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14 May 2008
Meanwhile in Selangor, the new Menteri Besar Tan SPAN, also known as the National Water Services
Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim is forging ahead with his Commission, was formed to drive the Malaysian
“election promise” of no charges for the first 20 water services industry forum. It was empowered via
cubic metres of water per month for domestic the SPAN Act 2006. SPAN comprises of a chairman,
households (inclusive high-rise dwellers) in the state a CEO and 8 other commission members, which are
with individual water meters beginning 1st June. appointed by the ministry to serve for 2 years. Tan
Sri Dato’ Ir Hj Zaini bin Omar is the current
THE WHO’S WHO - KEY WATER chairman. The commission typically meets at least 6
SERVICE INDUSTRY PLAYERS times a year to discuss issues such as managing and
regulating service providers, quality of services,
MINISTRY OF ENERGY, WATER & water rates and consumer complaints.
COMMUNICATIONS
KUMPULAN DARUL EHSAN (KDEB)/
The ministry's role is to administer and manage the KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR
nation's energy, communications (infrastructure), (KPS)/ KUMPULAN HARTANAH
postal services and water functions. The role of the SELANGOR (KHSB)
ministry has shifted from being a service provider to
a policy formulator and service regulator for the KDEB is the Selangor state government’s investment
Energy, Water and Communications sectors. The arm with interests in infrastructure/utilities, property,
ministry's main thrust is therefore to facilitate and hospitality/recreation and ICT. KPS undertakes
regulate the growth of industries in these sectors to KDEB’s venture in the infrastructure/utilities,
ensure the availability of high quality, efficient and property and hospitality/recreation sectors. KDEB
safe services at a reasonable price to consumers has grown to be a specialist in the utilisation and
throughout the country. The regulatory function of management of water resources via KPS. It has
the ministry is undertaken through its regulatory strategic stakes (via its 60.1% stake in KPS) in
bodies, namely, the Energy Commission and the KHSB (56.5%), SPLASH (Syarikat Pengeluar Air
Communications and Multimedia Commission. The Selangor Holdings Bhd) (30%) for the Sungai
newly appointed minister is Datuk Shaziman Abu Selangor Phase 3 Water Supply Scheme, ABASS
Mansor, who replaced the retiring Datuk Seri Dr Lim (Konsortium ABASS SB) (55%) for the Sungai
Keng Yaik. Semenyih Water Supply Scheme, Jaks Resources
(10.2%) and Taliworks Corporation (19.7%).
All information, views and advice are given in good faith but without legal responsibility. Mercury Securities Sdn. Bhd. or companies or
individuals connected with it may have used research material before publication and may have positions in or may be materially interested in
any stocks in the markets mentioned. Strictly for internal circulation only.
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd (Page 2/8) 14 May 2008
Gamuda is mainly known as the third largest AIRB is primarily engaged in providing water
construction player by market capitalization. The services in the state of Johor. Via its subsidiary SWC
company is also involved in engineering, and associate ESB, AIRB supplies approximately
water/highway projects and property development. 70% of Johor’s water needs.
Gamuda is involved in water services by virtue of its
30% in SPLASH. Given that water services are not AIRB will be discussing with representatives from
its core business, it was speculated in the media that the federal government and Johor state on a range of
Gamuda may sell its stake in water concessionaire issues which include outstanding arrears owed by the
SPLASH to KDEB, but nothing has materialized at state and the proposed migration to the new regime
this juncture. pursuant to the enforcement of the National Water
Services Commission Act 2006 and the expected
Gamuda’s managing director Dato' Lin Yun Ling had enforcement of the Water Services Industry Act 2006
caused a furore back in February when he disposed in January 2008.
of a large chunk of his existing Gamuda shares held.
However, Dato’ Lin has since reiterated his Given that RU and AIRB are both offering water
commitment to continue in his current role as services in the state of Johor, there are views that
managing director. they could have some sort of collaboration,
partnership or even a merger in the future. Of course,
RANHILL UTILITIES (RU BHD) this would only be possible if the 2 management
boards could work together – which is unclear at this
Ranhill Utilities (RU) is Ranhill Bhd’s water services point.
