CBS News Presidential Poll

CBS NEWS POLL
For release: Thursday, February 18, 2016

7:00 AM EST
The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top Hell Get Things Done
February 12-16, 2016
Donald Trump (35%) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17
point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). John Kasich (11%) has now
risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12%). Trump leads among nearly every
demographic group.
More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support,
but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.
Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and
their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will
work within the system.
Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing his
rivals on this measure.
Trump trails Cruz and Rubio on sharing the values of Republican primary voters and on having
realistic policies, but half still think he is prepared to be President, and he is widely seen as the
most electable candidate of the field. He rates higher than Cruz or Rubio on handling the
economy and an international crisis.
Where the Race Stands

With the first votes already cast in Iowa and New Hampshire - and with the once sprawling Republican
presidential field whittled down to six remaining candidates - Donald Trump continues to hold a doubledigit lead over the rest of the Republican field nationally. 35% of Republican primary voters support
Trump, 17 points ahead of his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). These numbers are
virtually unchanged from a month ago.
There has been little movement among the remaining six Republican candidates, with one notable
exception. After a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Ohio Governor John Kasich who
has consistently trailed all the remaining candidates since August has shot up to 11%, challenging
Florida Senator Marco Rubio for third place. Jeb Bush (4%) has slipped to last place among the six
remaining candidates, behind Ben Carson (6%).
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Dont know
Now
35%
18
12
11
6
4
8
2016 Republican Nomination for President

(Among Republican primary voters)
1/2016
12/2015
10/2015
36%
35%
22%
19
16
4
12
9
8
2
3
4
6
13
26
6
3
7
7
7
6
9/2015
27%
5
6
3
23
6
9
8/2015
24%
6
6
1
6
13
9
46% of Republican primary voters say they have now made up their minds about whom to vote for, up
from 35% last month. But Trumps supporters are surer about their choice: Two-thirds of Trump voters
now say they have made up their minds. Among those supporting other candidates, the race is more
fluid; two-thirds of them may still change their minds.
Yes, mind is made up

No, too early
Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice?

Total Voters
Trump Voters
Now 1/2016
Now 1/2016
46% 35%
65% 52%
53
64
34
47
Non-Trump Voters
Now 1/2016
33% 24%
66
76
Trumps support cuts across nearly every demographic group in the Republican electorate. He holds a
double digit lead among Republicans and independents, men and women, white evangelicals, and
Americans of all income levels. He leads among Republican voters of all age and education levels, but
does particularly well among voters without college degrees.
Trump also holds a double digit lead among moderates and those who describe themselves as
somewhat conservative, and has a five point lead over Ted Cruz among very conservative Republican
voters.
Total

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
35%
18
12
Kasich
11
Republicans
Independents
36%
32%
19
17
12
11
11
11
Men
Women
39%
31%
18
18
13
11
12
10
Moderate
Somewhat conservative
Very conservative
34%
33%
35%
9
19
30
13
14
12
19
9
4
White evangelicals
33%
22
13
Age 18-44
Age 45-64
Age 65+
31%
37%
37%
21
17
16
12
12
12
14
8
12
Income under $50K

Income $50K-$100K
Income $100K+
41%
31%
32%
17
18
18
9
12
16
9
11
14
High school or less

Some College
College grads+
47%
33%
25%
17
18
19
8
13
15
7
7
18
Enthusiasm for the Eventual Nominee

35% of Republican primary voters would enthusiastically support a Trump candidacy (down slightly
from 40% in January), slightly higher than enthusiasm for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio if either of them
became the Republican nominee.
Just one in five Republican primary voters would not support Donald Trump if he were to win the
nomination.
If _________ is the Republican Nominee, Would You?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Support enthusiastically
35%
32%
Support with reservations
28
26
Support because they are nominee
14
20
Would not support
20
18
Marco Rubio
31%
27
22
17
Shaking Things Up, Getting Things Done

Most Republican primary voters dont want the next president to cater to the status quo in Washington.
70% want someone who will shake up the political system, while just 24% want someone who will work
within the political system.
Do You Want the Next President to?
Shake up the system
70%
Work within the system
24
Donald Trump is the top choice among those who want a candidate that will shake up the system, at
42%. Those who want a candidate who will work within the system are torn between Marco Rubio
(25%) and John Kasich (21%).
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Dont know

Total
Want a candidate who will
Voters
Shake up the system
Work within the system
35%
42%
18%
18
19
16
12
8
25
11
8
21
6
6
4
4
3
6
8
10
6
And by a large margin, Trump is seen as the candidate most likely to get things done once he gets to
Washington. 43% of Republican primary voters pick Trump for this, compared to 16% for Ted Cruz and
13% for Marco Rubio.
Most Likely to Get Things Done in Washington

