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2016
10
Introduction
Global
fundamentals
16
Meeting
growing demand
17 Transportation
The Outlook
for Energy:
A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy is our
long-term global view of energy
demand and supply. Its findings
help guide our long-term
investments, and we share
The Outlook to help promote
better understanding of the issues
shaping the worlds energy future.
48
54
70
Lowering
emissions
Fulfilling
future supply
Energy today
and tomorrow
58 Liquids
72 Data
64 Natural gas
78 Glossary
Energy today
Another positive trend is our ability to find ways to use energy far more
efficiently, curbing growth in energy usage and emissions. The world uses
about 10 percent less energy per unit of economic output than it did in
2000, with half of this gain occurring since 2010.
Still, the need for energy remains vast. Global demand for energy rose
by about one-third from 2000 to 2014, with China accounting for about
half of this growth.
Meeting growing energy demand is an ongoing challenge, recognizing
the scale of supplies required to meet the needs of 7 billion people
each day. The use of oil alone representing just one-third of the
worlds energy consumption is now approaching 95 million barrels a
day, enough to power a car 100 billion miles, or 4 million times around
the world.
Several themes remain true today: Modern energy is fundamental to our
standards of living; practical options for meeting peoples energy needs
continue to expand, including those related to efficiency; and the energy
industry is huge, growing and connecting regions through trade.
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Energy tomorrow
Over The Outlook period to 2040, consumers and businesses will drive
an ongoing evolution in energy needs, shaped by waves of economic
growth and advances in technology. At the same time, both supply
and demand will be affected by a wide range of government policies,
including ones that seek to expand access to modern energy and those
that aim to reduce the risks of global climate change.
In this time frame, we expect oil, natural gas and coal to continue to meet
about 80 percent of global demand. For a century, these sources have
been the foundation of the modern energy that has enabled modern
living. Today, they remain abundant, reliable and affordable, and available
on the scale required to serve 7 billion people 24 hours a day.
Still, significant changes are coming. The biggest expected growth will
be in natural gas, which provides a practical energy solution for many
applications while also providing a significant cost advantage versus
other options to help reduce climate change risks. Renewable energy
and nuclear power also are expected to see significant growth over
this period, together accounting for about two-thirds of the increase in
energy demand for power generation.
Policies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increasingly
influence the energy landscape. In our view, after rising more than
50 percent from 1990 to 2014, global energy-related CO2 emissions
will likely peak around 2030.
To keep pace with demand, the world will need to pursue all economic
energy sources. In 2040, oil and natural gas will likely be nearly
60 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be
approaching a 25 percent share.
We can expect that new technologies will continue to create new
energy options for our growing world. We dont know yet what all
those technologies will be, but history tells us that the best ones will be
affordable, available on a commercial scale, and not overly reliant on
government support. Enabling these technologies will require policies
that promote innovation, investments and free trade.
One of the constants in life is change. Another is energy. By
understanding the trends described in The Outlook, we can
better anticipate how much and which kinds of energy the world
will need in the future. This insight helps guide our investments as we
work to help safely meet the worlds need for affordable, reliable
energy the energy that helps create and add value to modern living
for people everywhere.
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Developing
nations will lead
gains in GDP and
living standards
135%.
Energy is
fundamental
to standards
of living
As incomes rise, billions of people in
developing nations will rise into the
middle class; many of them will be
able to afford amenities that already
are commonplace elsewhere, such as
temperature-controlled homes, cars,
and appliances like refrigerators,
washing machines and computers.
Economics and
policies will impact
the energy mix
Increasingly, the mix of fuels that
consumers use to meet their energy
needs will be reshaped by economics
and government policies, especially
those aimed at reducing CO2
emissions associated with energy
use. In general, demand will shift
toward cleaner fuels like natural gas,
renewables and nuclear.
Natural gas
grows more
than any other
energy source
Demand for natural gas is
growing rapidly in part because
it is the cleanest-burning major
fuel. Gas also is abundant and
versatile; it is used heavily in the
power generation and
industrial sectors, and also is
emerging as a fuel for certain
types of transportation.
Technology
has the highest
potential and
the greatest
uncertainty
Advances in technology have
tremendous potential to help meet
our energy and environmental
goals, but the pace of change is
difficult to predict. Recent
breakthroughs in unconventional
oil and gas production are already
reshaping the worlds energy
supply. There is also significant
emphasis on technology advances
to improve energy efficiency and
the prospects for batteries,
renewables and nuclear power.
40%
1/3
80%.
Global energy-related
CO2 emissions are
expected to peak by
about 2030 and then
begin declining.
Global
fundamentals
What will the worlds energy needs look like in 2040
and beyond?
Answering this question begins with recognizing the
fundamental forces that continue to shape long-term
energy trends in nations around the world. These
forces include population growth, demographic shifts
and economic expansion.
Through 2040, we see China, India and other nonOECD countries home to seven-eighths of the
worlds population needing much more energy
to fuel economic development and rising living
standards. On the other hand, the U.S., Europe
and other OECD nations will see declines in overall
energy demand and emissions, even as their
economic output continues to grow.
All around the world, we expect energy efficiency to
continue to improve, and a greater share of demand
to be met by cleaner fuels. In part, these gains will be
the result of governments and consumers seeking to
meet their demand for energy while also addressing
the risks of climate change.
10
China and India. By 2040, India will have passed China as the worlds
most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. China and India also
lead the developing world in raising standards of living and achieving
technology improvements. Both nations are starting to take steps
toward adopting additional policies on energy and climate change.
Together, we see China and India accounting for almost half the
projected growth in global energy demand to 2040.
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11
Because of these rising incomes, we expect the world to see the largest
expansion of the global middle class in history. The Brookings Institution
estimates that the number of people earning enough to be considered
middle class will grow from just over 2 billion in 2014 to nearly 5 billion in
2030, with most of the growth centered in India and China.
At the same time, China, India and other developing nations continue
to experience the urbanization shift that permeated the developed world
in the 20th century. By 2040, close to 65 percent of the worlds population
will live in cities, up from under 55 percent today.
These shifts in developing nations are expected to have significant
impacts on energy demand. As people rise into the middle class and
move from rural to city settings, their per capita consumption of modern
energy tends to increase rapidly. This growth is tied to a wide range of
uses everything from refrigerators to cars to office buildings to the
energy needed to manufacture consumer goods.
25%
increase in energy
demand by 2040.
Thats like adding another
North and Latin America.
12
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13
Trillion 2010$
Billion
people
4
160
4
Age 65+
Age 65+
3
3
Rest of World
120
Key Growth
India
100
China
2
2
80
Age 1564
Age 1564
60
1
1
40
0
0
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
OECD32
10
25 40
10China
25 40
10India
25 40 Key
10 Growth
25 40 10 Rest
25 40
OECD32
China
OECD32
20
Age 014
Age 014
10 25 40
2000
2020
2040
World
Key Growth of Rest
of World
Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates
Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates
India
DATA AS OF 09/23/2015
DATA AS OF 09/23/2015
"10" 179 growth
705 171 drives increased
Economic
AS OF
"10" 179 705 171
AS OF
"25"
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for
energy
Oct. 27, 2015
OECD32
3000
3000
3000
3000
China
China
India
India
3000
3000
3000
3000
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4000
4000
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GDP
DATA AS OF
OECD32 Chin
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2014-2040; developing countries
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IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
42531 493
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IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
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GDP
Oct.
27, 2015
APPROVED BY
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Demographics
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Urbanization ratio
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100
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ratio
75
1200
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100
50
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OECD32
Turkey
80
China
OECD32
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DATA AS OF 09/23/2015
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60
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63.8
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India
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ENERGY
DATA AS OF 09/22/20
VERSION
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800
AS OF
216
Oct. 16, "00"
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ENTION:
ATTENTION:
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FILE INFO
OWNEROWNER
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human.
Therefore,
needs toAffairs
Len
Shelton
Publicthe
andeditor
Government
Meeting
growing
demand
People use energy in many ways every single
day. These needs will grow in coming decades as
populations and living standards continue to rise.
Income growth and urbanization in developing
economies are expected to spur demand for fuels
used in the home, as well as the energy needed
to produce and ship all types of manufactured
goods. The number of cars on the worlds roads
will rise by 80 percent.
But, we see the biggest growth coming from
electricity, the invisible energy that the modern
world expects 24/7 to provide light, heat and
power to our homes, buildings and industries. By
2040, the generation of electricity is expected to
account for 40 percent of all the energy used in
the world.
16
Transportation
Such are the patterns of modern life that stimulate demand for the
energy that allows us to drive to work, take the train to visit friends, or fly
to another city to close a business deal or spend time with loved ones.
Modern living also drives demand for the energy that fuels global
commerce. It is the energy that delivers raw materials to a manufacturing
plant, and the energy that makes it possible for food, medicine or the
latest modern conveniences to travel thousands of miles to a local
market or even directly to your home.
OECD32 nations have about 570 cars per 1,000 people, a level
that reflects relatively high incomes, mature automobile markets
and modern road networks. But in less-developed nations, vehicle
penetration is far lower at only about 70 cars per 1,000 people
on average. As incomes rise in these countries, people are likely to
purchase a lot more cars, many for the first time. In fact, we expect the
global light-duty fleet to rise by close to 800 million vehicles by 2040
with about 90 percent of this growth outside the OECD32 countries.
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Today, there are close to 1 billion light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the world.
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17
18
80%
more mpg
Technology improvements
will help us travel farther
with the same fuel.
2014
2040
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Follow @exxonmobil
19
55%.
20
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Follow @exxonmobil
21
MBDOE
MBDOE
75
30
50
20
Commercial
25
10
Light-duty road
0
0
2000
2040
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
OECD32
China
India
Key Growth
Rest
of World
DATA AS OF 09/10/2015
"00"
"05"
50000
"15"
25000
Personal Commercial
17580
22094
17872 OECD32
22083 countries account for half of global
AS OF
18450
22437
transportation
demand
today
Oct.
