Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
PROJECT REPORT
ON
SUBMITTED
BY
CHANKI .H. DARJI
TO
UNIVERSITY OF PUNE
PROJECT GUIDE
Prof. SONALI SARIPALLI
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify thatMr.ChankiHasmukhbhaiDarjistudent of SINHGAD
INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION & RESEARCH, Pune has
completed her work report atMotilalOswal Securities Ltd.PUNEon the topic of
Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Mutual Funds And has to be
submitted the work report in partial fulfillment of Master in Business Administration of
the UNIVERSITY OF PUNE for the academic year 2011-2013.
He has worked under our guidance and direction. The said report is based on
bonfide information.
Date:Place:-
Director
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the project titled Fundamental and Technical Analysis of
Mutual Funds.is an original piece of research work carried out by me under the
guidance and supervision of Prof. SonaliSaripalli. The information has been collected
from genuine & authentic sources. The work has been submitted in partial fulfillment of
the requirement of Master of Business Administration under University of Pune.
Signature:
Place:
Date:
Acknowledgement
I would like to express my gratitude towards my parents & member of Motilal Oswal
Securities Ltd. for their kind co-operation and encouragement which help me in
completion of this project.
I would like to express my special gratitude and thanks to industry persons for giving me
such attention and time.
Sr. No.
1
Topic
Page
No.
INTRODUCTION
Introduction of topic
Company Profile
11
Statement of problem
13
14
Research Methodology
15
Limitations
16
CONCEPTUAL METHODOLOGY
17
Literature Review
18
19
Fundamental analysis
26
Technical Analysis
29
46
FINDINGS
57
SUGGESTIONS
59
CONCLUSION
61
ANNEXEURE
63
BIBLIOGRAPHY
68
Executive Summary
This project is done at MotilalOswal Securities Ltd., Pune, as a part of MBA
program with the objective to study and analyze a company with the objective of
investing in the securities of the company so as to get maximum returns.
The Mutual Fund gives unbelievable returns if invested for long term. Investment
decisions are of critical nature and there by a major part of the population shys away
from the investment s in the mutual Funds
The project serves as a guide line to naive as well as investors to choose the right
mutual fund to strengthen the portfolio. Fundamental and Technical Analysis are used as
tools to choose the right script, thereby formulating a strong investment strategy.
While Fundamental and Technical analysis are useful tools in the hands of an Analyst,
one should understand that the mutual fund is majorly by market sentiments. Market
sentiments are nothing but human psychological behavior that decides the market prices
of a particular company. For investment Analysis of a company its EPS, P/E analysis,
Market Capitalization, promoters and institutional holdings, Management control as well
as the future growth prospects of the company are scrutinized to arrive at a script that will
maximize return at minimum risk. With the help of Fundamental Analysis the projection
regarding the companys future potential can be evaluated, thereby creating a strong
interest amongst the investors.Technical Analysis goes one step ahead to enable us to
time the market for maximum return on investment.
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
A mutual fund is a financial intermediary that pools the savings of investors for collective
investment in a diversified portfolio of securities. A fund is mutual as all of its returns,
minus its expenses, are shared by the funds investors.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 1996 defines a
mutual fund as a a fund established in the form of a trust to raise money through the sale
of units to the public or a section of the public under one or more schemes for investing
in securities, including money market instruments. According to the above definition, a
mutual fund in India can raise resources through sale of units to the public. It can be set
up in the form of a Trust under the Indian Trust Act.
A mutual fund serves as a link between the investor and the securities market by
mobilizing savings from the investors and investing them in the securities market to
generate returns. Thus, a mutual fund is akin to portfolio management services (PMS).
Although, both are conceptually same, they are different from each other. Portfolio
management services are offered to high net worth individuals; taking into account their
risk profile, their investments are managed separately. In the case of mutual funds,
savings of small investors are pooled under a scheme and the returns are distributed in the
same proportion in which the investments are made by the investors/unit-holders.
Mutual fund is a collective savings scheme. Mutual funds play an important role in
mobilizing the savings of small investors and channelizing the same for productive
ventures in the Indian economy.
Increased diversification
Daily liquidity
Government oversight
Ease of comparison
Fees
No opportunity to customize
2) If the fund sells securities that have increased in price, the fund has a capital gain.
3) If fund holdings increase in price but are not sold by the fund manager, the fund's
shares increase in price. You can then sell your mutual fund shares for a profit.