arm, with Ranhill holding a 70% stake. Both Ranhill
and Ranhill Utilities are helmed by Tan Sri Hamdan Venture/Venue Description
Mohamed. It was speculated in the media during Southern Water Operate 14 WTP in Johor
December 2007 that Tan Sri Hamdan may take RU Corp SB (SWC) totaling 450.7MLD in
private, but this has not occurred. Previously, RU had capacity
provided full turnkey services to construct and Equiventures SB Operate 2 WTP totaling
commission the Semangar Water Treatment Plant, (ESB) 636MLD at
which was completed in June 2004. The 160 MLD Sg Layang & Sg Johor
plant provides water supply to the people of Johor
Bahru and Pontian. SALCON (SALCON)
All information, views and advice are given in good faith but without legal responsibility. Mercury Securities Sdn. Bhd. or companies or
individuals connected with it may have used research material before publication and may have positions in or may be materially interested in
any stocks in the markets mentioned. Strictly for internal circulation only.
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd (Page 4/8) 14 May 2008
The company is looking mostly at its China projects GADANG HOLDINGS (GADANG)
in order to sustain its revenue growth.
Gadang’s core businesses are in construction,
Venture/Venue Description engineering and property development. Nevertheless,
Negeri Sembilan NRW project it has other businesses in manufacturing, trading and
Sabah Sewerage system project water concessions. The company is based at Sri
Binh An, Vietnam WTP concession Damansara in Kuala Lumpur. Currently, only a small
Sri Lanka Letter of acceptance portion of its revenues are derived from its water
for a WTP concessions.
Bekasi, West Jawa Water supply concession
Indonesia proposal submitted Venture/Venue Description
Changle, China Construction of a new Nanning China MOU for waste water
100MLD WTP treatment plant
Rokan Hilir, Riau MOU for intake works, Via Asian Utilities Interests in 2 WTP
Indonesia WTP, balancing reservoir Pte Ltd, Indonesia concessions
and raw and treated water
trunk mains
Haining City, China MOU for proposal for Yan
Cang WTP Phase III works
Nan An, China Develop water intake
project
Hong Kong, India Exploring
Singapore
“PAAB to take over water assets” in line with the overall market sentiment on that day
and perhaps some concern of delays or complications
Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB) was formed by the with its “Northern” KTM double tracking project
Ministry of Finance to take over all water assets from (Padang Besar-Ipoh stretch).
the operators and states (including Labuan but
excluding Sabah and Sarawak). Then the operators Reviewing technical analysis indicators such as
and states would have to lease back from PAAB for trading prices and volumes, MACD, Stochastics and
continued usage of the water assets, such as treatment RSI – only RU Bhd is currently showing a strong
plants, reservoirs and distribution networks. The buy momentum. The other water service stocks are
burden of funding for capital expenditure and mostly showing a neutral bias.
protecting consumer interests is thus shifted to the
government. SPAN would be regulating both PAAB “Which company has good fundamentals?”
and the water operators.
Glancing at the fundamentals and financials of water
Under the 9MP, RM8 billion has been earmarked for service stocks, we would end up with Puncak and
specific water projects in Malaysia. This includes RU Bhd as the preferred stocks. We have not chosen
allocation for inter-state water transfers and water Gamuda as most of its earnings is from the
projects in Sabah and Sarawak. The government construction segment. This we have concluded based
allocation for these projects comes to about RM4 on factors such as market capitalization, earnings and
billion. PAAB is currently in discussions with the P/E ratio. As we are not forecasting the future
Energy, Water and Communications Ministry and the earnings of these water service companies, we would
Economic Planning Unit (EPU) to obtain the refrain from providing target prices for them.
remaining RM4 billion to undertake uncompleted
projects under the 8MP. PAAB was expected to SECTOR OUTLOOK
bridge the funding gap of about RM8 billion,
according to PAAB’s CEO Suhaimi Kamaralzaman. With Malaysia’s population increasing by 1.9-2.0%
PAAB would build the treatment plant in Selangor per year and GDP growth of 5.0-6.0% expected by
and the government would fund the tunnel and dam the government, the need and demand for water
for the Pahang-Selangor inter-state water transfer. would increase steadily. Furthermore, there would be
a strain on water resources in urban areas as a result
WHICH WATER STOCKS TO WATCH? of unsustainable household or domestic water
consumption patterns. In the 1970s, Malaysia
“Eyes on Selangor and Johor water players” consumed less than 200 liters per day (LPD) per
capita. In the 1980s, water consumption increased to
Looking at the government’s push for water industry about 250 LPD to an estimate of about 300LPD
consolidation, it would be difficult to fathom who currently. A recent study indicates that average water
would end up the dominant player in Selangor and consumption per person in urban centers is about 500
Johor. Nevertheless, it would look easier for KDEB LPD. The United Nations international standard for
to manage Selangor’s water assets solely via KPS. water use is 200 LPD. The demand for water in the
KDEB could either directly buy Puncak’s water Klang Valley rises by around 6% a year.
