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SECTIONAL REPORT
3/14/2016
RISK Margin Debt Channel is Pretty Clear High Odds of Troubles Ahead........................................................................................... 154
RISK Goldman Joins the Chorus Warning on Bond Market Liquidity ...................................................................................................... 155
RISK So Goes Retail So Goes the US Economy .................................................................................................................................. 155
RISK Consumer Discretionary Sending Signals....................................................................................................................................... 156
RISK Net EBITDA 2x Highest since 2006 % of companies with net cash Lowest since 2006 ................................................................ 158
RISK US Corporate Net Debt Has Exploded & Now Massively Exceeds EBITDA .................................................................................. 158
RISK CBOE Skew Index ........................................................................................................................................................................... 159
RISK Gap Between Uncertainties Priced in the Debt & Equity Markets .................................................................................................. 159
RISK Beware of EPS manipulation........................................................................................................................................................... 160
RISK Total NYSE Short Interest & Monthly Change ................................................................................................................................ 161
RISK Contrasting Post October Market Drawdowns 1973s Slow Pain versus 1987 Crash............................................................... 161
RISK Historical Post-Crash Price Actions 1950 to 2015 ....................................................................................................................... 162
RISK Historical Post-Crash Price Pattern Has Taken an Average of 27 days to Double Bottom ........................................................... 162
RISK Credit Fleeing IG,HY & EM ............................................................................................................................................................. 163
RISK Credit Fleeing IG,HY & EM ............................................................................................................................................................. 163
RISK Margin Debt in NYSE Accounts versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................... 164
RISK Credit Risk Increasing ..................................................................................................................................................................... 165
RISK TED Spread Increasing ................................................................................................................................................................... 165
RISK VIX Pricing in Credit Problems ........................................................................................................................................................ 166
RISK Credit Always Leads Markets Its the Life Blood! ...................................................................................................................... 166
RISK The Pattern is Clear QE the Market Driver .................................................................................................................................. 167
RISK Internal deterioration in the market is more consistent with the development of more major bull market peaks ........................ 168
RISK A huge gap has opened up between reality and perceptions ......................................................................................................... 169
RISK Economic Surprise Index lower highs, lower lows and a reluctant bounce ................................................................................. 170
RISK Weekly Equity Outflows ................................................................................................................................................................... 170
RISK Weekly EM Fund Outflows .............................................................................................................................................................. 171
RISK Net Outflows as a % of AUM by Year ............................................................................................................................................. 172
RISK HG Spread Per Point of Equity Volume .......................................................................................................................................... 173
RISK Widening Gap between Debt & Equity ............................................................................................................................................ 173
RISK HY Bond ETF (HYG) versus S&P 500 ............................................................................................................................................ 173
RISK HY Credit versus 2007-2008 Credit Always Leads Equity ........................................................................................................ 174
RISK Leutholds High/Low Logic Index Sending a Clear Signal .............................................................................................................. 175
TECHNO-FUNDAMENTALS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 176
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 176
NEW-CHARTS Cumulative Flows by BoAML Client - January 2008-Present ......................................................................................... 176
NEW-CHARTS 2016 YTD Flows by BoAML Client Type......................................................................................................................... 176
NEW-CHARTS Upside Break of 2010 => 2085, Downside Break => 1963-1931 and 1902-1891 ......................................................... 177
NEW-CHARTS 4 Week MA of Total Net Buys by BoAML Client - January 2008-Present ..................................................................... 178
NEW-CHARTS BoAML Corporate Clients 4 Wk Average Buybacks Y-o-Y % Change .......................................................................... 179
NEW-CHARTS S&P 500 versus Forward EPS ........................................................................................................................................ 180
NEW-CHARTS Clear Signs Of A Market Trying To Roll-Over Against Corporate Buybacks Mysterious Buying ................................... 180
NEW-CHARTS Classic Ending Diagonal In Gold .................................................................................................................................... 182
NEW-CHARTS Value Line Geometric Composite Short Term A 38.2% Retracement ..................................................................... 182
NEW-CHARTS Value Line Geometric Composite Long Term A 38.2% Retracement with 23.6% Bounce ...................................... 183
CHARTS MSCI World Index 7.5 Year Cycle ......................................................................................................................................... 184
