EMEA pt1

Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Czech Republic
Figure 40: 3MADTV, $mn
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
Government balance (% of GDP)
Czech Republic
80
60
40
20
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Figure 42: MSCI sector weights
EM
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
100
Figure 43: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

2015
110
2016
2017
105
95
90
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
85
May-15
Telecoms
Apr-15
Utilities
Mar-15
48%
100
Feb-15
Financials
Jan-15
10%
42%
2015
2016
2017
3.9
2.6
2.6
17,330 18,020 18,663
10.5
10.5
10.6
0.5
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.2
0.7
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Figure 39: Economic outlook
Figure 41: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)
Czech Republic 3M ADTV ($mn)

MSCI Czech Republic 3M ADTV ($mn)
120
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Figure 37: Key data

Figure 38: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)
Local Currency
CZK
MSCI Czech Republic, $
MSCI EM, $
S&P / Moody's Rating
AA-/A1
130
Weight in MSCI EM (%)
0.2%
120
MSCI Index
MXCZ
110
2016 P/E
12.5
2016 EPS Growth
-9.2%
100
Trailing P/B
1.3
90
Beta to em
0.6
80
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
19.4
70
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
6.5
60
No. of Companies
3
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
18.2
50
Local Index
PX
40
MktCap ($bn)
38.7
No. of Companies
13
3M ADTV ($mn)
23.9
Note: EPS growth excludes -ve to +ve earnings changes
29
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 44: Index and stock data
Ticker
MXCZ
KOMB CK
CEZ CK
TELEC CK
RBAG CP
VIG CP
STOCK CP
TABAK CP
PEGAS CP
UNIPE CP
CETV CP
FOREG CP
PLG CP
NWR CP
Name
MSCI Czech Republic
Komercni Banka
Cez As
O2 Czech Republi
Erste Group Bank
Vienna Insurance
Stock Spirits Gr
Philip Morris Cr
Pegas Nonwovens
Unipetrol
Central Euro M-A
Fortuna Entertai
Pivovary Lobkowi
New World R-A Sh
Sector
Financials
Utilities
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Materials
MktCap
($mn)
19,402
7,916
9,038
3,245
12,410
3,163
376
1,364
260
1,157
331
176
98
16
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
6,472
3,164
2,663
646
9,399
949
330
305
207
154
154
57
20
8
3MADTV
($mn)
18.2
8.5
8.4
2.5
2.4
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
$ Performance
12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
1M
3M
12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
-1.1
-7.9
-17.6
12.5
1.3
8.9
52
0.21
2.7
1.1
2.6
14.8
1.9
12.4
20
48.5
-4.9
-15.9
-29.2
10.2
0.9
8.2
24
41.6
3.8
11.9 279.3
16.8
4.5
29.8
8
9.9
-8.7
-1.1
33.7
10.4
1.0
9.7
27
-10.9
-21.8
-42.7
7.6
0.6
7.6
14
-9.0
-35.0
-38.7
11.9
1.0
8.8
6
2.3
5.4
12.9
14.4
5.0
29.6
5
-4.7
-8.8
4.8
10.0
1.5
9.1
5
-1.4
5.8
13.4
6.7
0.8
12.4
2
-10.0
18.3
-6.5
na
3.1
-18.4
6
4.0
15.4
-32.8
16.1
5.4
22.9
5
0.4
0.9
13.7
18.7
1.9
8.9
3
-30.1
-61.2
-84.2
na
na
na
3
-
30
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 45: Population, '000
Figure 46: Export destinations, total $172bn

0-19
8,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
0.9
160
7,000
0.8
140
6,000
0.7
120
0.6
5,000
100
0.5
4,000
80
0.4
60
3,000
0.3
2,000
0.2
40
0.1
20
1,000
CPI (average % YoY)

-5
CZK vs $
45
Figure 49: Bank lending growth vs GDP
Hungary
Italy
Austria
France
UK
CZK vs EUR
Czech REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
40
70
35
80
90
100
15
110
Stronger
120
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
10
2018E
2017E
2016E
20
2014
2015E
2013
25
2012
-1
2011
2010
30
2009
-2
2008
2007
-3
2006
2005
-4
2004
Figure 50: Real GDP % change, YoY
Change in lending as % of GDP
12
Poland
Figure 48: Czech Republic - koruna
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS
Slovakia
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Figure 47: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP
Germany
EU
Euro Area
Real GDP (% YoY)
10
6.4
6.9
2500
3.9
3000
5.5
4.9
2.7
2.3 2.0
2.6 2.6 2.2
2.0
2000
1500
1000
-0.9 -0.5
-2
-500
-1000
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-4.8
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-6
2006
-6
2005
-4
2004
-4
2004
-2
2012
31
3000
Trade balance, EUR mn
Figure 55: Trade balance
Trade balance, $mn
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
20
-500
-10
-1000
-15
Jul-09
May-15
Oct-14
Mar-14
Industrial volumes, %YoY
Aug-13
Jan-13
Jun-12
Nov-11
Apr-11
Sep-10
Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)
Feb-10
Figure 53: Manufacturing PMI
Apr-08
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
-5%
-10%
Nov-08
-1
Dec-08
Sep-07
Oct-07
May-08
20%
Jul-06
25%
Feb-07
Mar-07
Dec-05
Jan-06
Key Policy Rate, %
Aug-06
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
CPI, % YoY
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Figure 51: CPI (%YoY) and central bank policy rates (%)
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 52: Credit growth