Company Profile
MotilalOswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) was founded in 1987 as a small sub-broking unit,
with just two people running the show. Focus on customer-first-attitude, ethical and
transparent business practices, respect for professionalism, research-based value investing
and implementation of cutting-edge technology has enabled us to blossom into an over
1600 member team.
Today we are a well diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial
products and services such as Wealth Management, Broking & Distribution, Commodity
Broking, Portfolio
Management
Services,
Institutional
Equities, Private
To study the major fundamental and technical factors along with some other
factors such as social and geographical with a view to facilitate a common investor with
the tools to take a wise decisions and maximize his returns on investments in mutual
funds.
To study the terms of Technical Analysis. To study the strategy that one should
use to make buying or selling decision with the help of technical Charts.
Research Methodology
Every project is stared with the objective of getting results either positive or negative and
each and every project reaches to the stage of completion through the way of some
research either with the help of primary data or secondary data. And getting of any
project and getting genuine results from is depended on the research methodology used
by the researcher.
Primary Objective:
Sub-Objectives:
1) To study the various theories of technical analysis and fundamental analysis for
various mutual funds that chosen.
3) To understand and analyze the factors affecting the movement of mutual fund prices in
the Indian Market.
Technical analysis are done with the help of computerized utilities & integrated
software, it is a bit difficult for a new investor to understand the logic behind the
movements of charts without a thorough study.
Technical analysis is not a fool proof study and it considers only the price
movements and the volumes.
CONCEPTUAL
METHODOLOGY
Literature Review
A Mutual Fund is a trust that pools the savings of a number of investors who share a
common financial goal. The money thus collected is then invested in capital market
instruments such as shares, debentures and other securities. The income earned through
these investments and the capital appreciation realized is shared by its unit holders in
proportion to the number of units owned by them. Thus a Mutual Fund is the most
suitable investment for the common man as it offers an opportunity to invest in a
diversified, professionally managed basket of securities at a relatively low cost.
The term mutual fund is less widely used outside of the United States. For collective
investment schemes outside of the United States, see articles on specific types of funds
including open-ended investment companies, sicavs, unitized insurance funds, unit trusts
and Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities.
Literature on mutual fund performance evaluation is enormous. A few research studies
that have influenced the preparation of this paper substantially are discussed in this
section. Sharpe, William F. (1966) suggested a measure for the evaluation of
portfolio performance. Drawing on results obtained in the field of portfolio
analysis, economist Jack L. Trey nor has suggested a new predictor of mutual fund
performance, one that differs from virtually all those used previously by
incorporating the volatility of a fund's return in a simple yet meaningful
manner.
By Structure
o
Interval Schemes
By Investment Objective
o
Growth Schemes
Income Schemes
Balanced Schemes
Equity Funds
This type of mutual fund makes investments in the stocks of companies listed on major
share markets. Equity Mutual Funds help in shielding unseasoned investors from the risk
they would have incurred if they had directly invested in the stock market. The fund
manager makes the investment decisions for the investor.
In Equity mutual funds, the fund portfolio may be mixed, having stocks from various
sectors or they may concentrate on a particular sectors. They may also tilt towards large
cap or mid cap stocks. Fund information may list the stocks invested by the fund and may
also give their weight age. For example the Sundaram Paribas Equity - CAPEX
Opportunities Fund (a mutual fund operating in India) has a large-cap stock tilted in its
fund portfolio (as on Oct 2007).
2)
Debt funds
Debt mutual funds include bonds issued by the Government and other institutions in their
fund portfolio. The portfolio of the mutual fund may include investments in a mix of
Government securities, corporate bonds, and Public Sector Unit (PSU) bonds as also
securitized debt.
Bonds are more secure than shares as they are usually fixed-interest, though not always.
Investments in government bond are also said to be a refuge of stability. This is ideal for
those investors looking for low risk, high stability and regular income.
The mutual fund portfolio can be studied to see the percentage of investments in various
types of bonds. For example, the Templeton Global Bond Fund invests in bonds of many
countries such as Korea Treasury Bonds, Government of Sweden Bonds etc.
3)
The money market consists of short-term debt instruments, mostly Treasury bills. This is
a safe place to park your money. You won't get great returns, but you won't have to worry
about losing your principal. A typical return is twice the amount you would earn in a
regular checking/savings account and a little less than the average certificate of
deposit (CD).
