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Probability

3
Exam Paper

Assessment Standard: 11.4.2

a)




Correctly identify dependent and


independent events (e.g .: from two way
contingency tables or Venn - Diagrams)
and therefore appreciate when it is
appropriate to calculate the probability
of two independent events:

P(A and B) = P(A). P(B)

b)


Use Tree and Venn - Diagrams to


solve probability problems
(where events are not necessarily
independent)

Over the next two weeks we will give you a


brief review of PROBABILITY from Grade 11.
Remember that about 50% - 60% of the
Examination is set on Descriptive Statistics
and Probability. A lot of the Probability was done
in Grade 11.

Collect your Paper 3 Lessons every week!!


Guys, both NSC and IEB examinations
candidates have the option of writing Paper 3 at the
end of the year! Paper 3 covers additional
mathematics material and is out of 100 marks. Maths
Paper 3 will really set you apart in the job market,
and make studying technical subjects at tertiary level
easier. We have hooked you up with these lessons
- written by IEB Maths
Paper 3 examiner Heather Frankiskos. Though the
lessons apply to both IEB and NSC candidates,where
there are differences, we will point them out! The
lesson this week applies to candidates from both
examining bodies. Give it a go!

So recall the following:


PROBABILITY is the likelihood of something happening or being true.

A PROBABILITY is assigned a value between 0 (the impossible) and 1 (absolutely certain)


even chance
0

__
1

The PROBABILITIES of the possible outcomes in a sample space must sum up to 1.

Lets see if you can do these basic probabilities without any fancy techniques:
1. A regular die is rolled. Find:
1
a) P(1) - (the probability of getting a 1) = _
6


b) P (7) - (the probability of getting a 7) = 0


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Probability

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Exam Paper

1 _
1 _
1
c) P (3 or 4) - (the probability of getting a 3 or 4 ) =__
6+ 6 = 3

1 5
6
d) P (not a 2) = 1- _
6 = _

3 1
2
e) P (even) = _
6 = _

2. A card is drawn from a normal pack of 52 cards (No jokers included) Find:
A
A
4
1
13
a) P (Ace) = __
52= __
13 1
4
b) P (Heart) = __
52= _
16 4
13
c) P (Ace or a Heart) = __
52= __
A
A
1
__
d) P (Ace and a Heart) = 52
A

1
e) P (Red) = _
2

Remember that if A is an event, then A is called the complement of A, and means not A.
Also P(A) + P(A) = 1

4
So P(Heart) = __
52

48
P (Heart) = P (not a heart) = __
52

4 48
52= 1
and __
52+ __

Two events which have no outcomes in common are called MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE events.

For example:

1) P(Heart) and P(Diamond) are mutually exclusive

2) P (roll a 1) and P (roll a 3) are mutually exclusive

NB: For mutually exclusive events


P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B)

1) P (Heart or Diamond)

= P(Heart) + P(Diamond)

13 13
52
= __
52+ __

26
= __
52

1
= _
2

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Probability

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Exam Paper
11) P (roll a 1 or roll a 3)

= P (roll a1) + P (roll a 3)

1 1
6
=_
6 + _

= 2/6

1
=_
3

But what would happen if we wanted




P (King or a Heart)?
4
P (King) = __
52
13
P (Heart) = __
52

Now can you see that the card King of Hearts (which is a heart and a king has been counted into both
categories (so counted in twice)

so P (King or Heart) = P (King) + P (Heart) - P (King of Hearts)

4 13 __
1
52- 52
= __
52+ __
16
= __
52
4
= __
13

So if events are NOT mutually exclusive

then P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A and B)

We have to subtract off the overlap or intersection.


So, if we roll a single die what is the probability of getting a prime number or an even number?
3 1
2 { 2 ; 3; 5}
P (Prime) = _
6 = _

3 1
2 { 2 ; 4; 6}
P (Even) = _
6 = _

5
1 __
1 _
1 _

=
P (Prime or Even) = _
2 2 6 6
Clearly the only number not allowed is the number 1.
We can also see this in a Venn-Diagram

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Probability

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Exam Paper

250

M a t hs
130

Science
80

30

10

A random pupil is selected from 250 grade 11s. Find:


a)

Probability that he/she takes Maths

210
P (Maths) = ___
250= 0,84

b) Probability that he /she takes Maths or Science


P (Maths) + P (Science) - P (Maths and Science)

80
210 110 ___
250- 250
= ___
250+ ___
240
= ___
250 Must subtract off P (MS) - the intersection

