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Bottleneck Detection of Manufacturing Systems

Using Data Driven Method
CONFERENCE PAPER AUGUST 2007
DOI: 10.1109/ISAM.2007.4288452 Source: IEEE Xplore

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Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE

International Symposium on Assembly and Manufacturing
Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA, July 22-25, 2007

MoB2.1

Bottleneck Detection of Manufacturing Systems

Using Data Driven Method
Lin Li, Qing Chang, Jun Ni, Guoxian Xiao, and Stephan Biller
detection using an analytical model [1][4] and detection
using a simulation model [5][6]. For the analytical method,
the machine performance metrics such as machine-up-down
and processing time are assumed to be exponentially
distributed. No closed form expressions have been found for
the throughput analysis of serial production lines with more
than two workstations. The accepted method for analyzing
the longer lines is following the heuristic rule of
decomposition. This decomposition approach analyzes the
station-buffer-station case iteratively as the building block
for longer production lines [7]. Using this heuristic rule, the
fundamental challenge is how to model the two-station
problem. For the two-station problem, two basic models
considering the reliability are often discussed in the
literature to establish the closed form expression: the
Bernoulli model [8][10] and the Markovian model [11]
[12]. Reference [13] proposed an indirect method to identify
the bottleneck. This method described a way of comparison
between two neighboring machines: if the blockage time of
upstream machine was higher than the starvation time of the
downstream machine, bottleneck was downstream;
otherwise bottleneck was upstream. By assuming reliability
performance follow the Markovian model, analytical
verification result was obtained for a scenario with two
machines and one buffer.
Another widely used method for analyzing system
throughput and detecting bottleneck is simulation method,
which has been adopted in industry [14][15]. In the
simulation method, discrete event simulation models are
often created for a production line. Once these models have
been constructed, throughput analysis must be carried out
within the simulation model to detect any bottlenecks. The
accuracy of the simulation results depends on many factors
such as how closely the discrete event models appropriate
the actual system and the skill level of the programmer.
Good simulation models can significantly improve the
design, analysis and management of the production systems.
Many corporations have their own tools for analysis. For
example, General Motors Corporation created an internal
throughput-analysis tool called C-MORE, which is the
combination of decomposition-based analytical methods and
customized discrete-event-simulation solvers [16]. Although
the simulation method is good at analyzing the throughput
and detecting the bottleneck locations, it has some
disadvantages such as long development time, decreased

Abstract Bottlenecks in a production line have been shown to

be one of the main reasons that impede productivity. Correctly and
efficiently identifying bottleneck locations can improve the
utilization of finite manufacturing resources, increase the system
throughput, and minimize the total cost of production. Current
bottleneck detection schemes can be separated into two categories:
analytical and simulation-based. For the analytical method, the
system performance is assumed to be described by a statistical
distribution. Although an analytical model is good at long term
prediction, this type of model is not adequate for solving the
bottleneck detection problem in the short term. On the other hand,
the simulation-based method has disadvantages, such as long
development time and decreased flexibility for different production
scenarios, which greatly impede its wide implementation. Because
of all these problems, a data driven bottleneck detection method
has been constructed based on the real-time data from
manufacturing systems. Using this new method, bottleneck
locations can be identified in both the short term and long term.
Furthermore, the proposed data driven bottleneck detection method
has been verified using the results from both the analytical and
simulation methods.

I. INTRODUCTION

HROUGHPUT is an important parameter to evaluate

a production performance. Throughput analysis is also
critical for the design, control, and management of
production systems. Bottleneck is a machine that impedes
the system performance in the strongest manner. Generally,
the performance improvement on bottleneck machines
results in a significantly higher overall system throughput
than the performance improvement on non-bottleneck
machines. Much research effort has been made in the area of
throughput analysis and bottleneck detection. Generally,
previous research can be categorized into two groups:

L. Li is with the Department of Mechanical Engineer, University of

Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA (phone: 734-764-5391; e-mail:
lilz@umich.edu).
Q. Chang is with Manufacturing Systems Research lab, General Motors
Research and Development Center, Warren, MI 48090, USA (phone: 586986-3265, e-mail: cindy.chang@gm.com).
J. Ni is with the Department of Mechanical Engineer, University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA (phone: 734-936-2918; e-mail:
junni@umich.edu).
G. Xiao is with Manufacturing Systems Research lab, General Motors
Research and Development Center, Warren, MI 48090, USA (e-mail:
guoxian.xiao@gm.com).
S. Biller is with Manufacturing Systems Research lab, General Motors
Research and Development Center, Warren, MI 48090, USA (e-mail:
stephan.biller@gm.com).

1-4244-0563-7/07/$20.00 2007 IEEE.

