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Introduction
Occupational risk management has become more and more the standard to which leading
companies aspire. Since before OSHA was created, most of the safety profession focused
on compliance and incident analysis. Insurance companies for years have been touting
incident and loss analysis as the basis for predicting the future trends in loss. In addition,
many risk managers have been focusing on transfer of risk, rather than risk reduction. While
incident trend analysis is a valuable exercise, as leading companies reduce the number of
losses, the value in using this data as a predictive index diminishes. In fact, we have seen
seminar after seminar and publication after publication espouse the value of looking at risk
for your predictive data.
The plethora of recent risk publications on the national and international levels further
supports the paradigm shift from the focus on managing to incidence rates to one where risk
reduction becomes the leading data points and targets. While risk assessment
methodologies have been around for years (MIL-STD-882D-1993/2000), more recently
publications from ISO (OHSAS 18001/2-1999/2007; 31000-2009) and ANSI (B11-TR32000; Z10-2005/2012; Z590.3-2011) have been proliferating (just to name a few). Safety
Management Systems, Like OHSAS 18001 and ANSI Z10 have made risk assessment one
of the fundamentals of planning (per the Deming Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle), so the data is
available for risk management (Do, Check, Act).
There are several keys to successful risk assessment, therefore, to also having the
right data available for risk management. However, some of these keys have not been
standardized, leaving confusion and variability for safety professionals to figure out. In its
simplest terms, there are two risk factors, severity (consequence) and probability (likelihood).
A matrix is used to determine the risk based on the product of these two factors. Once of
the challenges we face is that there is no one universal matrix. B11 uses a 44 matrix, Z10 a
45, and DoD a 54. Another key is the risk factor definitions. While terms like likely
or occasional are used to reference the potential frequency of an event or exposure, none
of the referenced documents further define these terms. Similarly, severity terms like
catastrophic or minor provide no clear direction how to classify events or exposures.
This leaves risk assessors with no standards or definitions from which to develop, let
Description
Category
Catastrophic
incorporating appropriate technology and work methods criteria during the design
processes.
This is viewed as superior to elimination, although along the same lines, but avoids the
entry of the hazard into the workplace altogether, like no more use of ladders.
Moving from risk assessment to risk management typically involves the application of
a framework.
Outline
The following learning objectives are thus presented to help organizations better define and
use the risk assessment and risk management concepts.
Design risk assessments to yield the accurate data
Assess internal processes for prevention through design efforts and
Use Risk Assessment data to develop leading metrics to drive risk reductions as a
function of management.
Probable
Occasional
Remote
Not likely to occur, or task is performed less than one or two times a
day, or duration may be under a few hours a month.
May occur only under exceptional circumstances, or so remote as to be near
zero in probability of exposure
Improbable
Probability
Frequent
Probable
Occasional
Remote
Improbable
High
Medium
Severity
Catastrophic
1
2
4
8
12
1-5
10-17
Critical
3
5
6
10
15
Marginal
7
9
11
14
17
Serious
Low
Negligible
13
16
18
19
20
6-9
18-20
Yr 1
Yr 2
Goal
Exhibit 5. Critical Control Conformance Rates
One of the primary metric leading companies use is critical control conformance
rate. If you have followed a defined methodology, you would be able to determine
where your critical controls are for your High Risks or Serious Severities. Inspection
and observation programs can then target the collection of this data, to include
verification of learning (i.e., was the communication part of risk management
successful?).
Closure Volume and Rates
If the new paradigm is to measure change, and risk reductions, then both the volume of
change and the closure rate of the associate action plans needs to be a one of our leading
metrics. We want volume of change, and we want closure. The rate of closure can be
measured any number of ways; i.e., closed on time, closed within 30 days, etc.
Summary
The future of risk management is upon us. More and more, leading companies are
measuring risk and risk reductions as their definition of safety performance.
Unfortunately, with the proliferation of risk related standards and publications,
consistently and definitions are becoming more widespread, instead of more succinct
and standardized. It is incumbent upon us as safety professionals to recognize these
inconsistencies, and help define them for our industry and organizations.
Bibliography
American National Standards Institute (ANSI). B11-TR3-2000. Risk Assessment and Risk
Reduction - A Guide to Estimate, Evaluate and Reduce Risks Associated with
Machine Tools.
________. Z 10-2005/2012. Occupational Health and Safety Management System.
________. Z 590.3 - 2011. Prevention through Design. Guidelines for Addressing
Occupational Hazards and Risks in Design and Redesign Processes.
American Society of Safety Engineers (ASSE). Risk Assessment Institute: Advancing
Excellence in OSH Risk Assessment and Management. (http://www.oshrisk.org/).
Department of Defense MIL-STD-882D-1993/2000. Standard Practice for System Safety.
Esposito, P. 2013. "Sustainability at any Speed. Getting to that Higher Level of Safety
Program Maturity." Presented at the ASSE Professional Development Conference, June
24-27, Las Vegas, NV.
________. Autumn, 2010. Building on Your VPP Success. The Leader, Voluntary
Protection Program Participants Association (VPPPA) quarterly publication.
International Organization for Standardization (ISO). ISO 31000-2009. Risk management
Principles and guidelines.
________. ISO Guide 73:2009. Risk management Vocabulary.
________. ISO/IEC 31010:2009. Risk management Risk assessment techniques. (Also ANSI
Z690.2).
Occupational Health and Safety Advisory Services (OHSAS). OHSAS 18001/2-1999/2007.
Occupational Health and Safety Management System (OHSMS).
Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). Publication 3071: 2002. Job Hazard
Analysis.