CHARTS World Equity Markets Have Now Lost Over $16.8 Trillion ....................................................................................................... 184
CHARTS Global Bear Markets ................................................................................................................................................................. 185
CHARTS Possible Head & Shoulders in Play with a Target of 1600 ....................................................................................................... 186
CHARTS Possible Small Degree Head & Shoulders in Play with a Target of 1725 ................................................................................ 186
CHARTS Possible Corrective A-B-C Near Completion .......................................................................................................................... 187
CHARTS Cumulative Flows By Client Type January 2008-Present ..................................................................................................... 187
CHARTS Total World Index Fund versus Long Term Fund ..................................................................................................................... 188
CHARTS Global DOW Drops To Next Support Level .............................................................................................................................. 188
CHARTS VIM remains negative across the board since mid-Nov. .......................................................................................................... 189
CHARTS A falling VIGOR shows net distribution ..................................................................................................................................... 190
CHARTS The RRG reflects a defensive or risk off market....................................................................................................................... 191
CHARTS The average stock in the developed world is off 23% from its 1-year high .............................................................................. 192
CHARTS The average stock in the developed world is down 8% over the past year ............................................................................. 192
CHARTS 52% of all developed world stocks are in a bear market over the past 200-days .................................................................... 193
CHARTS The average energy company is down an astounding 40% of its 1-year high. ........................................................................ 193
CHARTS The average stock in DM Americas is down 14%in the last year ............................................................................................ 194
CHARTS International and Emerging Market Divergence ....................................................................................................................... 194
CHARTS US versus World Stocks ........................................................................................................................................................... 195
CHARTS S&P 500 With and Without FOMC Meeting Dates ................................................................................................................... 196
CHARTS The Median Stock In The World Is Flat YTD ............................................................................................................................ 197
CHARTS 70% of EM Stocks are Still Down More Than 20% from 200-Day Highs ................................................................................. 197
CHARTS Year End Overhead Resistance to Santa Claus Rally ............................................................................................................. 198
CHARTS Professionals Are Leaving the Party Early ............................................................................................................................... 198
CHARTS NYSE Advance-Decline Line versus S&P ................................................................................................................................ 199
CHARTS A month-long bearish divergence for the US 15 most active advance-decline line ................................................................. 200
CHARTS A-D line preceded or coincided with big breakdowns for the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2007 ....................................................... 200
CHARTS A major bearish divergence for global A-D line in US Dollars .................................................................................................. 201
CHARTS Be Alert to Oversold Pull Back Before Seasonal YE Strength ................................................................................................. 202
CHARTS Leading Indicators Support View The Current Weakness May Turn into a Buying Opportunity ............................................. 203
CHARTS Problem in US Retail Developing ............................................................................................................................................. 204
CHARTS Gold Reacted to Chinese Devaluation ..................................................................................................................................... 205
CHARTS Investor Allocation Trends for Stocks, Bonds and Cash .............................................................................................................. 413
CHARTS Uptick in Feds Financial Stress Index Composite ....................................................................................................................... 414
CHARTS Fear Barometer Diverges with VIX, CDS IG Index ...................................................................................................................... 415
CHARTS Extreme Complacency Seen Near End of Cycles ........................................................................................................................ 415
CHARTS Complacency Seen In PE/VIX ....................................................................................................................................................... 416
CHARTS Post Crisis Sentiment Profile Shows a Clear Ending Pattern ...................................................................................................... 416
CHARTS Smart Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................................... 417
CHARTS Fed Assets versus Bullish Sentiment ........................................................................................................................................... 417
CHARTS Macro Support Has Technically Broken Down ............................................................................................................................. 418
CHARTS US Surprise Index Setting Up for Downturn ................................................................................................................................. 418
CHARTS The Public No Longer Trusts the Market Feel it is Manipulated and Ineffectively Regulated ............................................... 419
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 420
NEW-SENTIMENT: NFIB Slams Fed, Obama As Small Business Optimism Crashes To 2 Year Lows ....................................................... 420
RISK: Markets Have Left the "Complacency" Phase, Have Entered Full Blown "Mania" .............................................................................. 580
