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US CROP UPDATE: GOOD EARLY U.S. CROP RATINGS USUALLY = LESS ABANDONMENT
We’ve elected to expand a bit on U.S. winter wheat crop prospects this week by examining the relationship of condition
ratings as the crop emerges from dormancy with the final level of abandonment. The chart at right shows the mid‐April
ATI crop index and the level of abandonment from 1995 through 2009 (the year 2010 is represented by the green bar).
We would expect to see a lower level of abandonment correlated with higher ratings and vice versa. The results of the
past 15 years show that, in general, that’s been true. For example, poor crop ratings were seen in 1996 and 2002 and the
level of abandonment was higher‐than‐normal. In contrast, higher‐than‐normal ratings in the late 1990s were followed
by a lower level of abandonment.
ATI Notes: The lower‐than‐expected 2010 winter wheat seedings total looks set to be offset by (1) high crop ratings; and
(2) a lower‐than‐normal level of abandonment. Yield potential appears to be quite high for HRW crops at this time.
INDEX FUNDS AND ITS AFFECT TO THE CBOT MARKET:
With the rapid growth of index fund participation in the CBOT wheat market since 2004 as part of the general rise in
commodities investment, the CBOT wheat market became overwhelmed by passive investors and ceased responding to
A closer look at the scale of index fund ownership of the CBOT wheat crop from 2004 to 2009 helps explain why the CBOT
wheat market ceased functioning as an effective barometer of any tensions between the World's supply and demand for
wheat.
As can be seen in the chart below, between 2004 and 2006 index funds increased their collective long positions in CBOT
wheat futures by more than 250 percent from less than 60,000 contracts to more than 200,000. As each contract
represents 5,000 bushels, that rise in ownership boosted the index fund long position from roughly 285 million bushels
(7.75 mmt) to more than 1 billion (27.21 mmt)
Advance Trading Australia | Special One Grain 2
Index funds investing in the wheat market will be faced with an increasingly hostile environment from July 2010 onward
as the CBOT have incorporated new policies designed to restore futures and cash price convergence. Without
convergence, hedging using the CBOT wheat market is less affective.
New rules centered on US storage costs come into effect in July 10 and are designed to make the rolling forward of long
futures positions more costly whenever the spot physical market is tight on inventory. These new rules may have a
bearish influence on the market if index funds liquidate and seek other markets to play in.
CHICKPEAS ‐ currently there is buying interest for old season chickpeas at approx $420‐
$430/mt delivered packer. A number of growers have been in contact with me over the
last couple of weeks enquiring about new season chickpea contracts. Special One Grain
are not offering hectare contracts for chickpeas, however we can trade fixed tonnage
chickpeas. Growers need to be mindful that a hectare contract is effectively locking
growers into a fixed tonnage commitment with min/max tonnage commitments over the
hectares contracted. Alternatively a grower can elect to sell a reduced yield across all or
some of their chickpea area on a fixed tonnage contract. Volatility is a certainty in the
chickpea market and prices can and do vary by up to and sometimes exceeding $100/mt in
a season. Currently the new season market is trading at around $400‐$410/mt delivered to
the packer. This price level is being set by sellers of hectare contract business and
speculators. Please contact me if you are willing to forward sell fixed tons at this stage.
FABABEANS ‐ little buying interest for feed fababeans at current grower price indications. May be some
interest at approx $170‐$180/mt farm. No 1 fababeans last traded at $220/mt Narrabri, however there has been
no recent buying enquiry.
For more information please contact ‐ Kim Powell‐0268 281228, Mb 0458 581 228
Dave Wheaton ‐ 0488 122 828, or Peter Nolan‐ 02 67 521 022, Mb 0458 081 228
GENERAL ADVICE WARNING
Please note that any advice given by ADVANCE staff is deemed to be GENERAL advice, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.
Therefore at all times you should consider the appropriateness of the advice before you act further.
ATA Disclaimer: The market commentary is prepared by an external source believed to be reliable. Advance Trading Australia cannot and does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-
infringement, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of any information contained in the market commentary. Nothing in the market commentary should be regarded as trading advice of any kind
whatsoever. This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading Australia. All information is based upon
data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Copyright 2010 Advance Trading Australia. 1 Wentworth St Wagga Wagga NSW 2650. Reproduction in any form without the expressed written consent of Advance Trading Australia is strictly forbidden.
This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading Australia. No guarantee of any kind is implied or
possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but it accuracy is not
guaranteed.