Islamic State and Japan: What Next?

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The beheading of two Japanese citizens at the

hands of the Islamic State has sent shock waves through Japan. Over the past two weeks the
Japanese public followed the unfolding drama, with domestic media providing in-depth analysis
of every video and voice recording released by the hostage-takers. A tearful statement from the
mother of murdered journalist Kenji Goto added to a national sense of distress. Meanwhile,
ominous televised images of ISIS fighters roaming Iraq and Syria and coverage of the groups
latest threat to Japanese citizens fuel a growing sense of fear that Japan is vulnerable to
international terrorism. With Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowing to make ISIS pay for their
sins, the hostage crisis has triggered a debate on Japans role in the Middle East both within
Japans parliament, the Diet, and among the wider public. The crisis has thus become a moment
of truth for Abes activist foreign policy in a region which fulfills the bulk of Japans energy
needs but also one in which Japan has traditionally been wary of entering into messy political
entanglements.
Ninety percent of Japanese oil comes from the Middle East, with nearly ten percent of that supply
coming from Iran. Historically Japan has imported oil from the region while attempting to steer
clear of Middle East politics, of which most Japanese have little knowledge. However, the reality
of its economic interests and its alliance with the U.S. has at times rendered such neutrality
difficult, if not impossible. The 1973 OPEC embargo awoke many Japanese to the political
consequences of their Middle East oil dependence. More recently, Tokyo has come under
significant pressure from Washington to play a supporting role in the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, as well as to curtail imports of Iranian oil. On all of these fronts, Japan obliged, but
in the face of significant public opposition to engaging in Iraq and Afghanistan in particular.
The ISIS hostage crisis, which was a direct response to Abes pledge of $200 million in
non-military humanitarian assistance to the war against ISIS, provides a fresh reminder to the
Japanese public of the costs of heightened involvement in the Middle East. In the short term,
while Abes ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has seized on the hostage crisis to push its own
agenda of loosening restrictions imposed by Japans pacifist constitution on the use of force,
highlighting the inability of the Japanese government to come to the aid of its own citizens, in the

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Islamic State and Japan: What Next? | The Diplomat

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longer term support for this is likely to diminish. Abes activist foreign policy still faces competing
pressures from a largely pacifist and isolationist public that holds deep reservations toward a
more muscular foreign policy. Abe is also under pressure from opposition parties, such as the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which criticized his recent overtures in Middle Eastern capitals,
even going so far as to suggest that Abes pledge of support to the anti-ISIS coalition was to blame
for the hostage crisis.
While the murders of Japanese citizens by ISIS may embolden Abe and his fellow hawks to
further their agenda of removing constraints imposed on Japans self-defense forces, it could also
have unintended consequences in terms of both domestic backlash and tensions with Korea and
China, which have heightened since Abe took power.
At the same time, the beheadings have also made many Japanese aware that the threat of ISIS is
truly global, and rather than instrumentalizing the tragedy to advance his own political agenda,
Abe can use this moment to raise public awareness about how Japans foreign policies, trade
included, impact its national security. Such public education, in turn, can be used to build
support for continued Japanese non-military engagement in the international coalition to defeat
ISIS. Unlike the U.S., Japan has credibility and soft power in the Middle East and can play a
mediating role for the U.S. and other Western countries. For instance, Japan could help engage
the Egyptian government in a way that promotes stability but also nudges Egypt toward greater
respect for human rights. Japan is also a world leader in humanitarian relief and possesses some
of the best practices in areas such as refugee assistance, something that is badly needed given the
desperate conditions in which millions of Syrian refugees find themselves. It is precisely this kind
of assistance that Abe promised during his recent Middle East trip.
Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski served as a U.S. diplomat for nearly a decade, with postings in
Albania, Kosovo, Japan, Egypt and Libya and currently teaches U.S. foreign policy at Pomona
College in California, USA. He has written for the Los Angeles Times, Christian Science Monitor,
and Project Syndicate. Christopher K. Lamont teaches at the University of Groningen
(Netherlands) and the Osaka School of International Public Policy. He is an expert on
transitional justice, Japan, and Tunisia.

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