= 0,96

Sometimes we are interested not in one outcome, but in two or three or more of them. For example, we
may toss a coin twice, or select two or 3 cards from a pack or take 3 beads from a bag containing
different colours
Drawing up a TREE DIAGRAM is usually useful to assist with these kinds of problems
Example 1
A coin is tossed and H or T is recorded. Find the probability of getting two heads and a tail (this means
in any order)

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Probability

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Exam Paper
Toss 1

Toss 2

Toss 3
P(H)

P(H)

_
1

_
1

P(Head)

P(T)

_
1

P(T)
P(H)

P(T)
P(H)

_
1

1
__
(H; H; H)
8

_
1

(H; H; T) __1

_
1

1
__
(H; T; H)
8

1
__
(H; T; T)
8

_
1

_
1

P(Tail)

_
1

P(H)

P(T)

_
1

_
1

3
\ P (two heads and a tail) = __
18 + __
18 + __
18 = __
8

P(T)
P(H)

1
__
(T; H; H)
8

_
1

1
__
(T; H; T)
8

_
1

1
__
(T; T; H)

_
1

1
__
(T;T; T)
8

P(T)

Example 2

Draw two cards from a normal pack with replacement


1) Find probability of two Kings
2) Find probability of one King

Draw 1

Draw 2
__
4

P (King)

P (not a King)

P (King)

4
__

52

1
(K;K) = ___
169

48
__

12
(K; not K) = ___
169

4
__

52

12
(not K;K) = ___
169

48
__

144
(not K; not K) = ___
169

52


P (Not a King) 52
P (King)
48
__

52

P (Not a King)

52

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Probability

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Exam Paper
1
1) P (K;K) = ___
169

12
24
12
169= ___
169= 0,142
2) P (one King) = ___
169+ ___

Can you see in the previous two examples when we came to toss the coin the second time or draw the
second card - there was no effect of the first result on the second? When this happens the two events
are said to be INDEPENDENT
For two INDEPENDENT events
P (A and B) = P (A). P (B)
So these are INDEPENDENT EVENTS:
1) Toss a coin twice
2) Toss a die four (or however many) times
3) Toss a coin, roll a die
4) Pick cards from a pack WITH replacement
5) Choose sweets from a bag WITH replacement

Question 1

P (A) = 0,2

P (B) = 0,5

P (AB) (which means P(A or B)) = 0,6

a) Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Motivate


b) Are events A and B independent? Motivate
a) P (AB) P (A) + P (B); so not mutually exclusive
b) P (AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A and B)

0,6 = 0,2 + 0,5 - P (A and B)

P (A and B) = 0,7 - 0,6

P (A and B) = 0,1

but P (A). P (B) = 0,2 x 0,5 =0,1 \ are independent

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Probability

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Exam Paper
Example 2

A weather forecaster classifies all days as either wet or dry. He claims that the probability that 1 September
will be wet is 0,4. If any particular day in September is wet, the probability that the next day is wet is 0,5;
otherwise the probability that the next day is wet is 0,3. Find the probability that:

1 Sep

2 Sep
P (wet)

0,5

0,4
P (wet)
P (dry)

Key
0,5

0,7
P (dry)
0,6
P (wet)

(1 - 0,4)

= P (dry)

= 0,6
(1 - 0,3)

= P (second day dry)

= 0,7

0,3

a) The first two days in September are wet


b) September 2nd is wet
a) 0,4 x 0,5 = 0,2 [(W;W)]
b) 0,4 x 0,5 + 0,6 x 0,3 [(W;W) or (D; W)]

= 0,38

and P (W,W) + P (W,D) + P (D, W) + P (D,D)


= 0,2 + 0,2 + 0,42 + 0,18
=1

Example 3
P (A) = 0,25 and P (B) = 0,5 and P (A and B) = 0,15
a) Are events A and B independent?
b) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?

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Probability

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Exam Paper
a) P(A) x P (B) = 0,25 x 0,5 = 0,125

P (A and B) = 0,15

so 0,125 0,15 NOT independent

b) no since P (A or B) = P(A) + P (B) - P (A and B)


P (A) + P (B)

Example 4
Another way that we use to decide on Independence is by using a CONTINGENCY TABLE
4a) Let us look at this table which gives information about Males and Females and whether they prefer

Red, Blue or Yellow
Male
Female
Total

Red
20
50
70

Blue
40
20
60

Yellow
50
20
70

Total
110
90
200

This is called a two-way 2x3 Contingency Table . It has 2 rows and 3 columns.
Can you see that we could get the following from the table?
110