4)
Income Funds
Income funds are named appropriately: their purpose is to provide current income on a
steady basis. When referring to mutual funds, the terms "fixed-income," "bond," and
"income" are synonymous. These terms denote funds that invest primarily in government
and corporate debt. While fund holdings may appreciate in value, the primary objective
of these funds is to provide a steady cash flow to investors. As such, the audience for
these funds consists of conservative investors and retirees.
Fundamental Analysis
Meaning:-Fundamental analysis attempts to find the actual value of a stocki.e., its ability
to generate future cash flows to make investment decisions and focuses on a company's
financial results. Specifically, fundamental analysis emphasizes forecasts of
company's earnings and revenue growth rates, valuation ratios like price to earnings, and
financial ratios like profit margins.
Fundamental analysis also looks to conditions in the industry sector(s) in which
the company operates and the broader economic outlook.
Tools of fundamental analysis
E.g. equity capital of an auto company should be compared with the equity capital
of auto companies only and not with equity capital of IT Companies. Invest in the
company having large equity capital compared to other companies of the same
sector.
It is a self comparative tool. EPS of one company should not be compared with EPS of
another company even if they are from same sector.
Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization = Current Market Price 8 * No. of shares
Earnings
The amount of profit that a company produces during a specific period,which is usually
defined as a quarter or a year. Earnings typically refer to after-tax net income. Ultimately,
a business's earnings are the main determinant of its share price, because earnings and
the circumstances relating to them can indicate whether the business will be profitable
and successful in the long run.
1. Year to year comparison study: Net profits of the current financial year are to
be compared with the net profits of previous financial year. It gives a bigger
picture of the companys performance.
Bonus
A company gives bonus in the form of shares only. It is given in some ratio of what share
holders are holding. It is in the ratio of free holdings 1:2 means the company will give 1
bonus share for every 2 holdings.
Dividend
Dividend is the small portion of the net profits, what company decides to distribute to its
shareholders. It is always calculated on FV in terms of percentage. It shows goodwill of
the company towards it shareholders.
Technical Analysis
In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that
was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst
would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the
intrinsic value of the products in the store, the technical analyst's decision would be based
on the patterns or activity of people going into each store.
- Opening Price
This is price of the first trade for the period. When analyzing daily data, the open
price is especially important as it is the consensus price after all interested parties were
able to sleep on it
- High
This is a highest price that security traded during the period. It is the point at
which there were more buyers.
- Low
This is a lowest price that security traded during the period. It is the point at
which there were mare sellers.
- Close
This is a last price that the security traded during the period. Due to its
availability, the close is most often used price for analysis. The relationship between the
first price (open) & the last (close) is considered significant by most technicians. The
relationship is emphases in candlestick charts.
- Volume
Volume means number of transaction takes place at given price for given period
of time.
Bullish Pattern
In bullish pattern, the overall stock price goes on increasing and shows an upward trend.
The strategy of an investor should be to buy on dips.
Bearish Pattern
Bearish Pattern is exactly opposite of bullish pattern. Here the overall stock price goes on
decreasing. The strategy of an investor should be to sell on rise.
Types of Chart
Bar Chart
Line Chart
A style of chart that is created by connecting a series of data points together with
a line. This is the most basic type of chart used in finance and it is generally created by
connecting a series of past prices together with a line.
As you can see from the chart above, a line chart can give the reader a fairly good idea of
where the price of an asset has traveled over a given time frame. Since the closing prices
are often seen as the most important ones to keep track of, it is not difficult to see why
line charts have become so popular. Other popular styles of charts include bar charts,
candlestick charts and point and figure charts.
Candlestick Chart
A price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security each day over a
specified period of time. A candlestick chart is a style of bar-chart used primarily to
describe price movements of a security, derivative, or currency over time.
It is a combination of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of
price movement over a given time interval. It is most often used in technical analysis of
equity and currency price patterns. They appear superficially similar to error bars, but are
unrelated.
Analysis
Composition:
Equity
65.96 %
Debt
24.27 %
Cash
9.77 %
Trailing returns:
3 Months
1 year
3 years
5 years
Since launch
14.46
54.98
48.43
29.79
18.85
Analysis
We cant expect miracles in Prudential ICICI Balanced. Though it can take us to our goal
in a stable fashion. The last five calendar years are testimony to this fact that it has
consistently been delivering an above average performance. Last year also the fund kept
its record intact the return was up 38.70 percent against the category average of 32.56
percent. So on an average we can rate this fund in low risk segment which can perform in
a consistent manner.