30%
Credit growth, % YoY
15%
10%
5%
0%
Figure 54: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

20
PPI, % YoY
15
10
-10
-5
-15
-20
-25
Figure 56: Retail sales (%YoY)
Retail Sales, % YoY
15
10
-5
32
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Egypt
2015
4.2
n/a
88.4
11.4
-3.7
-11.7
2016
4.3
n/a
90.2
10.4
-4.5
-9.4
2017
4.5
n/a
92.0
10.4
-4.5
-7.4
Jan-16
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn)
Egypt
16
EM
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16

2015
180
2016
2017
160
11%
140
80
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
60
Apr-15
89%
100
Mar-15
Telecoms
120
Feb-15
Financials
Jan-15
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Figure 57: Key data

Local Currency
EGP
MSCI Egypt, $
MSCI EM, $
B-/B3
130
0.2%
120
MSCI Index
MXEG
110
2016 P/E
6.9
2016 EPS Growth
50.7%
100
Trailing P/B
1.5
90
Beta to em
0.3
80
7.2
70
5.4
60
No. of Companies
3
17.4
50
Local Index
EGX100
40
MktCap ($bn)
25.2
No. of Companies
100
3M ADTV ($mn)
53.2
33
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
MXEG
COMI EC
TMGH EC
GTHE EC
EFID EC
ORAS EC
JUFO EC
HRHO EC
EAST EC
MNHD EC
AUTO EC
SWDY EC
CCAP EC
PHDC EC
PIOH EC
ETEL EC
CIEB EC
EKHO EC
OCDI EC
ORWE EC
SKPC EC
OTMT EC
ESRS EC
HELI EC
SVCE EC
ARCC EC
UNIT EC
ACGC EC
AMOC EC
AIND EC
AMER EC
COSG EC
BTFH EC
ELKA EC
EGTS EC
MOIL EC
EFIC EC
MCQE EC
UEGC EC
IRON EC
ELEC EC
EGCH EC
Name
MSCI Egypt
Commercial Intl
T M G Holding
Global Telecom H
Edita Food Indus
Orascom Construc
Juhayna Food Ind
Efg-Hermes
Eastern Tobacco
Medinet Nasr
Gb Auto
Elswedy Electri
Citadel Capital
Palm Hills
Pioneers Holding
Telecom Egypt
Credit Agricole
Egypt Kuwait Hol
Six Of October
Oriental Weavers
Sidi Kerir Petro
Orascom Telecom
Ezz Steel
Heliopolis Hous
South Valley Cem
Arabian Cement C
United Hous&Dev
Arab Cotton Ginn
Alexandria Miner
Arabia Investmen
Amer Group Holdi
Cairo Oils And S
Beltone Financia
El Kahera Housin
Egyptian Resorts
Maridive & Oil S
Egyptian Fin&Ind
Misr Cement Qena
Elsaeed Contract
Egyptian Iron&St
Egyptian Electri
Egypt Chemical
Sector
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Cons. Staples
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Telecoms
Materials
Financials
Materials
Materials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Materials
Materials
Industrials
Materials
Industrials
Materials
MktCap
($mn)
7,197
4,609
1,376
1,226
1,330
877
869
565
976
794
373
963
557
610
523
1,330
754
478
323
386
697
389
511
619
243
377
125
94
264
100
233
99
79
132
97
106
56
300
55
395
49
166
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
5,449
4,148
688
613
1,310
877
426
412
383
379
350
344
327
299
276
266
224
224
210
205
193
188
181
172
110
100
89
82
81
79
77
68
64
64
52
51
50
50
37
36
34
31
3MADTV
($mn)
17.4
10.0
3.4
2.2
0.4
1.1
0.7
3.9
0.5
1.0
0.8
0.5
2.7
3.6
1.2
1.0
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.3
4.6
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.8
0.2
1.0
2.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.3
$ Performance
1M
3M
-13.5
-21.2
-41.3
6.8
1.5
14.3
45
0.17
-13.1
-23.7
-30.9
6.1
2.3
29.8
22
76.1
-18.1
-21.2
-56.0
8.1
0.4
5.0
13
12.6
-11.2
0.3
-61.9
13.7
5.6
15.0
10
11.3
-11.8
-12.2
30.2
22.1
10.1
38.1
9
-11.6
-31.0
-47.4
na
1.0
na
2
-7.3
-5.1
-33.5
14.1
2.8
18.0
13
-16.9
-18.1
-54.9
6.3
0.4
6.1
9
-13.0
-23.6
-32.7
5.3
1.5
21.9
6
-5.8
5.5
-13.9
14.0
7.1
39.1
7
-23.9
-9.1
-52.5
7.5
0.9
10.8
10
-5.3
-19.1
-35.5
6.5
1.2
18.3
12
-16.9
-26.7
-60.1
na
0.6
na
1
-10.2
5.8
-42.2
5.7
0.8
12.3
10
0.1
-10.7
-45.7
na
0.9
na
1
-2.3
-9.3
-51.6
5.4
0.4
7.0
14
-6.2
-13.6
5.0
6.1
1.9
28.0
10
-3.9
-15.5
-31.9
7.7
0.8
7.5
3
-18.6
-15.5
-53.0
5.7
0.8
12.0
11
-14.4
-37.4
-53.4
5.2
0.1
13.9
8
-6.2
-19.8
-33.7
6.1
2.3
31.0
11
-14.7
-28.4
-56.8
4.6
1.0
10.9
4
-18.2
-24.0
-53.1
26.2
1.1
2.8
11
-5.7
3.2
-38.7
22.7
8.4
36.0
4
-4.2
-7.0
-46.7
23.1
0.6
-3.9
5
-21.5
-38.4
-53.3
6.0
2.4
25.6
9
-8.8
-15.3
-30.0
na
4.2
na
0
-5.8
-6.9
-33.3
na
0.5
na
0
-3.5
-18.3
-58.6
3.8
1.0
na
2
-9.2
-17.8
-52.6
na
na
na
0
-9.1
-24.1
-53.8
na
1.3
na
2
-18.4
42.4 105.7
na
na
na
0
-2.6
1.4
-48.6
na
1.8
na
0
-0.9
-1.9
-2.5
na
1.2
na
0
-13.3
-25.5
-45.5
4.0
0.8
18.0
4
-13.3
-21.2
-50.9
na
0.4
0.5
3
-7.2
-7.0
-36.4
na
0.5
na
3
-4.8
-5.3
-6.0
7.2
2.9
22.3
4
-11.6
-15.4
-46.7
na
0.6
na
0
52.9
58.6
-17.4
na
na
na
0
-8.8
-15.0
-40.6
na
0.7
na
1
7.5
0.6
-44.7
na
0.6
na
1
-
34
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
90,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
80,000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.3
70,000
0.25
60,000
0.2
50,000
0.15
40,000

