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17 December 2002
Managing Change through Partnership
Introduction
Overview of Results
Operational Effectiveness using Joint System
Analysis Simulation (JSAS) Model
Operational Effectiveness (Search Area Analysis)
Total Ownership Cost
Transportation Analysis
USCG Aviation Concerns
OIPT Recommendation
MPA Future Development Activities and Schedule
Purpose:
– Consider Potential IDS Baseline Revisions (6 or 16 C130J’s
introduced into the IDS and NSF/MSST Organic Air
Transportation)
Future Actions:
– Establish POAM for Addressing Aviation IPT Concerns with
CN-235 300M Aircraft Variants
Operational Effectiveness:
– C27J is a more capable asset (speed, range, endurance, cargo capacity, etc.) than the CN-
235 300M aircraft variants
– CN-235 300M aircraft variants meet IDS MPA allocated performance requirements as
modeled in JSAS
Transportation Analysis:
– No MPA candidate is capable of meeting the pending Organic Air Transport
Requirements
– C130’s are required to meet NSF and MSST transportation requirements (NSF is the
driver)
Technical Risk/Mitigation:
– CN-235 300M aircraft variant concerns need to be resolved during the execution of C&TD
and SD&D DTO’s and may result in increased costs
The 3 geographic regions (Northeast, Southeast, & West) where MPAs were based
were analyzed to assess if the three candidate aircraft (CN 235-300, CN 235-300
ER, and C-27J) could cover each assigned patrol area, and if not, what percentage
was covered
Sortie length and coverage area of each search area in each region was
determined
Analysis included assessment for each MPA aircraft type utilizing track miles and
transit distances to the search area and the following aircraft performance
parameters: Fuel Capacity, Launch and Recovery Fuel Consumption Constraints,
Transit and Patrol Fuel Burn Rates, and Transit and Patrol Speeds
Track Spacing of 30 NM and 10% Fuel Reserve were utilized
The results below summarize the total number of patrol areas in each region not
covered (including those that could not be reached) and the average coverage
factor
The numbers in parenthesis for each region represent the number of unique
search areas in the region assigned to the MPA as identified by ICGS CONOPS
The number in brackets represents the number of search areas that could not be
reached. A value of 0% was used in calculating the average coverage factor
Grenada
HSDN Area
Hawaii Northwest
Hawaii Prohibited Area
Hawaii East
Wake EEZ
Johnston Atoll EEZ
Guam EEZ
Palmyra EEZ
Baja 2
Samoa EEZ
Costs are 2002 Economic Conditions in Subcontractor’s dollars (this is not the cost
to the CG to acquire an MPA)
Baseline 3.1 Implementation Plan was used for MPA asset introduction into the IDS
(C-27J cannot be delivered in accordance with this schedule)
ROM numbers for C-27J costs vs. FFP for CN-235 300M and CN-235 300M ER costs
(apply 15% ROM factor to account for delta)
Logistics commonality for the C-27J and C-130J, where applicable and quantifiable,
has been included
Mission System cost common across A/C platforms (common mission system cost
used)
Flight hours are based on JSAS modeling output (MSMP)
CN-235 300M and CN-235 300M ER cost for Power by the Hour includes technology
obsolescence; C-27J cost for technology obsolescence is included in condemnation
cost
Model puts NRE in first year and one time AC&I spread over first five years
CN-235 300M and CN-235 300M ER PBH OE costs that were “double counted” were
removed
Updated information was provided to CG regarding C-27J ROM costs and was
considered in the analysis
INTEGRATED COAST GUARD SYSTEMS PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Integrated Coast Guard Systems
MPA AC&I and OE Comparison
Managing Change through Partnership
AC&I Non
$163.5 M $155.8 M $158.8 M
Recurring
AC&I Recurring
(per aircraft $21.9 M $31.6 M $35.5 M
purchased)
OE Recurring
(per operational $2.67 M $3.15 M $3.32 M
aircraft)
Total OE (per
$82.8 M $97.7 M $102.9 M
year)
TOC (AC&I + 30
$3.5 B $4.2 B $4.5 B
years OE)
300
Note: Dollar figures are preliminary estimates
and should not be considered contractually
binding.