RISK: VIX Sends Message of Complacency ................................................................................................................................................... 581
RISK: CS Warns Volume & DeMark Raise "Topping Threat" In Stocks ......................................................................................................... 582
RISK: No One Will Ring the Bell at the Top .................................................................................................................................................... 586
Cassandra's - New Additions to the List ................................................................................................................................................................ 593
CASSANDRA: "Severe Correction Or Cyclical Bear" Ahead: Leuthold Major Trend Index Turns Negative ................................................. 594
CASSANDRA: CANARIES - Warnings Everywhere! ...................................................................................................................................... 595
CASSANDRA: Stephen Schork: The Commodity Crash Is "A Canary In The Coal Mine For The Global Economy" ................................... 597
CASSANDRA: Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse ..................................................... 599
CASSANDRA: "Another Crisis Is Coming": Jamie Dimon Warns Of the Next Market Crash ........................................................................ 606
CASSANDRA: Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History .................................................................................... 607
CASSANDRA: Wynn Calls "Big" Recovery "Complete Dream" As Gaming Revenues Collapse .................................................................. 609
CASSANDRA: Stan Druckenmiller's "Horrific Sense" Of Deja Vu: "This Will End Very Badly" ..................................................................... 611
CASSANDRA: Hedge Fund Legend Julian Robertson Warns Of A "Complete Explosion" Unless Fed Contains "Boiling, Bubble" ............ 616
CASSANDRA: Kyle Bass Warns "The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner... Equities Are My Biggest Liquidity Worry" ........................................ 617
CASSANDRA: Paul Tudor Jones Warns "Disastrous Market Mania" Will End In "Revolution, Taxes, or War" ............................................ 618
CASSANDRA: John Hussman - A Who's Who Of Awful Times To Invest ..................................................................................................... 620
CASSANDRA: Carl Icahn - One Day You'll See A Break Like A Few Weeks Ago But The Market Won't Come Back ................................ 623
CASSANDRA: Sam Zell Warns Of Stock Market Correction On CNBC ........................................................................................................ 624
CASSANDRA: Billionaire Carl Icahn warns on US stock prices ..................................................................................................................... 624
CASSANDRA: Soros Bets $2 Billion on Stock Market Collapse .................................................................................................................... 625
CASSANDRA: Dont Ignore Janet Yellens Stock Market Warnings 07-21-14 Fiscal Times ......................................................................... 626
CASSANDRA: Doug Kass: We're Heading for a Bear Market So Plan Accordingly ...................................................................................... 629
CASSANDRA: Comstock Funds Weighs In .................................................................................................................................................... 631
CASSANDRA: Michael Lombardi Weighs In ................................................................................................................................................... 633
CASSANDRA: Ron Paul Portfolio, 'Craziest' we've ever seen? ..................................................................................................................... 635
CASSANDRA: John Mauldin Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................. 636
CASSANDRA: Hayman Capital Dramatically Reduces Risk .......................................................................................................................... 644
CASSANDRA: Byron Wien Warns "Oblivious Markets" Of 20% Correction ................................................................................................... 645
CASSANDRA: Harry Dent Warns Stocks to Sink More than 60% by End of 2014 ........................................................................................ 645
CASSANDRA: Stanley Druckenmiller: "When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly".................................................................. 646
CASSANDRA: Mohamed El-Erian: "Prices Are Artificially High - Its Time to Take Profits" .......................................................................... 647
CASSANDRA: Felix Zulauf: World Headed Toward 1987 Style Market Collapse .......................................................................................... 648
CASSANDRA: Doug Kass: 'I'm Getting The Summer Of 1987 Feeling' In The Market Right Now ............................................................... 648
CORRELATION & COMPLACENCY A PROBLEM .............................................................................................................................................. 650
EVENT RISK A PROBLEM .................................................................................................................................................................................... 653
Q2 EARNINGS & THE R WORD .............................................................................................................................................................. 653
POLITICAL-ECONOMIC TENSIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 653
CENTRAL BANK POLICY MISCUES.......................................................................................................................................................... 653
ASIAN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN SPILLAGE ............................................................................................................................................ 653
PETRO$ CRISIS BREWING IN BRIICS...................................................................................................................................................... 653
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BUYBACKS Equity Market Performance v S&P 500 Uses of Cash ........................................................................................................ 845
BUYBACKS Default Rate v Net Equity Buybacks .................................................................................................................................... 845
BUYBACKS S&P 500 Buyback Index 200 DMA ................................................................................................................................... 846
BUYBACKS S&P 500 v Buyback Index Performance.............................................................................................................................. 846
BUYBACKS S&P 500 Annualized Share Buybacks, Dividends and Earnings ........................................................................................ 847