Donald Trump
43%
Ted Cruz
16
Marco Rubio
13
John Kasich
10
Jeb Bush
5
Ben Carson
4
Candidate Strengths and Weaknesses
Trump is also seen as by far the most electable of the candidates still in the race, and confidence in
Trumps chances in the general election has risen considerably over the course of the campaign. Even
those not backing Trump pick him as the candidate most likely to win in November.
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Best Chance of Winning in November

Now
10/2015
9/2015
53%
41%
39%
18
3
4
12
8
5
4
1
2
3
8
11
1
21
18
7/2015
26%
4
4
1
4
1
As attention shifts to the Supreme Court after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, Republican primary
voters are split between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz over who is most trusted to make appointments
to the Supreme Court. Moderates strongly favor Trump, while conservatives particularly those who
consider themselves very conservative favor Cruz.
Trust Most to Make Appointment to the Supreme Court
Total
Moderates
Somewhat Conservative
Very Conservative
25%
27%
24%
19%
25
16
27
38
12
11
10
13
12
9
10
17
10
16
9
5
9
12
12
6
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
51% of Republican primary voters think Donald Trump is prepared to be President - though slightly
more think so of Ted Cruz (57%). Just 42% of Republican primary voters think Marco Rubio is
prepared to be President.
Yes
No
Are They Prepared to Be President?

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
51%
57%
44
36
Marco Rubio
42%
48
Despite his many perceived strengths with voters, the percentage who think Donald Trump shares their
values has dropped slightly since January, from 59% last month to 50% today. Trump trails both Cruz
and Rubio when it comes to sharing the values of Republican primary voters.
Yes
No
Do They Share Your Values?

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Now 1/2016
Now 1/2016
50% 59%
56% 63%
44
35
35
24
Marco Rubio
Now 2016
56% 59%
34
27
In addition, many Republican primary voters dont think Donald Trumps policies are realistic: 44% think
they are and 50% think they are not. In contrast, majorities of Republican primary voters think both Ted
Cruz (57%) and Marco Rubio (58%) have realistic policy proposals.
Yes
No
Are Their Policies Realistic?

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
44%
57%
50
33
Marco Rubio
58%
31
Not surprisingly, Trump voters see things differently. Nine in 10 Trump voters think he shares their
values, and eight in 10 Trump voters think his policies are realistic.
Far more Republican primary voters are very confident in Donald Trumps ability to handle the economy
(49%) than either Ted Cruz (21%) or Marco Rubio (17%), and he has a clear, if smaller, advantage
over both Cruz and Rubio on handling an international crisis.
Confidence in These Candidates on Handling
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
The Economy
Very
Somewhat
Not too/not at all
49%
28
22
21%
47
29
17%
43
35
An International Crisis
Very
Somewhat
Not too/not at all
29%
29
40
24%
38
34
17%
39
40
What Republicans Want in a Candidate

Overall, a candidate who shares their values (42%) is the candidate quality most desired by Republican
primary voters. 28% of Republican primary voters most want a candidate who says what they believe,
while experience (15%) and electability (12%) are further down on the list of priorities. For Trump
voters, however, having a candidate who says what he believes (39%) is more important than having a
candidate who shares their values (33%).
Which Candidate Quality is Most Important?

Total
Trump Voters
Non-Trump Voters
Sharing my values
42%
33%
49%
Saying what they believe
28
39
22
Having the right experience
15
11
15
Can win in November
12
14
11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------This poll was conducted by telephone February 12-16, 2016 among a random sample of 2,007 adults nationwide, including 1,641
registered voters and 581 registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News
and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the
household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.
The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus two percentage points. The margin of error for the
sample of 581 Republican primary voters could be plus or minus five percentage points. The error for other subgroups may be higher and
is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.
CBS NEWS POLL

The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top Hell Get Things Done
February 12-16, 2016
Q1-Q6 RELEASED SEPARATELY
Q7. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no
attention so far?
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Don't know/No answer
** REGISTEREED VOTERS **
Total Rep
Dem Ind
%
%
%
%
51
59
48
47
34
29
36
36
10
8
10
11
5
5
6
5
*
*
1
*
Jan16a
%
44
35
15
5
*
*Less than 0.5%
Prim. Have you already voted in or do you plan to vote in a Republican primary or caucus this year, or in a Democratic
primary or caucus, or are you not voting in a primary or caucus at all this year?
Republican primary
Democratic primary
Not likely to vote
Never vote
(Vol.)
33
34
21
1
11
76
3
16
1
5
3
76
15
*
6
25
21
32
1
21
Jan16a^
37
37
17
*
9
*Less than 0.5%

^Wording change: Next year, are you more likely to vote
Q8. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Someone Else (Vol.)
None of them (Vol.)
* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

%
35
18
12
11
6
4
1
5
8
Jan16a
%
36
19
12
2
6
6
11
1
7
Q9. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE
%
Mind made up
Too early
46
53
*
Jan16a
%
35
64
1
*Less than 0.5%
Q10. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think
has the best chance of winning the general election in November?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Someone Else (Vol.)
None of them (Vol.)

