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Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Government of the People?


Right-wing Populism and Immigration Policy

Adrian J. Shin
Department of Political Science, University of Michigan

Prepared for the MACIMIDE Migration Seminar


February 16, 2016

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Student
Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE 0718128. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the National Science Foundation.
Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Xenophobia and Immigration Policy

Prejudice toward immigrants has always been present across

wealthy democracies.
How does the xenophobic segment of native population

influence immigration policy?

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Puzzle

Existing Explanations
Labor unions (Briggs 2001)
After World War II, union density has been declining while
restrictions on immigration have emerged.
Unions have maintained divergent stances on immigration.
Right-wing populism (Swank and Betz 2003)
Most right-wing populist parties are excluded from coalition
governments.
The lack of data on immigration policy has prevented the
literature from testing the link between right-wing populism
and immigration policy formation.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Questions and Answers

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Questions and Answers

Questions

Do right-wing populist parties influence immigration policy

when excluded from coalition governments?


How do mainstream parties of coalition governments respond

to rising right-wing populism?

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Questions and Answers

Questions

Do right-wing populist parties influence immigration policy

when excluded from coalition governments?


How do mainstream parties of coalition governments respond

to rising right-wing populism?

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Questions and Answers

Short Answers

Right-wing populist parties have limited direct influence on

immigration policy when excluded from policy making.


Mainstream parties shift their stance on immigration policy

when a large number of voters support right-wing populist


parties because they seek to exclude right-wing populist parties
from coalition building (indirect influence).

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Questions and Answers

Short Answers

Right-wing populist parties have limited direct influence on

immigration policy when excluded from policy making.


Mainstream parties shift their stance on immigration policy

when a large number of voters support right-wing populist


parties because they seek to exclude right-wing populist parties
from coalition building (indirect influence).

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Contributions

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Contributions

Theoretical

An emphasis on the role of mainstream party strategies


Implications for the electoral success of niche parties

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Contributions

Empirical

A comprehensive dataset on national immigration policies

toward migrants from the developing world


Testing the relationship between right-wing populism and

low-skill immigration policy

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Assumptions

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Assumptions

Parties and Institutions

Right-wing populist parties are hostile to political compromise

and diversity.
Right-wing populist parties have the means to attain seats in

the national legislature.


Mainstream parties have vested interests in maintaining policy

stability and preserving existing rules of political discourse.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Immigration Policy as Mainstream Parties Weapon

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Immigration Policy as Mainstream Parties Weapon

Raison dtre of Right-wing Populist Parties

Right-wing populist parties exercise ownership on immigration

issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic

voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Immigration Policy as Mainstream Parties Weapon

Raison dtre of Right-wing Populist Parties

Right-wing populist parties exercise ownership on immigration

issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic

voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Immigration Policy as Mainstream Parties Weapon

Raison dtre of Right-wing Populist Parties

Right-wing populist parties exercise ownership on immigration

issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic

voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Immigration Policy as Mainstream Parties Weapon

Raison dtre of Right-wing Populist Parties

Right-wing populist parties exercise ownership on immigration

issues.
In theory, mainstream parties have two choices:
Accommodative strategy (policy convergence)
Adversarial strategy (policy divergence)
Mainstream parties restrict immigration to appease xenophobic

voters.
Less immigration Xenophobic voters focus on other issues.
Right-wing populist parties lose support base.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Hypotheses

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Hypotheses

Testable Hypotheses

H1: A rise in voter support for right-wing populism leads to

immigration policy restrictions.


H2: Center-right parties are more likely to restrict immigration

in response to right-wing populism.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Hypotheses

Testable Hypotheses

H1: A rise in voter support for right-wing populism leads to

immigration policy restrictions.


H2: Center-right parties are more likely to restrict immigration

in response to right-wing populism.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Immigration Policy Dimensions, Peters-Shin (2016)


Dimension
Universality by Nationality
Universality by Skill or Income
Citizenship
Immigrant Rights
Refugee
Refugee Provisions
Asylum
Asylum Provisions
Recruitment
Labor Prohibitions
Deportation
Enforcement
Family
Family Provisions
Quota

Government of the People?

Description
Discrimination based on nationality
Discrimination based on skills or income
Ease of naturalization or citizenship acquisition
Political, legal or welfare rights
Number of refugees allowed to enter
Provisions on refugees
Ease of getting an asylum
Provisions on asylum
Visas or government programs
Labor market restrictions for immigrants
Deportable offenses and administrative processes
Border enforcement or employment screening
Sponsorship by citizenship and restrictions
Special provisions for families
Percentage of population allowed to enter annually

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Factor Analysis based on Principal Components


Variable

Nationality
Skill
Citizenship
Other Rights
Refugees
Asylum
Recruitment
Work Prohibitions
Deportation
Enforcement
Family Reunification
Quota

Government of the People?

