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Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Adrian J. Shin
Department of Political Science, University of Michigan
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Student
Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE 0718128. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the National Science Foundation.
Government of the People?
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
wealthy democracies.
How does the xenophobic segment of native population
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Puzzle
Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Questions
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Questions
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Short Answers
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Short Answers
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Contributions
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Contributions
Theoretical
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Contributions
Empirical
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Assumptions
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Assumptions
and diversity.
Right-wing populist parties have the means to attain seats in
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic
voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic
voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic
voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic
voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Hypotheses
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Hypotheses
Testable Hypotheses
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Hypotheses
Testable Hypotheses
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Description
Discrimination based on nationality
Discrimination based on skills or income
Ease of naturalization or citizenship acquisition
Political, legal or welfare rights
Number of refugees allowed to enter
Provisions on refugees
Ease of getting an asylum
Provisions on asylum
Visas or government programs
Labor market restrictions for immigrants
Deportable offenses and administrative processes
Border enforcement or employment screening
Sponsorship by citizenship and restrictions
Special provisions for families
Percentage of population allowed to enter annually
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Nationality
Skill
Citizenship
Other Rights
Refugees
Asylum
Recruitment
Work Prohibitions
Deportation
Enforcement
Family Reunification
Quota
Factor 1
Immigration Policy
Factor
Scoring
Loadings
Coefficients
0.464
0.742
0.184
0.380
-0.668
-0.546
0.544
0.477
0.601
0.758
-0.682
0.609
0.117
0.186
0.046
0.095
-0.168
-0.137
0.137
0.120
0.151
0.190
-0.171
0.153
Factor 2
Immigrant Rights
Factor
Scoring
Loadings Coefficients
-0.058
0.033
0.623
0.725
0.436
0.440
0.096
0.535
0.465
-0.024
0.373
-0.280
-0.028
0.016
0.307
0.357
0.215
0.217
0.047
0.263
0.229
-0.012
0.184
-0.138
Uniqueness
0.782
0.448
0.578
0.330
0.364
0.509
0.694
0.487
0.424
0.425
0.396
0.551
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Alternative approaches:
Using the individual dimensions
Using average scores
Problems:
Countries use some tools, but not others.
These policy measures are sometimes negatively or positively
correlated within a country.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Alternative approaches:
Using the individual dimensions
Using average scores
Problems:
Countries use some tools, but not others.
These policy measures are sometimes negatively or positively
correlated within a country.
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Norway
1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010
Year
Quota
Skill
Nationality
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Canada
1950
1970
1990
20101950
1970
1990
2010
Year
Quota
Skill
Nationality
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Other Countries
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Austria
1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010
Year
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Sample Characteristics
Group
Former British
Colonies
European
Democracies
East Asia
Country
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Austria*
Belgium*
Denmark*
France
Germany
Ireland*
Netherlands
Norway*
Spain*
Sweden*
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Japan
Years Included
1950-2010
19502010
19502010
19502010
19502011
19502011
1950-2011
19502010
19502010
1950-2011
19502010
19502011
1977-2011
19502011
19502010
19502010
19502010
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Sample Characteristics
Group
Former British
Colonies
European
Democracies
East Asia
Country
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Austria*
Belgium*
Denmark*
France
Germany
Ireland*
Netherlands
Norway*
Spain*
Sweden*
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Japan
Years Included
1950-2010
19502010
19502010
19502010
19502011
19502011
1950-2011
19502010
19502010
1950-2011
19502010
19502011
1977-2011
19502011
19502010
19502010
19502010
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Data on Parties
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Data on Parties
Vote Share
Seat Share
1.000
0.9474
0.5207
1.000
0.5477
1.000
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Denmark
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
10
-2
30
-3
1
20
10
-1
-2
30
-3
1
20
-3
-2
10
-1
-1
20
30
Austria
1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010 1950
1970
1990
2010
Year