Scheme objective: The scheme aims to provide growth of capital and regular dividend
from a portfolio of equity, debt and money market instruments and focusing on the
wealth creating companies across all sectors and market cap ranges.
Composition:
Equity
92.59 %
Debt
0.01 %
Cash
7.39 %
Trailing returns:
3 Months
1 year
3 years
5 years
Since launch
23.03
79.28
71.4
42.86
23.47
Analysis
This fund was launched around the peak of the IPO boom, Prima Plus started as a
stockcollector. By March 1996, the funds portfolio was totally out of focus with nearly
200 stocksin its kitty, including many small cap and illiquid issues. Despite relentless
cleaning if theportfolio, the fund took nearly four years to consolidate. Since 1998 the
fund has beenfocusing on large and mid caps and to a more manageable number of issues
45 60 in thelast two years. It grew at a fast pace to make up for initial losses with big bets
in technologysome of which included scripts such as Satyam.
Satyam. Hughes. Zee &Mastek.
&
Losing nearly 32percent has made in a conservative with high concentration on large
caps. This year the fundfrom the word go has been almost fully invested. Since the start
of the year the fund is up11.91 percent as on February 28, 2006. Today it favors
diversified financial and technologysector stocks.
Scheme objective: The fund seeks capital appreciation by investing in larger stocks
withgood fundamentals and good long term prospects.
Composition:
Equity
95.76%
Debt
0.00 %
Cash
4.24 %
Trailing returns:
3 Months
1 year
3 years
5 years
Since launch
23.64
79.64
80.47
62.11
29.93
Analysis
Reliance vision is a good choice for those who want high returns but can deal with
somedownside in bear markets. The fund was an average performer in the early part of its
nineyear existence, but it has staged an impressive turnaround in the past few years.
years The
fund hasnever shielded away from shuffling its portfolio between large caps and mid caps
to boostperformance. This strategy has worked especially well in the last two years. In
2002 it toppedthe category with a mind boggling 72 percent return against the category
average of justt 20percent. Year 2003 also proved to be an excellent year thanks to a
higher exposure in banksand
banks
healthcare stocks. Year 2004 and 2005 were the ups and
downs for the fund respectively.
Scheme objective: The scheme seeks to provide long term capital appreciation
bypredominantly investing in high growth companies.
Composition:
Equity
97.30 %
Debt
0.00 %
Cash
2.70 %
Trailing returns:
3 Months
1 year
3 years
5 years
Since launch
18.82
90.24
78.76
50.55
25.3
Analysis
This fund has an amazing feat to its credit. This is the only diversified equity fund that
hasoutperformed the category average return every time in the last seven calendar years.
Top quartile performance in the four of the last five years with an average volatility
makes thisfund suitable as a core holding. HDFC equity is one of the most versatile funds
available tothe Indian investors. In fact its ability to change with times is responsible
resp
for a
great showeven in tough times. Its top three sectors technology automobile and financial
servicesaccount for nearly 54 percent of the portfolio and technology alone accounts for
21 percentout of it.
Composition:
Equity
62.50 %
Debt
33.65 %
Cash
3.86 %
Trailing returns:
3 Months
1 year
3 years
5 years
Since launch
23.29
67.9
53.76
33.3
24.01
Analysis
This fund has a reasonable long term performance record. In the last two calendar years it
haslanded itself in the top quartile returns. In 2005 the fund gained 43.19 percent
tocomprehensively beat 32.56 percent return of an average peer. In 2004 too it had
returnednearly 25 percent to win a place among the top three funds in the category. The
fund has alsobenefited by not being very rigid with its asset allocation in the past for e.g.
when the bullsreturned to the equity markets in the early 2002 the fund reduced its bond
exposure from anaverage
age 41 percent in 2001 to around 33 percent in 2002. The portfolio
has once again gonefor a complete overhaul. The exposure to equities has gone up to 68
percent now. A welldiversified portfolio is also a plus here. The fund always keeps 20 to
30 stocks andd limitsexposure in individual stocks to around 6 percent at most. This funds
versatility is hard tobeat. Long term investors would be rewarded here.
30%
35%
Savings Account
Fixed Deposit
Insurance
15%
20%
Mutual Funds
Interpretation:
35% of people go with Savings account & 30% of the people are interested in Mutual
Funds.
Q2. While investing your money, which factor you prefer most?
