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March 4, 2016
In Tamilnadu; Vijaykanth's DMDK was part of AIADMK alliance in last election. Currently it has
been analysed in "Others". The DMK+ includes Congress. A lot will depend on which way
Vijaykanth decides to contest. He still holds about 5% votes and that could be critical in final
adjustments of seats.
Similarly the BJP going with AIADMK could make the state bipolar. Vote percentagewise, AIADMK's
vote share may fall to 41.1 pc, down from 51.9 pc last time, while the DMK-led alliance's vote share
may stay stable at 39.5 pc. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 5.0, from 2.2 last time.
In the northeastern state of Assam, the BJP-AGP alliance is projected to win 57 seats in a House of
126, seven short of majority. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress party is projected to win 44
seats, down from 78 it won five years ago. Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front
is projected to win 19 seats, one up from last time, while 'Others' may win six.
Voting percentagewise, BJP-AGP combine is projected to get 35 pc, up from 33.9 pc last time, while
the ruling Congress voteshare may be reduced to 35.6 from 39.4 last time. In Assam the survey
was conducted before AGP and BJP tie up was announced. The AGP figures in this survey are part
of "Others". Full impact of AGP+BJP alliance will be known only in the next round of survey. After
AGP-BJP tie up the NDA number could increase; but only slightly as AGP today commands less than
5% votes in the state. However any "strategic" understanding between INC and AUDF could tilt
the scale against NDA.
METHODOLOGY
Random stratified sample of 14353 interviews covering all assembly segments in the poll bound
states state during last 4 weeks. Long term trends of historical data from @cvoterindia exit polls
archives of 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2014 elections and CVoter Tracking poll conducted during last
60 months. Margin of error is +/-3% at State level and +/- 5% at Regional level.
Total Sample Size For Round 1Survey: 14353
State
Assam
West Bengal
Kerala
Tamilnadu
Total
Sample Size
2941
4833
3098
3481
14353
Party/Front
INC
BJP+
AIUDF
OTHERS
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
LDF
UDF
NDA
OTHERS
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
ADMK+
DMK+
BJP+
OTHERS
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
AITC
INC
CPM+
BJP
Oth
Votes_2011
39.4
33.9
12.6
14.2
100.0
43.6
45.8
6.1
4.5
100.0
51.9
39.5
2.2
6.4
100.0
38.9
9.1
39.7
4.1
8.2
100.0
March_2016_W1
35.6
35.0
13.4
16.0
100.0
44.6
39.1
11.4
4.9
100.0
41.1
39.5
5.0
14.4
100.0
37.1
9.5
34.6
10.8
8.0
100.0
Swing
-3.8
1.1
0.8
1.8
0.0
1.0
-6.7
5.3
0.4
0.0
-10.8
0.0
2.8
8.0
0.0
-1.8
0.4
-5.1
6.7
-0.2
0.0
Party/Front
INC
BJP+
AIUDF
OTHERS
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
LDF
UDF
NDA
OTHERS
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
ADMK+
DMK+
BJP+
OTHERS
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
AITC
INC
CPM+
BJP
Oth
Seats_2011
78
27
18
3
126
66
72
0
2
140
203
31
0
0
234
184
42
60
0
8
294
March_2016_W1
44
57
19
6
126
89
49
1
1
140
116
101
0
17
234
156
13
114
4
7
294
Change
-34
30
1
3
0
23
-23
1
-1
0
-87
70
0
17
0
-28
-29
54
4
-1
0
STATE
EXPLAINATION
WHAT IF
ASSAM
KERALA
TAMILNADU
WEST BENGAL