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UNCERTAINTY TERMS
Several concepts and terms are somewhat
confusing when statisticians discuss uncertainty.
To ensure clarity, the following terms are
described to eliminate confusion.
The reader should understand that two terms,
subject to interpretation by the statistician, are
critical in assessing the uncertainty correlated
(or partially correlated) and uncorrelated. Most
disagreements in uncertainties are based on the
assumptions surrounding these terms and their
application in estimating the uncertainty (U95 or
95
U ).
Loss Performance
Annual loss control performance for
maintained systems is as follows
95
Roadmap of Uncertainty
All flowmeters have a roadmap for uncertainty
estimations.
MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY
Measurement uncertainty (or accuracy) has
systematic and random errors. Even the most
accurate measurement facility has uncertainty.
S o u rc e s o f U n c e rta in ty
fo r
F lo w m e te rs
C o pyrig ht 2 0 01
C a lib ra tio n S ta n d a rd
P re d ic tiv e P ro p e rtie s
E m p iric a l M e te r F a c to rs
C a lib ra tio n S ta n d a rd s
F lu id P ro p e rtie s
P rim a ry E le m e n t
S e c o n d a ry D e v ic e s
D e fic ie n c ie s o f
G e o m e tric S im ila rity
re s u lt in
D e fic ie n c ie s o f
D yn a m ic S im ila rity
T e rtia ry D e v ic e s
re s u lt in
flo w d is tu rb a n c e s
s w irl
a s ym m e try
im p ro p e r tu rb u le n c e
0.0050
0.0040
0.0030
0.0020
Error
0.0010
0.0000
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
-0.0010
-0.0020
-0.0030
-0.0040
-0.0050
Velocity (ft/sec)
Liquid Application
95
For liquid applications, the uncertainty (U ) is
usually 0.020% for a pipe prover.
Secondary Device
Uncertainty
and
Fluid
Density
EXAMPLES
OF
FLOWMETER
UNCERTAINTIES in Natural Gas Service
Liquid Application
For secondary devices (Pf, Tf, APIobs, Tobs, flow
weighted sampling) employed in the prediction of
95
fluid density (tp, b), the secondary devices U
is not the value introduced into the mass flow
The value
uncertainty equation (qm/qm).
introduced into the mass flow uncertainty
equation is the error of the fluids flowing density
(tp/tp) due to the error of associated with each
secondary device that is employed in the fluid
density.
Parallel Flowmeters
In statistics, there is an assumption concerning
the normal distribution of bias errors. The
assumption states that the bias errors for each
(1,6,7,8,9)
Ultrasonic
Ultrasonic
Ultrasonic
(2,6,7,8,9)
Ultrasonic
Ultrasonic
Ultrasonic
(3,6,7,8,9)
Turbine
Turbine
Turbine
(4,6,7,8,9)
Rotary Displacement
Rotary Displacement
Rotary Displacement
(5,6,7,8,9)
Parallel
Meters
U95
(%)
1
2
3
4
0.49
0.41
0.37
0.35
1
2
3
0.77
0.65
0.60
1
2
3
0.40
0.35
0.33
1
2
3
0.59
0.51
0.47
1
2
3
1.05
0.89
0.81
(1,6,7,8,9)
(1,6,7,8,9)
(1,6,7,8,9)
(2,6,7,8,9)
(2,6,7,8,9)
(3,6,7,8,9)
(3,6,7,8,9)
(4,6,7,8,9)
(4,6,7,8,9)
(5,6,7,8,9)
(5,6,7,8,9)
Notes:
(1) Assumes dual chamber orifice fitting Cd/Cd per AGA Reoprt No. 3
(2) Assumes multipath ultrasonic MF/MF of + 0.70% per AGA9 without linearization
(3) Assumes multipath ultrasonic MF/MF of + 0.25% per AGA9 with linearization
(4) Assumes gas turbine MF/MF of + 0.50% per ISO 9951 without linearization
(5) Assumes rotary displacement MF/MF of + 1.00% without linearization
(6) Assumes GOM Outlet of Gas Plant composition
(7) Pf of 985 psig and Pf/Pf of + 1.3 psig, then tp/tp is + 0.15%.
(8) Tf of 70 F and T f/Tf of + 0.2 degF, then tp/tp is + 0.06%.
