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1. STATISTIC DESCRIPTIV
PIB
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Trim.1 515,500.0 591,220.8 584,319.1 582,126.0 591,478.8 587,157.2 612,441.7 638,887.4 652,239.2 609,474.7 625,342.0 662,946.4 672,944.2 661,656.4 679,007.3
Trim.2 523,900.0 596,703.4 597,606.4 589,737.2 599,218.9 606,765.6 621,278.5 642,434.9 662,236.9 610,248.7 639,016.4 662,752.9 664,752.5 669,461.1 676,040.2
Trim.3
536,120.0 606,701.1 613,215.8 608,055.6 611,603.2 619,472.4 641,273.9 662,494.9 669,719.1 632,050.2 661,075.9 682,167.9 682,941.9 689,650.0 697,906.2
Trim.4 540,960.0 604,185.6 603,605.0 601,670.0 607,217.1 613,151.3 641,209.4 654,496.7 642,370.4 627,083.6 654,690.2 666,494.0 664,817.0 672,621.6 683,393.4
800000
700000
600000
PIB
500000
TRIM 1
400000
TRIM 2
300000
TRIM 3
200000
TRIM 4
100000
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2001
Mean
529120
Standard Error
5787.474982
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Eroare SP
530010
#N/A
2008
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Eroare SP
11574.94996
133979466.7
-2.87682921
-0.28630671
25460
515500
540960
2116480
4
1.09379252
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2002
599702.725
3535.68031
600444.5
#N/A
7071.36062
50004141
-2.7559703
-0.3852736
15480.3
591220.8
606701.1
2398810.9
4
0.58957216
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2003
599686.58
6047.5918
600605.7
#N/A
12095.184
146293466
0.4442144
-0.415053
28896.7
584319.1
613215.8
2398746.3
4
1.0084588
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2004
595397.2
5829.118428
595703.6
#N/A
11658.23686
135914486.6
-2.805009556
-0.102477149
25929.6
582126
608055.6
2381588.8
4
0.979030205
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2005
602379.5
4446.849712
603218
#N/A
8893.699423
79097889.43
-1.7761818
-0.40647695
20124.4
591478.8
611603.2
2409518
4
0.738213985
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2006
606636.625
6992.035607
609958.45
#N/A
13984.07121
195554247.7
1.57324884
-1.21896455
32315.2
587157.2
619472.4
2426546.5
4
1.152590417
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
656641.4 Mean
Standard
5953.827 Error
657238.1 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11907.65 Deviation
Sample
1.42E+08 Variance
-1.5488 Kurtosis
-0.22899 Skewness
27348.7 Range
642370.4 Minimum
669719.1 Maximum
2626566 Sum
4 Count
0.906709
619714.3 Mean
Standard
5780.196 Error
618666.2 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11560.39 Deviation
Sample
1.34E+08 Variance
-5.07774 Kurtosis
0.153488 Skewness
22575.5 Range
609474.7 Minimum
632050.2 Maximum
2478857 Sum
4 Count
0.932719
645031.1 Mean
Standard
8034.152 Error
646853.3 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
16068.3 Deviation
Sample
2.58E+08 Variance
-2.17088 Kurtosis
-0.45294 Skewness
35733.9 Range
625342 Minimum
661075.9 Maximum
2580125 Sum
4 Count
1.245545
668590.3 Mean
Standard
4606.83 Error
664720.2 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
9213.659 Deviation
Sample
84891514 Variance
3.234944 Kurtosis
1.802821 Skewness
19415 Range
662752.9 Minimum
682167.9 Maximum
2674361 Sum
4 Count
0.689036
671363.9 Mean
Standard
4311.998 Error
668880.6 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
8623.996 Deviation
Sample
74373314 Variance
-0.409 Kurtosis
1.025242 Skewness
18189.4 Range
664752.5 Minimum
682941.9 Maximum
2685456 Sum
4 Count