76

MoB2.1

B. Definition of Turning Point

Based on definition (c), it is difficult to calculate the
sensitivity value directly. Therefore, an indirect method is
needed to identify the bottlenecks based on the information
obtained in the plant floor. Before developing the method,
we first introduce a definition of turning point. This
definition is the foundation of the proposed data driven
bottleneck detection method.
Presently, more data are becoming available in modern
factories. Fig. 1 shows the blockage and starvation times
from a real (serial) production line.

flexibility for different production scenarios, and high cost

greatly impede its wide application.
To solve the problems of current bottleneck detection
methods, a new data driven bottleneck detection method is
developed. The method utilizes production line blockage
and starvation probabilities to identify production
constraints. The rest of this paper is organized as follows:
section 2 gives the definition of a bottleneck and turning
point, and then verifies the turning point corresponds to a
bottleneck; section 3 explains the data driven bottleneck
detection procedures; section 4 discusses the conclusions
and future work of this research.
II. BOTTLENECK DETECTION FORMULATION
A. Bottleneck Detection
The notion of a bottleneck does not seem to have a
uniformed accepted interpretation [17][18]. Specifically,
the following definitions are often found in the literature:
(a) If a machine has the smallest isolation production rate
(PR), this machine is the bottleneck. The production rate is
defined as the average number of parts produced by a
machine per cycle of time.
(b) If the work-in-process (WIP) inventory in a buffer is
the largest, then the machine right after this buffer is the
bottleneck.
(c) If the sensitivity value of the system production rate to
a machines production rate is the largest, then this machine

Fig. 1. Trend of blockage and starvation times in a production line

Usually, bottleneck machines in a production line have

many distinct characteristics. For example, a bottleneck
machine will often make the upstream machines blocked and
downstream machines starved. A bottleneck machine will
also have a lower overall sum of blockage and starvation
time. Based on these characteristics, the turning point can
be defined.
DEFINITION: Machine j is the turning point in a nmachine segment with finite buffers if

is the bottleneck. It is formulated as if

,
and then machine i is the bottleneck [18]. In this paper, a
bottleneck is defined as the machine which has the
maximum ratio of overall system throughput increment to its
own standalone throughput increment during a certain
period [15]. This definition can be formulated as
If
, and then machine
k is the bottleneck in an n-machine production line. In this

where
is the blockage time for machine j;
is the
starvation time for machine j; j-1 is the nearest upstream
machine and j+1 is the nearest downstream machine.
We define the turning point to be a machine where the
trend of blockage and starvation changes from blockage
being higher than starvation to starvation being higher than
blockage. Furthermore, the sum of a turning point
machines blockage and starvation is smaller than its
neighboring machines. In this way, the turning point
machine has the highest percentage of the sum of operating
time and downtime compared to the other machines in the
segment.
This definition of turning point can be further illustrated
in Fig. 2, which plots the same actual data as in Fig. 1. In
Fig 2, within the segment from machine M8 to machine
M17 (a ten-machine segment), blockage is initially higher
than starvation (M8). Then, starvation becomes higher than
blockage (from M9 to M17). Furthermore, because the
relations can be obtained as:

is the system throughput increment caused

definition,
by machine i due to a performance change (e.g., reduction of
is the standalone
cycle time or downtime) and
throughput increment of machine i.
Each of these definitions has its advantages and
disadvantages [18]. The main advantage of definitions (a)
and (b) is that they are based on on-line data, which can be
measured during real-time system operation. However, these
two definitions are local in nature, and they may not identify
the critical bottlenecks from the total system point of view.
On the other hand, definition (c) considers both local and
global properties, because it defines how each local machine
affects the system performance. However, it is not
formulated in terms of on-line data, and quantities involved
in the definition cannot be measured directly during realtime system operation. This greatly impedes applying
definition (c) to detect bottlenecks in a real system.
77

MoB2.1

Because each machine only has four statuses (blocked,

starved, down, and operating), the equations based on time
summation for each machine can be expressed as:

M9 must be the turning point by definition. Following the

same procedure, M2, M4 and M6 are the other turning
points in this example.

By analyzing the relationship between these three

machines; we see that
is mainly caused by

is mainly caused by
. Furthermore,

, and
is mainly

and
, and
is mainly caused by
caused by
and
. Therefore, four additional equations according
to these conditions can be obtained as

Fig. 2. Case to show how turning points are determined

The on-line information of blockage and starvation

reflects production line performance during a projected time
periods. For short time periods, the turning points reflect
short-term dynamic bottlenecks. For long time periods, the
turning points reflect long-term statistic bottlenecks

where

C. Analytical Verification for Three-Machine-No-Buffer

Segment
After introducing the definitions of a bottleneck and
turning point, two kinds of verification methods analytical
verification and simulation verification are performed to
prove the conclusion that turning points correspond to
bottlenecks.
The analytical verification is on a simple three-machineno-buffer line. We give a pictorial representation of this
segment in Fig. 3.

