GT POSITION.

FIGURE 4.12 PRIMARY CLOUD TKAJECTOHIES FOR THE FIFTH BURST

o^gk^^^^^mahiLmt^tltmMm, iAi.J»...l»iMai«,atti.y»^AM.tta.>Mt^^ nn^nsmmmm^ MtMM^kl

< 20,000

15,000

10,000

s.ooo

-30 -20 -10 20 30

TEMPERATURE

Fipo-e 4.13 ladioaonde Obeervation for 1200 OCT, 25fcy19S2

§8

' "I
•>JMjMt.MiMapMaa«.i>a.,iMi.««Mi».«MMaji,i«-i<a^

Ihe trajectories of the primary cloud from this burst

are shown in Figure 4.14, In general, they are similar to those of
the precediiig buret, indicating little wind shear In the first
IjOOO miles from the test site, but moving somevhat more slowly,
t ^ upper trajectories crosalisg the Atlantic Coast in about three
days.

Agreeiwnt between areas of observed activity and the

computed trajectories vas quite good, a e lack of vind directional
shear in the first part of th® t'^'nj^'ctorl'ss r^S'ilted in 2, i:srr'r'^
area of ground contamination on 26 May. On 27 fey, heavy ralna in the
Great lakes region were responsible for the increased activity there.
Fairly strong activity from the buret was general over moat of th©
United States at least until 1 June, undoubtedly the result of the
great aaount of debris fron a tower burst as ccmpared vith an air
buret.

4.5.7 Seventh Burst

d e seventh burst -m^B detonated at 1155 GCT, 1 June

1952, Ube cloud frcMtiilBtower shot reached 37,000 feet, approxl-
aately the level of the tropopause (Figure 4.15). Hie trajectories
associated with this burst, vhich alao Indicated little directional
shear in the w l M field, are shown in Figure 4.16.

The results of the fallout monitoring networi: for this

buret alio clearly illustrate the greater amounte of debris associated
with a tower burat. Hlgji activity was found under the priiwry cloud
trajectories on all daya following the burst. The almost conjilete
lack of vertical shear in the trajectories until they reached th©
CSilo valley, coupled irlth videspread rainj resulted in th® greatest
concentration of deposited activity In the Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
and Wisconsin area observed for any of the bursts. Aotivities of
several hundred thousand d/m/f t^/d^ vere f oiand in each of these
states on 2 June. Strong concenta'ations of both deposited and air-
borne debriai froa Idae seventh burst vera fotmd over nuch of the
country on oucceeding days,

4.5.8 B i i ^ ^ Buret

The ei^th and last burst of the eerlea vaa a tower

shot detonated at 1155 GCT^ 5 June 1952. Th© resulting oushrooa
reached to 41^500 feet^ again near the level of ttf tropopause
(figore 4,17). The trajectories of the prl^ur-y cloud are shoim
in Figure 4,18. Tbe ta'ajectorles are again characterized by little
dlrectloial wind shear ^ as in lii© throe pravioua bur eta. In this
case, however^ ^ e debris took a uiore northerly patti, and reached
Southern Canada before turning aoutteaatward and passir^ over the
Middle Atlantic states.

39

'4
.A^^M^M^M^AMfa •»M«^l***'»a»'itt^««iM»«Mfi»il-^^
.^^t •lll»»JM^i"l^>.«»-«'>--»«<»M»Mll.^^ ikUittl.i«*i*«MM» m^MntaiMmimUm h^^mimt»mtim,*tiSmm*^sili^^

FEET

40.000 \
i —
1 1

1< I
U - REPORTED
> f
CLOUD1 TOP
35,000
l\

IV
kV
30,000

_j 25,000 V
to

< 20,000 ^

15,000
\
\
\
\
N \
\

\
%
\
*, \
10,000
\
\
V
\
\
\ \
^

\1
5,000 : \
\
"'V
BEw'pi 3INT TEWTOATU C

0 I
-70 -SO -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0®C !0 20 30
TEMPERATURE

F i ^ i r e 4.15 ladiosond® Observation tat 1300 GCT^ 1 June 1952

41

Ih
SYMBOLS INDICATE POSITIONS AT 6-HOURLY INTEWALS.
DATE INDICATES 0 0 0 0 GCT POSITION.