20, 2015
DATA AS OF
09/10/2015
18750
23059
"10"
"25"
19366 Growth
24377in transport demand
APPROVED
BY
2014-2040
will
OECD32
26924.8
25536.3
19669
25135
Todd Onderdonk
come
from outside
OECD324526.6
China
8244
20079
25799
India
1491.3 80 percent,
2972.5
20470 Chinas
26960
demand
will rise by
about
XXA 15XOM EOKey Growth
7207.7
10254.6
20645
27076
while Indias will
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9479.5
13055.3
20732
26613
XXA
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
21508 Demand
28122 in Key Growth countries,
Rest of
21822
28650
World will rise about 50 percent
22126
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CHART
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2020
FILE INFO
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Transportation projections
"40"
23702
10097.8
4903.8
12384.6
16445.7
MBDOE
MBDOE
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75
50
50
Rail
Other
Natural gas
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40
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40
Asia Pacific
Fuel oil
50
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30
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20
Middle East
Russia/Caspian
Latin America
20
25
Heavy-duty road
Gasoline
10
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Europe
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0
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2010
2020
2030
2040
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2020
2040
2000
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DATA AS OF 09/10/2015
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DATA AS OF 09/10/2015
VERSION
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ATTENTION: OWNER
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VERSION
Transportation projections
Light-duty vehicle demand trends
MBDOE
Millions
Billions
10
750
2.0
Light-duty vehicles
1.5
500
United States
Key Growth
Motorcycles
1.0
4
250
China
0.5
Europe OECD
India
0.475097
0.210318
0.513922
0.235968
1.39951
3.76822 8.52604
1.89165
0.617525
0.255873
1.39466
3.75017 8.59322
2.01255
0.68582
0.281331
1.40253
3.76366
2.14647
0.297297
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regions
will 0.808675
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1.40421
3.73861 8.91286
24
1.45111
1.40804
1.36135
1.31273
1.26544
"20" 1.22066
1.18501
Europe OECD
1.15172
2.3327 0.852041
0.316282
through 2040
Oct. 20, 2015
DATA AS
OF 09/10/2015
2.44774 0.964709
0.347092
APPROVED
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58616
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2000
2020
2040
T
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Non-OECD has only about one-third
of LDVs
696132
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MOTORCYCLES
413880
3.66737 8.5392 3.02731
1.19697
0.475538
about 80 percent of the increase to 2040
India
17109grows 56939
Growth led by China,
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fleet
XXA 15XOM EO- 149339
XXA 15XOM EO3.62375 8.81445 3.20001
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94674
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nearly double,
250
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more
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0.553048 80972
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by
2040,
led
by
India,
China
XXA
XXA
3.49318 8.49948 3.62781
1.76999
0.566933
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
IN ENERGY
OUTLOOK ON PAGE
Around 2025, China
will
pass the U.S.
as the
"15"
3.44945 8.59056 3.69577
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NAME
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Todd
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1.
where
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3.2935 9.00696 4.10024
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3.14092 8.76232 4.33204
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CHART
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1.48876
vehicles
AS OF
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ATTENTION: OWNER
1.39284
VERSION
1.69773
1.78623
LDV10
demand outside the OECD and China will 1.46187
1.4819
India
grow about 50 percent
United States
Rest
of World
3.74832 8.24746
1.41647
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3.74928 8.30058
Key Growth
India
India
10 25 40
1.36946
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10 25 40
"00" 1.34349
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FILE INFO
2040
CHART
OWNER
2020
ATTENTION: OWNER
2000
VERSION
Average mpg
Billions
1.75
1.50
75
Electric/PHEV*/fuel cell
50
Hybrids
1.25
DATA AS OF 10/30/2015
Consumption
Low
"10" 7.45
7.33
7.25
7.18
7.1
6.81
6.52
6.15
5.81
5.51
"20" 5.26
5.07
4.91
4.77
4.63
"25" 4.5
4.37
4.24
4.12
4.01
"30" 3.94
"35" 3.7
"40" 3.47
40
Natural gas/LPG
Diesel
50
Fuel economy
30
1.00
0.75
20
25
Gasoline
0.50
10
Consumption
0.25
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2010
2040
2020
2030
2040
75
"10"
"15"
"20"
"25"
"30"
"35"
"40"
Avg
9.8
9.76
9.7
9.61
9.53
9.39
9.21
9
8.77
8.54
8.31
8.08
7.87
7.67
7.48
7.3
7.13
6.96
6.8
6.65
6.51
5.82
5.3
Range Low
50 BY
APPROVED
Average
fuel economy will rise from 25 mpg 50to about
Todd Onderdonk
45 mpg
World Average
XXA 15XOM
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fuel consumption
will drop by half, to about
5LtDtyVhclFltByTyp.ai
liters/100 km
25
XXA
1750000
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell
1500000
Hybrids
1250000
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ATTENTION: OWNER
CHART
OWNER
1000000
Cars
AS OF and other LDVs to become more fuel-efficient
through
2040
Oct. 27,
2015
VERSION
Fleet
Gasoline
Diesel Nat Gas & LPG
697191
105333
17775
By 2040, one"2010"
of every four
cars on
the worlds roads
"2015"
828970 131933
22343
will be a hybrid
"2020"
925845 163268
30039
1031013
174395
36006
Conventional"2025"
cars (primarily
gasoline-powered)
will
168826
41543
remain most"2030"
popular to1113969
2040
"2035"
1118538 151605
47034
Plug-in electric
cars see1028075
modest gains;
"2040"
137173cost and53477
FILE INFO
DATA AS OF 09/10/2015
Hybrid vehicles become more commonplace by 2040
75
High
6.27
6.26
6.19
6.14
6.08
6.12
6.13
6.15
6.18
6.37
6.49
6.54
6.55
6.53
6.49
6.45
6.41
6.37
6.28
6.16
5.98
5.2
4.77
NAME
Todd Onderdonk
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
303540
10
20
25
303540
50
Follow @exxonmobil
40
25
26
As consumers gain wealth, they typically seek new and larger homes. And
they can afford to buy energy-consuming technologies that improve their
standard of living. Consider that in 1990, virtually no Chinese homes had
air conditioners or water heaters. Today, almost every urban home
in China has a water heater and there is on average more than one
air conditioner for every household.
An unfortunate fact is that many parts of the world, particularly Africa and
India, continue to rely on biomass fuels like wood and charcoal for their
residential energy needs. Biomass accounted for nearly 40 percent of
global residential energy demand in 2014.
2010
45%
2040
60%
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Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
27
Charting
the numbers
DATA AS OF 10/13/2015
Quadrillion BTUs
150
125
Rest of World
100
Africa
India
75
China
50
25
OECD32
0
2000
2020
2040
OECD32
"00" 44.43
45.0989
45.6045
46.7756
46.8335
47.1852
46.1411
46.0219
46.9124
46.2057
"10" 47.8962
45.9586
45.0417
46.7135
45.377
46.2197
46.2175
46.293
46.3071
46.2786
"20" 46.2287
46.1951
46.1509
46.098
46.0355
45.9587
45.8748
45.7883
45.691
45.5828
"30" 45.4542
"35" 44.8899
"40" 44.1147
28
Africa
100
India
75
China
50
OECD32
China
12.4346
12.5273
12.6951
13.1932
14.0522
14.5292
15.06
15.7087
15.6041
16.0952
16.5333
17.2383
17.8492
18.3216
18.6573
19.172
19.6994
20.1589
20.7241
21.233
21.7212
22.2261
22.7222
23.2097
23.6887
24.157
24.5389
24.902
25.2498
25.585
25.9102
26.9439
27.6442
India
6.4604
6.5363
6.702
6.8509
7.0743
7.1937
7.3765
7.4522
7.7053
8.1874
8.2045
8.2681
8.5562
8.6833
8.9147
9.1129
9.3045
9.4952
9.6857
9.8698
10.0533
10.2447
10.4371
10.6308
10.8261
11.0231
11.1684
11.31
11.4477
11.581
11.6991
12.2152
12.6064
Af
9.4
9.6
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.8
11.1
11.4
11.7
12.1
12.2
12.
13.1
13.
13.9
14.3
14.6
14.9
15.3
15.6
15.9
16.3
16.6
16.9
17.3
17.7
18.0
18.3
18.7
19.1
19.4
21.0
22.6
VERSION
88.927 60.914
31.849 32.484
58.046
70.443
Electricity use up 70 percent, reaches 40 percent share
Households in India,
among
the worlds
85.17China
62.748
31.277
32.057 lowest
57.716 energy
69.984users
Oct. 20, 2015
150
86.434 60.693
30.978 32.036
57.216
72.605
Other
(Renew.
+
Mkt
Heat)
Biomass fuels decline to about 20 percent of demand by 2040
DecliningAPPROVED
household
tied to31.955
improved
efficiency
BY
88.017energy
61.307use is31.32
56.87
72.176
Nick85.034
Jones 61.109
32.073
32.37
56.36
75.585
Natural
gas
rises
20
percent
2014-2040
as
coal
declines,
oil
loses
share
China
intensity
is
relatively
flat
as
efficiency
offsets
growth
from
125
84.85 60.746
32.28 32.121
55.91
78.212
Elec
more household
appliances
XXA 15XOM
EO78.538
59.54
32.392 32.212
55.508
81.868
Fuel shifts reflect rising living standards, urbanization in non-OECD
81.518 55.365
32.71 31.817
55.148
83.056
ResCommDmndByFuel.ai
100
Biomass/Other
80.454 57.387
31.724
32.257
54.942
80.745
XXA
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
77.039 56.323
31.637 33.391
54.721
81.495
Coal
75
"2010"
77.024 60.017
31.413 32.559
53.769
78.845
NAME
75.374 54.025
31.669 31.999
53.803
78.652
Nick Jones
68.875 55.381
31.669 32.456
53.695
74.966
Gas
50
73.133 55.878
31.602 32.155
53.296
73.519
Data list is used to drive the black and
73.358
51.374
31.236 32.251
53.717
74.986
white chart, which
is then used
as a
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Visit exxonmobil.com
Follow
@exxonmobil
Oil
70.705
31.142
32.292
53.493
73.744
are cut and pasted
from the54.299
black and
25
white template and are highly accurate.