1) P (Male) = ___
200= 0,55
60
2) P (Blue) = ___
200= 0,3

40
3) P (Blue and Male) = ___
200= 0,2

60 110 ___
40 130
200- 200= ___
200
= 0,65
4) P (Blue or Male) = ___
200+ ___

They are NOT mutually exclusive


5) Are the events being Male and preferring Blue independent or not?
P (Blue and Male) = 0,2
60 110 ___
33
200= 200= 0,165
P (Blue) x P (Male) = ___
200x ___
They are NOT independent
6) Are the events being Female and preferring Red independent or not?
50
P (Female and Red) = ___
200= 0,25

70
90
63
200= ___
400= 0,1575
P (Female) x P (Red) = ___
200x ___

They are NOT independent

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Exam Paper

Probability

4b) Research with regard to the effects of a new headache tablet involving 100 males and 80 females

showed that 60 males and 50 females responded positively to the tablet. Can we conclude that the

success of the tablet is independent of gender?
Positive
Not Positive
Total

Male
60
40
100

Female
50
30
80

Total
110
70
180

100
P (Male) = ___
180

80
P (Female) = ___
180

110
P (Positive) = ___
180

70
P (not Positive) = ___
180

60
P (Male and Positive) = ___
180= 0,3

100 ___
110
P (Male) x P (Positive) = ___
180x 180= 0,34

Mathematically these are NOT independent


(OR)
50
P (Female and Positive) = ___
180= 0,27

80 110
180= 0,2716
P (Female) x P (Positive) = ___
180x ___

There is a slight difference so they are still NOT independent


So now we have seen the multiplication law for INDEPENDENT events.
But what happens if we were to draw two cards from a pack and NOT put the first one back before we
took the second one? (This is called WITHOUT replacement)
It is very important to realise that because we do not put the first card back, we are now going to draw the
second card from a smaller sample and the next outcome is influenced by (depends on) what happened in
the first.
4
So if we draw the first card P (King) = __
52
Having removed one King and not replaced it means that there are now only 3 Kings in the remaining 51
3
cards so the probability of the second card also being a King is __
51
So the Probability of two Kings in two successive draws of a pack of cards WITHOUT replacement is
3
4 __
P (King and King) = __
52x 51

1
= ___
221

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Probability

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Exam Paper

So what if we drew two cards and wanted the probability of one King.? The tree diagram would look as
follows:
1st Draw

2nd Draw
P (King)
__
4

3
__

51

52

P (King)

P (not King)

48
__
P (not King)

51

P (King)

4
__

51

48
__

52

P (not King)

47
__

51

So the Probability of one King means


= P (King followed by not King) or P (not King followed by King)

= 4/52 x 48/51 + 48/52 x 4/51

32
= ___
221

3 ___
4 __
1
Please note: P (K,K) = __
52x 51= 221
48 ___
16
4 __

P (K, not K) = __
52x 51= 221
48 __
16
4 ___

P (not K; K)
= __
52x 51= 221
47 ___
48 __
188

P (not K; not K) = __
52x 51= 221
16 ___
16 ___
188 ____
221
1
___
now ___
221+ 221+ 221+ 221=221= 1

A method that we can use to help us organise the relationships between events so that we can make
conclusions about probabilities, mutually exclusive and / or independence is called a VENN-DIAGRAM.
The best way to get to understand how useful they are is with an example or two:
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Probability

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Exam Paper
Example 1

Given P(A) = 0,7; P (B) = 0,4 and P (AB) = 0,28


Find out:
a) P (AB)
b) whether A and B are independent

Best way to solve this is draw a picture:

B
x

0,28 y

now

x + 0,28 = 0,7

x = 0,42

and

y + 0,28 = 0,4

y = 0,12

a) Here P (AB) = P (A or B) = 0,42 + 0,28 + 0,12 = 0,82


so P (AB) = 1-0,82 = 0,18

b) P (A) x P (B) = 0,7 x 0,4 = 0,28


P (AB) = 0,28

so they are independent events

Sometimes we get given the picture organiser and we are asked to interpret it.

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Probability

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Exam Paper

R
12
54

108
36
6

18
134
97
J

Example 2
A survey was conducted to determine the preferences for three different music types
Rock (R), Classic (C), Jazz (J)
1) How many people were surveyed?
2) How many people preferred Rock (R) only?
3) What percentage of people surveyed like all three types?
4) What percentage liked Rock (R) or Classic (C)?
5) 134 do not like music at all. Is this statement true or false? Motivate your answer.
6) Find P (RC)

1) 465
2) 108
36
3) ___
465= 0,0774 = 7,74%
234
108 + 12+ 36 + 6 + 54 + 18 ___
4) ____________________

= = 0,503 = 50,3%
46

465
5) False. They may well like other kinds of music - they just dont like these three.
97+134 ___
77
= 155= 0,4968

6) ______
465
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