Charles E. Cook Jr.

In the Balance:
The 2000 U.S. Elections

E very year we hear that the upcoming election in the United

States is to be one of the most important in modern history. And while a
credible case can be made that those elections were indeed important, the
2000 elections are truly the most important in years. The 2000 elections
feature a battle for control of the House of Representatives, a wide-open
race for president, and a number of high-profile Senate races.

The Presidency

In the race for president, Texas governor George W. Bush has dominated the
campaign for the Republican Party’s nomination earlier than any candidate
in modern history. The traditionally hierarchical Republican Party seemed
to lack a true heir-apparent for the 2000 contest until late spring, when
Bush suddenly took command. Bush now has a significant and perhaps in-
surmountable lead over his potential rivals in polls and fundraising.
Bush has raised a record $37 million so far, outpacing his nearest Repub-
lican rival, Arizona senator John McCain, by over $30 million. Not only has
Bush raised more money in the first six months of 1999 than the rest of the
Republican field combined, but he has raised more during that period than
any previous candidate for the office has in any six-month period, incum-
bents included. His fundraising success virtually ensures that he will forgo
federal matching funds and so will be able to spend freely to secure both his
party’s nomination and victory in the general election.

Charles E. Cook Jr. writes weekly columns for the National Journal magazine and
CongressDailyAM, published by the National Journal Group. He is a political analyst for
Cable News Network and the editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, a
Washington-based nonpartisan newsletter analyzing U.S. politics and elections.

Copyright © 1999 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Washington Quarterly • 22:4 pp. 189–196.

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 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

Polls also show Bush far out in front. In a Gallup poll for CNN and USA
Today, taken June 25-27, Bush led the field with a whopping 59 percent,13
points higher than in the two previous Gallup polls in late May and early
June. All other Republican contenders were in single digits. Similarly, in the
latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, taken June 16-19, Bush did even
better with 61 percent of the vote, though
former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole

A lthough early
did barely manage to move into double digits
with 11 percent, compared to her 8-percent,
leaders usually do second-place showing in the late- June Gallup
stumble, in the end poll. It is unprecedented for a nonincumbent
presidential candidate to so dominate a race
they generally do
this early.
manage to win. Increasingly, the question being asked is not
whether Bush’s bid for the GOP nomination
will be stopped but whether it can be stopped.
Every week Governor Bush’s campaign jugger-
naut seems to clear yet another checkpoint without serious mishap. Bush
made it through his initial foray into Iowa, New Hampshire, and the North-
east without a major misstep, and that was with a level of press coverage
previously reserved for papal visits. That trip featured microscopic scrutiny
of Bush’s performance. More recently he made it through California and al-
most a dozen other states, as well as the all-important second-quarter cam-
paign finance reporting period.
The obvious caveat is that front-runners not only can stumble, but they
usually do stumble, giving eternal hope not only to the second-tier candi-
dates but also the darkest of horses who have convinced themselves that
they still have a chance to win. But although early leaders usually do
stumble, in the end they generally manage to win. Former California gover-
nor Ronald Reagan lost the 1980 Iowa Caucus to former CIA Director
George Bush, but Reagan recovered from his stumble just weeks later in
New Hampshire and never looked back. Four years later, former Vice Presi-
dent Walter Mondale underperformed in New Hampshire against Sen. Gary
Hart but recovered to win the nomination. In 1988 it was Vice President
Bush’s turn to stumble, placing third in the Iowa Caucus behind Sen. Robert
Dole and Rev. Pat Robertson, though Bush made a comeback in New
Hampshire and prevailed from then on. In 1992 the Granite State turned
rock-hard for Bush. He beat television commentator Pat Buchanan but
without an impressive point spread, thus showing an early vulnerability that
turned out to be an omen for the fall campaign. Finally, in 1996 Dole won
the Iowa Caucus by a less-than-convincing margin, then lost to Buchanan