69.233 53.771
31.069 32.334
53.183
72.767
However, the color chart is NOT linked to
N: OWNER
CHART
OWNER
FILE INFO
"2000"
AS OF
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
20
20
2
ROW
43.936
43.471
42.434
42.282
41.419
39.298
39.177
38.431
38.017
36.964
37.314
37.528
36.81
36.601
36.243
35.887
35.625
VERSION
Biomass/Other
Other (Renew. + Mkt Heat)
Million BTUsElec
per household
29.19 22.83
5.74
100
29.36 23.45
5.88
29.61 24.53
5.7
30.18 25.31
5.96
30.47 26.21
6
80
30.89 27.37
5.81
31.13 28.28
5.94
31.47 29.49
5.88
31.78 30.24
6.06
Middle
32.23 30.57
6.08East
60
32.75 32.09
6.38
North
America
32.99 32.29
6.65
33.29 33.11
6.81
Europe
33.58 34.01
6.94
Africa
40
33.86 34.46
7.02
Rest7.13
of World
34.08 35.44
India
34.25 36.29
7.18
34.37 37.19
7.24
China
34.48 38.11
7.3
20
34.53 39.03
7.35
34.56 39.94
7.4
34.63 40.95
7.43
34.68 41.97
7.47
0
34.73
43.01
7.5
34.76
2000 44.07
2020
2040 7.53
34.77 45.13
7.55
34.74 46.09
7.56
34.69 47.06
7.57
34.63 48.03
7.57
34.55 48.99
7.57
34.46 49.94
7.56
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
33.49 54.61
7.55
NorthAm
Europeuse7.48
China
Mid East
31.87
Middle59.19
East, North
America
the
most India
energy Africa
per household
AS O
Oc
APP
FILE INFO
Coal
3.83
3.8
3.74
3.86
4.11
4.16
4.3
4.16
4.44
4.68
4.29
4.17
4.45
4.34
4.32
4.32
4.33
4.3
4.34
4.35
4.36
4.37
4.37
4.36
4.35
4.33
4.32
4.3
4.29
4.27
4.24
3.8
3.3
XX
En
CHART
OWNER
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
Oil
Gas
"00" 15.35
20.95
150
15.66
20.95
Other
15.29
21.41
15.46
22.35
15.71
22.5
125
15.61
22.58
15.04
22.53
Electricity
14.6
23.16
100
14.56
23.77
14.23
23.35
"10" 14.25
24.37
14.12
23.9
75
13.69
23.26
13.94
24.73
Biomass
13.97
24.22
14.21
24.86
50
Coal
14.29
25.1
14.36
25.38
14.44
25.68
Gas
14.52
25.96
25
"20" 14.58
26.24
14.63
26.47
Oil
14.67
26.69
0
14.71
26.91
2000
2020
2040
14.74
27.13
14.77
27.35
14.74
27.56
14.71
27.77
14.68
27.97
14.64
28.16
"30" 14.59
28.35
"35" 14.52
29.02
"40"2014-2040
14.44
29.52
Electricity accounts for nearly all demand growth
Quadrillion BTUs
N: OWNER
29
Data
white
temp
are c
white
Howe
100
Average ownership per 100 households
100
14
12
12
Air conditioners
80
10
Air conditioners
Refrigerators
60
Refrigerators
Washing
machines
60
Washing machines
Brazil
10
10000
Middle East
Brazil
North America
China
Indonesia
Indonesia
Europe
China
Rest of World
India
4
Cars
20
India
Cars
12
0
12
per capita
(PPP$k)
Source: China GDP
Statistical
Yearbook;
ExxonMobil estimates
Source: China Statistical Yearbook; ExxonMobil estimates
2020
0
2000
2040
2010
202
MiddleDATA
East to pass
America as topAS OF
Refrigerator sales data show China on AS OF
OF North
09/22/2015
Cars
DATA AS OF AS
09/22/2015
NorthAm
Europe
ChinaASOct.
India
Africa
M
electricity
per household
trend to17.9094
reach U.S.,
OECD levels
10.7564
AS OF
OF
Sept
. 30pm,
2015
20, 2015
Cars
DATA
OFuser
09/22/2015
China AS"2000"
15.1997
9502.83
3815.28
429.486
427.411
729.904
5
17.9094 10.0406
10.7564
Sept . BY30pm,
2015
Oct.
20,
APPROVED
BY 2015
4.9
4.20518 is a major driver of electricity
12.6488
9.23042
China
Air conditioning
India and
Indonesia
have lower incomeAPPROVED
15.1997
10.0406
9445.19
3907.82
463.623
440.077
694.024
5
10.1668
5.1
4.59739
NickBYJones
Nick
APPROVED
BY Jones
14 8.40061
4.9
12.6488points
9.23042
used in4.20518
the
home
level starting
than China, but APPROVED
3905.33
498.286
458.051
710.61
8.17168
7.73023
5.5
5.0317510176.8
10.1668
8.40061
5.1
4.59739
Nick
Jones
Nick
Jones
14 7.0871
6.90989
follow similar
10129.9
4015.88
567.872
486.631
772.706
5
5.7
5.5675
8.17168 paths
7.73023
5.5
5.03175
North
XXA 15XOM
EO- America demand to fall 15 percentXXA 15XOM EO5.73657
6.9098912 6.23836
7.0871
6
6.2383610094.9
4031.95
641.749
506.461
751.237
6
5.7
5.5675
4.71705
5.5675
XXA 15XOM
EO- 7.0871Europe stays flat
XXA
15XOM EO2014-2040;
High urbanization
in Brazil equates
ChinaDmndDurblGds.ai
RefridgeSales.ai
5.73657
6.23836
12 5.03175
6 6.2
6.23836 10324.4
4047.84
761.59
517.278
794.15
6
3.86073
4.71705 sales
5.5675resembling
6.4 ON PAGE
7.73023
ChinaDmndDurblGds.ai
RefridgeSales.ai
XXA
X
to refrigerator
7.0871
3.31907
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK
ON PAGE 6
10094.8
4080.47growth
862.475
564.213
809.083
6.2
China
continues
to
see
strong
in
3.8607310 4.59739
5.03175
6.7
8.40061
4.20518
6.4
7.73023
XXA
XX
OECD 2.7001
countries
3.31907
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
IN
ENERGY
OUTLOOK
ON
PAGE
10 4.59739
10287.3
4026.77
1012.34
581.889
830.766
6
6.9
9.23042
household
electricity
Cars
40
40
20
20
30
8
10
VERSION
VERSION
VERSION
VERSION
12
2.68368
3.88034
2.7001
4.20518
8
2.36152
2.68368 3.60907
3.88034
1.99474
2.361528 3.35478
3.60907
1.75878
1.99474 6 3.14494
3.35478
1.44346
1.75878 2.94551
3.14494
1.23471
1.443466 2.72261
2.94551
1.0734
1.23471 4 2.50118
2.72261
0.902415
2.27998
1.0734
2.50118
0.749917
4 2.03882
0.902415
2.27998
0.587936
0.7499172 1.80911
2.03882
0.482608
0.587936 1.60313
1.80911
2 1.48832
0.406149
0.482608 1.60313
FILE INFO
FILE INFO
FILEFILE
INFOINFO
2000
0
0
2000
5
10
15
20
25
0
5GDP per
10 capita
15 (PPP$k)
20
25
Source: Freedonia
ExxonMobil estimates
GDP perGroup,
capita Inc.;
(PPP$k)
ATTENTION:
OWNERCHART
CHART
TTENTION:
OWNER
OWNER
OWNER
2
4
6
8
10
GDP
per
2
4 capita
6 (PPP$k)
8
10
4000
0
0
Africa
India
8000
6000
20
12000
= 2012
China
Computers
40
12
10
Computers
40
= 2012
6.7
7.1
8.40061
10.040610113.6
4054
7.4
7.1
7.7
7.4
7.9
7.7
8.3
7.9
8.4
8.3
8.7
8.4
8.9
8.7
"2010" 10034.5
12.304
11.5276
9806.12
13.0838
12.304
9417.51
13.8871
13.0838
14.70879443.59
13.8871
15.54869389.79
14.7087
16.45599095.77
15.5486
17.4043
16.4559
8963.53
3939.34
4038.36
4008.69
3847.36
4034.09
4007.22
1072.46
NAME
607.879
851.048
6.9
9.23042
Nick
Nick Jones
7.1
Africa
also see4035.02
growth in 1164.1
home NAME
NAME Jones
7India and
10.7564
9690.81
654.87
832.132
10.0406
Nick Jones
Nick Jones
11.5276
electricity
use
7 7.1
10.7564
China
China
NAME
TTENTION: OWNER
CHART
ATTENTION: OWNER
CHART
OWNER
OWNER
80
4138.26
6
7
7
Visit exxonmobil.com
Urbanization and income trends also help explain the difference between
China and Africa in terms of the fuels used in homes and businesses.
In general, Chinas higher incomes allow it to rely more on electricity
and less on biomass used directly in homes. And electricity is essential for
commercial buildings such as schools and hospitals. We expect electricity
to account for most of the growth in Chinas residential and commercial
demand through 2040, but only 30 percent of Africas.
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
31
Industrial
32
Visit exxonmobil.com
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
33
PlasticsEurope
34
Naphtha has been the main feedstock in Asia Pacific for decades,
used to create plastics and inks for food containers and labels as
well as many other products.
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Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
35
200
150
Heavy industry
100
50
Energy industry
Other
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Energy-industry
demand will mirror trends in
200
fossil fuels production
36
100
Electricity/market heat
DATA
Chemical
DATA AS OF 09/15/2015
FILE INFO
250
250
CHART
OWNER
Quadrillion BTUs
300
300
TENTION: OWNER
Charting
the numbers
Industrial projections
OIL
46.6
43.9
42.5
41.8
42.4
42.5
43.7
44.8
46.2
46.5
44.9
44.8
45.2
44
45.5
46.6
47.1
49
48.6
49.9
49.8
50.1
50.7
51.5
54.4
55.1
56.3
56.7
55.9
55.4
57.3
57
58.5
59.4
59.8
60.5
61.3
62.1
63.2
64.2
64.9
66.1
67.1
68.2
69.3
70.4
20002014
20142040
Rest of World
China
Industrial demand
Industrial
growth
demand
growth
demand growth
ChinaIndustrial
Other Key Growth
Rest of World
19702000
19702000
Rest of World
Iran
19702000
20002014
20002014
20002014
20142040
20142040
(~60 quadrillion
(~60 BTUs)
quadrillion BTUs) (~60 quadrillion BTUs)
20142040
(~60 quadrillion BTUs)
Rest of World
Rest of World
Rest of World
Brazil
China India
China
Other Key
Growth Other KeyChina
Growth
Other Key Growth
Rest of World
Rest of World
ChinaRest of World
China
Russia
RestOther
of World
Rest of World
Rest of World
China
India
Other
Iran
Iran
Iran
Key Growth
Key Growth
India
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
United States
South Korea
Indonesia
United States
Indonesia
Brazil
Brazil
Brazil
India
India
Iran Saudi Brazil
Brazil Canada
Arabia
Russia
Russia
Russia
Other
Other
Other
China
China
China
India Other
India
India
Other
Other
Key Growth
Key Growth
Key Growth
Key Growth
Key Growth
Key Growth
India
India
India
United States
United States
South Korea
South Korea
South Korea
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
United States
United States
United States
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Iran Saudi Brazil Iran Saudi Brazil Iran Saudi
Brazil Canada
Brazil Canada
Brazil Canada
Arabia
Arabia
Arabia
China
India
United States
Brazil
DATA AS OF 09/18/2015
1970-2000 in percent
US Canada
4.8
4.10
Brazil
Indo
Other key
ROW
5.15
3.95
15.59
25.25
DATA AS OF 09/18/2015
DATA AS OF 09/18/2015
DATA AS OF 09/18/2015
Russia
Saudi Brazil
China India
IranSaudi
Russia
OtherKey
Brazil
Iran Saudi
OtherKey
ROW
3.7
3.7
2.4
2.6
3.2
7.6
14.1
Iran
ROW
OtherKey
5.6 3.5
India
US China
BrazilIndia
Saudi US
IranChina
Brazil
Indonesia
India
Saudi Other
US
Iran Key
Brazil
Indonesia
Saudi Other
ROW
Iran KeyIndonesia
ROW
Other Key
8.7
11.1
3.7 8.7
14.1
3.7
2.6 7.63.7 3.22.4 14.1
2.6 7.6
3.2
7.6
APPROVED
BY
ROW
5.6Nick
AS OF
Jones
AS OF
AS OF
Oct.