0.642274
673347.3 Mean
Standard
5902.573 Error
671041.4 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11805.15 Deviation
Sample
1.39E+08 Variance
1.868999 Kurtosis
1.08437 Skewness
27993.6 Range
661656.4 Minimum
689650 Maximum
2693389 Sum
4 Count
0.876602
2007
629050.9
7265.825
631244
#N/A
14531.65
2.11E+08
-4.23641
-0.31021
28832.2
612441.7
641273.9
2516204
4
1.155046
684086.8
4847.729
681200.4
#N/A
9695.458
94001904
2.090954
1.45331
21866
676040.2
697906.2
2736347
4
0.708642
Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
YEAR
GDP
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2,116,480.0
2,179,850.0
2,209,290.0
2,220,080.0
2,270,620.0
2,300,860.0
2,393,250.0
2,513,230.0
2,561,740.0
2,460,280.0
2,580,060.0
2,703,120.0
2,754,860.0
2,820,820.0
2,915,650.0
947,098.0
1,022,525.0
1,044,200.0
1,061,545.0
1,051,570.0
1,062,999.0
1,069,695.0
1,076,099.0
1,116,223.0
1,170,508.0
1,219,219.0
1,208,565.0
1,224,500.0
1,255,570.0
1,290,699.0
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
0.943560064
0.890305594
0.881867563
86821.85785
15
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP
ANOVA
GDP
1,500,000.0
df
SS
MS
Predicted GDP
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0
0.0
400,000.0
800,000.0
Significance
F
1.31689E105.5110574
07
FINV
2.483
F
Regression
7.95E+11 7.95346E+11
Residual
13
9.8E+10
Total
14
8.93E+11
7538035000
1,200,000.0
Coefficients
Intercept
Standard
Error
t Stat
T INV
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
261536.5
2.144786681 0.436654386
355115.7
209899.5086
0.802562988
774914.7476
Government
revenue, expenditure 2.386816885 0.232365 10.27185755
and main aggregates
1.31689E-07
1.884823516
2.88881
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
-774915
355115.7
1.884824
2.88881
YEAR
DOMESTIC DEMAND
Final consumption
expenditure of households,
services
Government expenditure
2000
2,116,480.0
683,550.0
677,250.0
2,041,200.0
554,420.0
923,360.0
2001
2,179,850.0
731,230.0
689,550.0
2,060,220.0
575,080.0
1,000,780.0
2002
2,209,290.0
760,570.0
664,670.0
2,036,300.0
584,650.0
1,022,330.0
2003
2,220,080.0
767,080.0
682,930.0
2,063,350.0
603,750.0
1,040,720.0
2004
2,270,620.0
846,440.0
735,670.0
2,084,930.0
618,400.0
1,033,600.0
2005
2,300,860.0
919,070.0
803,080.0
2,108,410.0
634,440.0
1,043,450.0
2006
2,393,250.0
1,053,140.0
923,090.0
2,183,850.0
648,950.0
1,049,290.0
2007
2,513,230.0
1,145,410.0
975,430.0
2,258,520.0
666,310.0
1,056,760.0
2008
2,561,740.0
1,191,190.0
1,035,360.0
2,317,970.0
673,930.0
1,090,460.0
2009
2,460,280.0
1,008,090.0
891,370.0
2,257,480.0
683,210.0
1,146,270.0
2010
2,580,060.0
1,188,590.0
1,048,390.0
2,354,800.0
712,180.0
1,194,130.0
2011
2,703,120.0
1,321,430.0
1,185,780.0
2,474,250.0
733,840.0
1,178,650.0
2012
2,754,860.0
1,381,030.0
1,223,120.0
2,508,490.0
749,410.0
1,191,490.0
2013
2,820,820.0
1,387,190.0
1,219,360.0
2,569,770.0
770,400.0
1,223,130.0
3.1.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999920801
R Square
0.999841608
Adjusted R Square
0.999742613
Standard Error
3662.133646
Observations
14
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Regression
6.7726E+11
1.35452E+11 10099.90465
Residual
107289782.7
13411222.84
Total
13
6.77368E+11
Coefficients
Standard
Error
INTERCEPT
93875.55859
51057.23983
1.838633638 0.103261504
1.046888567
0.052350652
4.07773E-08
-0.974111032
0.075318222
DOMESTIC DEMAND
Final consumption expenditure of households,
services