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 In the Balance: The 2000 U.S. Elections l

in New Hampshire, narrowly edging out former Tennessee governor Lamar

Alexander for third place, barely averting what would have been a disaster
for his campaign. But Dole ended up clinching the nomination soon after
New Hampshire.
In each case, the stumbling front-runner regained his stride and pre-
vailed. Front-runners are uniquely positioned to attract more money, as-
semble better campaign organizations, and collect endorsements. Especially
important is the endorsement of governors, because they have grassroots or-
ganizations that can muscle a weak presidential candidate through a tough
primary.
At what point does Bush’s momentum become so powerful that even a
great stumble would not deprive him the GOP nod? His rivals, save the self-
financed Steve Forbes, may simply not have the financial resources to
mount a strong attack and take advantage of a colossal mistake by Bush.
The campaign is not at that point yet, but it is closer now than anyone
would have thought possible just six months ago.
On the Democratic side, the race is getting more competitive, not less. In
hypothetical general-election polling, Bush maintains an impressive though
not insurmountable 13- to 17-point lead over Vice President Al Gore in
most national polls. But Gore also faces a fight in his own party’s camp.
Former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley is increasingly seen as a true com-
petitor against Gore for the Democratic nomination. Although Gore re-
mains the front-runner, 2000 appears to be more of a race than anyone
anticipated, and Bradley has exceeded political and financial expectations.
Gore raised an impressive $18 million during the first six months of this
year, but Bradley’s ability to raise $12 million against an incumbent raised
eyebrows. Bradley languishes in national and Iowa polls, but recent surveys
in both New Hampshire and in neighboring Massachusetts (the states have
overlapping media markets) show Bradley running neck-and-neck with the
vice president.

A House Divided

In Congress both major parties continue to wage combat for the House of
Representatives, which with 223 Republican members to 212 Democrats is
more closely divided than at any time since 1955. With Democrats need-
ing just six additional seats to capture control, the Republicans are clearly
teetering on the edge. Relatively few seats are up for grabs on a fairly level
partisan playing field, so the odds for control seem to slightly favor Repub-
licans for now, though anything can happen between now and election
day. This balance between the parties is reflected in recent congressional

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 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

ballot tests that ask voters nationally what party they prefer for Congress;
the poll showed the two parties running even. Early this year, immediately
after the Clinton impeachment trial, Democrats had enjoyed a 6- to 10-
point advantage.
As always, the greatest focus in the House will be on open seats, as the
incumbent reelection rate remains high, averaging 93.9 percent from 1980
to 1998, ranging from a low of 88.3 percent in 1992 to a high of 98.3 per-
cent in 1988 and 1998. The greatest volatility in the House almost always
comes in years when many seats are open. Over the last 10 elections, the av-
erage number of open seats was 43. For the coming election, though, only
15 seats are currently open and only a few more are likely to open up in the
coming months, a situation that almost ensures low volatility in 2000.
In addition, at this early stage in the campaign the House appears to have
an unusually low number of competitive races, even fewer than in 1990 and
1998, which were exceptionally good years for incumbents. The final
preelection issues of The Cook Political Report in 1992, when House banking,
post office, and other scandals created a strong anti-incumbent mood, listed
152 races as competitive and a whopping 94 of those as toss-ups. In 1994,
with a Republican tidal wave on the horizon, the report considered 138
races to be competitive, including 73 toss-ups. Those numbers were down a
bit in 1996, and by 1998 the number of competitive races had dwindled to
62, with just 26 toss-ups.
Today each party has only about five or six House seats that appear to be
in real danger. Each party has about two dozen more that are potentially
competitive. About a third of these potentially competitive seats will be-
come highly competitive before the cycle is through. Another third will
move to safe ground as the challengers fail to pan out. The remaining third
currently hover on the edge and could become either very competitive or
less serious challenges.
Democrats have two freshmen incumbents in real danger—Rush Holt, of
New Jersey’s 12th district, and Joe Hoeffel, of Pennsylvania’s 13th—plus
second-term representative Jim Maloney from the 5th district in Connecti-
cut, and an open seat in Michigan’s 8th district, where Debbie Stabenow is
stepping down to run for the Senate. Republicans should be most concerned
about freshmen Robin Hayes, in North Carolina’s 8th, and Don Sherwood,
in Pennsylvania’s 10th, who both barely won in 1998 and will likely face
rematches in 2000, as well as veteran Richard Baker, in Louisiana’s 6th, who
also faces a rematch against a candidate who previously held him to just
50.7 percent. Jim Rogan, in California’s 27th district, gained considerable
national exposure as one of the most visible of the House managers pros-
ecuting President Clinton during the impeachment trial; he will be facing a