CPI (average % YoY)
-5
EGP vs $
16
-4
11
14
-3
10
-1
10
UAE
Libya
UK
USA
Egypt REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
80
9
8
100
120
6
5
140
4
3
160
Stronger
2018E
2017E
2016E
2014
2015E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
EGP vs EUR
180
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
-2
12
2004
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Figure 68: Egypt - pound
12
Turkey
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
India
Saudi Arabia
10,000
Euro Area
0.05
EU
20,000
Italy
0.1
30,000
18
0.35
Real GDP (% YoY)
8
6.8
10
7.1 7.2
10%
6
8
4.1
4.7
4.5
5.1
4.5 4.7
4.2 4.3
4
3
1.8
2
2
-10%
2.2 2.1 2.2
-15%
1
-20%
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
35
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
CPI, % YoY
CB deposit rate, % (RHS)
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
CB lending rate, % (RHS)

11
25%
10.5
20%
10
9.5
9
8.5
15%
10%
5%
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sep-14
Jul-13
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Aug-10
PPI, % YoY (RHS)
40
30
20
10
-10
-2
-20
-4
-30
-6
-40
-8
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
10%
Jun-09
55
53
51
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
Apr-08
Dec-05
Nov-08
-5%
Sep-07
Jul-06
0%
Feb-07
7.5
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Figure 76: Tourist arrivals, 000s
C/A balance (% GDP)
Goods and services balance (% GDP)
Tourist Arrivals, 000s
1600
1400
5%
1200
0%
1000
-5%
800
600
-10%
400
-15%
200
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Nov-14
Jun-15
Sep-13
Apr-14
Jul-12
Feb-13
Dec-11
Oct-10
May-11
Jan-09
Aug-09
Mar-10
Jun-08
Nov-07
Sep-06
Apr-07
Dec-04
Jul-05
Feb-06
-20%
36
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Greece
2015
2016
2017
-2.3
-1.3
2.7
17,657 17,703 18,607
10.9
10.9
10.8
1.5
0.6
7.0
0.7
1.5
1.2
-4.2
-3.6
-2.4
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Greece 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Greece 3M ADTV ($mn)
350
Greece
35
EM
EYDAP GA
INLOT GA
FOYRK GA
SAR GA
TENERGY G
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
2017
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
2016
Jun-15
May-15
52%
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Telecoms
Materials
Utilities
2015
Apr-15
15%
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
Mar-15
6% 3%
24%
VIO GA
PLAKR GA
OLTH GA
PPA GA
FRIGO GA
MIG GA
ELBA GA
OTOEL GA
INTRK GA
Feb-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
50
Jan-15
400
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Figure 77: Key data