Factor 1
Immigration Policy
Factor
Scoring
Loadings
Coefficients
0.464
0.742
0.184
0.380
-0.668
-0.546
0.544
0.477
0.601
0.758
-0.682
0.609

0.117
0.186
0.046
0.095
-0.168
-0.137
0.137
0.120
0.151
0.190
-0.171
0.153

Factor 2
Immigrant Rights
Factor
Scoring
Loadings Coefficients
-0.058
0.033
0.623
0.725
0.436
0.440
0.096
0.535
0.465
-0.024
0.373
-0.280

-0.028
0.016
0.307
0.357
0.215
0.217
0.047
0.263
0.229
-0.012
0.184
-0.138

Uniqueness

0.782
0.448
0.578
0.330
0.364
0.509
0.694
0.487
0.424
0.425
0.396
0.551

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Why Factor Analysis?

Alternative approaches:
Using the individual dimensions
Using average scores
Problems:
Countries use some tools, but not others.
These policy measures are sometimes negatively or positively
correlated within a country.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Why Factor Analysis?

Alternative approaches:
Using the individual dimensions
Using average scores
Problems:
Countries use some tools, but not others.
These policy measures are sometimes negatively or positively
correlated within a country.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Countries Using Several Policy Measures


Sweden

Norway

1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010

Year
Quota
Skill

Government of the People?

Nationality

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Countries with Policy Measure Preferences


United States

Canada

1950

1970

1990

20101950

1970

1990

2010

Year
Quota
Skill

Government of the People?

Nationality

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Other Countries
Belgium

Denmark

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Austria

1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010

Year

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

How to Construct Immigration Policy Index

Goodman, Sara Wallace (2015) Conceptualizing and Measuring


Citizenship and Integration Policy Past Lessons and New
Approaches, Comparative Political Studies.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Sample Characteristics
Group
Former British
Colonies

European
Democracies

East Asia

Government of the People?

Country
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Austria*
Belgium*
Denmark*
France
Germany
Ireland*
Netherlands
Norway*
Spain*
Sweden*
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Japan

Years Included
1950-2010
19502010
19502010
19502010
19502011
19502011
1950-2011
19502010
19502010
1950-2011
19502010
19502011
1977-2011
19502011
19502010
19502010
19502010

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Immigration Policy

Sample Characteristics
Group
Former British
Colonies

European
Democracies

East Asia

Government of the People?

Country
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Austria*
Belgium*
Denmark*
France
Germany
Ireland*
Netherlands
Norway*
Spain*
Sweden*
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Japan

Years Included
1950-2010
19502010
19502010
19502010
19502011
19502011
1950-2011
19502010
19502010
1950-2011
19502010
19502011
1977-2011
19502011
19502010
19502010
19502010

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Parties

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Data on Parties

Comparative Political Parties Dataset by Swank

Table: Right-wing Populism Correlation


Vote Share
Seat Share
Governing Seat Share

Government of the People?

Vote Share

Seat Share

Government Seat Share

1.000
0.9474
0.5207

1.000
0.5477

1.000

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Overview of the Data

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Overview of the Data

Western European Countries


Belgium

Denmark

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

10

-2

30

-3
1

20

10

-1
-2

30

-3
1

20

-3

-2

10

-1

Immigration Policy Openness

-1

20

30

Austria

1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010 1950

1970

1990

2010

Year
Immigration Policy Openness

Government of the People?

Right-wing Populism Vote Share

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Model and Expectations

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Model and Expectations

Empirical Model

Immigration Policyit =
0 + 1 Immigration Policyit 1 + 2 RWP Vote/Seat Shareit

P
+ nk =3 k Control Variable(k 2),it + i + t + it ,
OLS with panel-corrected standard errors
i : country fixed effects
t : year fixed effects

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Model and Expectations

Empirical Expectations

Immigration Policyit =
0 + 1 Immigration Policyit 1 + 2 RWP Vote/Seat Shareit

P
+ nk =3 k Control Variable(k 2),it + i + t + it ,
OLS with panel-corrected standard errors
i : country fixed effects
t : year fixed effects
Note: negative sign, positive sign

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

Outline

1 Introduction

Puzzle
Questions and Answers
Contributions

2 Theory

Assumptions
Immigration Policy as
Mainstream Parties Weapon

Government of the People?