Costs are in 2002 E.C in Subcontractor $ TOC
Millions
CN 235-ER TOC
200
C-27J TOC w/o ROM factor
Dollars
150
100
50
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
Years
Closed loop parts pool considered for C-27J; Commercial parts pool
considered for CN-235 300M and CN-235 300M ER (cost adjustment for
transition from an open loop to a closed loop parts pool was not
reasonably quantifiable)
– CASA estimates up to an additional $6M non recurring AC&I for initial
provisioning will be required to establish the rotable parts pool required to
support a closed loop parts pool for flight critical parts
OE Training cost commonality has not been included in the analysis
(commonality savings was not reasonably quantifiable)
– The CG has estimated that up to approximately $1M per year OE cost savings
could be realized per year due to C-130J and C-27J training commonality
issues including reductions in initial course development cost, reductions in
“C” School recurring costs, reduction in pilot initial and recurrent training
costs, reduced mishap costs and increased safety, and increased retention of
enlisted aircrew/mechanics.
AC&I Non
$169.5 M $155.8 M $158.8 M
Recurring
AC&I Recurring
(per aircraft $21.9 M $31.6 M $35.5 M
purchased)
OE Recurring
(per operational $2.67 M $3.15 M $3.32 M
aircraft)
Total OE (per
$82.8 M $96.7 M $101.9 M
year)
TOC (AC&I + 30
$3.5 B $4.2 B $4.5 B
years OE)
300
Note: Dollar figures are preliminary estimates
and should not be considered contractually
binding.
Costs are in 2002 E.C in Subcontractor $ TOC
M illions
CN 235-ER TOC
200
C-27J TOC w/o ROM factor
D olla rs
150
100
50
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
Years
NSF MSST
NSF will be transported only by RB-Ss are pre-located at all strategic ports
HC-130s except for inland river sites.
– Note: Two C-27Js may be able to Mobile MPAs are not used because they will
transport NSF equipment if the trailer not have load masters
height was decreased from 9' to In order to maintain SAR B-0 at home unit,
approximately 8'. limit the MPAs to fly MSSTs as follows:
Launch time from home station = – 3 aircraft
aircraft unit
unit = 1 deployable
deployable aircraft
aircraft
1.5 hrs to remove mission – 4 aircraft
aircraft unit
unit = 2 deployable
deployable aircraft
aircraft
– 5 aircraft
aircraft unit
unit = 3 deployable
deployable aircraft
aircraft
equipment – 6 aircraft
aircraft unit
unit = 3 deployable
deployable aircraft
aircraft
Cycle time at loading site is 2 hrs Launch time from home station = 1.5 hrs to
for C-130 remove mission equipment
NSF equipment and personnel are Subsequent launches from same home
available for loading when aircraft station add 1/2 hour to previous launch
arrives Cycle time at loading site - 1.5 hrs for MPA,
2 hrs for C-130
Flight crews will be doubled up or Simultaneous loading is possible at loading
pre-positioned to keep the aircraft site
moving MSST equipment & personnel are available
The only destinations used are the and ready for loading when aircraft arrives
Strategic Ports established in MPA Hot day and 6% weight growth limits CN-235
study. cargo weight
– No effect on C-27J or C-130J
Flight crews will be doubled up or pre-
positioned to keep the aircraft moving.
6 C-130’s in Kodiak:
– No scenarios attain the goal of airborne in 6 hours and on-scene in 8 hours
16 C-130’s in PACAREA:
– No east coast districts attain the goal of airborne in 6 hours and on-scene in
8 hours
– Mid CONUS districts do get airborne within 6 hours, but arrive on-scene after
8 hours
– West coast districts attain both goals of airborne in 6 hours and on scene in
8 hours
– Alaska and Pacific districts are airborne within 6 hours, but arrive on scene
well beyond 8 hours
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000 MPA = CN-235
$400,000 MPA = C-27J
$200,000
$-
6 C-130s 16 C-130s 16 C-130s
@ Kodiak @ PACAREA @ PAC &
LANT
Growth/Margins:
– Max Gross Weight:
• CN 235 300M ER Aircraft currently has no Life Cycle Gross Weight Growth Capability…May Impact
Mission Growth Capability
• Concerns w/ Continuous Operations at Max Gross Weight
– Cargo Hauling Capability:
• Neither MPA Candidate is Capable of Meeting the OAT Requirements
Operational/Capability Limitations:
– Air Intercept Mission:
• Requirement Not Definitized
• Mission Max Speed Not Identified
– Operations in Icing Conditions:
• CASA 235 Series Aircraft are FAA Certified for Civil Flight into Heavy Icing
OIPT Recommendation
Managing Change through Partnership
01/29/03
C/A “Start
Complete
0040BA Production”
Production
Aircraft
Delivery to
Long Lead: Production Lead Time AR&SC
“start – 9 months” A/C #1 – 24 months (total
including lead time)