2015
Oct.
Oct. 20, 2015
XXA 20,
15XOM
EO-20, 2015
APPROVED BY
APPROVED BY
APPROVED BY
IndDmndGrwthPies.ai
ROW
Nick Jones
Nick Jones
XXA
Nick Jones
Indo
Brazil
ROW
VisitOtherKey
exxonmobil.com
Iran
ROW
Nick Jones
OtherSubscribe
Key
exxonmobilperspectives.com
Indonesia
FILE INFO
CHART
OWNER
Other key
XXA
XXA
XXA
Nick Jones
Nick Jones
Follow @exxonmobil
WNER
ROW
FILE INFO
CHART
FILE INFO
OWNER
XXA 15XOMXXA
EO-15XOMXXA
EO- 15XOM EONAME
IndDmndGrwthPies.ai
IndDmndGrwthPies.ai
IndDmndGrwthPies.ai
Nick Jones
CHART
OWNER
11.1
China India
US Brazil Saudi Iran Indonesia Other Key
ROW
China
accounted
for more than2.2
half the growth in demand22000-2014
33.8
5.1
3.1 33.8 2 5.1
3.1 33.82 5.1 2 2.23.1 3.52
2.2 5.63.5
8.7
3.95
25.25
WNER
China India
Global
Indo
ROW Other
key demand
ROW
WNER
ATTENTION:
CHART
OWNER
OWNER
2000-2014 in percent
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SKorea
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FILE INFO
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China
37
Industrial projections
Heavy industry fuel mix transition
20
100
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80
15
Electricity/heat
60
10
Gas
40
China
2010
OECD32
2040
2010
2040
China
2010
2040
Rest of World
DATA AS OF 09/15/2015
(Data listed on 2nd page)
Oil
100
80
United States
10
Japan
38
5
XXA
AS OF
Oct. 20, 2
APPROVED BY
Nick Jon
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FILE INFO
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10
Oct. 20,
2015
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of OECD32;
OECD "2040" are 875 percent
9
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APPROVED
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21
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ATTENTION: OWNER
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Nick Jones
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6.7
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NAME
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Jones
7.1China uses coal as
fuel,
and
an alternative
25
7.6chemical feedstock
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7.4
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7.4
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
are cut and pasted from the black and
7.6
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the database and is NOT driven by the
8.1
data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a
8.5
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thoroughly proof the final artwork, not
8.6
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JUST the data list.
9
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10 25 40
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CHART
OWNER
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2020
ATTENTION: OWNER
0
2000
VERSION
United States
0
NAME
Nick Jones
39
Electricity generation
5%
e from developing
ic nations.
40
85%
of electricity demand
growth will come from
developing nations.
The need for electricity is rising in all parts of the world, but growth is
being led by non-OECD countries, many of which are entering (or already
have entered) a period much like what the OECD experienced in the
20th century modern fuels are replacing traditional ones, people are
moving from rural settings to modern cities with the latest technologies,
and more people are gaining access to electricity.
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Each nation and region will continue to choose the mix of fuels that
best suits its needs. These decisions will be based on a host of factors,
including: energy security, the cost and availability of fuels, air quality and
emissions. Many regions will seek to lower their carbon emissions,
often by switching from coal to gas. By 2040, we expect the share of
electricity generated by natural gas to rise to about 30 percent and be
about even with coal-fired generation. We also anticipate coal to remain
important in some areas, especially where gas is not readily available and
bottom-line economics are most important. For example, the amount
of electricity generated from coal in India is seen rising 150 percent from
2014 to 2040.
The worlds continued reliance on coal for power generation will keep up
pressure to reduce power sector emissions. As nations look for ways to
curb emissions, particularly from coal, some are considering capturing
CO2 and storing it underground; however, carbon-capture-and-storage
technologies continue to face substantial economic and practical hurdles
that will likely limit their deployment.
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41
We also expect wind and solar to see strong growth, aided by policies
that favor or mandate their use. We see wind and solar accounting for
more than 10 percent of global electricity generation in 2040, up from
4 percent in 2014. It is important to remember that these are global
averages the use of wind and solar will vary widely by region.
While wind and solar energy may seem free, significant investment
is required to build the facilities that turn this energy into electricity.
Moreover, because wind and solar energy are intermittent, these
facilities use only a fraction of their capacity and must be backed up
by other sources typically gas to ensure a reliable flow of electricity.
Although battery costs have fallen considerably, they remain too
expensive to be considered with renewables as a replacement for
reliable baseload generation.
We believe that in some countries, such as the United States, the best
option right now is natural gas. The U.S. EIA found that of the 1.6 billion
metric tonnes of CO2 emissions avoided in the U.S. power sector from
2005 to 2013, more than 60 percent came from substituting natural gas
for coal and petroleum, while less than 40 percent came from growth in
non-carbon generation, particularly renewables such as wind and solar.
The idea that natural gas, a fossil fuel, would be a powerful tool
for reducing emissions might seem counterintuitive, but reliable gas
avoids the intermittency issue and emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than
coal when used for power generation.
17%
While economic growth continues to
widen the gap globally, about 1 in 6
people still live without any electricity,
based on IEA data.
42
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43
Charting
the numbers
Of all the energy-demand sectors we study when preparing
The Outlook, power generation is perhaps the most dynamic and
complex. It is the fastest-growing sector, driven by strong global
demand for electricity. It uses the broadest array of fuels: coal, gas,
nuclear, wind, solar and hydroelectric. It is also the sector most
impacted by policies seeking to address climate change.
The most striking development in power generation is expected to be
the shift away from coal the dominant energy source in this sector
and the rise in cleaner fuels such as natural gas and renewables.
But as our charts show, trends are likely to vary widely by region.
Each nation will choose a different mix of fuels for making electricity,
and different paths to reducing CO2 and other GHGs associated
with power generation.
40
Transportation
30000
30
20000
20
10000
10
Industrial
0
00
0
2000
2020
2040
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
OtherIndustry
Other Residential
Global electricity"00"
demand seen
4562 rising
1775 by 3643
4555
3719
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4730
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3924
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4954
1835
4057
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as Chinas
6046
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manufacturing
"10"
6652
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5112
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doubles5138
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5281
2014-2040, but only 2 percent
of2533
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8657
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5223
1934
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electricity
5510
1987
demand rises by 70 percent 2014-2040;
5842
2026
industry up 55 percent
6197
2118
44
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3048
3153
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3498
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4106
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4326
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5259
Transportation
188
197
203
213
217
219
224
234
230
232
246
263
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288
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305
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2014
United States
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Key Growth
India
India
20
20000
20000
China
China
OECD32
10
United States
Europe
China
10000
10000
OECD32
Key Growth
India
United States
0
0
2010
2020
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
OECD32
China
Rest of World
8545.5
1380.2
405.7
1305.1
2236.9
9041.2
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382
1235.9
2190.1
non-OECD
2030
2035
2040
1980
2040
0 2010
2000 2010 2020 2030
2035
2040
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
US Europe
China
9.242
3.629
0.262
9.358
3.647
0.265
United States
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3970.9
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data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a
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provide less electricity in 2040 than nuclear
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46
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IN ENER
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VERSION
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1567
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10 25 40
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400
GAS
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a
human. Therefore,
the editor needs to
Other Renewables
thoroughly proof the final artwork, not
Follow
@exxonmobil
Other Renewables
TTENTION: OWNER
Solar/Wind
Gas
NUCLEAR
10000
47
Lowering
emissions
Energy and human progress are closely linked,
with expanding access to reliable, affordable and
cleaner fuels helping power substantial gains in living
standards over the past two centuries.
Today, as always, a key element of continuing
to advance human progress is managing the
environmental impact of that progress.
In coming decades, although populations and living
standards will rise significantly, ongoing improvements
to energy efficiency and increasing efforts to use
lower-carbon fuels wherever practical will slow the
growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. In our view,
global CO2 emissions are likely to peak around 2030,
and then begin declining.
48
Emissions
1/2.
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49
We expect that in most nations, the biggest value will not be found via
subsidies or mandates of high-cost alternative technologies, but rather
through open-market competition among a wide range of practical,
lower-carbon options. To that end, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office
suggested years ago that putting a transparent and reliable price on
CO2 emissions would be societys most cost-effective approach to
reduce emissions.
has certainly changed the energy dynamic considerably. You are absolutely right, it has
Hydrofracking
created an opportunity for a shift away from coal into natural gas, and that shift has been enormously
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy
50
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51
40
12
10
Rest of World
20
China
10
2
OECD32
0
0
1990
2015
2040
14 40
14 40
OECD32 China
14 40
India
14 40
14 40
Key
Rest
Growth of World
DATA AS OF 09/22/2015
52
India
OECD32
China
India Key Growth
ROW
"1990" 10911.7
2266.2
594
1722.7
5812
10908.1
2373.5
633.1
1833.4
5630.6
10958.1
2482.1
665.8
1911.6
5315.9
11031.2
2655.4
687.6
1959.3
5043
Global CO
2 emissions to peak around 2030,
11207.7
2792.7
728
2072.1
4740.7
then decline
11383.7
3036.3
781.9
2155.9
4728.9
11742.3
3086.2
820.7
2277.6
4687.2
Emissions11897.1
already falling
OECD32;
3085 in
858.4
2355
4649.4
11885.8
3131.7
869.8
2400
4652.7
will drop 11967.5
20 percent
2014-2040
3045.2
936.7
2444.8
4685.9
"2000" 12263.2
3349.6
964.4
2498.3
4759.9
Chinas
surge
in
emissions
is
slowing;
12244.7
3427
973.6
2550
4830.8
12262.1
3634.6
1008.1
2617
4900
seen peaking
around
2030
12463
4233 1035.3
2741.7
5084.5
4920.6
2871.2
5233.7
Emissions12612.3
keep rising
to 1128.5
2040 in India,
12655.6
5481.2 1187.9
3001.1
5360.9
Key Growth,
Rest 6030.5
of World
12609.5
1273.8
3078
5506.6
12766.2
6431.3 1384.6
3246.8
5629
Efficiency, 12449
lower-carbon
fuels are key
6620.7 1481.4
3384
5812.7
1659.4
3349
5673.1
factors in11698.3
curbing6953.3
emissions
"2010" 12094.4
7421.2 1741.4
3498.4
5956.4
11904.3
8126.7 1823.7
3587.5
6142.7
11750.3
8396.3 1946.2
3724.4
6275.7
11798.8
8713 2037.3
3754.5
6312.7
11682.2
8729.7 2117.9
3854.5
6297.1
11583.6
8784 2209.1
3939.2
6384
11520
8894.1 2278.4
4013.4
6459.7
11473.2
8913 2346.5
4087.4
6560.3
Key Growth
BY
By 2040, Chinas per capitaAPPROVED
CO
"2014"
2 emissions
Todd
Onderdonk
OECD32
10.895
will be nearing OECD32 levels
China
6.391
30
ROW
2.676
ENERGY
OUTLOOK ON PAGE
Global per capita emissions fallIN 10
percent
2014-2040 on efficiency, cleaner fuels
12
40000
30000
ROW 10
Key Growth
8
India
CHART
OWNER
ATTENTION: OWNER
Charting
the numbers
Emissions projections
"2040"
7.74
6.621
2.486
3.953
2.514
XXA
NAME
Todd Onderdonk
204
201
Energy-related CO intensity
0.8
Hybrid vehicles
0.6
Carbon capture
and sequestration
0.4
Wind
Solar
0.2
Electric cars
100
China
1.078
OECD32 economies
about 75 percent
India today are
0.973
Key
Growth
0.499
less CO2 emissions-intense than Chinas
ROW
0.676
Oct.