Local Currency
EUR
MSCI Greece, $
MSCI EM, $
B-/Caa3
140
0.4%
MSCI Index
MXGR
120
2016 P/E
12.0
100
2016 EPS Growth
77.1%
Trailing P/B
0.0
80
Beta to em
1.1
60
20.4
13.6
40
No. of Companies
10
20
100.5
Local Index
ASE
0
MktCap ($bn)
38.3
No. of Companies
60
3M ADTV ($mn)
111.3
37
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
Name
MXGR
MSCI Greece
ALPHA GA
Alpha Bank Ae
HTO GA
Hellenic Telecom
OPAP GA
Opap Sa
EUROB GA Eurobank Ergasia
ETE GA
Natl Bank Greece
TPEIR GA
Piraeus Bank
BELA GA
Jumbo Sa
TITK GA
Titan Cement Co
FFGRP GA
Ff Group
PPC GA
Public Power Cor
EEE GA
Coca-Cola Hbc Ag
BOC GA
Bank Of Cyprus
MOH GA
Motor Oil-Hellas
GRIV GA
Grivalia Propert
ELPE GA
Hellenic Petro
EXAE GA
Hellenic Exchang
MYTIL GA
Mytilineos Hldgs
AEGN GA
Aegean Airlines
METTK GA
Metka Sa
LAMDA GA
Lamda Developmen
ELLAKTOR GA Ellaktor Sa
EYDAP GA
Eydap Water
INLOT GA
Intralot S.A.
FOYRK GA
Fourlis Sa
SAR GA
Sarantis
TENERGY GA Terna Energy Sa
GEKTERNA GAGek Terna Holdin
VIO GA
Viohalco Sa
PLAKR GA
Plastika Kritis
OLTH GA
Thessaloniki Por
PPA GA
Piraeus Port Aut
FRIGO GA
Frigoglass Saic
MIG GA
Marfin Investmen
ELBA GA
Elval Holdings S
OTOEL GA
Autohellas Sa
INTRK GA
Intracom Sa-Reg
IASO GA
Iaso S.A.
EUPIC GA
European Relianc
KORRES GA Korres Natural P
PLAT GA
Thrace Plastics
EYAPS GA
Thessaloniki Wat
KYRM GA
Fhl I Kiriakidis
KRI GA
Kri-Kri Milk
MLS GA
Mls Multimedia
IATR GA
Athens Medical
SOLK GA
Corinth Pipe
OLYMP GA
Technical Olympi
KLEM GA
Kleemann Hellas
ANEMOS GA Eltech Anemos S.
Sector
Financials
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Utilities
Cons. Staples
Financials
Energy
Financials
Energy
Financials
Materials
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Industrials
Utilities
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Utilities
Industrials
Materials
Materials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Materials
Industrials
Industrials
Healthcare
Financials
Cons. Staples
Materials
Utilities
Materials
Cons. Staples
IT
Healthcare
Materials
Industrials
Industrials
Utilities
MktCap FF Mkt Cap

($mn)
($mn)
20,380 13,617
3,053 2,739
4,108 2,091
2,280 1,607
1,842 1,545
2,486 1,453
1,773 1,297
1,440 1,083
1,479
854
1,045
524
841
424
7,335 3,644
1,354 1,027
1,143
677
796
303
1,258
296
311
293
410
279
558
226
397
198
322
155
222
155
516
148
201
123
147
109
266
108
249
92
150
88
341
75
165
70
257
66
359
63
88
49
73
42
135
36
134
35
49
33
32
29
41
28
51
26
65
25
111
23
62
23
61
22
47
20
66
17
114
16
31
12
36
12
59
11
3MADTV
($mn)
100.5
35.9
6.4
6.8
15.4
18.5
12.2
2.5
0.9
1.4
2.8
1.1
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-20.4
-44.4
-58.6#N/A N/A
0.0
2.4
120
0.43
-27.3
-72.1
-89.2
8.2
0.1
3.5
11
20.1
-13.2
-13.6
-2.5
12.0
1.7
12.5
18
15.0
-5.2
-22.2
-12.7
11.3
1.9
16.2
14
11.7
-25.2
-76.0
-93.5
12.7
0.0
1.0
11
11.5
-24.2
-97.7
-98.3
na
0.0
3.0
9
10.9
-36.0
-98.0
-99.7
26.0
0.0
1.6
13
9.7
-0.2
11.1
4.7
11.8
1.6
12.5
11
7.9
-4.2
-19.7
-17.9
17.3
0.8
5.5
13
6.2
-14.4
-24.5
-47.9
5.8
0.7
10.7
11
3.8
-10.4
-38.2
-33.0
6.6
0.1
2.3
9
3.1
-6.1
-13.7
22.4
20.8
2.3
11.1
18
-4.9
-18.6
-23.3
7.8
0.4
na
1
-5.4
-17.0
53.7
5.9
1.8
27.1
8
-1.5
-13.0
-13.1
14.8
0.8
5.7
3
-4.2
-30.8
-3.7
5.5
0.7
13.7
9
-16.3
-20.1
-16.1
18.5
1.6
8.3
9
-10.2
-35.3
-41.0
4.9
0.4
8.3
8
2.3
-2.1
-4.0
6.8
2.0
34.0
8
-0.6
-19.9
-26.5
6.8
0.7
8.5
8
-9.0
-20.5
27.6
na
0.8
na
0
-18.0
-38.5
-37.6
na
0.2
2.9
5
-8.3
-23.0
-23.3
10.0
0.5
5.3
2
6.3
-24.5
-15.8
na
1.2
-13.0
2
-5.9
-8.1
-10.9
36.2
0.9
3.7
6
-5.6
-6.2
-4.4
11.2
1.5
12.0
4
-12.7
-28.3
-4.8
10.4
0.7
6.2
4
-8.4
-32.1
-29.4
4.7
na
10.2
3
-13.2
-42.9
-43.9
na
na
na
0
-6.9
-4.8
-1.8
na
0.9
na
0
-4.2
-10.4
25.5
na
1.9
na
0
-0.5
-19.3
23.4
30.8
1.8
na
2
-14.2
-29.4
-2.8
na
na
6.4
3
-0.2
-19.7
-59.2
na
0.1
na
0
-11.9
-38.2
-8.3
na
0.2
na
0
-5.0
-8.3
8.6
na
0.6
na
1
16.7
-3.3
-10.1
na
0.2
na
0
-15.4
-10.6
-24.9
na
0.3
na
0
-6.8
-10.2
-1.0
na
0.5
na
0
-8.6
-4.6
0.9
na
2.5
na
0
-1.4
-1.7
32.9
na
0.5
na
0
-1.3
-14.0
7.6
6.2
0.7
8.2
1
7.7
-0.5
23.8
na
1.2
na
0
-6.0
-1.9
2.2
na
1.3
na
0
-5.6
-3.2
-17.6
na
1.9
na
0
13.0
7.0
-13.6
na
0.9
na
0
-15.5
-21.9
1.4 273.0
0.7
na
1
-1.4
-21.0
-9.8
na
0.1
na
0
-2.7
-18.8
-14.8
na
0.4
na
0
0.2
-11.3
-2.0
7.0
0.5
na
3
-
38
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
65+
% of total exports
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015