FIGUBE 4 16 PRIMARY CLOUD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE SEVENTH BURST

i I r -V.
HHteiMklMita>ttb<Mio^yM.te ^iM^aUUS^MA,tMmt.,tmmtmm,Mtttm.,t,^a:d,immii^mlml^, a^MMkiaiMIMiW^ jiLiiutlkditMa,^^^iltiM,,&mMiiiid

FEET

REPOR TED CLOUD TOP

40,000 L 1_.____ L

\
35,000 \

30,000 \
\

J 25,000 \
« A
2

g \

< 20,000 \

to

15,000 V
1
10,000 \
1
1
1
1 \
5,000 ;
\
SEW POINT TEMF EWITIRE

0
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -!0 0"C 10 20 30
TEMPERATURE

Figure 4.17 Badiosonde Observation f o r 1300 GCT^ 5 June 1952

i^3
•l#M^t.4».^*J>.M.^^iMAJ>--M«-.i..^^ tisM^M '•^MM,,M,imaamiimAMMt,A,da,j^AM£^LjJadmt^Jlm
Jl
^^*t^<^iAi*aiM^Ma<«.^MM;»A.ia*JjMU^

Aa irlt^ -toe o t t e r tower b u r s t s , t h i s t e s t a l s o pro-

duced heavy concentration of bo-Qi airborne and deposited d e b r i s ,
M ^ t r a i n to the north of the t e s t s i t e i n the 24-hour period
following the buret led to gusmed paper a c t i v i t i e s of several
B i l l i o n d/a/ft^/day a t Great Falls^ Montana, and Boise, Idaho, on
S June, Also on t h l a date by f a r the h i ^ e a t concentrations or
airborne a c t i v i t y vere found on Hm hlgh-volUB» a i r - f i l t e r samples.
Values ©reater- than 1^000 d/a/aieter^ were fotmd a t several s t a t i o n s
t o the north, of the t e s t s i t e , aad a value of 130,000 d/m/meterS
was observed a t l l k o , levada. H l ^ a c t i v i ^ froia t h i s b u r s t con-
tinued in the expected areas on the succeeding daya. I t i s
i a t e r e s t i c g t o nets t h a t ths s c a t i i c s s t s r s bo-ondsry cf the area of
a c t i v i t y from the e l # . t h b u r s t progressed e a s t ^ i r d in a regular
fashion on the naps of 7 and 8 June. Tbla boundary coincides i n
each case irtl^ th® southeastern boundary, a t the end of the
saa^llng period, of a imss of cold a i r -moving sou-tiieastward froa
nestern Canada, Since the t r a j e c t o r i e s of the priiMry cloud passed
over or tteough t h i s a i r aaaa which waa characterized by considerable
i n s t a b i l i t y , i t :^y be aastaced t h a t the debris was diateibuted
ttrottghottt i t s v e r t i c a l e x t e n t .

Activity i n appreciable amounta continued to be present

in the United States for maxij days a f t e r the l a a t t e s t . A l t h o u ^
a t quite a few s t a t i o n s a c t i v i t y began t o approach th© p r s - t e s t
b a c l ^ o a n d levels by IE June, spotty a c t i v i t y of more thati 1.000
d/m/ft^/day on the guisned papers and more than 2»0 d/ffl/tteter' on tiie
a i r f i l t e r contiaued u n t i l a t l e a a t 18 June, t i e ©nd of aaarpling
for t t e s e teate^.