(9) Assumes online GC or flow weighted sampling system, then tp/tp is + 0.25%.
STATISTICAL WEIGHTING
Statistical weighting is a tool to optimize the
investment of resources (CAPEX and OPEX)
and manage the fiscal exposure to an
acceptable level for the business.
Stated
another way, it identifies to management how to
optimize the investment of resources (CAPEX)
to achieve managements strategic level of loss
performance.
In addition, it identifies to
To
understand
the
system
uncertainty
associated with the global population of
measurement points, the statistician or engineer
assembles the global population into subgroups
of receipts, deliveries and inventory. For a
transmission system, gas gathering system, gas
distribution system and gas processing plant
there are three distinct subgroups of the global
population
Step Four
The statistician calculates the weighting
factor based on the portion of the
monthly or yearly fraction of the total
mass receipts.
Step Five
Delivery Subgroup
Step One
Receipt Subgroup
Step Six
The statistician calculates the U95 for
each delivery point based on the
selected
equipments
performance
(primary, secondary and tertiary devices)
and the number of parallel flowmeters.
The statistician assumes the variables
are controlled and each measurement
point exhibits an insignificant bias error.
This assumes that the selected
equipment conform to the appropriate
measurement standards.
Step Seven
The statistician obtains the mass
flowrate through each delivery point on a
monthly or yearly basis.
Step Two
The statistician calculates the U95 for
each receipt point based on the
selected equipments performance
(primary, secondary and tertiary
devices) and the number of parallel
flowmeters. The statistician assumes
the variables are controlled and each
measurement
point
exhibits
an
insignificant bias error. This assumes
that the selected equipment conform to
the
appropriate
measurement
standards.
Step Eight
The statistician calculates the weighting
factor based on the portion of the
monthly or yearly fraction of the total
mass deliveries.
Step Nine
The statistician assembles all inventory
facilities as a subgroup (pipelines,
pipeline sections, and storage facilities).
9
Inventory Subgroup
Step Ten
Step Eleven
Point
R-4
R-3
R-2
R-5
R-6
R-1
R-7
Type
Orifice
Orifice
Orifice
MUSM
MUSM
MUSM
MUSM
Flowmeter
No.
Nom. D
4
12" (300 mm)
3
10" (250 mm)
3
10" (250 mm)
1
10" (250 mm)
1
6" (150 mm)
1
6" (150 mm)
1
4" (100 mm)
Receipts - Monthly
U95
Qvb
%
MM SCF
0.35
14,618
0.37
7,871
0.37
4,947
0.40
2,924
0.40
1,687
0.40
1,124
0.40
562
0.37
Point
D-4
D-3
D-5
D-2
D-6
D-7
D-1
Type
Orifice
MUSM
MUSM
Orifice
MUSM
MUSM
Turbine
Flowmeter
No.
Nom. D
4
12" (300 mm)
2
10" (250 mm)
1
10" (250 mm)
2
10" (250 mm)
1
4" (100 mm)
1
4" (100 mm)
1
4" (100 mm)
33,733
Qm
Weighting
MM lbms
fraction
650
0.43
350
0.23
220
0.15
130
0.09
75
0.05
50
0.03
25
0.02
1,500
Deliveries - Monthly
U95
Qvb
Qm
Weighting
%
MM SCF MM lbms
fraction
0.35
13,156
585
0.39
0.35
9,558
425
0.28
0.40
5,397
240
0.16
0.41
3,936
175
0.12
0.40
787
35
0.02
0.40
562
25
0.02
0.59
337
15
0.01
0.37
33,733
1,500
U95
MM SCF
51.16
29.12
18.31
11.69
6.75
4.50
2.25
U95
MM lbms
2.28
1.30
0.81
0.52
0.30
0.20
0.10
123.78
5.50
U95
MM SCF
46.05
33.45
21.59
16.14
3.15
2.25
1.99
U95
MM lbms
2.05
1.49
0.96
0.72
0.14
0.10
0.09
124.61
5.54
10
Daily
Qvb
MM SCF
487.25
262.37
164.92
97.45
56.22
37.48
18.74
Daily
Qvb
MM SCF
438.53
318.59
179.91
131.18
26.24
18.74
11.24