. When both machines

and

are

, then machine
is
failed, if there is a part on machine
blocked during the failure; else if there is no part on
machine

when both machine

and machine

are

is starved. Therefore, parameter

failed, then machine
is the random value between 0 and 1 to describe this kind of
uncertainty in (4) and (5).
By solving these seven equations, the expressions for
can be calculated as

which means the working time of each machine during the

is the turning point,
segment is the same. Since machine
the additional relations can be obtained as

Fig. 3. Selected segment for analytical verification

The assumptions and simplifications in the verification

include:
(1) The first machine
is never starved, and the last
machine
is never blocked.
(2) Reasonably assume the cycle time for each machine to
be same, because the cycle time for each machine in the
actual system of different types of machine is quite close.
(3) Machine
is the turning point.
We define the parameters as follows:

. Therefore, from (1), (2) and (3), we

and
see that
and
.
The system throughput of the three-machine segment can
be obtained:
According to the definition of standalone throughput,
three more equations can be obtained as

- Blockage time for machine j, j = i-1, i

- Starvation time for machine j, j = i, i+1
- Down time for machine j, j = i-1, i, i+1
- Working time for machine j, j = i-1, i, i+1
T- Sampling time (e.g., one shift)
TC - Cycle time of machines

Now, change each machines parameter to calculate the

sensitivity value. We reduce the total downtime of each
respectively to
machine by a certain small value
calculate the throughput increment by each machine and the
standalone throughput increment of each machine. Then the

- Overall system throughput

- Standalone throughput for individual machine j, j =
i-1, i, i+1
- Intersection of sets

sensitivity
78

values

and

can

be

MoB2.1

obtained. Finally, the bottleneck location can be identified

by comparing the sensitivity values.
When
is reduced by
, according to (8) and (9)

machine-five-buffer model (6M5B), several-machine-nobuffer models, and models of real production lines from two
automotive plants. One case of a 6M5B production line is
shown to not only illustrate the simulation verification but
also highlight the main advantage of data driven method
over the traditional simulation-based bottleneck detection
method. The 6M5B production line is drawn schematically
in Fig. 4.

As a result,

Therefore,

Fig. 4. A 6M5B production line

The simulation running conditions include: buffer

capacity =10, initial buffer content = 0, part inter-arrival
time = 0.1 sec, running period = 8 hours, and machine
running parameters are listed in TABLE .

Following the same procedures, we calculate sensitivity

values when reducing downtime by
one at a time for
other two machines

and

as

TABLE I
SIMULATION PARAMETERS IN A 6M5B LINE
Cycle time

MTTR (min)

MTBF (min)

M1

10 sec

31

M2

10 sec

25

M3

10 sec

28

M4

10 sec

26

M5
M6

10 sec
10 sec

3
2

21
29

Fig. 5. A simulation result for verification on 6M5B line

Therefore,

which verifies that the turning point (machine

bottleneck.

By running the simulation, the blockage and starvation

results are shown in the histogram in Fig. 5. By applying the
data driven bottleneck detection method, we find that M2
and M5 are the two turning points in this case.
For comparison, we run the simulation for sensitivity
analysis. Under normal conditions, system throughput is
2,362 parts. Two approaches are adopted to perform
sensitivity analysis for simulation-based bottleneck
detection. The first approach is to eliminate the downtime of
each machine respectively to check which elimination
results in the highest new throughput. The bigger the new
throughput (or throughput increment) is, the higher the
importance of a potential bottleneck becomes. A second
approach, similar to the first, includes a reduction of the
total downtime of each machine by a certain small value (5
minutes in this case). This reduction of downtime is used for
each machine individually, instead of eliminating the
downtime altogether. The results for these two kinds of

) is the

D. Simulation Verification
Besides the analytical verification on a three-machine-nobuffer serial line, simulation-based verification is utilized to
verify the turning point is a bottleneck in complex
production lines
More than five hundred cases have been studied, and over
95% of cases show good agreement that the data driven
bottleneck detection method works well and finds the actual
bottleneck. The simulation models studied include twomachine-one-buffer model (2M1B), three-machine-twobuffer model (3M2B), four-machine-three-buffer model
(4M3B), five-machine-four-buffer model (5M4B), six79