assets or it could end up buying a major stake in
Puncak. Nevertheless, now that KDEB is no longer “Steady growth in water demand”
controlled by the Barisan Nasional (BN) state
hierarchy, this may also complicate any negotiations. We hope that with the WSIA legislation in place, and
It was also reported in the media that Puncak may with SPAN and PAAB working together, the
seek to raise its water tariffs or extend its concession consolidation of water assets and water operators
period in lieu of it. Meanwhile in Johor, RU Bhd and would proceed smoothly. This is to ensure that the
Aliran Insan could also collaborate. Alternatively, objectives and needs of the government, water
RU or Aliran may sell its water assets to the other operators and consumers are all met.
party.
All information, views and advice are given in good faith but without legal responsibility. Mercury Securities Sdn. Bhd. or companies or
individuals connected with it may have used research material before publication and may have positions in or may be materially interested in
any stocks in the markets mentioned. Strictly for internal circulation only.
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd (Page 6/8) 14 May 2008
Appendices
Stock financials
Bursa S. Name Unit KPS KHSB JAKS TALIWRK PUNCAK GAMUDA RUBHD AIRB SALCON PBA GKENT GADANG
Bloomberg TK KUPS KHSB JAK CI PNH GAM RANU AIRB SALC PBAH GKEN GADG
Bursa S. Code 5843 6246 4723 8524 6807 5398 5050 8516 8567 5041 3204 9261
Mkt cap RMm 931.2 317.3 337.5 657.5 1422.6 6371.4 954.2 196.7 329.6 331.2 48.4 94.4
Mkt price RM 1.96 0.71 0.77 1.75 3.46 3.18 3.24 0.89 0.74 1.00 0.50 0.80
52wk Hi RM 3.98 1.32 1.51 2.55 5.40 5.80 3.26 1.75 1.49 1.45 0.75 1.36
52wk Lo RM 1.00 0.33 0.51 1.60 2.44 2.80 2.02 0.63 0.55 0.99 0.44 0.65
Consensus TP RM 1.07 N/A 1.00 2.31 4.33 4.11 3.45 N/A 1.44 1.10 N/A 1.24
Cons. TP upside % (45.4) N/A 29.9 32.0 25.1 29.2 6.5 N/A 94.6 10.6 N/A 55.0
1 yr avg daily vol lots 61152 50563 101965 3159 6963 90007 2842 1462 22455 1735 1734 5478
EPS (ann) RM 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.24 0.20 0.82 0.16 0.03 0.13 0.04 0.08
P/E x 26.8 15.7 77.0 19.2 14.6 15.9 4.0 5.5 24.7 7.8 12.7 9.8
BV/share (last FY) RM 1.95 1.00 1.03 0.88 3.02 1.50 3.55 1.32 0.53 1.65 0.77 1.40
P/BV x 1.01 0.71 0.75 1.99 1.15 2.12 0.91 0.67 1.40 0.60 0.64 0.57
Div/share (last FY) RM 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.10 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
Div yield % 1.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 2.5
Revenue (last FY) RMm 425.6 226.0 282.2 191.0 1389.8 1516.4 638.4 61.7 134.6 181.5 89.7 226.0
NPAT (last FY) RMm 32.0 21.0 12.4 33.7 97.6 185.4 206.2 31.4 (7.8) 42.6 8.8 13.8
NPAT margin % 7.5 9.3 4.4 17.6 7.0 12.2 32.3 50.9 N/A 23.5 9.8 6.1
Water rev (ann)(est) RMm 134.1 0.0 172.0 134.4 1333.1 123.0 181.5 62.8 134.6 181.5 89.7 4.8
Water/total rev (est) % 31.5 0.0 60.9 70.4 95.9 8.1 28.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.1
Source: Bloomberg/Bursa
Sector Update
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd (Page 7/8)14 May 2008
All information, views and advice are given in good faith but without legal responsibility. Mercury Securities Sdn. Bhd. or companies or
individuals connected with it may have used research material before publication and may have positions in or may be materially interested in
any stocks in the markets mentioned. Strictly for internal circulation only.
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd (Page 8/8) 14 May 2008
Sector Update