Government revenue, expenditure and main
aggregates
0.980728738
0.048510821
-0.257072656
0.153245601
19.99762247
12.93327168
20.2167006
1.677520631
0.11767892
0.058396442
2.01517277
0.078645037
t Stat
P-value
1.20915E-06
3.74304E-08
0.13196175
Significance
F
5.67839E-15
FINV
T INV
2.576927085
2,160
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower
95.0%
23862.64748
0.926167748
1.147795164
0.868862585
0.610457645
0.016983517
211613.7647
1.167609386
-0.8004269
1.092594891
0.096312332
0.252341357
23862.64748
0.926167748
1.147795164
0.868862585
0.610457645
0.016983517
Upper
95.0%
211613.7647
1.167609386
-0.8004269
1.092594891
0.096312332
0.252341357
3.2.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99999887
R Square
0.999997741
Adjusted R Square
0.909088239
Standard Error
4145.002879
Observations
14
ANOVA
df
Regression
SS
3
8.36597E+13
MS
2.79E+13 1623101.152
Residual
11
188991537.5 17181049
Total
14
8.36599E+13
Coefficients
Intercept
Standard
Error
#N/A
Significance F
9.88904E-29
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Upper
95%
#N/A
Lower
95.0%
#N/A
Upper
95.0%
#N/A
1.040244248
0.040223322
25.86172
3.34075E-11
0.951713314 1.128775
0.951713
1.128775
-1.053262486
0.049576492
-21.2452
2.79306E-10
-1.16238
-0.94415
1.03946821
0.003819985
272.1132
2.0724E-22
- -0.94415
1.162379609
1.031060479 1.047876
1.03106
1.047876
DOMESTIC DEMAND
T inv = 2,160
4. MODELE NELINIARE
YEAR
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1/x
lnX
lnY
X^2
X^3
2000
2,116,480.0
54.1
0.018484288
3.990834
14.56526489
2,926.81
158,340.421
2001
2,179,850.0
54.3
0.018416206
3.994524
14.59476663
2,948.49
160,103.007
2002
2,209,290.0
53.8
0.018587361
3.985273
14.60818175
2,894.44
155,720.872
2003
2,220,080.0
54.4
0.018382353
3.996364
14.61305379
2,959.36
160,989.184
2004
2,270,620.0
54.3
0.018416206
3.994524
14.63556348
2,948.49
160,103.007
2005
2,300,860.0
54.7
0.018281536
4.001864
14.64879352
2,992.09
163,667.323
2006
2,393,250.0
54.1
0.018484288
3.990834
14.68816283
2,926.81
158,340.421
2007
2,513,230.0
52.3
0.019120459
3.956996
14.73707934
2,735.29
143,055.667
2008
2,561,740.0
52.4
0.019083969
3.958907
14.75619727
2,745.76
143,877.824
2009
2,460,280.0
54.5
0.018348624
3.998201
14.71578572
2,970.25
161,878.625
2010
2,580,060.0
53.2
0.018796992
3.974058
14.76332321
2,830.24
150,568.768
2011
2,703,120.0
52.5
0.019047619
3.960813
14.80991722
2,756.25
144,703.125
2012
2,754,860.0
52.7
0.018975332
3.964615
14.82887718
2,777.29
146,363.183
2013
2,820,820.0
52.3
0.019120459
3.956996
14.85253818
2,735.29
143,055.667
2014
2,915,650.0
51.5
0.019417476
3.941582
14.88560334
2,652.25
136,590.875
4.1.
Modelul Hiperbolic
Regression Statistics
0.855619557
3,500,000.0
R Square
0.732084827
3,000,000.0
Adjusted R Square
0.711475967
Standard Error
135686.1408
Observations
15
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Multiple R
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
35.52282103
`Significance F
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
Regression
6.54001E+11
6.54001E+11
Residual
13
2.39339E+11
18410728806
Total
14
8.9334E+11
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Intercept
-8599095.615
1856972.248
-4.630707662
0.0004707
-1.3E+07
1/x
590777164.5
99121981.71
5.960102435
4.74504E-05
3.77E+08
4.75E-05
0.0
0.018
0.0185
0.019
1/x
Upper
95%
4587351
8.05E+08
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
-1.3E+07
-4587351
3.77E+08
8.05E+08
0.0195
4.2.