A. Liquidity
B. Low Risk
C. High Return
D. Company Reputation
10%
10%
Liquidity
30%
Low Risk
50%
High Return
Company Reputation
Interpretation:
50% of the people are interested in such a type of investments which are of low risk and
30% wants high returns on their investment.
30%
Yes
70%
No
Interpretation:
More than 50% of the people want their money to be invested in the mutual funds as it
has low risk and more diversified.
B. Private
45%
55%
Public
Private
Interpretation:
Investment in Public and Private Funds is almost in the same percentage. Then too there
is more number of investors in private funds.
20%
Diversification
15%
25%
Reduction in risk and
transaction cost
30%
Interpretation:
According to 30% of respondents Reduction in Risk & Transaction cost is the best
feature of mutual fund that is most assured.
10%
30%
10%
SBIMF
UTI
15%
HDFC
JM Mutual Fund
10%
25%
Reliance
Others
Interpretation:
Maximum percentages of investors are in UTI mutual fund followed with SBI Mutual
Fund.
Q7. When you invest in mutual funds which mode of investment will you prefer?
A. One time investment
45%
One time investment
55%
Systematic Investment Plan
(SIP)
Interpretation:
Maximum number of investors wants to go with SIP i.e. Systematic Investment Plan
rather than one time investment.
10%
10%
10%
SBIMF
UTI
15%
40%
Reliance
HDFC
15%
Kotak
ICICI
Interpretation:
Maximum percentages of investors are in UTI mutual fund as it is the oldest mutual fund
and also the risk involved is less.
5%
10%
10%
General
15%
10%
15%
25%
10%
Power Sector
Debt Fund
Banking Fund
Real Estate Fund
Interpretation:
Most of the people invest in gold as it gives large returns from the investments and also
the risk of investment is very low.
Q10. How would you like to receive the returns every year?
A. Dividend Payout
B. Dividend re-investment
re
C. Growth in NAV
30%
45%
Dividend Payout
Dividend re-investment
25%
Growth in NAV
Interpretation:
45% of the people like to receive their returns in the form of Dividend as it is fix and less
risky
ky rather than on NAV and Re-investing.
Re
FINDINGS
Findings
It was found that majority of the investors are interested in going for mutual
funds. Also there are some people who are in for savings account rather than
investing in mutual funds.
It was observed that large part of the people wants to go with low risk investment
with high returns.
It was also found that majority of the investors opt for private funds as they are
more profitable and less risky.
It was observed that 20% of customers are preferred to invest in Tax saver funds.
It was found that the majority of the investors invest in Systematic Investment
Plan (SIP)
SUGGESTIONS
Suggestions
Breakdown of neckline by head and shoulder pattern, buyers should sell the
holding stock and minimize loss.
For a trader it is vital to be in touch with the current happenings, news regarding
the merger, takeovers, regulations, de-regulations, quarterly results, etc.
Always use earned saved tension free money with bigger time frame
When a reasonable profit has already been made, one cannot overcome the greed
and sell the stock for taking the profit
Inactivity
Portfolio should not be empty at any point of time means; there should always be
some cash and some stock in the portfolio at any point of time
Times to tradealways buy good stocks in bad times and sell stocks in good times
taking help of macros and technical.
CONCLUSION
Conclusion
With the help of this project I conclude that Technical and Fundamental Analysis is
playing very important role in stock market, when making decision of buying and selling.
By investing in right company and at the right time can even get you returns of more than
60% in one year. Always invest with a long term objective. Do not enter the market with
the objective of speculation. Ste your goals and adopt a strategy and do not change it
every day. Always have a well diversified portfolio so as to reduce the risk of losses.
To get good returns from investments follow the pattern of accumulation & distribution
in pyramid fashion. This requires patience and discipline, but it increases returns.
Fundamental analysis considers the long term performance of companies & this will help
to invest their money for long terms as well as can get the good returns.
Technical Analysis comprises of short term analysis of the companies. Technical analysis
really studies supply and demand in the market in an attempt to determine what direction
or trend will continue in future.
ANNEXEURE
Questionnaire
Q2. While investing your money, which factor you prefer most?
A. Liquidity
B. Low Risk
C. High Return
D. Company Reputation
B. Private
Q10. How would you like to receive the returns every year?
A. Dividend Payout
B. Dividend re-investment
C. Growth in NAV
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bibliography
Books
Financial Management - Khan & Jain
Research Methodology C.R Kothari
Mc Grow Hill
Web Sites
www.motilaloswal.com
www.amfindia.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.mutualfundsindia.com