Harvard University

Department of Government

GOV 1359:
THE ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE
Spring 2016

Professor:

Carlos E. Daz Rosillo

cdiaz@fas.harvard.edu

Meeting Time:

Mondays, 7 9 p.m.
+ a weekly section to be arranged

Location:

Northwest B103

Office:

Dunster House E303

Office Hours:

Wednesdays 3 5 p.m. and by appointment

Course Description
This course examines the role of presidential campaigns and elections in American politics. It
studies the origins and evolution of the presidential selection process and explores how modern
campaigns inform, influence, and mobilize voters. Topics to be studied include the role of
political parties and candidates, campaign strategies and tactics, political advertising and media
coverage, campaign finance and voter mobilization, and the transition from campaigning to
governing. The 2016 campaign will be used as a laboratory in which to explore political science
research on presidential campaigns and elections.
The main discipline that we will use to explore these and other topics will be political science.
However, we will also take advantage of interdisciplinary approaches to understand the ways in
which presidential campaigns influence American political behavior and politics for instance,
we will incorporate the insights of historians, economists, journalists, and campaign insiders, and
compare and contrast them to those of political scientists. To make sense of the complexities of
presidential campaigns and elections in the United States, we will use a variety of pedagogical
tools (including guest lectures, discussions, debates, videos, and on-line sources, among others)
that will allow us to link more effectively the theoretical insights we will learn in this class with
the current race for the White House.
Course Objectives
The course will equip you with the analytic tools to understand the role of presidential
campaigns and elections in American politics; to think critically and constructively about the
choices afforded to citizens in our democracy; and to value the importance of active and
responsible participation in public life.
The 2016 presidential race is in full swing and you will have a front-row seat as developments in
the campaign unfold. After taking this class, you will be able to analyze and evaluate the
conduct of presidential campaigns and elections in the United States; exhibit a thorough
understanding of our electoral system; and critically engage the literature on presidential
campaigns and elections and how it relates to the current electoral process.
Course Requirements
Course requirements include: attendance and participation in lecture and section discussions (20%);
a midterm examination (15%); a campaign advertising group project (20%); a campaign memo
assignment (15%); and a final examination (30%). You may elect to write a research paper on a
topic approved by the professor in lieu of the final examination. Details about all these
requirements will be provided in class.
In addition to lectures, we will have a few other evening class meetings to watch and discuss the
presidential primary debates and the group projects. There will be no make-ups exams. Late
assignments will be penalized at the rate of 1/3 of a letter grade per day late. Failure to complete
any one of the course requirements will result in a failing grade in the course.

You will be expected to keep up-to-date with the assigned weekly readings and to participate in
class actively and thoughtfully. To understand how the theories we will be studying in class
apply to the current presidential campaign, you will need to monitor campaign developments by
reading a national newspaper of record on a daily basis.
Students should be aware that in this course collaboration of any sort on any work submitted for
formal evaluation is not permitted, except for the campaign advertising group project (details
about the type of student collaboration permitted in this project will be provided in class). That
means that you may not discuss your paper assignments, exams, or any other assignments with
anyone else outside the teaching staff for the course. All work should be entirely your own and
must use appropriate citation practices to acknowledge the use of books, articles, websites,
videos, lectures, discussions, etc., that you have consulted to complete your assignments.
All students are expected to hand in work on time and in a professional manner. Any student that
presents work that is not of his/her own authorship will automatically fail the course and will be
subject to the Colleges rules regarding academic dishonesty, as stated in The Harvard College
Handbook for Students:
It is expected that all homework assignments, projects papers and any other work submitted
for academic credit will be the students own. Students should always take great care to distinguish
their own ideas and knowledge from information derived from sources. The term sources includes
not only primary and secondary material published in print or online, but also information and
opinions gained directly from other people. Quotations must be placed properly within quotation
marks and must be cited fully. In addition, all paraphrased material must be acknowledged
completely. Whenever ideas or facts are derived from a students reading and research or from a
students own writings, the sources must be indicated. Students are also expected to be familiar
with the Harvard Guide to Using Sources, which is available at usingsources.fas.harvard.edu.
Course Materials
Stephen C. Craig and David B. Hill, eds. The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice, 2nd ed.
Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011.
Stephen J. Wayne. The Road to the White House 2016, 10th ed. Boston: Cengage Learning, 2016.
John Sides and Lynn Vavreck. The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013.
Elizabeth McKenna and Hahrie Han. Groundbreakers: How Obama's 2.2 Million Volunteers
Transformed Campaigning in America. New York: Oxford University Press, 2014.
+ additional readings available online or on reserve.

