Preparation to test 1

Solutions
#1
Binomial Distribution
A stick with tour group
P(A) = 0,27
B own experience
P(B) = 0,73
a)
B success
N=5
P=0,73
F(x3) - ?
F(x3) = 1- F(x>3) = 1 F(x=4) F(x=5) = 1 0,383 0,207 = 0,41
f ( x k ) Cnk p k (1 p ) n k
C nk

n!
k!( n k )!

5!
F(x=4) = 4!1! * (0,73) 4 * (0,27)1 = 0,383
5!
F(x=5) = 5!0!

* (0,73) 5 * (0,27) 0 = 0,207

b) N=4
P=0,27
A success
F(x 2) -?
F(x 2) = 1-F(x<2) = 1- F(x=0)- f(x=1)= 1-0,283-0,420=0,297
f ( x k ) C nk p k (1 p) nk
C nk

n!
k!( n k )!

F(x=0)=

4!
0! 4!

F(x=1)=

4!
1!3!

(0,27) 0 * (0,73) 4 =0,283

* (0,27)1 * (0,73) 3 = 0,42

#2
Binomial Distribution
A system will detect attack
P(A)= 0,85
a) n=4 (four system operates independently)
we are asked about probability that at least two of the systems will not detect the attack therefore
P=1-0,85 = 0,15
F(x 2) - ?
F(x 2) = 1 f(x<2) = 1- f(x=0) f(x=1) = 1-0,522-0,368 = 0,11
F(x=0) = Cnk p k (1 p ) n k = C 40 (0,15) 0 (0,85) 4 =

4!
1 (0,85) 4 =0,522
0!4!

F(x=1) = Cnk p k (1 p ) n k = C 41 (0,15)1 (0,85) 3 =

4!
0,15 (0,85) 3 = 0,368
1!3!

b) n = 5 (because it is written that five systems installed)

since we are asked about probability that at most three of the systems will detect the attack
P=0,85
F(X 3) -?
F(X 3) = 1 f(x>3) = 1 f (x=4) F(x=5) = 1 0,391 0,443 =0,166
5!
(0,85) 4 0,15 = 0,391
4!1!
5!
(0,85) 5 1 = 0,443
= C 55 (0,85) 5 (0,15) 0 =
5!0!

F(x=4) = Cnk p k (1 p ) n k = C 54 (0,85) 4 (0,15)1 =

F(x=5) = Cnk p k (1 p ) n k

#3
Poisson Distribution
3,6 (Average number of bank failures per year)
a)
Expected value = 3,6
Standard deviation = = 3,6 =1,924
b)
To find the probability of the event we should use Cumulative probability table (Lecture #4)
P ( x 8) =0,988 (0,988 is the value in the table at the intersection of 3,6 and k=8)
P ( x 3) = 1 p(x 3 ) = 1 0,515 = 0,485 (0,515 is the value in the table at the intersection of
3,6 and k=3)

P ( x 5) =p(x 5) p(x 4) =0,844-0,706=0,138 (0,844 is the value in the table at the

intersection of 3,6 and k=5; 0,706 is the value in the table at the intersection of 3,6 and

k=4)
#4
Poisson Distribution
3,8 (average number of fatalities per month)

a)
Expected value = 3,8
Standard deviation = = 3,8 =1,949
b)
To find the probability of the event we should use Cumulative probability table (Lecture #4)
P ( x 1) =0,107 (0,107 is the value in the table at the intersection of 3,8 and k=1)

P ( x 3) = 1 p(x 3) = 1 -0,473 =0,527 (0,473 is the value in the table at the intersection of
3,8 and k=3)
P( x 2) =p(x 2) -p(x 1) =0,269-0,107 = 0,162 (0,269 is the value in the table at the
intersection of 3,8 and k=2; 0,107 is the value in the table at the intersection of 3,8 and

k=1)
$5
Hypergeometric Distribution
a)
N = 12 (amount of all candidates)
r = 7 (Number of Successes = number of Finance majors)
n = 5 (Number of elements drawn = number of randomly selected candidates)
P(x 3) =?
P(x 3) =1-p(x>3) = 1- p(x=4) p(x=5)=1-0,22-0,0265=0,7535
n!
C xC n x
p( x) r nN r Cnk
k
!
(
n
k )!
CN
7!

5!

C 74 C 51 4!3! 1!4!
P(x=4)=
=
=0,22
12!
C125
5!7!

7!

5!

C 75 C 50 5!2! 0!5!
P(x=5)=
=
0,0265
12!
C125
5!7!

b)
N = 12 (amount of all candidates)

= 5 (Number of Successes = number of Accounting majors)

n = 5 (Number of elements drawn = number of randomly selected candidates)
P(x 2) =?
P(x 2) =1-p(x<2) = 1- p(x=1) p(x=0) = 1-0,0265-0,221=0,7525
n!
CrxC Nn xr
C nk
p( x)
n
k
!
(
n
k )!
CN
5!
7!

C C
0!5! 5!2!
P(x=0)=
=
=0,0265
5
12!
C12
5!7!
0
5

5
7

5!
7!

C C
1!4! 4!3!
P(x=1)=
=
=0,221
5
12!
C12
5!7!
1
5

4
7

#6
Hypergeometric Distribution
N=12
n=5
a)
r=4
p(x 2) =?
p(x 2) =1-p(x<2)=1-p(x=0)-p(x=1)
Continue calculation using formula p ( x)

CrxC Nn xr
(similar to #5)
C Nn

b) r=6
p(x<2) =p(x=0)+p(x=1)

CrxC Nn xr
Continue calculation using formula p( x)
(similar to #5)
C Nn
#9
Normal Distribution

= 32 day and = 9 days.

a. P (35 x 40) =P(

35 32
40 32
z
)=P(0,33 z 0,88 ) = 0,3106-0,1293=0,1813
9
9

Area under z (0;0,33)= 0,1293 (from z table)

Area under z (0;0,88)= 0,3106 (from z table)
Probability of z(0,33;0,88)= 0,3106-0,1293=0,1813

38 32
)=p(z>0,66)= 1- p(z 0,66 ) = 1 (0,5+0,2454)=0,2546
9
20 32
40 32
P ( 20 x 40) = p(
z
) =p(-1,3 z 0,88) =0,4032+0,3106=0,7138
9
9

b. P( x 38) = p(z>
c.

#10
Normal Distribution

=200 and = 40

180 200
220 200
z
) =p(0,5 z 0,5) =0,1915+0,1915=0,383
40
40
250 200
) =p(z 1,25) =1- p(x<1,25)=1-(0,5+0,3944)=0,1056
b. P ( x 250) =P(z
40
225 200
250 200
z
)=
c. P (225 x 250) = P (
40
40
P (0.62 z 1.25) P (0 z 1.25) P (0 z 0.62) 0.1587

a. P(180 x 220) =P(