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CE6002 Analysis of Civil Engineering Experiments

Saznizam S Sinoh A0148718U

CE6002 Assignment 2

Accident Type Distribution


281
7%
Fatal Accident

Injury Accident

766
19%

Non-injury Accident

3009
74%

Figure 1. Distribution of accident types.


A total of 4056 accidents occurred throughout the 250 districts with almost of all accidents
not resulting in any injury according to Figure 1. Furthermore, almost a fifth of all accidents
result in some sort of injury and loss of life occurred in 7% of all accidents.
The fatal accident rate (FAR) according to district is calculated by dividing the total
fatal accidents by the total number of accidents occurring at a certain district which is shown
in Equation 1. The data in Figure 2 shows that the district with the highest FAR is District 89
at 40%. In other words, accidents in District 89 have a 40% chance to be fatal. The second
most deadly districts are 66 and 95 which both have a 25% chance that an accident will be
fatal.

Fatal accident rate , FAR=

Number of fatal accidents occuringa district


Total number of accidents occuringa district

(1)

CE6002 Analysis of Civil Engineering Experiments

Saznizam S Sinoh A0148718U

Fatal Accident Rate per District


0

10

15

20

25

30

District

Fatal accident rate (%)

Figure 2. Fatal accident rate according to district.

35

40

CE6002 Analysis of Civil Engineering Experiments

Saznizam S Sinoh A0148718U

Table 1. Results of Individual Distribution Identification.


AndersonDistribution

Likelihood

Darling (AD)

P-Value

Statistic
0.833

0.031

Transformation
Lognormal
3-Parameter

0.833
3.195

0.031
<0.005

Lognormal
Exponential
2-Parameter

0.847
55.233

*
<0.003

Exponential
Weibull
3-Parameter Weibull
Smallest Extreme

33.764
0.732
0.748

<0.010
0.057
0.033

Value
Largest Extreme

2.595

<0.010

Value
Gamma
3-Parameter Gamma
Logistic
Loglogistic
3-Parameter

2.956
1.887
0.946
1.156
2.45

<0.010
<0.005
*
<0.005
<0.005

0.001

Loglogistic
Johnson

1.157

Transformation
Distribution

0.568
AD

0.14
P

LRT P

Normal
Box-Cox

Ratio
P-Value (LRT P)

0.551

The data was processed using Minitab to determine the most suitable type of
distribution to fit the data which is shown in Table 1. From Table 1, the normal distribution
has a low AD value while also possessing a low p-value which makes it a strong candidate
for the most suitable distribution. Therefore, the normal distribution is chosen as the most

CE6002 Analysis of Civil Engineering Experiments

Saznizam S Sinoh A0148718U

suitable distribution to best fit the data. Figure 3 shows the normal distribution of the total
accidents occurring throughout the 250 districts.

Probability Plot for Total Accidents


Goodness of Fit Test

Normal - 95% CI

Normal
AD = 0.833
P-Value = 0.031

99.9
99
95

Percent

80

50

20

5
1
0.1

10

15

20

25

30

35

Total Accidents

Figure 3. Normal distribution of the total accidents occurring throughout the 250 districts.