4.6 QimSEAS MOIITOBIIG PBCMIAM

In addition t o the s t a t i o n s i n Canada and Bernuda, reported i n

tlie precediiag seetlona^, gmsBed paper observations were ^ d e a t ^ r e e
s t a t i o n s in Europe and Africa and a t one in the Canal Zone by the
USAF Air Weather Service and a t seven locations in fexico. Central
and Soutli ^erlc&JJBBSSBSBBBBBBSBBBBBlA ^^ attempt bas been
HBde t o extrapolate tlie a c t l v i t j a t a n j of these s t a t i o n s to tlie
aaarpllng date because of tlie d i f f i c u l t y in determining vbich bwrat
tti© debris caae from. Since there was a miaiffluja of a t l e a s t five
or six days betifeeix the b u r s t date and tlis date a c t i v i t y was f i r a t
detected a t any of the s t a t i o n s , the maxlinam extrapolation factor
C If th© s a ^ l e were not couiite_d u n t i l several weeks l a t e r ) vould
be of "tee order of t e n , and in a l a o s t a l l cases "would be considerably
less.

^'S,! Eyrope and Africa

Thm locationa of tho stations in Europe aad Africa ao-e

shown In Figure 4.19, togetiier with the la-ajectory of each of the
cloud® which oottld b@ tracked across the Atlantis, Only the topoost
4S

ro
 t

PATE INDICATES PCBJTION AT 0 0 0 0 GCT. \ •

,w
FIGURE 4.19 PRIMARY CLOUD TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

I 1 I I
} *
 teajectory tar each clomd ia shown aince thia reproaenta th® level
of BaxliBua initial concentration and also, presuHsably, (in the
case of the seventh aM. eighth bursta, lack of wind data at 200 mb
.Wide it.neceaaary to aae the SOO-mb trajectories) th® level of
BaximuB wind speed. The .gaim»d paper activity, uncorrected for
• decay, at each of the atatlona^—Prestwick, Scotland; Shein-lain,
• Qeraanyj and Hheelua AFB, Tripolii—are shown in Figures 4,20-4,22,
together irlth •Gi® aaount of precipitation observed during each
sampling period, • . ' .

"**®»2 Ifexlco„ Central and South America

The results of the fallout nonitoring program at.

Btatinns In texlco. Central and South Anerlca are given in Table 4,4,

Bie table gives 'the'""unexte'apoiated'""activity

Bieasured on th© gummed' paper, together withtiiaconcurrent proclpl-
totlon (see figures in the Appendix for code table,). At several ata-
tiona vhor® 'no rain gage was available, d © afflounts of precipitation
"w®r@ eati^tad by the obe.orver.

The paucity of netaorologlcal data nakes it impossible

to coinput®te-ajactorieain these regions. However,teajectorlasof
several of tho biirsts .Ce,g,, Figa. 4.S' and 4«16) indicated, a aouth-
"ward wsvoa@nt of 0 0 ^ portion'of tho priaary. cloud, and in other
ca®«a- debris which passed -oastward over the Atlantic iwy hava recurved
to th® soutli and west .around tte Bermuda anticyclone, so liat 'prinary
cloud debria aa far south aa Central Aiserica is a posaibility,'
al-toough atiGh .movaaent would be alow coHiparsd to the average'sBid-
latitttd© aiov«H»nt0.- ^ . • . . ;

•" - • -Ifaich of -tte debris which reached the Central and South
Affi@rican stations, and probably all that reached the two southenaost
stotlona of South Aaerica arrived as the result of mor© coBrplex flow
patterns. One process by vhlch debris could be carried to southern
latltudoe is by the diffusion and/or fallout of dabrla into -tte
ncrtheaat "toadea of th© northern hemlsphor©, There, winds vould carry
th® dabrie aouthward to the intertropical convergence zone, wh®r8
Blrlng ifi'tii aouthern hemiaphere air would occur, I^bria could also
b@ brouglit to souiaiern latitudes by diffusion and fallout from the
north winds- •^ich are frequently observed at h i ^ levels in the
tropica.