Hypotheses

3 Data Sources

Data on Immigration Policy


Data on Parties
Overview of the Data
4 Empirical Analysis
Model and Expectations
Results
5 Conclusion

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

All Countries
Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1

RWP Vote Share

(1)
1950-2011

(2)
1950-2011

(3)
1950-2000

(4)
1950-1995

0.922

0.924

0.917

(0.012)

(0.012)

(0.013)

0.905
(0.019)
-0.007

(0.001)

(0.001)
-0.090
(0.038)
-0.013
(0.136)
0.011
(0.022)

(0.002)
-0.068
(0.046)
-0.176
(0.221)
0.027
(0.040)
-0.000
(0.001)

-0.002

-0.002

-0.004

(0.003)
-0.081
(0.092)
GDP Growth
-0.322
(0.309)
Log of GDP per capita
0.015
(0.059)
Net Union Density
0.000
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008
(0.004)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.006
(0.004)
Observations
1000
1000
709
624
Countries
17
17
15
15
R2
0.976
0.976
0.974
0.972
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

Europe and Non-Europe except USA


Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1

Europe= 0:
RWP Vote Share
Europe= 1:
RWP Vote Share

(5)
1950-2011

(6)
1950-2011

(7)
1950-2000

(8)
1950-1995

0.922
(0.012)
-0.002+

0.924
(0.012)

0.903
(0.019)

-0.001

0.915
(0.013)
-0.003+

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.001)

(0.001)
-0.105
(0.039)
-0.039
(0.139)
0.013
(0.022)

(0.002)
-0.076
(0.046)
-0.230
(0.221)
0.034
(0.040)
-0.000
(0.001)

-0.002

-0.003

-0.004

-0.003
-0.008

(0.004)
-0.112
(0.088)
GDP Growth
-0.385
(0.314)
Log of GDP per capita
0.020
(0.058)
Net Union Density
-0.000
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008+
(0.004)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.007
(0.004)
Observations
940
940
659
579
Countries
16
16
14
14
R2
0.975
0.976
0.974
0.973
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

An Alternative Mechanism

Right-wing populist parties support mainstream parties in

exchange for restrictive immigration policy.


If this is true, we should observe some negative correlation

between right-wing populist seat share and immigration policy


openness.
We do not observe this.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

An Alternative Mechanism

Right-wing populist parties support mainstream parties in

exchange for restrictive immigration policy.


If this is true, we should observe some negative correlation

between right-wing populist seat share and immigration policy


openness.
We do not observe this.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

An Alternative Mechanism

Right-wing populist parties support mainstream parties in

exchange for restrictive immigration policy.


If this is true, we should observe some negative correlation

between right-wing populist seat share and immigration policy


openness.
We do not observe this.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

RWP Vote Share vs. Seat Share in Europe


Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1

RWP Vote Share


RWP Seat Share

(9)
1950-2011
0.927
(0.013)
-0.003

(10)
1950-2011
0.924
(0.013)
-0.003+

(11)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)
-0.004

(12)
1950-1995
0.895
(0.024)
-0.007

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.003)

0.001

0.000

-0.000

-0.001

(0.002)

(0.002)
-0.221
(0.086)
0.217
(0.199)
-0.084
(0.032)

(0.002)
-0.166
(0.157)
-0.292
(0.311)
-0.069
(0.074)
-0.001
(0.001)

(0.004)
-0.316
(0.245)
GDP Growth
-0.485
(0.420)
Log of GDP per capita
-0.101
(0.119)
Net Union Density
-0.001
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008+
(0.005)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.004
(0.005)
Observations
700
700
511
454
Countries
12
12
11
11
R2
0.976
0.976
0.975
0.973
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

RWP in Coalition Governments


Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1

RWP Seat Share


(Government)
RWP Vote Share

(13)
1950-2011
0.928
(0.013)

(14)
1950-2011
0.926
(0.013)

(15)
1950-2000
0.917
(0.017)

(16)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)

-0.000

-0.001

-0.001

0.002

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.003)

(0.004)

-0.005

(0.002)
-0.134
-0.165
(0.093)
(0.169)
(0.166)
GDP Growth
0.291
-0.203
-0.302
(0.201)
(0.305)
(0.310)

Log of GDP per capita


-0.077
-0.102
-0.049
(0.033)
(0.076)
(0.077)
Net Union Density
-0.000
-0.001
(0.001)
(0.001)
Observations
700
700
511
511
Countries
12
12
11
11
2
R
0.975
0.976
0.974
0.975
+
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)

Government of the People?