20,of2015
Best value is improving
fuel
conventional gasoline vehicles
DATA AS
OFeconomy
09/29/2015
"2040"
0.119
0.323
0.44
0.315
0.383
APPROVED BY
Todd Onderdonk
ImprGas
-92
-98
Solar energy is about
double the10
cost of wind for curbing
Gas intoPwr
33 emissions (vs. coal) in U.S.
XXA
Nuclear
60 15XOM EO66
Electric cars offer
the worst return,
$800/tonne of CO2 abated
Hybrid
77 costing upwards of83
EmissPerGDP.ai
Sequestration
71
136
XXA
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
Wind
52
151
Solar
111
225
NAME
Electric Cars
836
1000
2040
1.0
0.8
2014
ImprGas
Visit exxonmobil.com
900
VERSION
0
100
200
800
Range of costs to eliminate one tonne of CO (Dollars per tonne)
VERSION
14 40
Key
Rest
Growth of World
Todd Onderdonk
Follow @exxonmobil
AS OF
Nov. 05 7pm
APPROVED BY
Todd Onde
FILE INFO
14 40
XXA 15XOM
CO2AbateC
IN ENERGY OUTLOO
CHART
OWNER
India
ATTENTION: OWNER
14 40
FILE INFO
14 40
CHART
OWNER
14 40
OECD32 China
ATTENTION: OWNER
NAME
Todd Onderd
53
Fulfilling
future
supply
Our energy choices have never been as plentiful
or diverse.
Thanks to advances in energy technology, today
we have access to shale gas and tight oil from
North America, LNG from the Middle East, oil
from deepwater fields off the African coast, and
arrays of wind and solar facilities. Our growing
capacity to move energy between nations even
ones on opposite sides of the world also will
expand energy choice and energy security.
All of the worlds energy sources will be needed
to meet rising demand to 2040, but there will
be a marked shift toward cleaner fuels,
particularly natural gas. Oil will remain the
worlds top energy source, essential for
transportation and chemical production.
54
As a result of advances in
technology, and the cumulative
accomplishments of the men
and women of the energy
industry over decades, the
world today has an abundance
of supply and an unprecedented
range of energy choices.
For example, until this century, energy producers had not yet figured out
how to economically tap the vast amounts of oil and natural gas that were
known to exist in shale and other tight rock formations. But by 2040,
these unconventional and other technology-driven sources of oil and
gas are expected to meet about one-fifth of the worlds energy needs.
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55
Natural gas is a versatile fuel that can run everything from electricity
generators to industrial kilns to residential hot-water heaters to delivery
trucks..Gas is abundant and performs better than coal in terms of air
quality and CO2 emissions. Global demand for natural gas is projected to
rise by 50 percent from 2014 to 2040.
56
0.7%
200
150
100
0.3%
2.9%
50
4.8%
1.3%
2040
2014
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar/
Hydro/geo
wind/biofuels
DATA AS OF 09/15/2015
"2040"
"2014"
Oil
223.4
Oil
187
Gas
180.6
120.3
Oil remains essential
to transportation
and Gas
chemicals
Coal
141.8
Coal
147.6
Gas overtakes
coal, driven by need
reliable fuel
Biomass
56.8for cleaner,
Biomass
53
Nuclear
54.1
Nuclear
25.9
Nuclear, renewables
see strong growth;
total
more than 20 percent
Solar / Wind / Biofuels
24
Solar / Wind / Biofuels 7.1
of supply by Hydro
2040/ Geo
22.4
Hydro / Geo
16.1
Oil remains the worlds top fuel, but natural gas grows the most
2040
150
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200
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
100
57
Liquids
58
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59
Milton Friedman
60
Another major shift will be seen in Asia Pacific. Already the worlds
largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacifics net imports are projected
to rise by over 50 percent between 2014 and 2040 as domestic
production stays flat but demand increases with rising prosperity creating
new oil demand for transportation and other uses.
We expect other regions to see less drastic shifts. Europe is likely to
remain the second-largest oil importing region, with imports meeting
75 percent of demand by 2040. The Middle East is expected to expand its
lead as the worlds largest oil-exporting region as production outpaces
growth in demand. We anticipate that the Russia/Caspian region will
remain the second-largest oil exporter. And in Africa, we expect liquids
demand to grow significantly while supply remains relatively flat; as a
result, Africas supply and demand will be roughly balanced by 2040.
4/5
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61
Liquids projections
Charting
the numbers
Technology-driven supplies
MBDOE
MBDOE
120
20
Biofuels
Other
NGLs
15
Tight oil
80
Oil sands
Deepwater
60
10
New conventional
crude and condensate
development
40
5
20
Developed conventional
crude and condensate
0
2040
Tight oil
10 25 40
Tight
NGLs
Other
Bio
1754
1926
65024
2381
67559
2373
10
69830
EO-
2538
23
2966
43
3769
62
4215
91
4612
231
66229
1926 hydraulic
915
3
65024
2381 1174
20000
67559
2373 1293
NGLs
69830
2538
1534
23
6658
1893
Deepwater
growth
70166
2966 1645
43
6786
2153
614
69647
15000
3769 1860
62
2452
704
69013
Oil
4215
1812sands
91
6871
69145
4612 1849
231
7057
2453
1132
66689
5322 1952
351
7426
2572
1251
"10" 67927
5415 2111
594
7776
3386
1424
67971
5028 2247
1043
8231
3566
1497
67878
5313 2381
1849
8688
3502
1484
66941
5711 2487
2671
8937
4069
1594
66476
71
5959 2665
3670
9475
3085
1660
65538
1249
6179 2833
4609
10229
2089
1619
Sand
Deepw
20000
0
00
Other
Undev
10
25 40
20 35
30
C+C
6168
2927
66229
Growth
and
1754
762
0 in NGLs
5994
1484
6174
1500
fracturing
DATA AS OF 09/18/2
AS OF
Sept. 30,
tight
by 2015
"00" 66461
456 oil enabled
40000
10 25 40
"00" 66461
62
10 25 40
NGLs
10 25 40
VERSION
2020
477
APPROVED BY
Chad Harris
511
Rapid tight
oil growth
from
2010 to 2025
2040
10
6211
1583
542
FILE INFO
2000
XXA 15XOM
by Africa,
North
70166
2025
LiqSplyByType.ai
America, South America
10000
5000
541
driven
69647
2010
CHART
OWNER
100
TENTION: OWNER
69145
NAME
XXA
66689
5322
351
"10" 67927
5415
594
Chad Harris
5028 1043
5313 1849
5711 2671
5959 3670
6179 4609
Deepwater
Oil sands
Tight oil
NGLs
Other
Demand
MBDOE
Trillion
barrels
6
45
5
5
4
4
30
Net exports
Remaining
Remaining
resource
resource
Net imports
3
3
2
2
15
Cumulative
Cumulative
production
production
through
2040
through 2040
1
1
0
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
Africa
Europe
Russia/Caspian
Middle East
Asia Pacific
0
0
Asia Pacific will need more oil imports to meet its surging demand
Global
oil resources are abundant
(Data on second
page)
VERSION
FILE INFO
Europe remains a net oil importer as its demand and production decline
AS OF
DATA AS OF 11/10/2015
Cum Prod
Technology has added tight oil,
Cum Prod
Chad Harris
"2040"
2.081947932
deepwater, oil"2040"
sands
2.081947932
APPROVED BY
By 2040, about 80 percent of oil demand in Asia Pacific will be met by imports
Middle East, Russia remain major oil exporters to 2040, but Africa shifts
CHART
OWNER
Visit exxonmobil.com
30000
TENTION: OWNER
Liquids Demand
Resource
Resource
3.640281511
3.640281511
XXA 15XOM
EO-world has 150 years of supply
The
LiqTradeBalnce2.ai
at current demand levels
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
45000
2040
2040
Source: IEA
Source: IEA
XXA
6
6
NAME
Chad Harris
Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com
Follow @exxonmobil
5
5
4
4
3
Resource
Resource
Cum Prod
Cum Prod
63
Natural gas
40%
of global energy demand growth from 2014
to 2040 is projected to be met by natural gas.
64
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65
Significant new LNG exports are expected from the United States, East
Africa and Australia. However, with abundant global gas resources
and many aspiring gas exporters, we expect LNG to remain a highly
competitive market. We anticipate that low-cost supply will be a
determining factor for new LNG supply sources, especially in the second
half of The Outlook period as capacity expands.
Inter-regional pipeline exports also are expected to grow, increasing by
about 70 percent from 2014 to 2040 to about 40 BCFD; most of this
growth is projected to come from the Russia/Caspian region, which
serves both Europe and Asia. Europes dependence on imports will likely
increase as its local production declines.
66
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67
Charting
the numbers
Unconventional production
Demand
BCFD
150
Net exports
125
100
75
50
25
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
10 20 30 40
Africa
Europe
Russia/Caspian
Middle East
Asia Pacific
North Americas gas exports grow as its unconventional production more than doubles
Unconventional gas also makes its mark in Asia; one-third of production by 2040
Europes need for gas imports keeps rising as domestic output falls
Net imports
AS OF
Chad Harris
Asia Pacific gas production and imports grow to meet rapidly rising demand
By 2040, unconventional gas will account for about one-third of global gas production
FILE INFO
125
100
68
75
ATTENTION: OWNER
Demand
CHART
OWNER
150
NAME
Chad Harris
BCFD
BCFD
600
50
Natural
gas resources
35
Thousand TCF
35
30
500
40
LNG
30
25
Pipeline
400
25
20
30
300
Local production
15
10
10
100
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
Remaining
resource
20
15
20
200
Remaining
resource
10
5
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
10 25 40
Russia/
Caspian
North
America
Asia
Pacific
Middle
East
Africa
Rest
of World
5
0
2040
0Source: IEA
Cumulative
production
through 2040
Cumulative
production
through 2040
2040
Source: IEA
316gas exports
27
Africa
about42double
323
Inter-regional natural gas pipeline exports
"2020"
328
rise by 70 percent
335
300
341
346
200
349
"2025"
352
Visit exxonmobil.com355
100
358
27
28
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
FILE INFO
NAME
44
Chad Harris
45
47
2040
Data list is used to drive the black
and
49
white chart, which is then used as a
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
40 52
are cut and pasted from the black and
white template and are highly 2025
accurate.