• • Significant activity waa found at La Paz, .Bolivia, and

LiMt, P«ru., during.th© first w o k of May, but If is la^iosalble to.' ...
determina If there VBM a souttoard progroaalon of debris, sine®.'
th@s® .1»© stations begMi obaervations several' daya before the •other .

47
^MM^mu^mtMtm^^i^iMMMmMi^^ii^mm ri^jtUfcrM^^t^lMtatt •nUkMhtU^
s^M^mtm^mmiuAtJtM^m ,A^,.^itti^^^Ki«itebMM.^d

4000

'
n

soo

L
400

t 300

L.

r, i
1 rrf
ISO
-J •
n

r-

30

__ \
n -^

s»o XUxL 1 11111 1 . i i - .1 M IMI I I I ! S „ 1 1 11 1 1 M 1 tl M 1 n s 111» J J i X J 111 1 H I 1 11 1 M 1 1 1 1

IMAY IJUN O
Tmkimt e IS

ao«- oiaf -
aor- QoS" ~
ftONS- £LJ r^ nrJ^U „ nn f\m ^r
FIGTOE 4.20 UNEXTRAPOLATED GUMMED PAPER DATA FROM PftESTWICK, SCOTLAND
%^&imiamii6seeiA^iiii^BSe&mi&BliaS^ ^4ii,e^.B«jH,gg«iriai£,^«jMffi!MS«iw^£$^l^£^>£jJ»;^^

4000

3000

2000

1000
900
800
700

• soo
500

400

9?; 300

200
IT
W

d
X
100
90
ao
ro
so
sot
n
40
M
30- I
2C^

StOtiXLUlllLU jjj. JLJJXl jJOlLlLLl 1,1 l-UXLLLXUUi-U ,11 ( LLLiXl U-LLLLLU-LUUL

1 ^ 13 B I awe
l.0(- 3.00 -
031- lOtf - PRECIPITATION
aii-0.30"-
e«-o.io*-
<xoi-ao3" -
THAOE-
NOI« —
nPrn , , f—^'ijl r-_-J-X3uaJl-

FIGORE 4.21 • BNKXTRAPOLATED GUMMED P A P E R DATA FHOM RHEIN-MAIN, GERMANY

m
••««.*AJi-»*»»Mia»tMtMJii»AA.Mj^^ ^^tm^^^^^m ^^^Mtilt^«*tt,,«MiAteite^iMiA>iiiA«>Ai*iii^ im>,mtatmtiim>mait^mm

4TO0

«ftAfS

'
L
400

I K.

200 1

i p.
-
•

©0 J
-]

50
^ h
r' -'

1
u
-J
1
Lr
J
. .,.„ I
lAPFBLmSZ IS !N AY 15- 1. UNE 6

A. L jiLiijija
FIGTOE 4.22 0NEXTRAI>OLATEn GUMMED PAPEK DATA FROM WHEELUS AFB, LIBYA

" }
 *f

TABLE 4.4

Unextrapolated Gufflmed Paper Activity at Central and Soutti .A^rloan Stations

Ifexico C i t y San Jose Canal Zone Bogata Quito Lima JM. Paz Santi^o
19°26 8 H 9*58« I 8 *58 « I 4*32» K 0*1C ' S 12*00« S 16" 29 • S 33*28' S
99* 8 » ¥ 84" 4 ' W 79 "33 » ¥ ?4»15' ¥ 78* 3C\* ¥ 77*00* ¥ 68** 3 « V 70*45« ¥
MU
a
0
O
1n
§ 11 § o
•H

