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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

1 February - 5 February 2016

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our first Security Watch (SW) series focuses on how the so-called Islamic State uses water as a weapon; how
the global terror threat may develop in 2016; how Russia now sees color revolutions as military threats; what the global
suicide attack rates were in 2015; and why we need to think in terms of four rather than three levels of war. Then, in our
second SW series, we look at the types of states that might soon define the Middle East; Polands growing
authoritarianism; the political and security issues that are already dominating 2016; the crafting of a new EU global
strategy; and Latin Americas current economic insecurities.

Water as Weapon: IS on the Euphrates and Tigris

1 February 2016

According to Tobias von Losso, the so-called Islamic State (IS) has been exploiting its control of water resources to further
its political and military aims, both in Syria and Iraq. The tactic does raise a conundrum, however. Yes, IS wants to inflict
pain on its enemies, but it also needs to maintain needed services in the areas it controls. More

The New State Order in the Middle East

1 February 2016

Given that the Westphalian system in the Middle East is wobbly at best, what types of states if any might we see arise
in the future? Today, Carmit Valensi considers three possibilities an order marked by further disintegration and chaos;
the rise of federated states; or the creation of ethnic-religious statelets. More

The Global Terror Threat in 2016: A Forecast

2 February 2016

How will the Wests conflict with violent jihadists unfold in 2016? Dan Benjamin and Steven Simon see a paradox at work.
The more territory the Islamic State loses in Syria and Iraq, the more anxious Westerners will become about the groups
actives elsewhere. Our mental image of terrorism, in short, will be hard to distinguish from its reality. More

Is There a Way Out of the Polish Pickle?

2 February 2016

Poland is making headlines again, but not as the wunderkind of Central Europe. The EU is looking for ways to deal with a
new and recalcitrant Polish government thats turning its back on democratic values and reacts hysterically to any
criticisms lobbed in its direction. In Adam azowskis view, heres how Brussels needs to respond.
More

Russias Militarization of Colour Revolutions

3 February 2016

According to Nicolas Bouchet, the Russian government believes that foreign-sponsored anti-regime protests represent
nothing less than non-military warfare by the West. Hmm, how convenient. By conflating opposition protests with warfare,
Russia can justify at least to itself military interventions in its near-abroad. More

2016: Into the Storm

3 February 2016

What defines everyones security problems? As Paul Rogers sees it, its a mixture of three things 1) socio-economic
conditions, 2) environmental constraints, and 3) a control paradigm that stresses suppressing violent opposition instead
of addressing underlying troubles. If you want proof of these factors at work, Rogers continues, just look at recent history.
More

Suicide Attacks in 2015

4 February 2016

Crafting the EU Global Strategy: Building Blocks for a Stronger Europe

4 February 2016

What should EU leaders do to ensure their pending Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy is a success?
According to our partners at FIIA, they need to 1) reconcile Brussels values and interests in a more realistic way; 2)
ensure the policy maintains its focus on security; and 3) perform a global reflex to make Brussels a comprehensive
power. More

The Fourth Level of War

5 February 2016

Since the 19th century, Western militaries have divided conventional warfare into three hierarchical parts strategic,
operational and tactical. That needs to change, argues Michael Matheny. We now need to codify a fourth level of war a
theater-strategic one and here are the reasons why. More

LAC's Insecure Economies

5 February 2016

Things aren't going well in large parts of Latin America and the Caribbean, observes Jos Luengo-Cabrera. The region's
economies have been decelerating for the past five years, double digit inflation is the norm, and blatant political corruption
stalks the land. Hmm, is it time to "rebalance" economic policies or is that even possible? More

// Blog
Getting the Most out of Your Wargame: Practical Advice for Decision-Makers
1 February 2016

Wargames foster innovation and help improve decision-making, but only if theyre designed well and used appropriately.
Well, Elizabeth Bartels is here to help. Here are eight general guidelines she believes people need to remember if they
hope to participate in wargames that will provide useful insights into their problems. More

Did Sisi Save Egypt?

2 February 2016

Five years ago, Egypt's protest movement brought down a sclerotic regime, tried to create a progressive society, and was
then defeated. This is the narrative of events that's known throughout the world, but is it accurate? Today, Nathan Brown
and Yasser El-Shimy share an alternative perspective of what happened during and after 2011. More

A Review of Gangster Warlords: Drug Dollars, Killing Fields, and The New Politics of Latin America
3 February 2016

Ioan Grillo's new book looks at the spread of crime militias in Brazil, Jamaica, the Northern Triangle, and Michoacn,
Mexico. The militias are headed by "Gangster Warlords" who combine the attributes of a gangster running rackets with a
militia leader controlling selective components of their own turf or fiefdom. More

The Putinverstehers Misconceived Charge of Russophobia: How Western Apology for the Kremlins
Current Behavior Contradicts Russian National Interests
4 February 2016

The above title says it all. There's no excuse, Andreas Umland argues, for downplaying what Vladimir Putin is an
unapologetic practitioner of power politics whose high risk policies are harming Russia's interests abroad. More

Posthuman Security: Reflections From an Open-ended Conversation

5 February 2016

Audra Mitchell has no doubts. International security isn't just about human welfare. "Diverse beings" other organisms,
machines, elemental forces, diverse materials, and hybrids of all of the above are also responsible for conditions of
(in)security. But what does that really mean? Here's what Mitchell thinks. More

// Video

The Mexican Military and Domestic Security

In today's video, Stratfor's Latin America Analyst Reggie Thompson focuses on Mexico's reliance on its military to
maintain domestic security, to include the origins of the practice and the problems it poses.
More

Assessing the Iran Deal

In today's video, Ali Ansari and Gary Samore discuss the next steps in the nuclear deal with Iran, including the open
questions that surround them. For example, will the expected political reforms in the country be too slow and indecisive for
the deal's own good? And what about the negative impact US backing could have on the political fates of Iranian
moderates at home? More

Inside Syria: Life Amidst Revolution and War

In today's video, Mina Al-Oraibi and Robin Yassin-Kassab draw on firsthand testimonies from opposition fighters, exiles
and human rights activists to describe the complicated realities of life on the ground in Syria. More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// A Fractious Rebellion: Inside the SPLM-IO More
// The Evolving Domestic Drivers of Indian Foreign Policy
More
// One Year of the Islamic State in the Sinai Peninsula More

Videos More
// A Conversation with Robert Gates More
/Is
/ Defending Human Rights the New Colonialism?More
/The
/
International Human Rights Movement More

Audio / Podcasts More

// Otherworldly Politics: The International Relations of Star Trek, Game of Thrones & Battlestar Galactica
More
// The Trial of Laurent Gbagbo
More
// Is Chinas Belt and Road a Strategy?More

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