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 In the Balance: The 2000 U.S. Elections l

much tougher opponent than in 1998, and Rogan’s is a marginal district.

This race is certain to be one the most competitive of the cycle. Rounding
out the most vulnerable Republican list are two open seats: Oklahoma’s 2nd
district, where Tom Coburn is retiring; and Washington’s 2nd district, where
Jack Metcalf is also stepping down.
There is no single reason for this decline in competition, but both parties
have consolidated their strength in their strongest states and districts, giv-
ing fewer opportunities for takeovers. Few Democrats are sitting in what
might be considered Republican seats, par-
ticularly in the Southern and Mountain
states, just as few Republicans are now sit-
ting in what should be Democratic seats,
I
n Congress both
most specifically in the Northeast but to a major parties continue
lesser extent in the Midwest. to wage combat for
The rising cost of campaigns is also an the House of
important reason for the decline in compe-
tition. In addition to increasing costs for
Representatives.
television advertising time and other cam-
paign expenses, a District Court in Colo-
rado recently ruled unconstitutional the
limits placed on the amount of money the national party committees can
spend in coordination with individual campaigns. Although the ruling is un-
der appeal, it could affect the 2000 elections. Traditionally, national party
committees ranked their target races, then provided the maximum level of
financial support for the top races until they ran out of money somewhere
near the middle of the target list. With the spending limits effectively re-
moved by the court and with the parties shifting to advocacy and even inde-
pendent expenditure advertising (e.g., advertising conducted by the party or
other group without coordination with a campaign), more party financial re-
sources will likely be funneled into only the most hotly contested races. This
trend will cut off party support to many second- or third-tier candidates who
would receive national party funds under the old system and may limit the
campaigns’ receipts from allied political groups that follow the parties’ lead
in deciding where to spend their money. As a result, a fairly small number of
House campaigns will become increasingly costly and sophisticated, resem-
bling Senate campaigns in small- to medium-sized states.
With few competitive races and open seats, the Democrats face a daunt-
ing challenge in their attempt to score a net gain of six seats. A five- to
seven-seat swing in either direction can reasonably be expected, but a net
gain of six would be remarkable. However, if Democrats somehow develop
momentum as they did at the close of the 1998 campaign, then a gain of six

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 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

seats would become highly possible, if not likely. The apparent tightness of
the contest means that Democrats must win many of the closest races. This
is certainly possible, but a tall order. In short, while Democrats don’t need a
major nationalization (i.e., national issues dominating the agenda) of the
election, they probably do need some boost in momentum, rather than small
gains in individual races, to get them over the top. And if that momentum
never arrives? Assuming the current symmetry remains and the playing field
stays flat, the most likely outcome is that the two parties essentially swap
seats back and forth, and neither gains much advantage.