> •P
•P

•H
^ N
b. 4 *
-P
-H P- 43
h f
t

Acti

Precip
(d/a/f
•H 33 5 •H 5"
^1 O O
lay
2
® m
4
"s 1
3 1400 1
«n 4 4 1 0 1
5 51 1 16 1
6 12 mod. 0 4 37 1 62 1 45 1
7 4 hiYj. 29 6 5 1 55 1 0 1
8 4 none 6 1 420 1 13 1 0 1
9 56 mod. 0 4 6 1 8 1 1fo
10
11
8
18
nod.
hrj'
0 Igt.
6 bvy.
0
6
6
5 -y.. 1 0
0
1
1 J
1
12 170 1 4 h.Yj» 1 3 BOd, 0 1 0 1 0 1 8 4
13 34 1 0 hYj, 13 t r . 0 2 5 1 21 5
14 4 mod. 13 none 4 5 9 1 8 1 13 5
15 120 1 8 nod. 0 Igt. 0 4 13 1 8 4
16 64 1 0 none 4 1 4 1 —«^
17 16 1 8 hvy. 0 tr. 9 1 }2 3
1 ? 1
18 330
79
1 0
0
Igt,
Igt.
10
0
nod.
hvy.
0
48
1
5
'£<

0 1
0
0
1
1
J 0 1
19 1
20
21
26
13
1
1
0 KOd.
65 I g t .
9
25
ttod.
Igt.
24
86
5
3
14
7
1
1
7
25
1
1
1m I
22 13 100 Igt 17 18 Igt. 77 29
 TASK 4.4 (cont'd)

Ifexioo City San Jose Canal Zone Bogata Quito Lima ta Paz Santiago

Prec
• a
o « « o
^ 8 i A8

Act.
® © 43 ®
43 43
Date
^ ^ ^ £ ^ ^ ^ A ^ A ^
May
23 270 3 39 none 12 5 80 Igt. 72 1 8 1
24 a hvy. 27 2 160 Igt. 520 2 16 1 {4 1
25
26
95
170
4
2
71 Mod.
15 mod.
14
0
1
1
68 Igt.
19 Igt.
12
30
6
2
13
10
1
1 9 2
J
2? , 170 2 58 mod. 17 2 36 tr. 22 1 38 2
28 65 3 38 hvy. 58 1 120 tr. 0 1
29 15 6 110 Igt. 20 1 24 mod. 45 3 10 1 *">
01 30 120 5 62 mod. 230 2 190 b¥y. 16 3 21 1 30 1 1
31 29 6 58 hvy. 480 4 18 Igt. 17 1 11 I 5 1 -•1 4

Jvtxm
1 310 3 49 Igt. 175 1 28 1 110 1 560 4
2 34 1 28 hvy. 38 1 5 I 28 2 19 1
3 24 2 35 mod. 34 1 12 1 28 2
4 39 6 57 hYy. 49 7 12 Myy. 5 2 74 2
5 22 4 17 mod. 80 4 41 mod. 11 1 10 1
6 13 4 22 hvy. 90 X 6 Igt. 18 2 35 1
7 150 4 9 hvy. 130 5 9 hvy. 21 4 •"•2 1
8 390 2 6 hyy. 100 1 4 mod. 27 4 140 1
9 67 2 0 iBod. 38 2 16 mod. 0 5 11 1
10 110 6 hyy. 92 25 tr. 20 17 1

)i
 1 1
• • »

TAMJ: 4.4 (cont'd)

Mexico City San Joee Canal Zone Bogota %iito Lima IA Paz Santiago

ft o 4^ 8
9
o
4S
m 45 8 4* 43 +» +3 © 4* ®
^t© ^ A ^ A ^ A M ^ A
11 9 2 0 hTy. 110 5 11 Igt, 4 1 45 1
12 42 5 0 tr. 0 I 5 1
13 11 2 17 t r . 15 1 6 none 0 I 6 1
14 26 hvy. MOO 1 6 Igt. 4 2 17 1
15 35 1 6 hvy. 12 1 0 rood. 120 2 9 2
16 11 1
17 6 1
18 23
n
tiadi^aii^i^^iumtm^^mMSmtMikSAmaimmi^mtm^titmii^m^Mti^t^kmmmma^