54
However, the color chart is NOT linked to
the database and is NOT driven by the
56
data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a
human. Therefore, the editor needs to
30 60 exxonmobilperspectives.com
Subscribe
2010not
thoroughly proof the final artwork,
63
JUST the data list.
50
CHART
OWNER
Local
Follow @exxonmobil
ATTENTION: OWNER
400
FILE INFO
500
Inter-reg
LNG share doubles to almost 20 percent
of gas demand in 2040
CHART
OWNER
600
AS OF
Local
Inter-reg
LNG
North AmericaDATA
emerges
as a09/21/2015
major exporter
due30,
to 2015
Only a quarterDATA
of global
gas
resources
AS OF
11/10/2015
Sept.
Oct.
20, 2015
AS 30
OF
"2010"
287
19
"2010"
"2025"
"2040"
unconventional
gas
will
be
produced
by
2040
APPROVED BY
APPROVED Cum
BY
Prod
Rem Reso
288
21
33
DATA AS OF 11/10/2015
14.9
33.7
Chad Harris 42.1
Chad
Harris
294
22Russia/Caspian
32
"2040"
8.53951121
23.35010
Asia Pacific LNG
exports grow,0.1
mostly serving
Gas resources equal more thanCum
200 Prod
years
10.5 intra28.5
Rem Reso
294
25North America
32
Asia293
demand 23Asia Pacific 33
of supply at current
10
20.2
"2040"demand
8.53951121
XXA
15XOM21.9
EOXXA
15XOM EO- 23.350105
Middle
East
11.1
14.4
20.7
303
25
32
Middle East gasAfrica
exports rise with
Resource estimates keepGasExpByReg.ai
rising as
GasSpplyBySrce.ai
10.7new pipeline
9.5 and
20.4
306
26
36
XXA
XXA
LNG310
investments
technologies
evolve
2.5
2.5
1.4
IN
ENERGY OUTLOOK ON
PAGE
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
27ROW
39
ATTENTION: OWNER
Russia/Caspian
expands lead as top natural gas exporter
DATA
AS OF 09/30/2015
AS OF
VERSION
35
30drive the black and
Data list is used to
30
25
25
20
Rem Res
Rem Reso
Cum Pro
Cum Prod
69
Energy today
and tomorrow
With more people using energy to improve their
lives, we estimate that global energy demand will
be 25 percent higher in 2040 than it was in 2014.
Meeting energy demand safely, reliably and
affordably while also minimizing risk and
environmental impact will require advanced
technology and expanded trade and investment.
It will require innovation. And it also will require
smart, practical energy choices by governments,
individuals and businesses.
Understanding the factors that drive the worlds
energy needs and likely choices to meet those
needs is the mission of The Outlook. By sharing
The Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden
that understanding among individuals, businesses
and governments. Because energy matters to
everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future.
70
71
Data
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs, unless otherwise noted)
2000
418
225
192
22
128
47
19
78
72
20
18
114
96
38
2010
525
230
295
30
202
97
29
81
73
27
30
113
94
43
2014
557
225
332
33
227
116
34
75
67
29
34
114
95
44
2025
643
227
416
43
284
147
47
74
65
36
42
118
96
45
2040
703
220
483
60
319
153
63
70
60
45
50
116
92
44
418
157
89
93
27
40
9
3
525
179
116
135
29
49
12
7
557
187
120
148
26
53
13
10
643
208
152
155
37
57
16
18
703
223
181
142
54
57
18
28
1.3%
1.0%
2.2%
0.4%
3.2%
0.6%
1.8%
5.5%
0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
-0.6%
2.6%
0.0%
0.8%
3.1%
0.9%
0.7%
1.6%
-0.2%
2.9%
0.3%
1.2%
4.1%
15%
11%
27%
5%
42%
7%
21%
81%
9%
7%
18%
-8%
47%
0%
12%
59%
26%
19%
50%
-4%
109%
7%
36%
187%
100%
34%
22%
26%
5%
10%
2%
2%
100%
32%
24%
24%
6%
9%
3%
3%
100%
32%
26%
20%
8%
8%
3%
4%
98
15
21
29
23
10
114
14
24
33
32
11
118
14
24
34
34
11
134
15
27
35
45
12
146
14
30
32
59
11
1.2%
0.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2.5%
0.4%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
-0.6%
1.8%
-0.6%
0.8%
0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
2.1%
-0.2%
14%
6%
13%
3%
31%
5%
9%
-2%
8%
-8%
31%
-9%
24%
3%
22%
-6%
72%
-5%
100%
12%
21%
29%
29%
10%
100%
11%
20%
26%
34%
9%
100%
10%
20%
22%
41%
7%
Transportation
Total
Oil
Biofuels
Gas
Other
81
80
0
0
1
101
97
3
1
1
108
102
3
2
1
123
113
4
4
1
138
122
6
7
2
1.2%
0.9%
2.9%
7.2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.5%
2.6%
4.5%
2.6%
0.9%
0.7%
2.8%
5.7%
2.6%
13%
11%
38%
116%
31%
12%
8%
48%
94%
48%
28%
20%
104%
319%
94%
100%
94%
3%
2%
1%
100%
92%
4%
3%
1%
100%
89%
5%
5%
2%
Industrial
Total
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity
Other
150
50
37
27
22
14
193
57
45
43
31
17
207
60
48
46
35
19
246
70
59
51
45
20
265
78
68
44
54
21
1.6%
1.5%
2.0%
0.9%
2.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
-1.0%
1.3%
0.1%
0.9%
1.0%
1.4%
-0.2%
1.7%
0.2%
18%
18%
24%
11%
29%
5%
8%
11%
14%
-14%
21%
2%
28%
31%
42%
-5%
56%
7%
100%
29%
23%
22%
17%
9%
100%
29%
24%
21%
18%
8%
100%
30%
26%
16%
20%
8%
144
12
31
62
27
9
0
4
193
10
46
88
29
12
1
8
207
11
47
97
26
13
2
11
245
10
62
100
37
16
6
14
281
8
76
95
54
18
11
19
1.5%
-0.9%
2.6%
0.2%
3.2%
1.8%
9.4%
2.7%
0.9%
-1.3%
1.4%
-0.3%
2.6%
0.8%
4.0%
2.0%
1.2%
-1.1%
1.9%
-0.1%
2.9%
1.2%
6.2%
2.3%
18%
-9%
33%
2%
42%
21%
168%
35%
15%
-17%
23%
-5%
47%
12%
79%
35%
36%
-25%
63%
-2%
109%
36%
381%
82%
100%
5%
23%
47%
13%
6%
1%
5%
100%
4%
25%
41%
15%
7%
2%
6%
100%
3%
27%
34%
19%
6%
4%
7%
13216
8601
4615
18604
9706
8897
20548
9526
11021
26771
10610
16161
33855
11582
22273
2.4%
1.0%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
2.7%
30%
11%
47%
26%
9%
38%
65%
22%
102%
100%
46%
54%
100%
40%
60%
100%
34%
66%
Regions
World
OECD
Non-OECD
Africa
Asia Pacific
China
India
Europe
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
North America
United States
Russia/Caspian
72
2014
2025
15%
1%
25%
31%
25%
27%
39%
-2%
-3%
23%
25%
4%
2%
4%
% change
2025
2040
9%
-3%
16%
39%
12%
3%
34%
-6%
-8%
23%
18%
-2%
-5%
-3%
2014
2040
26%
-2%
46%
83%
40%
32%
86%
-7%
-11%
51%
47%
1%
-3%
1%
Share of total
2014
100%
40%
60%
6%
41%
21%
6%
14%
12%
5%
6%
21%
17%
8%
2025
100%
35%
65%
7%
44%
23%
7%
12%
10%
6%
7%
18%
15%
7%
2040
100%
31%
69%
9%
45%
22%
9%
10%
9%
6%
7%
16%
13%
6%
2000
225
2010
230
2014
225
2025
227
2040
220
2014
2025
1%
% change
2025
2040
-3%
2014
2040
-2%
Share of total
2014
100%
2025
100%
2040
100%
Oil
98
93
90
87
79
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-4%
-9%
-12%
40%
38%
36%
Gas
47
54
55
65
70
1.6%
0.5%
1.0%
19%
8%
29%
24%
29%
32%
Coal
43
42
40
29
16
-2.8%
-3.8%
-3.4%
-27%
-44%
-59%
18%
13%
7%
Nuclear
23
24
20
23
27
1.3%
0.9%
1.1%
15%
15%
32%
9%
10%
12%
Biomass/waste
10
-0.2%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-2%
-10%
-11%
4%
4%
4%
Hydro
Other renewables
5
2
5
4
5
6
5
9
5
14
0.3%
4.3%
0.3%
2.7%
0.3%
3.4%
4%
59%
5%
49%
9%
136%
2%
3%
2%
4%
2%
6%
100%
End-use sectors
Residential/commercial
Total
46
50
48
49
47
0.2%
-0.2%
0.0%
2%
-3%
-1%
100%
100%
Oil
-1.7%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-17%
-31%
-42%
12%
10%
7%
Gas
16
17
16
17
16
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.1%
2%
-4%
-2%
34%
34%
34%
Biomass/waste
-0.5%
-1.7%
-1.2%
-5%
-23%
-27%
6%
5%
4%
Electricity
Other
17
2
21
3
20
2
22
3
24
2
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
-0.5%
0.6%
-0.1%
9%
5%
7%
-8%
16%
-3%
43%
5%
45%
5%
50%
5%
Transportation
Total
55
58
58
56
53
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-3%
-5%
-8%
100%
100%
100%
Oil
55
56
55
53
48
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-5%
-9%
-14%
96%
94%
89%
Biofuels
1.4%
1.7%
1.6%
16%
29%
50%
4%
4%
6%
Gas
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
1
16.1%
1.0%
6.6%
2.4%
10.5%
1.8%
415%
12%
161%
43%
1244%
59%
0%
1%
1%
1%
4%
1%
100%
Industrial
Total
71
68
69
74
74
0.6%
0.0%
0.3%
7%
0%
7%
100%
100%
Oil
29
27
27
28
27
0.4%
-0.1%
0.1%
4%
-2%
2%
39%
38%
37%
Gas
18
18
19
23
24
1.9%
0.2%
0.9%
22%
3%
27%
27%
31%
32%
Coal
-3.4%
-2.8%
-3.1%
-32%
-35%
-56%
10%
7%
4%
Electricity
Other
12
4
12
4
12
4
14
4
15
4
1.4%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.6%
1.0%
-0.3%
16%
0%
12%
-8%
30%
-8%
17%
6%
19%
6%
21%
5%
100%
Power generation
Primary
84
90
86
88
87
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
2%
0%
1%
100%
100%
Oil
-6.1%
-2.7%
-4.2%
-50%
-34%
-67%
3%
1%
1%
Gas
13
20
19
25
29
2.2%
1.0%
1.5%
28%
16%
48%
23%
28%
33%
Coal
35
34
32
23
12
-2.8%
-4.1%
-3.6%
-27%
-47%
-61%
37%
27%
14%
Nuclear
23
24
20
23
27
1.3%
0.9%
1.1%
15%
15%
32%
24%
27%
31%
Hydro
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
4%
5%
9%
5%
6%
6%
Wind
7.5%
3.6%
5.3%
122%
71%
279%
2%
4%
7%
Other renewables
1.3%
0.9%
1.1%
15%
14%
32%
7%
7%
9%
General note on data tables: Rounding may lead to minor differences between totals and the sum of their individual parts.