BUYBACKS The real reason for the slowdown has to do with the spread on investment grade debt .................................................... 847
BUYBACKS Falling Investment Grade Spreads Hurting Buybacks ......................................................................................................... 848
BUYBACKS Quarterly Share Repurchases & No. of Companies Repurchasing Shares Slows ............................................................. 848
BUYBACKS Dollar-Value Buybacks to Free Cash Flow Trailing Twelve Month Basis ........................................................................ 849
BUYBACKS Nearly 25% of Annual Buybacks Occur in November & December .................................................................................... 849
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 851
NEW-BUYBACKS Buybacks Soar ........................................................................................................................................................... 851
NEW-NEW-BUYBACKS Buybacks Must Continue: AAPL, IBM Unveil Major Debt Issuance to Fund Shareholder-Friendliness .......... 852
NEW-BUYBACKS This Is the Biggest EBITDA Drop Outside Of A Recession Since 2000 ..................................................................... 853
NEW-BUYBACKS Stock Buybacks In Jeopardy: Investment Grade Bond Funds See Biggest Outflow In 17 Weeks ............................ 855
BUYBACKS MacroStrategy Explains Why Most Stocks Have Already "Crossed The Rubicon" ............................................................ 858
NEW-BUYBACKS The Cannibalized Corporation- Corporate America is undermining itself. ................................................................. 863
NEW-BUYBACKS The Fly In The Buyback Ointment- Corporate Leverage Is At Record Levels .......................................................... 870
NEW-BUYBACKS Why Stocks Are Sliding: For The First Time Since 2009 Spending On Buybacks Surpasses Free Cash Flow ....... 875
NEW-BUYBACKS When Buybacks Fail... ................................................................................................................................................ 879
NEW-BUYBACKS "Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies ............ 880
BUYBACKS The Fly In The Buyback Ointment- Corporate Leverage Is At Record Levels .................................................................... 883
BUYBACKS Why The Stock Buyback Party Is Ending ............................................................................................................................ 887
BUYBACKS Goldman Finds Buybacks No Longer Work To Boost Stock Prices: Two Reasons Why ................................................... 889
BUYBACKS Why Stocks Are Sliding: For The First Time Since 2009 Spending On Buybacks Surpasses Free Cash Flow ................ 892
BUYBACKS When Buybacks Fail... ......................................................................................................................................................... 896
BUYBACKS "Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies ...................... 897
BUYBACKS 94% of total S&P in 2015 will go back to shareholders, as dividends and buybacks ......................................................... 900
BUYBACKS CEO Pay Boosted from Giving Shareholders Cash ............................................................................................................ 901
BUYBACKS Investor-CEO Feedback Loop ............................................................................................................................................. 902
BUYBACKS Buybacks Account for Substantial Share of Corporate Profits ............................................................................................ 903
BUYBACKS Quarterly History of Buyback Announcments ...................................................................................................................... 903
BUYBACKS Buybacks as a Percentage of Total Cash Use at the Highest Level Since 2007................................................................ 904
BUYBACKS Weekly Buybacks and Rolling 3 Month Sum ....................................................................................................................... 904
BUYBACKS What Sustained Buybacks Look Like To Rating Agencies IBM Example ........................................................................ 905
BUYBACKS Dollar Volume of Share Buybacks and Dividends at Record Levels ................................................................................... 905
BUYBACKS Buybacks & Dividends Hurdle $900B in 2014 ..................................................................................................................... 905
BUYBACKS The Growth of Stock Buybacks............................................................................................................................................ 906
BUYBACKS Buybacks & Dividends as a Percentage of Operating Earnings ......................................................................................... 907
BUYBACKS Executive Compensation Structure...................................................................................................................................... 907
BUYBACKS During 2014 virtually 100% of S&P 500s reported profits of $1T were disgorged as shareholder distributions ................ 908
BUYBACKS 2015 US Equity Flows Forecast ........................................................................................................................................... 908
BUYBACKS Announced Gross Share Buybacks ..................................................................................................................................... 909
BUYBACKS Global IPO /Secondary Offerings versus Announced Gross Share Buybacks ................................................................... 909
BUYBACKS Actual Net Share Buybacks ................................................................................................................................................. 910
BUYBACKS US IPOs-Actual Buybacks and LBO .................................................................................................................................... 910
BUYBACKS Cash to Stockholders Exceeds 90% of Profits .................................................................................................................... 911
BUYBACKS Stock Repurchases Surge 30% in Q3 ................................................................................................................................. 911
BUYBACKS Stock Repurchases 2nd Highest on Record at $145B.......................................................................................................... 911
BUYBACKS 2914 YTD Stock Repurchases By Corporation 20 Corporations Over $4B ..................................................................... 912
BUYBACKS Operating EPS With / Without Buybacks ............................................................................................................................. 912
BUYBACKS Sales & Revenue Doesnt Support Reported EPS Due to Buyback Distortion ................................................................... 913
BUYBACKS S&P 500 Buyback Index versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................... 914
BUYBACKS The New S&P 500 Buyback Index TR ................................................................................................................................. 914
