HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

February 2016

Study #16091 -- page 1

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Interviews: 400 Republican Primary Voters

Date: February 14-16, 2016

54 Male
46 Female
Study #16091
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.

The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is 4.90%

Q13

Next, Im going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Republican nomination for president.
For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the
Republican nomination president. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

No, Could Not See

Self Supporting

Dont Know
Name

Not
Sure

70
67
64
59
65
63
62
74
74
56

28
28
29
32
26
27
29
15
15
26

1
4
4
5
5
9
7
8
9
14

1
1
3
4
4
1
2
3
2
4

65
71
67
57
48
45
52
51
57
40

33
25
27
34
41
44
38
31
28
38

1
2
4
4
5
8
7
14
12
18

1
2
2
5
6
3
3
4
3
4

62
60
63
77
74
69
49
50
39
41

35
39
32
18
20
23
27
21
22
18

2
1
3
1
3
6
21
27
36
38

1
3
4
3
2
3
2
3
3

56
65
58
60
59
47
47
32
23

42
34
40
37
36
52
49
66
74

1
1

2
1
2
3
4
1
4
2
2

Yes, Could See

Self Supporting
Marco Rubio
February 2016^ .........................
January 2016^ ...........................
December 2015^ .......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ................
October 15-18, 2015^ ................
September 2015^ ......................
July 2015^ .................................
June 2015^ ................................
April 2015^.................................
March 2015^ ..............................
Ted Cruz
February 2016^ .........................
January 2016^ ...........................
December 2015^ .......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ................
October 15-18, 2015^ ................
September 2015^ ......................
July 2015^ .................................
June 2015^ ................................
April 2015^.................................
March 2015^ ..............................
Ben Carson
February 2016^ .........................
January 2016^ ...........................
December 2015^ .......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ................
October 15-18, 2015^ ................
September 2015^ ......................
July 2015^ .................................
June 2015^ ................................
April 2015^.................................
March 2015^ ..............................
Donald Trump
February 2016^ .........................
January 2016^ ...........................
December 2015^ .......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ................
October 15-18, 2015^ ................
September 2015^ ......................
July 2015^ .................................
June 2015^ ................................
March 2015^ ..............................

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

February 2016

Study #16091 -- page 2

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

No, Could Not See

Self Supporting

Dont Know
Name

Not
Sure

49
28
22
28
26
34
30
25

41
52
53
46
45
44
31
30

7
18
22
22
23
20
36
42

3
2
3
4
6
2
3
3

46
42
45
45
51
55
57
75
70
49

53
55
53
52
44
43
40
22
27
42

1
1
1
1
1
2
1
4

1
2
2
2
4
1
2
1
2
5

Yes, Could See

Self Supporting
John Kasich
February 2016^ .........................
January 2016^ ...........................
December 2015^ .......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ................
October 15-18, 2015^ ................
September 2015^ ......................
July 2015^ .................................
June 2015^ ................................
Jeb Bush
February 2016^ ...................
January 2016^ ....................
December 2015^ ................
October 25-29, 2015^ .........
October 15-18, 2015^ .........
September 2015^ ...............
July 2015^ ..........................
June 2015^ .........................
April 2015^ ..........................
March 2015^ .......................
Q14

And, if the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates
would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-6)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT
ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your
second choice (RANDOMIZE REMAINING LIST FROM :1-6)?
FIRST CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

2/16^
Ted Cruz ..................................
28
Donald Trump ..........................
26
Marco Rubio ............................
17
John Kasich .............................
11
Ben Carson..............................
10
Jeb Bush..................................
4
Chris Christie ...........................
NA
Carly Fiorina ............................
NA
Rand Paul ................................
NA
Mike Huckabee ........................
NA
Rick Santorum .........................
NA
Jim Gilmore .............................
NA
Bobby Jindal ............................
NA
Lindsey Graham ......................
NA
George Pataki ..........................
NA
Scott Walker ............................
NA
Rick Perry ................................
NA
Other (VOL) ..........................
None (VOL) ..........................
1
Not sure ................................
3

1/16^
20
33
13
3
12
5
5
3
3
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
1

12/15^
22
27
15
2
11
7
3
5
2
3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3

10/2529/15^
10
23
11
3
29
8
3
3
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
3

10/1518/15^
9
25
13
3
22
8
1
7
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
5

9/15^
5
21
11
6
20
7
3
11
3
2
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
6

7/15^
9
19
5
3
10
14
3
6
6
1
1
15
3
1
4

6/15^
4
1
14
1
11
22
4
2
7
9
NA
1
17
5
1
1

4/15^
11
NA
18
NA
7
23
5
1
11
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
14
2
3

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

February 2016

Study #16091 -- page 3

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

COMBINED CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

2/16^
Ted Cruz.................................
45
Marco Rubio ...........................
40
Donald Trump.........................
38
Ben Carson ............................
26
John Kasich ............................
24
Jeb Bush ................................
16
Chris Christie ..........................
NA
Carly Fiorina ...........................
NA
Rand Paul...............................
NA
Mike Huckabee.......................
NA
Jim Gilmore ............................
NA
Rick Santorum ........................
NA
Bobby Jindal ...........................
NA
Lindsey Graham .....................
NA
George Pataki ........................
NA
Scott Walker ...........................
NA
Rick Perry ...............................
NA
Other (VOL) .........................
None (VOL) .........................
3
Not sure ...............................
4

1/16^
47
30
47
19
8
12
12
7
6
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2
2

12/15^
40
33
39
28
5
12
9
11
5
7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3
4

10/2529/15^
23
24
35
50
6
15
6
14
6
8
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
5

10/1518/15^
17
26
39
44
7
17
3
18
6
7
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
7

9/15^
11
26
31
35
8
19
5
28
6
8
3
1
NA
NA
3
7

7/15^
17
16
30
21
4
30
9
2
11
11
2
4
24
7
2
5

6/15^
11
34
4
19
1
40
10
3
16
18
NA
1
24
10
1
4

4/15^
18
41
NA
11
NA
37
14
3
20
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27
7
4

RECALCULATED THREE-WAY BALLOTS BASED ON SECOND VOTE PREFERENCE

Scenario #1
Scenario #2
Scenario #3
Scenario #4
Cruz .....................
32
Cruz ....................... 38
Cruz .....................
37
Cruz ......................
Trump ..................
30
Trump .................... 32
Trump...................
31
Trump ...................
Rubio ...................
26
Bush ...................... 9
Kasich .................
18
Carson ..................
Other candidate ...
7
Other candidate ..... 15
Other candidate
8
Other candidate ....

36
29
12
17

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

February 2016

Study #16091 -- page 4

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

(Q15-Q18 RANDOMIZED)
Q15
Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)

Donald Trump ................................................

Ted Cruz ........................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

Q16

2/16^
41
57
1
1

54
43
3
-

Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and John Kasich in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^
Donald Trump ................................................
John Kasich ...................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

Q19

1/16^
52
45
5
1

Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Jeb Bush in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^
Donald Trump ................................................
Jeb Bush ........................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

Q18

1/16^
43
51
5
1

Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)

Donald Trump ................................................

Marco Rubio...................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

Q17

2/16^
40
56
3
1

52
44
2
2

Which one of the following four candidate qualities matters most to you when it comes to your vote in the
Republican primary? Would it be a candidate who(RANDOMIZE) ^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Shares your values ...................................................................

Can bring needed change ........................................................
Tells it like it is ..........................................................................
Can win in November ...............................................................
Some other quality (VOL DO NOT SPECIFY) .....................
Not sure .................................................................................

35
26
22
16
1
-