CPI (average % YoY)

-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
Greece REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Stronger

8
5.8
5.0
3.5
10
0.9
-2
2.7 3.1
0.8
-0.4
-2.3
-4
-4.4
-6
-10
-3.9
-5.4
-6.6
-8
-10
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-8.9
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-15
2012
-5
-1.3
2017E
15
2016E
Real GDP (% YoY)
2015E
2004
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Weaker
2014

20
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-2
2005
2004
-1
EUR vs $
2013
Egypt
Figure 88: Greece - euro
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Saudi Arabia
EU
1,000
UK
2,000
Cyprus
3,000
Bulgaria
4,000
Germany
5,000
Turkey
6,000
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Euro Area
7,000
Italy
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-3500
-4000
-4500
-5000
2018E
8,000
20-64
39
Apr-10
Trade balance, $mn

20
Retail Sales, % YoY
-10
-5
-15
-20
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Feb-07
Jul-06
Dec-05
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
10
May-15
15
Jul-13
PPI, % YoY
Feb-14
20
Mar-14
Aug-13
Jan-13
Jun-12
Nov-11
Apr-11
Sep-10
30
Jul-09
35
Feb-10
40
Dec-08
45
Oct-07
50
May-08
Mar-07
Jan-06
ECB refinancing rate
Aug-06
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Apr-15
Nov-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Aug-13
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Feb-07
Jul-06
Dec-05
CPI, % YoY
Mar-13
Oct-12
May-12
Dec-11
Jul-11
55
Feb-11
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Sep-10
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-3500
-4000
-4500
-5000
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
-5%
0%
-10%
-15%
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Retail Sales, % YoY)
15
10
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
40
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Hungary

160

2015
2016
2017
3.0
2.5
2.3
12,021 12,606 13,306
9.9
9.8
9.8
2.0
2.4
3.0
5.0
4.3
3.7
-2.7
-2.3
-2.2
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Figure 97: Key data

Local Currency
HUF
MSCI Hungary, $
MSCI EM, $
BB+/Ba1
130
0.3%
120
MSCI Index
MXHU
110
2016 P/E
11.1
100
2016 EPS Growth
52.5%
90
Trailing P/B
1.2
80
Beta to em
1.1
14.4
70
9.1
60
No. of Companies
3
50
31.0
40
Local Index
BUX
30
MktCap ($bn)
17.4
No. of Companies
14
3M ADTV ($mn)
32.6
Hungary 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Hungary 3M ADTV ($mn)
140
Hungary
16
EM
14
120
12
100
80
10
60
40
6
20
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
2017
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
2016
Jun-15
Energy
30%
May-15
Healthcare
Apr-15
51%
Mar-15
Financials
Feb-15
19%
2015
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Jan-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
41
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
Name
MSCI Hungary
Otp Bank Plc
RICHT HB
Richter Gedeon N
MOL HB
Mol
MTELEKOM HB Magyar Telekom
GSPARK HB
Graphisoft Park
FHB HB
Fhb Mortgage Ban
ANY HB
Any Sec Printing
PANNONIA HB Cig Pannonia Lif
ZWACK HB
Zwack Unicum Rt
ELMU HB
Elmu Nyrt
EMASZ HB
Emasz
PANNERGY HB Pannergy Plc
RABA HB
Raba Plc
APPENINN HB Appenninn Holdin
Sector
MXHU
OTP HB
Financials
Healthcare
Energy
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Utilities
Utilities
Utilities
Industrials
Financials
MktCap
($mn)
14,405
5,882
3,661
5,074
1,451
88
177
53
35
126
532
241
25
62
27
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
9,125
4,642
2,721
1,761
591
44
43
31
30
23
22
22
17
16
12
3MADTV
($mn)
31.0
17.9
9.0
4.2
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-0.6
7.1
41.8
11.0
1.2
10.8
42
0.29
0.0
4.9
56.2
9.9
1.4
12.0
20
51.0
2.3
14.8
43.0
18.1
1.7
8.5
9
29.8
-2.3
7.5
20.4
8.7
0.8
9.1
13
19.2
-2.8
0.9
5.9
12.8
na
6.7
12
3.2
1.6
22.7
na
3.6
na
0
11.1
10.2
6.3
na
0.8
na
0
3.2
7.3
14.5
na
2.6
na
1
8.4
10.1
-9.7
na
na
na
1
1.1
4.6
15.6
na
6.9
na
0
1.4
5.9
65.9
na
1.0
na
0
-2.1
-1.8
49.9
na
1.0
na
0
-5.4
-11.7
7.1
na
0.8
na
0
-1.3
-4.2
10.1
na
1.1
na
0
-1.7
1.8
34.0
na
na
na
0
-
42
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
EU
2,000
1,000
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Czech Republic
3,000
Poland
4,000
France
5,000
Euro Area
6,000
Slovakia
% of total exports
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Italy
65+
Romania
7,000
20-64
Austria
0-19
Germany
Source: IMF DOTS