BUYBACKS The New S&P 500 Buyback Index Since Start of QE ......................................................................................................... 915
BUYBACKS IBM Total Debt to Equity (to Fund Buybacks) ..................................................................................................................... 915
BUYBACKS IBM Debt Issuance v Buybacks ........................................................................................................................................... 916
BUYBACKS Global FDI into Finance versus Productive Assets ............................................................................................................. 917
BUYBACKS Total Corporate Debt 35% Higher than 2008 Peak Used for Buybacks .......................................................................... 917
BUYBACKS Buyback Bonanza ................................................................................................................................................................ 918
BUYBACKS Buybacks Have Made a 1% Earnings Growth Distortion to Median S&P 500 Company ................................................... 918
BUYBACKS Top 10 Buyback Companies ................................................................................................................................................ 919
BUYBACKS Intel Buybacks ...................................................................................................................................................................... 919
BUYBACKS Shares Outstanding Back at 2000 Level ............................................................................................................................. 920
BUYBACKS Largest Volumes of Buybacks by US Listed Corporation in Last Year ............................................................................... 920
BUYBACKS Corporations Are No Longer Investing But Rather Financial Engineering Stock Prices ..................................................... 921
BUYBACKS Q2 Drop-Off Closer to Normal .......................................................................................................................................... 922
BUYBACKS Borrowing to Buy back Shares ............................................................................................................................................. 922
BUYBACKS Cyclical Nature of Buybacks Evident ................................................................................................................................... 922
BUYBACKS Major Q2 Repurchases ........................................................................................................................................................ 923
BUYBACKS Major Q1 Repurchases ........................................................................................................................................................ 923
BUYBACKS Quarterly Repurchase & Buyback Yield ............................................................................................................................... 924
BUYBACKS US Corporate Cash versus Buybacks .................................................................................................................................. 925
BUYBACKS Net Debt/EBITDA of American Non-Financial Corporations ............................................................................................... 925
BUYBACKS Stock Buybacks To Grind To A Halt Following Massive Credit Fund Outflows, "Bond Carnage" ....................................... 926
BUYBACKS"The End Of The Road" - Debt-Funded Buyback Boosts Are Finite ..................................................................................... 928
BUYBACKS Why There Is No Growth: The Entire S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Is Going Back To Shareholders ...................................... 931
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BUYBACKS Do Share Buybacks Create Value? (Spoiler Alert: No) ........................................................................................................ 932
BUYBACKS Surprise! CEOs Are Getting Rich by Buying Back Stock ..................................................................................................... 934
BUYBACKSThe End of Buybacks? Goldman Warns Political Pressure On Share Repurchases Is Rising ............................................ 939
BUYBACKSCorporate Buybacks: Connecting the Dots to the F-Word .................................................................................................... 941
BUYBACKS Capex Recovery Is Worst In History, BoAML Says .............................................................................................................. 946
BUYBACKS Stock Buybacks Move to the "Terminal" Next Stage ............................................................................................................ 949
BUYBACKSOne Heckuva Bull Market ...................................................................................................................................................... 951
BUYBACKS - The US Equity Bubble Depends On Corporate Buybacks; Here's the Proof ....................................................................... 952
BUYBACKS - Why Markets Are Manic - The Fed Is Addicted To the "Easy Button" ................................................................................. 956
BUYBACKS - When $140 Billion In Buybacks Isn't Enough... .................................................................................................................... 958
BUYBACKS - "Obsessive" Buybacks Could Be Big Mistake, "Serious" People Tell Unserious People .................................................... 958
BUYBACKS - Q3 Buybacks Surging, These Are The Top 20 Repurchasers Of Their Own Stock ............................................................ 962
BUYBACKS - Accounting Magic .................................................................................................................................................................. 964
BUYBACKS - The largest source of overall US equity demand in recent years......................................................................................... 966
BUYBACKS - Has Boosted Median Earnings Growth by 100 bps for S&P 500 ......................................................................................... 969
BUYBACKS - Companies Spend Almost All Profits On Buybacks ............................................................................................................. 974
BUYBACKS - Buyback At Biggest Pace Since 2007 .................................................................................................................................. 979
BUYBACKS - Buyback Party Slowing ......................................................................................................................................................... 981
BUYBACKS - Buyback Party Slowing ......................................................................................................................................................... 986
THE $2T TAX RUSE Its a Free Ride for US Corporations ......................................................................................................................... 991
UNPRECEDENTED BUYBACKS LEVELS ................................................................................................................................................. 991