The Lineup
Getting Started
Mon., Jan. 25
Introduction and Overview: Understanding Presidential Campaigns and Elections
in the U.S.
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 244-274.
US Presidential Election Forecasting, PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 47, no. 2,
April 2014, pp. 284-347.

Mon., Feb. 1
The Origins and Evolution of the American Presidential Selection Process
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 2-24.
William Mayer and Jonathan Bernstein, eds., The Making of the Presidential Candidates
2012, pp. 159-194.
Neil Irwin, Why a Presidential Campaign is the Ultimate Start-Up, The New York
Times, June 4, 2015.

The Nomination
Mon., Feb. 8
Seeking the Nomination: The Primaries and Caucuses
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 96-137.
John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential
Election, pp. 32-96.
Additional readings TBA.

Mon., Feb. 15 - Presidents Day! (No Class)

Mon., Feb. 22
Winning the Nomination: The Choice of a Running Mate and the National
Convention
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 142-168.
Mark Hiller and Douglas Kriner, Institutional Change and the Dynamics of Vice
Presidential Selection, Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 38, no. 3, September 2008,
pp. 401-419.
Stacy Ulbig, The Appeal of Second Bananas: The Impact of Vice Presidential
Candidates on Presidential Vote Choice, Yesterday and Today, American Politics
Research, March 2010, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 330-350.

The General Election

Mon., Feb. 29
I Approve this Message: Advertising and Modern Presidential Campaigns
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 225-236.
Stephen Craig and David Hill, eds., The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice, pp.
117-141.
John Geer, The News Media and the Rise of Negativity in Presidential Campaigns, PS:
Political Science and Politics, vol. 45, no. 3, July 2012, pp. 422-427.
Emmet Buell, Jr. and Lee Sigelman, Attack Politics: Negativity in Presidential Campaigns
Since 1960, pp. 1-27, 245-265.

Mon., Mar. 7
MIDTERM EXAM

Mon. Mar. 14
SPRING BREAK

Mon., Mar. 21
Dealing with the Media and Facing the Opponent: The Role of the Media and the
Impact of Presidential Debates
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 20116, pp. 208-225, 233-236.
Stephen Craig and David Hill, eds., The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice,
pp. 144-192.
How the Presidential Candidates Use the Web and Social Media, Pew Research
Centers Project for Excellence in Journalism, August 15, 2012.
Alan Schroeder, Presidential Debates: Fifty Years of High-Risk TV, 2nd ed., pp. 1-131.

Mon., Mar. 28
The War Room: Campaign Organization, Strategy, and Finance
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 28-52, 174-203.
Stephen Craig and David Hill, eds., The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice, pp. 26114, 243-292.
D. Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Shields, The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in
Presidential Campaigns, pp. 107-182.
Dennis Johnson, No Place For Amateurs: How Political Consultants are Reshaping
American Democracy, 2nd ed., pp. 1-32.
Watch: The War Room.

Mon., Apr. 4
Campaigning by the Numbers: Polling and Modern Presidential Campaigns
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 7th ed., pp.
141-176.
Todd Rogers and Adan Acevedo, Voters vote, non-voters dont. Why is this so hard for
pollsters?, The Washington Post, January 22, 2016.
Additional readings TBA
GROUP PROJECT DUE (at the beginning of lecture)

Mon., Apr. 11
The Ground Game: Voter Mobilization
Stephen Craig and David Hill, eds., The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice, pp.
215-241.
Elizabeth McKenna and Hahrie Han, Groundbreakers: How Obama's 2.2 Million
Volunteers Transformed Campaigning in America, pp. 3-201.

The Election is Over, Now What?

Mon., Apr. 18
The Determinants of the Vote and the American Voter:
Who Votes in Presidential Elections in the U.S.? (and How Did They Vote in 2012?)
Stephen Wayne, The Road to the White House 2016, pp. 57-88.
John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential
Election, pp. 97-242.

Wed., Apr. 20
Student Presentations of Group Projects

Mon., Apr. 25
Summary and Conclusions: How Much Do Campaigns Matter?
Stephen Craig and David Hill, eds., The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice,
pp. 1-23, 295-305.
James Campbell, The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National
Vote, 2nd ed., pp. 3-78, 189-203.
MEMO ASSIGNMENT DUE (at the beginning of lecture)

Thu., May 5
FINAL EXAM