C^ttteal mA Smxth ^ e r i c a a a t a t i o n a . Of cowrse, i t i s alwaya possi-

tln ^a&t BQWB of •&® a c t i v i t y ^ whicli W^B r e l a t i v e l y low in Boat
®ates^ •«« a r e a a l t of cont^oination dicing •tiie counting procedure.
However^ "tter* did seaa t o t® a aoutlnmrd progression of a s t i v l ' ^
•wfeloh. was f i r s t o'bterved a t San Jose^ Coata l i c a , on 21-22 Ifay; a t
B<^ota, GoltmlJift, oa 23 fey; a t Quito, Scuadcsr on 24 Ifayi and a t
L i ^ mA Im, Pat on 1 June, Bi® f i r s t I t e e e s t a t i o n s were aor1^ ©f
tt# liit@rtropical convergonc© zone^ effectively i n lorttiern Eemiapliere
a i r , lAil® i ^ a and l a Paz were i n Soaliern Hemlapliero a i r .

54
^MttMb^^fittl^ta^^tU^iMAA^^M^^ia^i^^kli^^^^&tf^^t^^^

. • -APISIDIl 1 .

MffS OP HlDIOACTIfE WMLOm I I THE UHIH) STAKS Affi) CMADA

Flgores A»l-A.79 show "tt© data from tlio fallout-aionitorii^

atationa- i n i±m United S t a t e s and- Canada^ p l o t t e d i n -accordance
•witli th© toy ia*int®d on eacli map. • (Taluea in paren-ttoaia indicate
•fee aT-srsg* d a i l y •^sl'se? for o^^-r^^atioH? vMc^ inad^^rtei^tly
• @X"tend®d tor more than- one d ^ . ) Snow ims teen reduced t o I t s
iiater «q:Ulvalent,

. . ' t t e daalied l i n e s otatlln© areas vl-tt r a d i o a c t i v i t y ^ a a t e r

tlian .100. d/m/f t2/day oa the g u s ^ d papers, t i e s o l i d l i n e areas
witli more tlian-' 1000 d/m/f t^/day. Areas of p r e c i p i t a t i o n are i n d i -
cated "by shading.- . . • ' - -

55

r:i)
Flfuro A.2 Rodloictwi ffl|lo«t In tht 24-hoiir ptrlod btgifmlng 1830 6.0.1, 2 April 1952
I
c5
I
I
5
1
m
.2
o •
itAMiiiMH* tM^i.MB^AMi^«M^M^taMn«^»* iMmhMnttmaMmtmm <4A>MMuiailttitrt»M>wM
0
I
m
1
m
§
!_ fe§§i§i§iiii
11 ^iiiiiiisii
-., , linn
P lliilii!:
^^
t^fi^^gmitkkmmm^mt^t^mMa^mt^ii^immiiimiMfmAimt ^M^tMteJtM kMfaMMlAltfr^b&A.
I
m
I
©
1
I
I
^'S
i,,imMu^t.mtimi.^j,,,....im.ML»:,a,i^mm^ .tA^^**t*a^akM.J.MJ.M..>j.-.ya>;.^^
2!
1
<
s
s
I
O
1
Si
.2
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 APPENDIX B

COMPAEISON OP OBSERVED AM) PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

Following each of the bursts of the Tumbler-Snapper series, an

estimate of the areas lilcely to be affected by fallout or ralnout of
radioactive debris was prepared. These estimates were made after the
receipt of all pertinent meteorological data, but before any radio-
logical data was available. They were based prlmsurily on the indications
of the computed trajectories and modified for the effects of preci-
pitation, diffusion and fallout. Estinates were prepared for successive
24-hour periods, following each burst until it was felt that signi-
ficant activity was no longer present.

Figures B.l-B.ll show comparisons between the estimated areas of

activity and those actually observed. The solid ajid dashed lines
indicate observed activity of 1000 and 100 d/m/ft^/day respectively,
on the gummed paper emd are copied from the figures of Appendix A.
The shading represents the estimated areas of radioactivity. It
should be emphasized that the figures of Appendix B give an incomplete
picture of the reliability of these estimates, since on many days
significant activity was found at the ground although no such area
was predicted, as can be seen from the figures in Appendix A.