Figure 108: Hungary - forint

CPI (average % YoY)
-10
-8
-6
6
5
-4
-2
HUF vs EUR
Hungary REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
70
300
80
250
90
200
100
150
110
Stronger
100
120
10
350
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-1
2004
HUF vs $
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Real GDP (% YoY)
4.8
4.3 4.0
3.6
5
2
0
1.8
0.5 0.9
1500
3.0
1.5
0.8
2.5 2.3 2.1
1000
0
-2
-5
-1.5
-4
-10
-500
-6
-1000
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2009
-6.6
-8
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-15
43
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
CPI, % YoY
14

Key policy rate (%)
40%
12
30%
10
8
20%
10%
4
2
0%
-10%
-2
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sep-14
Jul-13
IMF DOTS
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Aug-10
Source: Bloomberg

Industrial volumes, %YoY (SWDA)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Jun-15
Jun-14
Dec-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Jun-11
Dec-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-08
Dec-07
-1000
Feb-07
-500
Jul-06
Dec-05
500
Jun-07
Retail Sales, % YoY
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Aug-10
Trade balance, $mn
1000
Dec-06
Sep-14
1500
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-10
Jul-13
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Aug-10
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Feb-07
Jul-06
30
Jun-09
35
Apr-08
40
Nov-08
45
Sep-07
50
Feb-07
55
Jul-06
60
Dec-05
PPI, % YoY (RHS)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Dec-05
65
Source: IMF IFS
Feb-14
Jun-09
Apr-08
Nov-08
Sep-07
Jul-06
Feb-07
-20%
Dec-05
-4
Source: Bloomberg
44
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Poland

400

2015
2016
2017
3.5
3.5
3.6
12,662 13,390 14,217
38.0
38.0
38.0
0.1
1.6
2.2
-0.5
-1.0
-1.8
-2.8
-2.5
-2.6
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Figure 117: Key data

