Green Development

Policy Brief

Message For COP21

Planning for Low-Emission Development

in Jayapura District, Papua Province,
Indonesia

Main Issues
1. Capacity development for sub-national government on planning
for low emission development is necessary. Indonesia
Presidential Regulation no. 61 Year 2011 (National Action Plan to
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions), known as RAN-GRK,
provides the foundation of Indonesia's commitment to reduce
emissions. However, implementation of the plan at sub-national
(e.g district level) needs comprehensive tools and capacity
development framework to plan activities that will reduce
emissions.

2. Emissions are caused by different actors and factors.

Emission from land use change at the district level in
Indonesia were mostly driven by underlying factors in the
form of government regulations that endorse high carbon
stock area conversion to other land use for the reasons of
economic profitability, food self-sufficiency and many
others.
3. Discussions between sub-national stakeholders are
crucial. Even when the mitigation scenario and plan has
already produced, the implementation of the plan require
further support from local, provincial and national
government.
4. The opportunity cost of emission reduction can be really
high in some of developing district in Indonesia. Relying
on full compensation from external sources would be
neither feasible nor sustainable.

Recommendation
1.

LUMENS is a framework accompanied with user-friendly,

parsimonious and publicly available software created by the
World Agroforestry Centre to empowered multistakeholder negotiation processes that are inclusive,
integrated and informed in planning land uses for
sustainable landscapes. LUMENS framework has been
tested in 15 district across Indonesia. Quite recently,
Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning
(BAPPENAS) has endorsed the use of LUMENS to support
revision process of action plan for greenhouse gas emission
reduction in 33 provinces of Indonesia.

2. Quantifying emission and understanding the driving

factors of emission is crucial to ensure a successful
implementation of the mitigation scenario.
Availability of scientific methodology and easy-to-use
tools to assess drivers is important for sub-national
government in planning their emission reduction.
3. Land use planning processes that are inclusive,
informed and integrative are necessary in designing
emission reduction scenario at national and subnational level.
4. Co-investment by both internal and external sources
would be necessary for reducing emission from land
use change.

General Description of Jayapura

Jayapura district has an area of approximately 17,514
2
km , geographically located in the lowlands of the
northern part of the island of Papua. Jayapura lies in
0
0
0
3 45'7 28 " N - 2 19'21.82" S and 139 25'32.4 "0
140 38'38.53" E. Jayapura was the gateway for the
province of Papua. Topography of Jayapura consist of
area with relatively steep slopes between 5% - 30%.
The population in 2013 is 119.383 people divided over
19 sub-districts. Economic growth was fluctuated in the
last five years with an average increase of 10.67%,
which is above the average growth of the provincial of
Papua. Jayapura's economic structure has contructed
around agricultural sector and public services sector
(transport and communication, trade, hotels and
restaurants, finance, leasing and business services, and
general services).

In 2013, the World Agroforestry Centre established a

working group in Jayapura that included stakeholders
in land-use planning: District Planning and
Development Agency (convener), Forestry Office,
researchers and NGOs. The group developed land-use
plans that took into account carbon storage,
biodiversity and watershed functions and delineated
Planning Units (Figure 1) that combined land
allocations, permits issued by local and national
governments, land suitability and land-use plans. The
planning unit map revealed that protected forest area
were designated at 40.1 % (1,045,780 ha) and limited
production forest as 16.2 % (422.471 ha)

Figure 1. Planning unit map of Jayapura Regency, Papua, Indonesia

Land Use/Cover Change in The Past

and Present
Land cover change analysis using
time-series land cover maps of
Jayapura in 1990-2014 (Figure 2),
showed that the area of Jayapura
District are still dominated by intact
forest are which cover 95% of the
total district area (1,660,628 ha) in
1990 to 90.4% (1,578,963 ha) in 2014.
The rate of forest loss in that period is
3402 ha/years. Other dominant land
use type are sago forest which
covered 2.3% (39,932 ha) of Jayapura
in 1990 and decreased into 2%
(34,125 ha) in 2014.
Figure 2. Land cover maps of Jayapura district 1990-2014

Dominant land cover trajectories of

Jayapura during the period of 19902014 are forest degradation. During
1990searly 2000s, forest
degradation caused by logging
activity in production forest area is
one of the most dominant land cover
trajectories (Figure 3), however in the
most recent year, forest degradation
decreased substantially.