Immigration Policy Openness
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Empirical Model
Immigration Policyit =
0 + 1 Immigration Policyit 1 + 2 RWP Vote/Seat Shareit
P
+ nk =3 k Control Variable(k 2),it + i + t + it ,
OLS with panel-corrected standard errors
i : country fixed effects
t : year fixed effects
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Empirical Expectations
Immigration Policyit =
0 + 1 Immigration Policyit 1 + 2 RWP Vote/Seat Shareit
P
+ nk =3 k Control Variable(k 2),it + i + t + it ,
OLS with panel-corrected standard errors
i : country fixed effects
t : year fixed effects
Note: negative sign, positive sign
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
Outline
1 Introduction
Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions
2 Theory
Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon
Hypotheses
3 Data Sources
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
All Countries
Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1
(1)
1950-2011
(2)
1950-2011
(3)
1950-2000
(4)
1950-1995
0.922
0.924
0.917
(0.012)
(0.012)
(0.013)
0.905
(0.019)
-0.007
(0.001)
(0.001)
-0.090
(0.038)
-0.013
(0.136)
0.011
(0.022)
(0.002)
-0.068
(0.046)
-0.176
(0.221)
0.027
(0.040)
-0.000
(0.001)
-0.002
-0.002
-0.004
(0.003)
-0.081
(0.092)
GDP Growth
-0.322
(0.309)
Log of GDP per capita
0.015
(0.059)
Net Union Density
0.000
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008
(0.004)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.006
(0.004)
Observations
1000
1000
709
624
Countries
17
17
15
15
R2
0.976
0.976
0.974
0.972
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
Europe= 0:
RWP Vote Share
Europe= 1:
RWP Vote Share
(5)
1950-2011
(6)
1950-2011
(7)
1950-2000
(8)
1950-1995
0.922
(0.012)
-0.002+
0.924
(0.012)
0.903
(0.019)
-0.001
0.915
(0.013)
-0.003+
(0.001)
(0.001)
(0.002)
(0.003)
(0.001)
(0.001)
-0.105
(0.039)
-0.039
(0.139)
0.013
(0.022)
(0.002)
-0.076
(0.046)
-0.230
(0.221)
0.034
(0.040)
-0.000
(0.001)
-0.002
-0.003
-0.004
-0.003
-0.008
(0.004)
-0.112
(0.088)
GDP Growth
-0.385
(0.314)
Log of GDP per capita
0.020
(0.058)
Net Union Density
-0.000
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008+
(0.004)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.007
(0.004)
Observations
940
940
659
579
Countries
16
16
14
14
R2
0.975
0.976
0.974
0.973
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
An Alternative Mechanism
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
An Alternative Mechanism
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
An Alternative Mechanism
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
(9)
1950-2011
0.927
(0.013)
-0.003
(10)
1950-2011
0.924
(0.013)
-0.003+
(11)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)
-0.004
(12)
1950-1995
0.895
(0.024)
-0.007
(0.002)
(0.002)
(0.002)
(0.003)
0.001
0.000
-0.000
-0.001
(0.002)
(0.002)
-0.221
(0.086)
0.217
(0.199)
-0.084
(0.032)
(0.002)
-0.166
(0.157)
-0.292
(0.311)
-0.069
(0.074)
-0.001
(0.001)
(0.004)
-0.316
(0.245)
GDP Growth
-0.485
(0.420)
Log of GDP per capita
-0.101
(0.119)
Net Union Density
-0.001
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008+
(0.005)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.004
(0.005)
Observations
700
700
511
454
Countries
12
12
11
11
R2
0.976
0.976
0.975
0.973
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
(13)
1950-2011
0.928
(0.013)
(14)
1950-2011
0.926
(0.013)
(15)
1950-2000
0.917
(0.017)
(16)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)
-0.000
-0.001
-0.001
0.002
(0.001)
(0.001)
(0.003)
(0.004)
-0.005
(0.002)
-0.134
-0.165
(0.093)
(0.169)
(0.166)
GDP Growth
0.291
-0.203
-0.302
(0.201)
(0.305)
(0.310)
-0.215
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
(17)
1950-2011
0.926
(0.013)
0.002
(0.001)
-0.003
(0.003)
-0.000
(0.000)
(18)
1950-2011
0.923
(0.013)
0.001
(0.001)
-0.002
(0.002)
-0.000
(0.000)
-0.184
(0.085)
0.195
(0.196)
-0.092
(0.032)
(19)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)
0.001
(0.001)
-0.006
(0.004)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.179
(0.155)
-0.308
(0.313)
-0.072
(0.075)
-0.001
(0.001)
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Results
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Implications
Mainstream parties respond to right-wing populism by
data).
Ruling RWP parties have exhausted all policy options in
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Implications
Mainstream parties respond to right-wing populism by
data).
Ruling RWP parties have exhausted all policy options in
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
(21)
All
1950-2011
0.866
(0.015)
-0.003
(22)
All
1950-2011
0.892
(0.014)
-0.005
(23)
Europe
1950-2000
0.893
(0.025)
-0.003
(24)
Europe
1950-2000
0.872
(0.010)
-0.004
(0.002)
(0.001)
(0.002)
0.467
0.672
1.182
(0.148)
(0.172)
(0.132)
GDP Growth
0.545
0.282
0.249
(0.239)
(0.324)
(0.206)
Log of GDP per capita
0.174
-0.046
-0.079
(0.026)
(0.048)
(0.040)
Net Union Density
0.001
0.003
(0.001)
(0.001)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
0.001
0.003+
(0.002)
(0.001)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
0.006
0.004
(0.002)
(0.002)
Observations
1000
624
700
454
Countries
17
15
12
11
R2
0.966
0.979
0.982
0.986
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and + indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)
(0.001)
0.470
(0.074)
0.109
(0.305)
0.141
(0.043)
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Future Research
Adrian J. Shin
Introduction
Theory
Data Sources
Empirical Analysis
Conclusion
Future Research
Adrian J. Shin