Senate Races in the Spotlight

Nothing in politics is ever impossible, so Democrats have not lost hope of

recapturing control of the Senate. Still, it would take a major nationaliza-
tion of the race in the Democrats’ favor for them to pull it off. Although 19
Republican seats are up for grabs in 2000, compared to only 14 Democratic
seats, Democrats have 4 seats in immediate danger, compared to 3 seats for
Republicans. Democrats need a multitude of breaks to pick up the five seats
they would need for Senate control if they also hold the White House (thus
allowing a Democratic vice president to break any tie), or six seats if they
lose the presidency.
At the top of Democrats’ target list will be open Republican seats in
Florida and Rhode Island, where Connie Mack and John Chafee, respec-
tively, are retiring. Next comes Missouri, where Republican incumbent John
Ashcroft is facing a stiff challenge from Democratic governor Mel Carnahan
in what is sure to be a close race. In Michigan, freshman Republican Spence
Abraham will face a very formidable adversary in Democratic representative
Debbie Stabenow, the star recruit for Democrats so far (Missouri’s Carnahan
needed no recruiting). Both Rod Grams in Minnesota and Rick Santorum in
Pennsylvania appear to be very vulnerable, but it’s uncertain whether
Democrats will nominate a top-tier candidate who will be up to the chal-
lenge in either race. In Washington state, Slade Gorton always seems to face
tough reelection campaigns, and will likely do so again, though Democrats
have had some problems uniting behind a single candidate. In Delaware,
Democrats are anxiously waiting to hear whether Gov. Tom Carper will take
on five-term Sen. Bill Roth. In Vermont, the question is whether indepen-
dent (but functionally Democratic) representative Bernie Sanders will take
on Sen. Jim Jeffords. Both Carper and Sanders will be formidable challeng-
ers if they run; if they don’t, the incumbent Senators will likely be reelected
easily.
Republicans have their sights set on three Democratic open seats and one

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 In the Balance: The 2000 U.S. Elections l

incumbent. In Virginia, Sen. Charles Robb will face a tough challenge from
former Gov. George Allen. Early polls show Allen running well ahead, but
most on both sides expect the race to tighten once the fight begins. The
open seats are in the three N’s—Nevada, where Dick Bryan is retiring; New
Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg is stepping down; and New York, where the
venerable Daniel Patrick Moynihan is not seeking a fifth term.
In Nevada, former GOP congressman John Ensign, who came within 428
votes of unseating Sen. Harry Reid in 1998, is almost certain to be the Re-
publican nominee in 2000, while Democrats will probably field state Attor-
ney General Frankie Sue Del Papa. Both are
proven vote-getters, and the state has become
increasingly competitive. Del Papa’s strained
relations with organized labor undercut her
T
he New York
chances somewhat. In New Jersey, the Republi- Senate race is
can nod will go to Governor Christie Todd likely to share top
Whitman, but the Democratic nomination is billing with the
still very much up in the air. Former Governor
Jim Florio is running, seeking to avenge his
presidential race.
1991 reelection loss to Whitman, as is former
Goldman-Sachs cochair Jon Corzine.
In New York, First Lady Hillary Rodham
Clinton has virtually announced her candidacy, and New York City mayor
Rudy Giuliani is all but committed to run on the Republican side. Polls in
late spring showed Clinton and Giuliani running roughly even when
matched head-to-head, though the First Lady began the year with a rather
commanding lead. Complicating matters for Giuliani is Republican con-
gressman Rick Lazio’s apparent determination to run. Lazio is likely both to
challenge Giuliani for the Republican nomination and to seek the Conser-
vative Party endorsement. While Giuliani would certainly be favored to win
the GOP primary, Lazio could make it a race. Giuliani is among the most
liberal of Republican elected officials in the nation and angered some more
traditional Republicans by actively campaigning for Democratic governor
Mario Cuomo in 1994 and by supporting a New York City commuter tax and
partial-birth abortions. Some New York political observers, noting that only
13 percent of the Republicans statewide primary vote comes from New York
City, believe that a Lazio upset of Giuliani is possible. At the very least,
Lazio could soften up Giuliani among Republicans, and many insiders say
that Lazio has the Conservative line all but wrapped up. The remaining
question is whether Clinton could be beaten if both Giuliani, carrying the
Republican and possibly the Liberal Party lines, and Lazio on the Conserva-
tive line are in the race—and possibly even a Right-to-Life candidate.

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 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

Whatever the lineup, the New York Senate race is likely to share top billing
with the presidential race.
All in all, 2000 promises to be the most exciting elections in recent
memory, a double-open (no incumbent) presidential race, control of the
House hanging in the balance, and a complete complement of hotly con-
tested Senate races, perhaps including the Senate fight of the century in
New York.

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