Figure 3. Summary of land use/cover change analysis of Jayapura District 1990-2014

Figure 4. Dominant trajectories at each planning unit

Emission from Land Use/Cover Changes

Total emissions attributable to land-use changes in
Jayapura increase from 24.06 Mt CO2-eq during
19902000 to 30.11 Mt CO2-eq in recent years
(Figure 5). The average rate of emission annually is
decreasing from 2.3 t CO2-eq/ha in 1990-2000 to
5.7 t CO2-eq/ha in 2010-2014. Total sequestration
through replanting of low carbon land increased
from 4.4 Mt CO-eq during 1990-2000 to 4.51 Mt
CO2-eq during 2010-2014.

During the entire period of 1990-2014, 23% of

the emission from land use change in Jayapura
were caused by deforestation of natural swamp
forest area into monoculture tree plantation
(Figure 5). Forest conversion to agriculture and
other land use such as cleared land and shrub
contributes 8% and 1% of the total emission
respectively. On the other hand, emission
attributed to forest degradation contributes 50%
of the total emission of Jayapura in 1990-2014.

Figure 6. Source of emission from land use/cover change in Jayapura

district 1990-2014

Figure 5. Emission from land use/cover change in Jayapura district

1990-2014

Analysis on the location where emission location

revealed that in 1990-2000 most of the emission from
land use change occurred in production forest area
(Figure 7). The same pattern can be observed during
2010-2014. In the most recent period, emission
national park and timber plantation area increased
substantially. Emission from logging activity and
conversion to tree crop plantation is currently the
highest source of emission.

Figure 8. Driving factors of conversion to monoculture plantation

Figure 7. Emission from land use/cover change in Jayapura district

1990-2014
divided by planning unit

Calculation of the historical emission and

network of driving factors were used to
project future emission of Jayapura up to
2030. Without mitigation action, future
business-as-usual cumulative emission in
Jayapura is predicted at 381.65 Mt CO2-eq.
Planning units which predicted to contribute
the most significant amount of emission in the
future are production forest and and
protected forest area.

Drivers and Prediction of Future Emission

Conversion of natural forest to monoculture
plantation such as rubber and oilpalm is the
largest source of emission from land use
change in Jayapura. Assessment on the
driving factors on in Jayapura and other
district in Papua showed some
interconnection between underlying and
proximate causes of natural forest
conversion to monoculture plantation
(Figure 7). One of the strongest underlying
influence came from shifting cultivation
practices and demand for land for
agriculture. Other driving significant
underlying driving factors includes: local
migration and demand for food.

Figure 9. Projected emission of Jayapura District and contribution of each

planning unit to future emission from land use/cover changes

Mitigation Scenarios
Mitigation actions of Jayapura were built as a set of
scenarios of land uses and changes based on
historical dynamics taking into account the current
development plan of Jayapura. The process of
developing mitigation scenarios were conducted
through a series of capacity development processes,
focus group discussion and public consultation with
multiple stakeholders. Total of 8 mitigation actions
were proposed, consist of series of action in 8
planning unit. Through public consultation
processes, the initial proposal was agreed by all
stakeholders in Jayapura to be proposed in the
district annual development plan of 2016.