MoB2.1

E. Verification Discussion
In fact, the most important task for bottleneck detection is
to identify all the independent local bottlenecks, which are
often located in independent segments and divided by the
effective buffer locations. Buffer locations in the
production line are used to receive and store the finished
parts from the upstream machines and provide parts to the
downstream machines to be processed. Buffer content level
is an important factor which strongly affects system
performance. If a buffer content is seldom zero or full and
often close to a certain level (e.g., half of the total capacity),
then the machines ahead of this buffer are independent of
the machines after this buffer because the buffer can provide
or store enough parts and the production is not affected no
matter how good or bad the performance is upstream or
downstream. This kind of buffer is defined as an effective
buffer, and segments divided by an effective buffer can be
studied independently.
On the other hand, if the content of a buffer is often zero
or full, this kind of buffer is defined as non-effective
buffer and machines ahead of this buffer are dependently
related to machines after this buffer because the blockage
and starvation times of upstream machines affect the
blockage and starvation times of downstream machines (and
vice versa). However, the effective buffer and non-effective
buffer can only be defined qualitatively not quantitatively
because there is no unified standard accepted to determine
the boundary between effective and non-effective buffers. It
is obvious that a buffer in which the content is never zero or
full can be considered an ideally effective buffer. However,
it is less straightforward to define whether a buffer is
effective or non-effective when the buffer is full or empty 10
percent of the time. Fortunately, buffer dynamic movement
(including both effective and non-effective buffers) can be
considered as a blockage/starvation change, and the global
trend of blockage/starvation automatically decouples long
production lines into many independent segments. The
turning point is defined in both a local and a global sense; in
this way, it can identify independent local bottlenecks in
each independent segment of the production line.
Under the ideal condition, for the segment between two
effective buffers, if only one turning point exists, the
segment possibly can be aggregated into a three-machineno-buffer segment.

sensitivity analysis approaches are listed in TABLE II.

TABLE II
RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A 6M5B LINE
New throughput
New throughput
when downtime
when MTTR=0
decreased by 5 minutes
M1

2,363

2,363

M2

2,403

2,371

M3

2,408

2,376

M4

2,431

2,384

M5

2,461

2,388

M6

2,378

2,378

Both approaches show M5 and M4 are the most important

bottleneck. In fact, M5 is definitely the primary bottleneck
with highest throughout increment, and M2 (not M4) is the
actual secondary important bottleneck. To verify this
conclusion, we eliminated the down time of the primary
bottleneck (M5) and performed the sensitivity analysis on
the other five machines again. The results are shown in
TABLE III.
TABLE III
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A 6M5B LINE WHEN M5 IS PERFECT
New throughput
New throughput
when downtime
when MTTR=0
decreased by 5 minutes
M1

2,480

2,480

M2

2,622

2,487

M3

2,500

2,486

M4

2,474

2,473

M6

2,461

2,461

In TABLE III, both sensitivity analysis methods show

that M2 is the primary bottleneck in the new condition,
which verifies that M2 is the actual secondary bottleneck in
the original system (not M4). In fact, in the original
condition, the higher throughput increment of M4 comes
from the effect of the primary bottleneck M5. In this way,
the primary bottleneck dominates the throughput change: on
one hand, the function and influence of M2 has been
concealed and abated by the primary bottleneck M5; on the
other hand, M4 is the dependent machine of the primary
bottleneck M5 and achieves high throughput with M5.
Therefore, M4 is the dependent bottleneck (not the
independent one). These dependencies cause actual
independent bottlenecks to be missed. Furthermore, some
unimportant, dependent bottlenecks are treated as
independent bottlenecks.
In summary, this case study verifies an important
advantage of data driven bottleneck detection method over
the simulation based bottleneck detection method: the data
driven method can identify independent local bottlenecks,
while the simulation based method sometimes reflects
dependencies.

As shown in Fig. 6, if machine

is the turning point, by

to
, blockage is
definition, for each machine from
higher than its own starvation. However, for each machine
to
, blockage is smaller than its own
from
starvation. Therefore, the machines in the small segment
are blocked while the machines after
are
before
starved. Because of these characteristics, the m-machine
segment (including buffers) can be simplified and
aggregated into a three-machine-no-buffer segment
including
80

and

. Because the analytical

MoB2.1
524-532.
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verification solution has been obtained in three-machine

segment, analytical verification on m-machine segment is
also solved. However, the conditions, under which a long
segment can be aggregated into three-virtual-machine
segment, are still unknown. It will be our further work.

Fig. 6. Long line aggregation into three-machine segment

III. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK

This research proposed a new data-driven methodology to
detect serial production line bottlenecks. It is shown that
manufacturing blockage and starvation measurements play
crucial roles in bottleneck identification. The method is
verified to be compatible with the bottleneck definition for
simple three-machine-no-buffer serial line. The analytical
verification uses the actual cumulative values instead of
traditional statistical values. For complex production line,
simulation-based verification is utilized. It is convinced that
the data driven method can provide quick bottleneck
identification. This offers a possibility for a unified
approach to bottleneck analysis.
It is noticed that the new method can apply for most cases
in our studies, however a few exceptions exist. To learn the
limitation of the method and to gain deep understandings of
production performance from on-line production
measurements such as blockage and starvation are subjects
of future work.
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81