No detailed discission of all the individual estimates will be

given, however several general observations can be made. The most
evident error in the estimates arose from the continued deposition
(or redeposltlon) of debris at the ground for long periods eifter it
was thought to have left the country. Although the phenomenon was
p«urticulsurly marked following the tower bursts, it was evident in
all cases. This error surises from several sources. The primary
causes are the Inability to follow the complex air trajectories found
at low levels, i.e. within several thousand feet of the ground, and
the oomplexities of atmospheric diffusion. Additional sources of
error arise from the redeposltlon of debris by the winds and from
the test site Itself acting as a source of radioactive particles for
several days following each burst. This latter effect is particularly
pronounced for tower bursts. It is iniprobable that successful fore-
casts or estimates can ever be made of Isolated patches of debris
which are found many days after a burst, however, considerable
inprovement in the estimates of activity would result from more care~
ful attention to the effects of low-level transport.

Another^ source of error, which is most evident when there is

a vertical wind shear at the time of burst, is Illustrated in Figure
B.4. For the 24-hour period beginning 1830 OCT, 24 April 1952,

135

350 1,^0
debris was predicted to fall on most of the eastern United States.
This estimate was based on the 300- and 200-mb trajectories, at lower
levels the trajectories indicated a weatweu-d movement of debris.
Actually, only two isolated patches of activity were found in the
East, both associated with heavy rain. Aa can be seen from Figure
A.24, rain occurred over a large area, however, only three stations
received significant amounts of radioactive ralnout. It is evident
that the rain was necessary to bring debris down rapidly from high
elevations, although the lack of activity at the other stations in
the rain eerea. is difficult to explain. Where the air mass structure
is vertically unstable, the downward transport of debris from high
levels by turbulent mixing is more effective, as ceui be seen from
the maps for the 24-hour periods beginning 1830 GOT, 7 May and 1
Jxine 1952. However, in each of these cases, precipitation was
also present, so that it was necessary only for debris to have been
brought down to the levels at which the rain was formed.

An interesting example of oiir Incomplete knowledge of air tra-

jectories and flow patterns occurred in connection with the burst
of 15 April 1952, As has been pointed out previously, the original
estimates of the area of deposition of debris were greatly in error.
Instead of moving eastward as predicted, the debris at 16,000 feet
moved around a small cyclonic circulation which developed in South-
western Utah and then westward over California. Figure B.12 shows
the 16,000-foot winds for four successive six-hourly periods begln-
niilg on 0900 GOT, 16 April 1952. The winds are plotted in the
conventional way, each full barb Indicates ten knots, each half-
beurb five knots, of wind speed. The solid wind arrows represent
the stations in the routine meteorological network, the dashed wind
arrows Indicate observations from the special stations established
by the Air Weather Service In connection with the Tumbler-Snapper
;est series. These latter winds were not available when the orlgl-
-lal trajectories and the estimates of areas of contamination were
made. The trajectory originally computed for the 16,000-foot level
la shown by a dotted line, the revised trajectory based on the
additional wind information and a knowledge of where radioactivity
actually was found, is indicated by the solid line. Those portions
of the trajectories from three hours before to three hours after
each nap time are indicated by heavier lines on the appropriate
nape. Although the additional winds clearly serve to explain the
manner in which the air moved, it la doubtful, even with these data,
that the absence of debris at stations to the east of the test site
would have been correctly predicted.

136

360 i/^x
FIGURE B.l OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT
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FIGURE B.2 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.3 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

FIGURE B.4 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT
FIGURE B.5 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT
FIGURE B.6 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.7 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT
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FIGURE B.8 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.9 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.IO OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.ll OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AREAS OF FALLOUT

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FIGURE B.12 ORIGINAL (DOTTED LINE) AND RECOMPUTED (SOLID LDIE) 16,000-FT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE SECOND BURST, AND
THE ASSOCUTED WIND FIELD

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