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The basic difference between the two is that while in a F D , an experiment has actually
been performed to get a listing of the frequencies of all possible outcomes, a P D is a
listing of probabilities of all the possible outcomes that could result if the experiment
were done.
If we are talking about the P D of a particular variable, what we mean is a list of distinct
numerical values of the variable along with their associated probabilities.
If we are talking about a three toss experiment and the variable x that we are interested
in is the no. of heads, then the P D is as given below.
x 0 1 2 3
Random Variable is one that takes different values in as a result of the outcomes of a
random experiment. A ll the values that a random variable can take are equally likely
and are known only after the conduct of the experiment.
A Discrete Random Variable is a random variable that can take only a limited no of
values ( no of heads , people, defects etc)while A Continuous Random Variable is
one that can take any value within a range(price of an item, height/weight of students in
a class etc).
Expected Value of a random variable is the value that one would expect it to take. For
example, one would expect to get 10 heads in 20 tosses. If one were to get 18 heads in
20 tosses, the fairness of the coin in use could be questioned.
To get the expected value of a discrete random variable, given its P D, we just get the
value of p1x1+p2x2+…..
Concepts of Expected Values play a very vital role in managerial decision making.
Binomial Distribution
Conditions to be satisfied:
1. Each observation can be defined only in 2 ways, say, either a success or failure.
2. Probability of success or failure remains the same during the time of the experiment
for every trial, for a specific no of trials.
3. The two possible outcomes are independent of each other.
P( 2H ) = p2 ;
P(1H,1T ) = pq + qp ;
P( 2T) = q2
In general, probability of ‘r’ successes in ‘n’ trials, where ‘p’ and ‘q’ are the
probabilities of success and failure respectively is given by
n
P(r) = Cr pr q(n-r)
Where ‘n’ is large, then calculations become very tedious and hence we can resort to
the use of binomial tables.
Poisson Distribution
Poisson Process:
Average no of defectives in a batch, No of vehicles arriving at a check post in a specific
interval of time, No of calls received by a telephone operator, No of accidents in an
intersection etc., are examples of a Poisson Process.
Characteristics:
1. The events occur independently; i.e., the occurrence of a subsequent event is not at
all influenced by the occurrence of an earlier event.
4. In an extremely small portion of the time period, the probability of two or more
occurrences of an event is negligible.
Poisson Probabilities:
If λ is the average no of arrivals of vehicles, in a specified time, at a check point,
and if the arrivals follow a Poisson distribution, then the probability that there
will be exactly x arrivals in the next period ( of specified time ), is given by
P(x) = [ λ x x e –λ ] ÷x!
There are tables for getting values of ex as well as the Poisson probabilities directly once
λ is defined and hence tedious calculations can be avoided.