Local Currency
PLN
MSCI Poland, $
MSCI EM, $
BBB+/A2
150
1.3%
MSCI Index
MXPL
130
2016 P/E
11.2
2016 EPS Growth
-2.4%
110
Trailing P/B
1.0
90
Beta to em
1.0
76.8
70
40.7
No. of Companies
23
50
157.4
Local Index
WIG
30
MktCap ($bn)
229.5
No. of Companies
384
3M ADTV ($mn)
190.6
Poland 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Poland 3M ADTV ($mn)
350
Poland
16
EM
14
300
12
250
200
10
150
100
6
50
80
Jan-16
Telecoms
85
Dec-15
Cons.
Staples
90
Nov-15
19%
95
Oct-15
Cons. Disc.
Sep-15
12%
100
Aug-15
Materials
Jul-15
47%
105
Jun-15
9%
2017
110
May-15
Utilities
Apr-15
8%
2016
115
Mar-15
Energy
3%2%
2015
120
Feb-15
Financials
Jan-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Source for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
45
berg, MSCI
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
MXPL
PKO PW
PKN PW
PZU PW
PEO PW
PGE PW
PGN PW
BZW PW
KGH PW
LPP PW
ATT PW
MBK PW
EUR PW
OPL PW
CPS PW
MIL PW
ALR PW
TPE PW
ENG PW
CCC PW
ENA PW
LTS PW
BHW PW
SNS PW
SAN PW
UCG PW
CEZ PW
MOL PW
IIA PW
TNX PW
KRK PW
ACP PW
BWO PW
ING PW
IPF PW
KTY PW
EAT PW
KRU PW
GTC PW
KER PW
CIE PW
BDX PW
CAR PW
ECH PW
NET PW
CDR PW
PKP PW
GPW PW
ORB PW
MBW PW
AMC PW
SNK PW
PGS PW
1AT PW
GRJ PW
FTE PW
Name
MSCI Poland
Pkobp
Pkn Orlen
Pzu
Pekao
Pge Sa
Pgnig
Bzwbk
Kghm
Lpp
Grupa Azoty Sa
Mbank Sa
Eurocash
Orange Polska Sa
Cyfrplsat
Millennium
Alior Bank Sa
Tauronpe
Energa Sa
Ccc Sa
Enea
Lotos
Handlowy
Synthos
Banco Santander
Unicredit Spa
Cez As
Mol
Immofinanz Ag
Talanx Ag
Krka
Assecopol
Buwog Ag
Ingbsk
International Pe
Kety
Amrest Holdings
Kruk Sa
Gtc
Kernel
Ciech
Budimex
Intercars
Echo
Netia
Cd Projekt Red
Pkp Cargo Sa
Warsaw Stock Exc
Orbis
Marie Brizard Wi
Amica
Sanok Rubber Co
Pegas Nonwovens
Atal Sa
Grajewo
Forte
Sector
Financials
Energy
Financials
Financials
Utilities
Energy
Financials
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Utilities
Utilities
Cons. Disc.
Utilities
Energy
Financials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Utilities
Energy
Financials
Financials
Healthcare
IT
Financials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Materials
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Telecoms
IT
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Cons. Disc.
MktCap
($mn)
76,831
7,487
6,610
6,851
8,789
6,196
7,340
6,258
2,847
2,393
2,507
3,200
1,861
2,052
3,308
1,530
1,067
1,172
1,371
1,118
1,242
1,199
2,354
1,252
61,037
23,219
9,053
5,074
2,061
7,455
2,233
1,153
2,000
3,550
761
653
957
699
780
864
1,038
1,194
808
732
473
538
540
359
709
554
314
315
271
199
382
283
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
40,671
5,190
4,898
4,417
4,368
2,761
2,161
2,169
1,919
1,689
1,092
1,128
1,065
1,000
962
763
741
692
689
672
615
598
581
499
60,296
19,724
2,670
2,434
1,844
1,563
1,475
1,040
1,020
888
725
653
613
606
585
525
503
488
477
394
364
363
362
359
336
334
313
264
215
199
191
191
3MADTV
($mn)
157.4
18.4
19.9
18.5
16.4
8.9
7.3
4.5
18.0
3.7
1.2
2.3
6.9
5.4
3.1
1.5
3.4
3.2
4.4
3.2
1.5
1.9
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.6
1.0
1.6
0.9
2.2
1.2
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.3
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
$ Performance
1M
3M
-11.9
-18.4
-30.8
11.2
1.0
7.6
402
1.30
-16.0
-19.5
-34.9
10.9
1.0
9.1
26
12.7
-12.2
-4.4
4.4
7.4
1.2
14.6
22
12.0
-10.7
-17.2
-41.6
11.2
2.3
20.6
16
10.8
-11.4
-12.5
-31.4
16.4
1.6
9.1
27
10.7
-3.6
-6.8
-36.0
8.4
0.6
6.7
18
6.8
-8.2
-29.5
8.6
12.2
1.0
6.8
16
5.4
-14.8
-19.5
-31.9
13.2
1.3
10.1
22
5.3
-15.1
-38.8
-49.5
12.3
0.4
3.1
22
4.8
-13.8
-32.3
-35.2
18.6
5.6
22.3
20
4.1
-1.5
10.4
34.8
16.2
1.6
9.1
11
2.7
-8.5
-18.8
-40.0
12.2
1.1
8.9
18
2.7
0.9
3.7
37.8
26.5
7.5
22.7
20
2.7
-10.2
-13.1
-34.9
79.3
0.7
0.9
20
2.5
-7.2
-16.9
-18.5
11.1
1.3
11.5
16
2.4
-14.1
-21.2
-37.2
11.2
1.0
9.0
15
1.9
-14.2
-29.2
-34.9
11.2
1.3
10.9
18
1.8
-11.5
-13.0
-50.1
6.1
0.3
4.3
14
1.7
0.8
-22.6
-41.2
8.7
0.6
7.4
13
1.7
-15.8
-34.2
-29.0
17.1
4.5
22.4
16
1.6
-4.5
-14.0
-35.9
7.6
0.4
4.4
10
1.5
-8.5
-9.6
1.5
8.3
0.6
6.8
15
1.5
-7.1
-11.0
-37.6
16.1
1.4
9.0
16
1.4
-8.7
-0.4
-19.6
12.5
2.3
16.8
11
1.2
-19.7
-27.3
-39.4
8.2
0.6
7.4
38
-31.1
-40.3
-36.3
7.4
0.4
5.5
36
-4.8
-15.2
-28.7
10.2
0.9
8.2
24
-1.8
5.7
15.2
8.7
0.8
9.1
13
-17.6
-25.3
-19.5
17.3
0.5
2.2
10
0.0
5.3
2.3
8.6
0.8
9.2
19
-4.9
-7.6
-6.6
11.3
1.4
11.5
9
-5.5
-3.2
-5.3
12.5
0.9
6.4
7
-7.8
-5.1
2.3
14.9
1.1
7.8
9
-13.6
-13.2
-25.9
14.7
1.4
9.5
13
-27.6
-47.1
-47.1
6.8
1.6
22.3
8
-15.4
-3.7
-7.8
13.2
2.1
15.1
10
-7.5
-2.0
48.5
23.7
3.8
13.9
7
-11.8
-13.8
29.7
13.4
3.8
24.8
8
-8.2
-2.1
35.6
8.2
1.2
8.9
8
-12.6
-19.4
29.2
4.3
1.0
18.1
8
-12.7
4.0
48.5
9.7
3.4
27.4
11
-7.4
-14.2
14.3
17.9
9.3
43.7
11
-9.4
-6.5
-0.9
14.3
2.7
15.8
9
-4.6
0.3
0.1
17.7
0.9
na
4
-2.0
-3.2
-15.2
44.0
0.9
1.8
9
-3.5
-17.0
31.6
19.3
4.9
na
8
-30.2
-29.0
-49.7
8.7
0.6
6.4
10
-5.9
-17.1
-31.8
11.2
2.1
17.9
8
-2.2
2.5
36.6
16.8
1.7
na
2
-0.1
-0.5
83.2
35.6
2.8
8.3
3
-13.1
-5.5
40.6
12.5
2.2
17.6
5
-17.5
-20.4
-18.5
12.3
3.4
na
4
-1.9
-5.2
8.3
10.4
1.5
9.1
5
-7.7
-8.7
-12.4
8.9
na
13.6
1
-12.4
-10.5
-23.7
9.6
1.4
na
4
-14.3
-18.5
-14.0
12.1
2.5
18.9
7
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI
46
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
30,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
Sweden
Russia
Netherlands
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Italy
EU
5,000
France
10,000
Czech Republic
15,000
UK
20,000
Germany
25,000
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Euro Area
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 128: Poland - zloty
CPI (average % YoY)