73
2000
192
2010
295
2014
332
2025
416
2040
483
2014
2025
25%
% change
2025
2040
16%
2014
2040
46%
Share of total
2014
100%
2025
100%
2040
100%
Oil
58
85
97
122
144
2.1%
1.1%
1.6%
26%
18%
49%
29%
29%
30%
Gas
42
62
66
87
110
2.6%
1.6%
2.0%
33%
26%
68%
20%
21%
23%
26%
Coal
50
93
108
126
126
1.4%
0.0%
0.6%
17%
0%
16%
33%
30%
Nuclear
13
27
8.2%
4.8%
6.3%
139%
103%
385%
2%
3%
6%
Biomass/waste
33
40
43
47
48
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
9%
2%
11%
13%
11%
10%
Hydro
Other renewables
4
1
7
3
9
4
11
9
13
15
2.4%
7.0%
0.9%
3.6%
1.6%
5.0%
30%
111%
15%
70%
50%
259%
3%
1%
3%
2%
3%
3%
100%
End-use sectors
Residential/commercial
Total
52
64
70
85
98
1.8%
1.0%
1.3%
21%
16%
40%
100%
100%
Oil
10
11
1.8%
0.7%
1.2%
22%
12%
36%
12%
12%
11%
Gas
11
14
2.8%
1.6%
2.1%
36%
26%
71%
11%
13%
14%
Biomass/waste
27
30
31
32
30
0.3%
-0.5%
-0.2%
3%
-7%
-4%
44%
38%
30%
Electricity
Other
6
8
11
8
14
9
23
9
36
8
4.6%
0.4%
2.9%
-0.7%
3.6%
-0.2%
63%
5%
55%
-10%
153%
-5%
20%
13%
27%
11%
36%
9%
Transportation
Total
26
43
51
67
85
2.5%
1.6%
2.0%
32%
27%
68%
100%
100%
100%
Oil
25
41
47
61
75
2.3%
1.4%
1.8%
29%
23%
59%
93%
91%
88%
Biofuels
5.3%
3.6%
4.3%
76%
71%
200%
2%
3%
4%
Gas
Other
0
0
1
1
2
1
3
1
5
2
5.9%
3.1%
3.9%
2.7%
4.7%
2.9%
88%
41%
77%
50%
232%
110%
3%
1%
4%
2%
6%
2%
100%
Industrial
Total
79
124
139
172
191
2.0%
0.7%
1.2%
24%
11%
38%
100%
100%
Oil
21
30
33
42
51
2.3%
1.2%
1.7%
29%
20%
55%
24%
25%
27%
Gas
19
27
29
36
44
2.1%
1.3%
1.6%
26%
21%
52%
21%
21%
23%
Coal
19
35
39
46
40
1.6%
-0.8%
0.2%
18%
-12%
4%
28%
27%
21%
Electricity
Other
9
10
19
13
23
15
31
16
39
17
2.9%
0.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2.1%
0.4%
36%
6%
25%
4%
70%
11%
17%
11%
18%
9%
20%
9%
100%
Power generation
74
Primary
60
103
121
157
194
2.4%
1.4%
1.8%
30%
23%
60%
100%
100%
Oil
0.3%
-1.1%
-0.5%
3%
-15%
-12%
7%
6%
4%
Gas
17
26
27
37
47
2.9%
1.6%
2.2%
37%
27%
75%
22%
24%
24%
Coal
27
54
66
76
82
1.4%
0.5%
0.9%
17%
8%
26%
54%
49%
42%
Nuclear
13
27
8.2%
4.8%
6.3%
139%
103%
385%
5%
9%
14%
Hydro
11
13
2.4%
0.9%
1.6%
30%
15%
50%
7%
7%
7%
Wind
12.9%
4.4%
7.9%
280%
91%
627%
1%
2%
2%
Other renewables
12
4.2%
2.9%
3.4%
57%
53%
140%
4%
5%
6%
2014
2025
% change
2025
2040
2014
2040
Share of total
2014
2025
2040
2000
2010
2014
2025
2040
AFRICA
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
22
5
4
3
0
10
0
0
30
8
5
4
0
13
0
0
33
8
5
4
0
15
0
0
43
12
7
5
0
17
1
0
60
19
10
7
1
20
1
1
2.5%
3.9%
3.1%
1.9%
2.0%
1.3%
6.4%
11.7%
2.2%
2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
13.5%
1.0%
3.4%
5.7%
2.3%
3.3%
2.8%
2.4%
8.5%
1.1%
4.6%
8.2%
31%
52%
40%
23%
24%
15%
97%
238%
39%
52%
46%
49%
571%
16%
65%
130%
83%
131%
104%
83%
732%
34%
225%
677%
100%
25%
16%
12%
0%
46%
1%
0%
100%
29%
17%
11%
0%
40%
2%
1%
100%
31%
18%
12%
2%
33%
2%
1%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
20
9
3
7
1
4
26
12
4
10
2
6
29
14
5
10
2
6
37
18
7
13
4
9
51
23
10
18
7
16
2.3%
2.2%
3.6%
2.0%
4.9%
4.0%
2.0%
1.6%
2.6%
2.3%
4.4%
3.8%
2.2%
1.9%
3.0%
2.1%
4.6%
3.9%
29%
27%
47%
24%
70%
54%
35%
28%
46%
40%
90%
76%
75%
62%
115%
73%
222%
172%
100%
48%
17%
35%
7%
18%
100%
47%
19%
34%
10%
22%
100%
45%
21%
35%
14%
27%
ASIA PACIFIC
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
128
43
12
45
5
20
2
1
202
57
21
89
6
23
4
2
227
62
24
104
4
24
5
3
284
75
38
119
13
25
7
7
319
85
51
117
24
24
7
12
2.0%
1.6%
4.1%
1.2%
12.0%
0.4%
2.6%
7.0%
0.8%
0.8%
2.0%
-0.1%
4.1%
-0.5%
0.4%
3.4%
1.3%
1.2%
2.9%
0.4%
7.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
4.9%
25%
19%
55%
14%
249%
5%
33%
111%
12%
13%
34%
-2%
83%
-7%
7%
65%
40%
35%
108%
12%
539%
-3%
42%
249%
100%
27%
11%
46%
2%
11%
2%
1%
100%
26%
13%
42%
5%
9%
2%
2%
100%
27%
16%
37%
8%
7%
2%
4%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
100
33
18
49
12
41
152
41
28
83
24
77
170
44
32
94
30
91
211
53
42
116
43
119
235
60
53
122
56
144
2.0%
1.8%
2.4%
2.0%
3.3%
2.4%
0.7%
0.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1.8%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.9%
1.0%
2.5%
1.8%
24%
22%
29%
24%
43%
30%
11%
12%
26%
5%
31%
21%
38%
37%
63%
30%
88%
58%
100%
26%
19%
55%
18%
40%
100%
25%
20%
55%
20%
42%
100%
26%
22%
52%
24%
45%
EUROPE
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
78
32
17
14
10
3
2
0
81
31
20
13
10
5
2
2
75
28
16
12
9
5
2
2
74
26
19
9
9
6
2
4
70
24
20
4
10
5
2
5
-0.1%
-0.6%
1.4%
-2.8%
-0.3%
0.5%
0.0%
4.3%
-0.4%
-0.7%
0.4%
-4.6%
0.6%
-0.7%
0.2%
2.2%
-0.3%
-0.7%
0.8%
-3.9%
0.2%
-0.2%
0.2%
3.1%
-2%
-7%
17%
-27%
-4%
5%
0%
60%
-6%
-10%
6%
-51%
10%
-9%
4%
38%
-7%
-16%
23%
-64%
6%
-5%
4%
120%
100%
37%
21%
16%
12%
7%
3%
3%
100%
35%
25%
12%
12%
8%
3%
5%
100%
34%
28%
6%
14%
7%
3%
7%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
61
18
17
25
10
29
64
21
19
24
12
32
59
19
18
23
11
30
59
20
17
23
12
29
57
19
17
21
13
28
0.0%
0.5%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.4%
0.5%
-0.2%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.3%
0.6%
-0.2%
1%
5%
-3%
-1%
9%
-2%
-5%
-6%
-2%
-6%
7%
-3%
-4%
-1%
-5%
-6%
17%
-4%
100%
32%
30%
39%
19%
39%
100%
33%
29%
38%
20%
39%
100%
33%
29%
38%
23%
40%
75
Regions
2014
2025
% change
2025
2040
2014
2040
Share of total
2014
2025
2040
2000
2010
2014
2025
2040
LATIN AMERICA
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
20
10
4
1
0
3
2
0
27
13
6
1
0
4
2
1
29
14
6
1
0
5
2
1
36
16
8
2
0
5
3
2
45
19
12
2
0
5
4
3
1.9%
1.5%
2.6%
2.4%
5.1%
0.6%
1.9%
6.1%
1.4%
0.9%
2.5%
1.3%
1.7%
0.1%
1.3%
3.5%
1.6%
1.2%
2.5%
1.8%
3.2%
0.3%
1.6%
4.6%
23%
17%
32%
29%
73%
6%
23%
91%
23%
15%
44%
22%
30%
2%
22%
67%
51%
35%
91%
57%
125%
8%
49%
219%
100%
47%
21%
4%
1%
15%
8%
3%
100%
45%
22%
4%
1%
13%
8%
5%
100%
42%
26%
4%
1%
11%
8%
7%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
18
4
5
9
2
4
24
4
7
12
3
6
26
5
9
13
4
7
32
5
11
15
5
10
39
6
13
20
7
13
1.7%
1.5%
1.9%
1.7%
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
1.1%
1.2%
1.7%
2.3%
1.8%
1.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
2.6%
2.3%
21%
18%
23%
21%
38%
37%
24%
17%
20%
29%
40%
32%
49%
38%
47%
55%
93%
80%
100%
18%
33%
49%
14%
24%
100%
17%
34%
49%
16%
27%
100%
16%
33%
51%
18%
28%
MIDDLE EAST
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
18
11
7
0
0
0
0
0
30
16
13
0
0
0
0
0
34
18
15
0
0
0
0
0
42
21
20
0
0
0
0
0
50
23
24
0
1
0
0
1
2.0%
1.6%
2.3%
-3.0%
24.8%
7.3%
2.4%
9.2%
1.1%
0.6%
1.4%
-3.8%
7.4%
6.3%
2.2%
5.8%
1.5%
1.0%
1.8%
-3.5%
14.5%
6.7%
2.3%
7.2%
25%
19%
28%
-28%
1048%
117%
30%
163%
18%
9%
23%
-44%
192%
150%
38%
132%
47%
30%
57%
-60%
3258%
441%
80%
510%
100%
52%
46%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
50%
47%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
100%
46%
49%
0%
3%
0%
0%
1%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
14
3
4
7
1
5
23
4
6
12
3
9
26
5
7
14
3
10
33
6
9
18
5
14
40
7
10
22
7
17
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
2.3%
4.1%
2.6%
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
1.3%
2.3%
1.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.2%
1.7%
3.1%
1.8%
25%
25%
18%
28%
55%
33%
20%
25%
15%
22%
41%
20%
50%
56%
36%
56%
119%
60%
100%
18%
28%
54%
12%
31%
100%
18%
26%
56%
14%
33%
100%
19%
25%
56%
17%
34%
NORTH AMERICA
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
114
49
26
23
9
4
2
1
113
47
28
21
10
3
2
2
114
46
31
19
10
3
2
3
118
47
38
14
10
3
2
4
116
44
41
6
13
2
3
7
0.3%
0.2%
1.8%
-2.8%
0.2%
-1.5%
0.6%
3.8%
-0.2%
-0.4%
0.6%
-5.2%
1.5%
-1.0%
0.4%
2.9%
0.0%
-0.2%
1.1%
-4.2%
1.0%
-1.2%
0.5%
3.3%
4%
2%
21%
-26%
2%
-15%
6%
51%
-2%
-6%
9%
-55%
26%
-14%
7%
54%
1%
-4%
32%
-67%
28%
-27%
14%
132%
100%
40%
27%
17%
9%
3%
2%
3%
100%
40%
32%
12%
8%
2%
2%
4%
100%
38%
35%
5%
11%
2%
2%