%
53
18
12
4
3
1
*
1
7
Oct15d^
%
41
3
8
1
10
21
7
1
9
*Less than 0.5%

^Wording change:In November 2016.
Q11. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these candidates do you think is most likely to get
things done in Washington?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Someone Else (Vol.)
None of them (Vol.)
*Less than 0.5%
43
16
13
10
5
4
*
4
6
Q12. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you trust
most to appoint justices to the U.S. Supreme Court?^
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Someone Else (Vol.)
None of them

%
25
25
12
12
10
9
*
1
6
^Partial sample of 257 Republican Primary voters interviewed 2/14-2/16/2016

*Less than 0.5%
Q13. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him,
support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support
Support only because nominee
Not support him
35
28
14
20
3
Jan16a
%
40
31
9
18
2
Q14. If Ted Cruz became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support
him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Not support him
32
26
20
18
4
37
25
18
16
5
Q15. If Marco Rubio became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him,
support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Not support him
31
27
22
17
4
32
31
18
12
7
Q16.-Q22 RELEASED SEPARATELY

Q23. Would you prefer the next president be someone who will try to work within the political system in Washington or
someone who will try to shake up the political system in Washington?
Working within the political system

Shake up the political system
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Rep
Dem Ind
%
%
%
%
34
26
49
28
59
67
47
64
6
7
5
7
*** PRIMARY VOTERS ***

Rep Vtrs
Dem Vtrs
%
%
24
45
70
52
6
3
Q24. Which one of these candidate qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for the Republican
nomination for president in 2016?
Shares my values
Says what they believe
Has the right experience
Can win in November

%
42
28
15
12
3
Q25. From what youve heard or read, generally, would you describe Donald Trumps policy proposals as realistic or not
realistic?
Realistic
Not realistic
44
50
6
Q26. Do you think Donald Trump shares your values, or not?
Yes
No
50
44
6
Jan16a
%
59
35
6
Q27. From what you know so far, do you think Donald Trump is prepared for the job of President, or not?
Is prepared
Is not prepared
51
44
5
Q28. From what youve heard or read, generally, would you describe Ted Cruzs policy proposals as realistic or not
realistic?
Realistic
Not realistic

%
57
33
10
Q29. Do you think Ted Cruz shares your values, or not?
Yes
No
56
35
9
Jan16a
%
63
24
13
Q30. From what you know so far, do you think Ted Cruz is prepared for the job of President, or not?
Is prepared
Is not prepared
57
36
7
Q31. From what youve heard or read, generally, would you describe Marco Rubios policy proposals as realistic or not
realistic?
Realistic
Not realistic
58
31
11
Q32. Do you think Marco Rubio shares your values, or not?

Yes
No
56
34
10
59
27
14
Q33. From what you know so far, do you think Marco Rubio is prepared for the job of President, or not?
Is prepared
Is not prepared
42
48
10
Q34. How confident are you in Donald Trumps ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident

%
49
28
9
13
1
Dec15a
%
51
31
8
10
*
Q35. How confident are you in Donald Trump's ability to handle an international crisis--are you very confident,
somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
29
29
19
21
2
Oct15a
23
39
18
20
1
Q36. How confident are you in Ted Cruzs ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
21
47
16
13
4
Dec15a
26
44
14
9
8
Q37. How confident are you in Ted Cruzs ability to handle an international crisis are you very confident, somewhat
confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
24
38
20
14
4
Q38. How confident are you in Marco Rubios ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident

%
17
43
23
12
5
Dec15a
%
16
44
18
11
12
Q39. How confident are you in Marco Rubios ability to handle an international crisis are you very confident,
somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
17
39
24
16
4
Unweighted
2,007
Weighted
Total Respondents
Total Registered Voters
Total Republican Primary Voters
1,674
581
1,601
523

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CBS NEWS POLL

For release: Thursday, February 18, 2016

Where the Race Stands

2016 Republican Nomination for President

Yes, mind is made up

Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice?

2016 Republican Nomination for President

Income under $50K

High school or less

Enthusiasm for the Eventual Nominee

Shaking Things Up, Getting Things Done

2016 Republican Nomination for President

Most Likely to Get Things Done in Washington

Best Chance of Winning in November

Are They Prepared to Be President?

Do They Share Your Values?

Are Their Policies Realistic?

What Republicans Want in a Candidate

Which Candidate Quality is Most Important?

CBS NEWS POLL

*Less than 0.5%

*Less than 0.5%

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

*Less than 0.5%

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

*Less than 0.5%

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

^Partial sample of 257 Republican Primary voters interviewed 2/14-2/16/2016

Q16.-Q22 RELEASED SEPARATELY

Working within the political system

*** PRIMARY VOTERS ***

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

Q26. Do you think Donald Trump shares your values, or not?

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

Q29. Do you think Ted Cruz shares your values, or not?

Q32. Do you think Marco Rubio shares your values, or not?

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

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* PRIMARY VOTERS *