Table 1. Mitigation scenarios of LULCC (general and planning unit specific)

No

Planning unit

Mitigation Action

Conservation area

Protecting primary and secondary forest

in Natural Conservation Area

Plantation
cencession area

Protected forest

Lake riparian area

Protecting primary forest through

implementing high conservation value
forest in plantation concession area.
Preserving forest resources through
protecting primary and secondary forest in
protected forest
Conserving and restoring activities
through replanting of Sagoo from
degraded land in Lake Riparian Area

Natural reserve

Production forest
area

Land slide
vulnerable area

Community
plantation area

Rehabilitating degraded land into low

density secondary forest along Cyclop
Natural Conservation
Rehabilitating degraded land into low
density secondary forest in Production
Forest Area.
Planting trees of degraded land into low
density secondary forest in vulnerable are
of land slides
Implementing agroforestry of degraded
land and other crop in community
plantation area

Predicted Emission Reduction

Against Baseline Condition in 2030
ton CO2-eq
%
225,836
0.261%
9,465,722

10.933%

5,991,157

6.920%

282,455

0.326%

46,817

0.054%

41,118

0.047%

33,530

0.039%

3,874,878

4.476%

The mitigation scenario consist of seven mitigation

action which includes activities carried out in four
planning unit: production forest, tree crop plantation
area, mining area and agriculture area. In total the
scenario was predicted to reduce emission of
Jayapura in 2030 in an amount of 19,2 Mt CO2-eq or
23.5% compared to business-as-usual scenario
(Figure8). Mitigation actions on production forest
area, if implemented correctly, are predicted to
contribute the largest share of emission reduction.

Figure 10. Estimated emission reduction of Jayapura District and contribution of scenario to future emission
reduction from land use/cover changes

COSTS OF INTERVENTIONS, RISKS AND PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS/FAILURES

Figure 11. Opportunity cost curve of emission from land use changes in Jayapura

Using net present value (NPV) as a proxy of land use

profitability, the opportunity costs (that is, the
economic benefit generated from land-use changes
that result in CO2 emissions) are relatively high in
Jayapura District. For the business-as-usual scenario,
85% of emissions from land use changes (Figure 11)
were associated with economic benefits of less than
USD 5. Considering the difference in profitability
between all mitigation actions compiled in the
priority scenario of Jayapura and business-as-usual
scenarios, the opportunity cost of implementing the
mitigation scenario amounted at USD 8.2 per ton of
reduced CO2-eq emissions, which is relatively higher
than today's estimated carbon pricing, meaning that
relying on full compensation from external sources
would be neither feasible nor sustainable. Coinvestment by both internal and external sources
would be necessary for maintaining ecosystem
services.
Focus group discussion and public consultation
processes on the mitigation scenarios also develop
several recommendation:
?
One of the conditions that must be fulfilled in
order to implement the mitigations actions is a
change of practice by the concession owner
within production forest area. Reduced impact
logging are viewed as one of the solutions to
reduce emission in the production forest area.

?
Conservation of sago forest are deemed

necessary not only as a climate change mitigation

action but also to fulfilled food requirement of
people in Jayapura
?
Development of agroforestry system as an option
for degraded land rehabilitation has to be
explored further and deigned as a capacity
development program supported by government
regulations at the district, province and national
level
Acknowledgement
We thank the government of Jayapura District and
especially the Low Emission Development Working
Group of Jayapura for all the hard work in producing
the mitigation strategy and facilitating the process of
focus group discussion and public consultation. We
also thank to DANIDA for providing the funding for
this study.
Citations
Johana F, Ekadinata A, Dewi S and Joni A. 2015.
Planning for low-emissions development in Jayapura
district, Papua province, Indonesia. World
Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA Regional Office. 6 p.

CONTACT :
World Agroforestry Center. Southeast Asia Regional Program
Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang, Bogor 16115 |
Post: PO Box 161 Bogor 16001 | West Java, Indonesia |
E: y.agustina@cgiar.org| T: +62 251 8625 415 ext: 751 | F: +62 251 862 5416 | M: +6281287884472 |
W: www.worldagroforestry.org/regions/southeast_asia