6%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
86
22
31
34
15
42
86
23
32
32
16
43
88
23
33
33
16
42
94
23
33
38
18
43
93
23
31
39
20
43
0.5%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.1%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.2%
0.7%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.1%
6%
0%
-1%
17%
12%
2%
-1%
0%
-6%
3%
11%
0%
5%
0%
-7%
20%
24%
2%
100%
26%
37%
37%
18%
37%
100%
24%
35%
41%
19%
36%
100%
25%
33%
42%
21%
37%
76
2014
2025
% change
2025
2040
2014
2040
Share of total
2014
2025
2040
2000
2010
2014
2025
2040
RUSSIA/CASPIAN
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
38
8
20
7
2
0
1
0
43
8
23
7
3
0
1
0
44
10
22
7
3
0
1
0
45
10
23
7
4
0
1
0
44
10
23
5
4
0
1
0
0.3%
0.0%
0.4%
-0.4%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
6.1%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-1.6%
1.2%
-0.1%
0.2%
4.6%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.1%
-1.1%
1.8%
0.1%
0.1%
5.2%
4%
0%
5%
-5%
34%
5%
1%
91%
-3%
-2%
-3%
-21%
20%
-2%
3%
96%
1%
-2%
2%
-25%
61%
3%
3%
274%
100%
24%
51%
16%
6%
1%
2%
0%
100%
23%
51%
15%
8%
1%
2%
0%
100%
23%
51%
12%
10%
1%
2%
0%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity)
Residential/commercial
Transportation
Industrial
Memo: electricity demand
Power generation fuel1
29
9
3
17
3
19
33
9
4
20
4
20
35
9
4
21
4
20
36
9
5
23
5
21
35
8
5
22
6
20
0.4%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
1.6%
0.2%
-0.2%
-0.6%
0.3%
-0.1%
1.0%
-0.2%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
1.2%
0.0%
5%
-2%
4%
8%
19%
2%
-3%
-9%
4%
-2%
16%
-3%
1%
-11%
8%
5%
38%
0%
100%
26%
13%
61%
12%
46%
100%
24%
13%
63%
14%
45%
100%
23%
14%
64%
17%
46%
49
38
11
1
12
2
1
16
14
3
1
15
13
1
65
44
21
2
19
6
2
18
17
4
2
18
15
2
72
47
25
2
22
8
2
19
17
5
2
19
16
2
101
59
42
4
36
15
4
23
21
6
4
26
22
3
153
79
74
6
60
29
9
30
26
10
6
36
30
4
3.1%
2.2%
4.7%
4.4%
4.4%
6.1%
6.1%
1.9%
1.8%
2.9%
3.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.4%
2.8%
1.9%
3.9%
4.0%
3.6%
4.2%
5.1%
1.7%
1.6%
2.9%
3.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.1%
4.2%
4.2%
3.9%
5.0%
5.5%
1.8%
1.7%
2.9%
3.4%
2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
41%
27%
65%
61%
60%
91%
92%
23%
22%
37%
49%
33%
33%
30%
51%
33%
77%
80%
69%
86%
111%
29%
27%
54%
61%
41%
41%
50%
113%
70%
192%
190%
170%
256%
307%
59%
55%
112%
141%
88%
87%
95%
100%
65%
35%
3%
31%
11%
3%
26%
24%
6%
3%
27%
23%
3%
100%
59%
41%
4%
35%
15%
4%
23%
21%
6%
4%
25%
21%
3%
100%
52%
48%
4%
39%
19%
6%
20%
17%
6%
4%
24%
20%
3%
8.1
5.2
14.1
15.4
10.8
16.4
17.0
4.4
4.4
6.5
14.3
6.4
6.3
21.1
7.7
4.8
13.1
14.8
10.2
14.3
15.6
4.0
3.9
6.4
14.1
6.0
5.8
19.5
6.4
3.8
10.0
12.1
7.9
9.5
11.2
3.2
3.1
5.7
11.8
4.6
4.4
15.6
4.6
2.8
6.6
9.4
5.3
5.3
7.1
2.3
2.3
4.6
8.6
3.2
3.0
10.1
-1.8%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-1.8%
-2.2%
-3.6%
-2.9%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-1.0%
-1.6%
-2.3%
-2.4%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.1%
-2.8%
-1.7%
-2.7%
-3.8%
-3.0%
-2.1%
-2.1%
-1.5%
-2.1%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-2.9%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-3.8%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-2.1%
-1.3%
-1.9%
-2.4%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-18%
-21%
-24%
-18%
-22%
-33%
-28%
-20%
-21%
-11%
-17%
-22%
-24%
-20%
-28%
-28%
-34%
-23%
-33%
-44%
-37%
-27%
-27%
-20%
-27%
-31%
-32%
-35%
-41%
-42%
-50%
-37%
-48%
-63%
-54%
-42%
-42%
-29%
-39%
-46%
-48%
-48%
30.7
12.8
17.9
1.2
13.3
7.4
1.7
4.3
3.9
1.3
1.8
6.5
5.5
2.5
32.7
12.4
20.2
1.2
15.2
8.7
2.1
3.9
3.4
1.4
2.0
6.4
5.5
2.6
36.0
11.6
24.4
1.7
17.9
10.2
2.9
3.5
3.0
1.7
2.3
6.3
5.1
2.6
36.4
9.8
26.6
2.5
18.8
9.3
3.9
2.9
2.4
2.1
2.5
5.3
4.2
2.4
0.9%
-0.7%
1.7%
3.1%
1.5%
1.4%
3.0%
-0.8%
-1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
-0.2%
-0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
-1.1%
0.6%
2.6%
0.3%
-0.6%
1.9%
-1.3%
-1.5%
1.4%
0.5%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-0.5%
0.4%
-0.9%
1.1%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
2.4%
-1.1%
-1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.3%
10%
-7%
21%
39%
18%
17%
38%
-8%
-11%
22%
16%
-3%
-6%
1%
1%
-15%
9%
48%
5%
-9%
33%
-18%
-21%
22%
8%
-16%
-19%
-8%
12%
-21%
32%
106%
23%
7%
84%
-25%
-29%
49%
25%
-18%
-24%
-7%
100%
38%
62%
4%
47%
27%
6%
12%
10%
4%
6%
20%
17%
8%
100%
32%
68%
5%
50%
28%
8%
10%
8%
5%
6%
17%
14%
7%
100%
27%
73%
7%
51%
26%
11%
8%
7%
6%
7%
15%
11%
7%
77
Glossary
Billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) This is used to define volumetric rates of natural gas.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) A liquid fuel produced in association with natural gas. NGLs
One billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is enough to meet about 2 percent of the
are components of natural gas that are separated from the gaseous state into liquid form
natural gas used in homes around the world. Six billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is
34 member nations that promote policies that will improve the economic and social
measure any type of energy source. The energy content of one gallon of gasoline is about
population, economic and energy demand growth closely resemble that of the other
contained in a 10,000 psi tank. This hydrogen is passed through a fuel cell that then
countries in the Key Growth group so they have been included there. As such, the
OECD32 is used to denote the remaining countries of the OECD when a comparison
to the Key Growth countries is made.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) A type of light duty vehicle that uses an electric
countries include Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South
motor to drive the wheels. Unlike other electric vehicles, a PHEV also has a conventional
internal combustion engine (ICE) that can charge its battery using petroleum fuels
if needed.
Light-duty vehicle (LDV) A classification of road vehicles that includes cars, light trucks
and sport-utility vehicles (SUV).
Primary energy Includes energy in the form of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro,
geothermal, wind, solar and bioenergy sources (biofuels, municipal solid waste, traditional
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Natural gas (predominantly methane) that has been
biomass). It does not include electricity or market heat, which are secondary energy types
Secondary energy Energy types reflecting the conversion or production of energy from
Million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBDOE) This term provides a standardized
Watt A unit of electrical power, equal to one joule per second. A 1-gigawatt power plant
unit of measure for different types of energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) based on
can meet the electricity demand of more than 500,000 homes in the U.S. (Kilowatt (kW)
energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil. One million oil-equivalent barrels per
= 1,000 watts; Gigawatt (GW) = 1,000,000,000 watts; Terawatt (TW) = 1012 watts).
day is enough energy to fuel about 5 percent of the light-duty vehicles on the worlds
roads today.
78
79
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporations internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International
Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This report includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic
regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting
Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
SP-142