A FREE TAX RIDE....................................................................................................................................................................................... 993
GENERIC TAX EXAMPLE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 993
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 998
CHARTS Finance the Biggest Source of Corporate Funds rising from 19% to 30% .................................................................................. 998
CHARTS Average Age of Private Fixed Assets ........................................................................................................................................... 999
CHARTS Percent of Families With Business Equity .................................................................................................................................... 999
CHARTS Percent of Families With Business Equity .................................................................................................................................. 1000
CHARTS New England Patriots NFL Franchise Valuation ....................................................................................................................... 1001
CHARTS US Equity Market is Not Outgrowing the Economy AS Measured by the Coincident Indicator ................................................ 1002
CHARTS Deviation of Earnings Above / Below Long Term Growth Trend ............................................................................................... 1003
CHARTS S&P 500, Moodys Baa Corporate & 30Y UST Yields ............................................................................................................... 1003
CHARTS Corporations Carrying Higher Levels of Leverage than a Few Years Ago ................................................................................ 1004
CHARTS US Corporate CFROI (Cash Flow ROI) ..................................................................................................................................... 1005
CHARTS Weakening Sector Retunrs ......................................................................................................................................................... 1005
CHARTS SPX, Corporate Profits versus Employed Population % ............................................................................................................ 1006
CHARTS Executive Incentives Distort Earnings ........................................................................................................................................ 1006
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization as a % of Nominal GDP ............................................................................................................ 1007
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization Adjusted by Gold and CPI ......................................................................................................... 1008
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization versus Total Federal Reserve Assets ....................................................................................... 1009
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus M2 ......................................................................................................................... 1010
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus Monetary Base ..................................................................................................... 1011
CAPITALIZATION Total Market Capitalization versus Gross Federal Debt .............................................................................................. 1012
CAPITALIZATION Market Capitalization Ratios ........................................................................................................................................ 1013
CAPITALIZATION Regional Corporate Loss Comparisons Problems in Japan..................................................................................... 1013
CHARTS 7 Year Total Return Cycle .......................................................................................................................................................... 1014
CHARTS Profit Margins Shrink as Proportion of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1014
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Pre-Announcements .............................................................................................................................................. 1015
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Taken Down Dramatically ..................................................................................................................................... 1015
CHARTS Q1 Earnings Already Taken Down By 5% since January .......................................................................................................... 1016
CHARTS Positive & Negative Q1 Pre-Announcements ............................................................................................................................ 1016
CHARTS Q1 Revenue Slippage in Last 60 Days ...................................................................................................................................... 1017
CHARTS Forward 12 Month EPS vs Price: 10-Year ................................................................................................................................. 1018
CHARTS Forward 12 Month EPS vs Price: 10-Year ................................................................................................................................. 1018
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1020
FUNDAMENTALS A Bad Equilibrium & How Speculative Distortion Ends ............................................................................................... 1020
FUNDAMENTALS Valuations .................................................................................................................................................................... 1028
FUNDAMENTALS Corporate Profits Vaporizing ........................................................................................................................................ 1033
FUNDAMENTALS Fundamentals No Longer Currently Matter - Proof ..................................................................................................... 1037
FUNDAMENTALS Profit Margins - Is the Ladder Starting to Snap? ......................................................................................................... 1038
FUNDAMENTALS The Great PE Multiple Expansion of 2011-2014 ......................................................................................................... 1045
FUNDAMENTALS Stocks Have Never Been More Expensive Based On Long-Term Growth Forecasts ................................................ 1049
FUNDAMENTALS Long Term Return Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 1051
FUNDAMENTALS Profit Margins Contract as a Percentage of GDP ........................................................................................................ 1053
FUNDAMENTALS Stagnant Wages a Major Contributor to Profits ........................................................................................................... 1055
FUNDAMENTALS Worsening risk/reward fundamentals in US corporate credit ...................................................................................... 1057
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