-7
PLN vs $
5.5
-2
Source: IMF
14
Real GDP (% YoY)
80
3.5
90
3.0
100
2.5
2.0
Source: Bruegel, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

7.2
6.2
5.1
4.8
3.9
3.5
-2000
3.7
3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6
2.6
120
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
1.5
110
Stronger
10
60
70
12
Poland REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
5.0
2018E
2017E
-1
2016E
-1
2014
-2
2015E
2013
-3
2012
2011
4.0
2010
-4
2009
2008
4.5
2007
-5
2006
2005
-6
2004
PLN vs EUR
-4000
-6000
1.8 1.7
-8000
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-12000
2007
2006
2005
-10000
2004
Source: IMF
47
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
CPI, % YoY

Key policy rate (%)
50%
40%
5
4
30%
20%
2
1
10%
0%
-1
Sep-15
Apr-15
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg
Nov-14
Jan-14
Aug-13
Oct-12
Mar-13
Dec-11
May-12
Jul-11
Feb-11
Apr-10
Sep-10
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sep-14
Jul-13
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Aug-10
Jun-09
Apr-08
Nov-08
Sep-07
Jul-06
Feb-07
-10%
Dec-05
-2
Source: IMF IFS
Source: IMF

58
PPI, % YoY (RHS)
20
56
15
54
10
52
50
48
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-15
Oct-14
May-15
Mar-14
Aug-13
Jan-13
Jun-12
Apr-11
Nov-11
Sep-10
Feb-10
Jul-09
Jan-06
Dec-08
-20
May-08
40
Oct-07
-15
Mar-07
42
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
44
-10
Aug-06
-5
46
Source: Bloomberg
nce Capital
Source: IMF
4000
Trade balance, $mn
Retail Sales, % YoY
30
2000
25
20
-2000
15
-4000
10
-6000
Source: Bloomberg
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Feb-07
Jul-06
Jun-15
Jun-14
Dec-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Jun-11
Dec-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-08
-5
Dec-07
-12000
Jun-07
Dec-06
-10000
Dec-05
-8000
Source: Bloomberg
48

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Renaissance Capital

Figure 40: 3MADTV, $mn

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 42: MSCI sector weights

Figure 43: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Figure 39: Economic outlook

Figure 41: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Czech Republic 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 37: Key data

Figure 46: Export destinations, total $172bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Figure 49: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Czech REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 50: Real GDP % change, YoY

Change in lending as % of GDP

Figure 48: Czech Republic - koruna

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Figure 47: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP

Real GDP (% YoY)

2.6 2.6 2.2

Figure 55: Trade balance

Trade balance, $mn

Industrial volumes, %YoY

Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)

Figure 53: Manufacturing PMI

Key Policy Rate, %

Figure 52: Credit growth

Figure 54: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

Figure 56: Retail sales (%YoY)

Retail Sales, % YoY

Figure 60: 3MADTV, $mn

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 59: Economic outlook

Figure 61: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn)

MSCI Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 62: MSCI sector weights

Figure 63: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Figure 57: Key data

Figure 66: Export destinations, total $27bn

Figure 67: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP

Figure 69: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Egypt REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 68: Egypt - pound

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Figure 70: Real GDP % change, YoY

Change in lending as % of GDP

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Real GDP (% YoY)

2.2 2.1 2.2

Figure 72: Credit growth

CB lending rate, % (RHS)

Credit growth, % YoY

Industrial volumes, %YoY

PPI, % YoY (RHS)

Figure 74: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)

Figure 73: Manufacturing PMI

Figure 76: Tourist arrivals, 000s

C/A balance (% GDP)

Goods and services balance (% GDP)

Tourist Arrivals, 000s

Figure 80: 3MADTV, $mn