Model logaritmic
Regression Statistics
0.854854755
R Square
0.730776651
Adjusted R Square
0.710067163
Standard Error
136017.0014
Observations
15
3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Multiple R
MS
Significance
F
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
ANOVA
df
SS
Regression
6.53E+11
6.53E+11 35.28705
Residual
13
2.41E+11
1.85E+10
Total
14
8.93E+11
Coefficients
Standard
Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept
46590518.15
7427976
6.272303
2.87E-05
30543351
62637685
30543351
62637685
-11092637.17
1867356
-5.94029
4.9E-05
-1.5E+07
-7058459
-1.5E+07
-7058459
0.0
4.9E-05
3.92
3.94
3.96
3.98
lnx
4.02
4.3.
Model exponenial
Regression Statistics
14.95
0.84713654
R Square
0.717640317
Adjusted R Square
0.695920341
Standard Error
0.056038455
Observations
14.9
14.85
14.8
lny
Multiple R
15
14.75
14.7
lny
14.65
df
Regression
SS
1
13
0.040824
Total
14
0.144582
Coefficients
19.15101141
-0.083088332
MS
Residual
Intercept
Predicted
14.6
ANOVA
Standard
Error
14.55
Significance
F
14.5
51.0
6.73E-05
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
0.772126 24.80297
2.48E-12
17.48294 20.81909
17.48294
20.81909
0.014455
6.73E-05
-0.11432
-0.11432
-0.05186
-5.74809
53.0
54.0
55.0
0.00314
t Stat
52.0
-0.05186
lny
4.4.
Regression Statistics
0.86257956
R Square
0.744043497
Adjusted R Square
0.70138408
Standard Error
138038.7355
Observations
15
3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Multiple R
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,500,000.0
Predicted GDP(mil.
euro)(Y)
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
0.0
Significance F
51.0
Regression
6.64684E+11
3.32E+11
Residual
12
2.28656E+11
1.91E+10
Total
14
8.9334E+11
17.44148
0.000281188
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
126148457.5
4438628.314
x^2
39733.50075
-169697174
Upper
95%
4.22E+08
Lower
95.0%
-1.7E+08
Upper
95.0%
4.22E+08
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
0.929045
0.371177
5102764.644
-0.86985
0.401448
-15556597.37
6679341
-1.6E+07
6679341
47925.78205
0.829063
0.423254
-64687.80793
144154.8
-64687.8
144154.8
3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Coefficients
Standard
Error
135782949.2
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0
Predicted GDP(mil.
euro)(Y)
500,000.0
0.0
2,600.00
2,700.00
2,800.00
2,900.00
3,000.00
3,100.00
x^2
4.5.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.87734291
0.769730583
0.706929832
136750.9336
15
3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
SS
MS
Significance
F
Regression
6.87632E+11
2.29E+11
12.25671
0.000787
Residual
Total
11
14
2.05709E+11
8.9334E+11
1.87E+10
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept
7554866883
6935291381
-1.08934
0.299295
-2.3E+10
7.71E+09
-2.3E+10
7.71E+09
430111140
392319551.8
1.096329
0.296356
-4.3E+08
1.29E+09
-4.3E+08
1.29E+09
7396497.477
-1.10234
0.293848
-2.4E+07
8126129
-2.4E+07
8126129
46475.31709
1.107734
0.291611
-50809.2
153773.8
-50809.2
153773.8
x^2
x^3
8153452.086
51482.30557
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
df
3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
2,600.00
2,700.00
2,800.00
2,900.00
3,000.00
3,100.00
x^2
ANOVA
4,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,000,000.0
0.0
130000 140000 150000 160000 170000
x^3
Column1
Model
Hiperbolic
Model
Logaritmic
Model
exponential
Model polinomial de
ord 2
Model polinomial de
ord 3
Multiple
R
0.855619557
0.854854755
0.84713654
0.86257956
0.87734291
R Square
0.732084827
0.730776651
0.717640317
0.744043497
0.769730583
35.52282103
35.28704517
33.0405673
17.44148295
12.25670999
T stat (a)
-4.630707662
6.272303196
24.80296967
0.929044908
-1.089336622
T stat (b)
5.960102435
-5.94028999
-5.748092492
-0.869847744
1.096328587
0.829063169
-1.102339602
T stat
(b2)
T stat
(b3)
1.107734359