-0.215

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

Center-right Mainstream Parties in Europe


(20)
1950-2000
0.896
(0.024)
CR Seat Share
0.000
(0.001)
RWP Vote Share
-0.010
(0.007)
CR Seat Share RWP
0.000
Vote Share
(0.000)
ln(Population)
-0.345
(0.246)
GDP Growth
-0.474
(0.420)
Log of GDP per capita
-0.100
(0.119)
Net Union Density
-0.001
(0.002)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
-0.008
(0.005)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
-0.004
(0.005)
Observations
700
700
511
454
Countries
12
12
11
11
R2
0.976
0.976
0.975
0.973
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and + indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
Government of the People?
Adrian J. Shin
Years Included
Immigration Policyt 1

(17)
1950-2011
0.926
(0.013)
0.002
(0.001)
-0.003
(0.003)
-0.000
(0.000)

(18)
1950-2011
0.923
(0.013)
0.001
(0.001)
-0.002
(0.002)
-0.000
(0.000)
-0.184
(0.085)
0.195
(0.196)
-0.092
(0.032)

(19)
1950-2000
0.910
(0.017)
0.001
(0.001)
-0.006
(0.004)
0.000
(0.000)
-0.179
(0.155)
-0.308
(0.313)
-0.072
(0.075)
-0.001
(0.001)

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Results

Center-right Mainstream Parties in Europe


(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
19501950195019502011
2011
2000
2000
Immigration Policyt 1 0.926 0.923 0.910 0.896
(0.013)
(0.013)
(0.017)
(0.024)
CR Seat Share 0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
(0.001)
(0.001)
(0.001)
(0.001)
RWP Vote Share -0.003
-0.002
-0.006
-0.010
(0.003)
(0.002)
(0.004)
(0.007)
CR Seat Share RWP -0.000
-0.000
0.000
0.000
Vote Share (0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
Observations 700
700
511
454
Countries 12
12
11
11
R2 0.976
0.976
0.975
0.973
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, *
and + indicate statistical significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent,
respectively. Country and year fixed effects are included in all models.
Years Included

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Implications
Mainstream parties respond to right-wing populism by

implementing restrictive immigration policy (e.g. Meguid


2005).
Ruling right-wing populist parties do not restrict immigration
policy.
Little variation in ruling RWP parties prior to 1995 (blame the

data).
Ruling RWP parties have exhausted all policy options in

restricting immigration policy on their way into government


coalition.
Ruling RWP parties may face some constraints once they
come into power.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Implications
Mainstream parties respond to right-wing populism by

implementing restrictive immigration policy (e.g. Meguid


2005).
Ruling right-wing populist parties do not restrict immigration
policy.
Little variation in ruling RWP parties prior to 1995 (blame the

data).
Ruling RWP parties have exhausted all policy options in

restricting immigration policy on their way into government


coalition.
Ruling RWP parties may face some constraints once they
come into power.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

An Extension: Refugee Policy


Region
Years Included
Refugee Policyt 1

RWP Vote Share

(21)
All
1950-2011
0.866
(0.015)
-0.003

(22)
All
1950-2011
0.892
(0.014)
-0.005

(23)
Europe
1950-2000
0.893
(0.025)
-0.003

(24)
Europe
1950-2000
0.872
(0.010)
-0.004

(0.002)
(0.001)
(0.002)
0.467
0.672
1.182
(0.148)
(0.172)
(0.132)
GDP Growth
0.545
0.282
0.249
(0.239)
(0.324)
(0.206)
Log of GDP per capita
0.174
-0.046
-0.079
(0.026)
(0.048)
(0.040)
Net Union Density
0.001
0.003
(0.001)
(0.001)
Income Taxes as % of GDP
0.001
0.003+
(0.002)
(0.001)
Welfare Taxes as % of GDP
0.006
0.004
(0.002)
(0.002)
Observations
1000
624
700
454
Countries
17
15
12
11
R2
0.966
0.979
0.982
0.986
Panel-corrected standard errors are shown in parentheses. ***, **, * and + indicate statistical
significance levels of .1, 1, 5 and 10 percent, respectively. Country and year fixed effects are
included in all models.
ln(Population)

Government of the People?

(0.001)
0.470
(0.074)
0.109
(0.305)
0.141
(0.043)

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Future Research

Examine the effect of immigration (policy) on right-wing

populist parties electoral success.


Explore the mechanisms on why right-wing parties do not

restrict immigration policy when they govern.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

Introduction

Theory

Data Sources

Empirical Analysis

Conclusion

Future Research

Examine the effect of immigration (policy) on right-wing

populist parties electoral success.


Explore the mechanisms on why right-wing parties do not

restrict immigration policy when they govern.

Government of the People?

Adrian J. Shin

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