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Universidad de Los Andes, San Carlos de Apoquindo 2200, Las Condes, Santiago, Chile
Chilean Secretariat for Transport Planning (SECTRA), Teatinos 950 Piso 16, Santiago, Chile
Abstract
We analyse various Multiple Classication Analysis (MCA) methods to model trip production (generation). We rst show that the
MCA version most widely used in transport engineering implies a rarely feasible assumption, the transgression of which may drive a
signicant overestimation of the future number of trips and a systematic bias in its socio-economic composition. To illustrate this effect,
we use Monte Carlo simulation and real data from Santiago, Chile to compare the various MCA approaches, concluding that the
aforementioned form should be discarded. Our analysis also shows that the MCA method which is more robust to the structure of the
underlying model, is the simple calculation of trip rates as averages for each category. Finally, we hint at the need to use more
sophisticated formulations than MCA to model trip production.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Multiple classication analysis; MCA; Trip generation; Trip production; Cross-classication
1. Introduction
In 1983, Stopher and McDonald made a pioneering
application of multiple classication analysis (MCA), a
method regularly used in the Social Sciences, to model trip
production (generation) rates within the classic four stages
urban transportation model. Afterwards, the method was
widely replicated in numerous consulting studies, reported
in books and explained in transportation modelling handbooks and reviews.
However, after several years of applications worldwide,
we found empirical evidence that the MCA method, as
described by Stopher and McDonald (1983), may overestimate the future number of trips in an urban transportation system, a problem that makes a revision of its
fundaments a must. With this aim, in this paper we rst
study the basics of various MCA methods described in the
literature. In Section 3 we compare these methods by
means of two Monte Carlo experiments and in Section 4 we
Corresponding author. Tel.: +56 2 4129477; fax: +56 2 2149551.
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515
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C.A. Guevara, A. Thomas / Transport Policy 14 (2007) 514522
ma1
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Therefore, MCA_LOLS could be considered as a
restricted model of MCA_SAC. Thus, if it is assumed,
for example, that errors are distributed Normal (0,s2),
it would be possible to perform an F-test to check for
the statistical difference between both estimated trip
rates.
If the null hypothesis is accepted, that is if MCA_LOLS
and MCA_SAC are statistically equal, this would
be an indication that the underlying model is linear. In
that case MCA_LOLS and MCA_SAC would both
be consistent, but the rst would be more efcient
because it entails the estimation of fewer coefcients
with the same information. Thus, MCA_LOLS should be
chosen.
If the null hypothesis is rejected, this would be an
indication that the underlying model is non-linear. In this
case MCA_SAC would be consistent but MCA_LOLS will
not, because the omitted attributes would be correlated
with the observed linear attributes, causing endogeneity
(Guevara and Ben-Akiva, 2006).
In this sense, MCA_SAC is more robust to the unknown
specication of the underlying model and then should
always be preferred in the case that a statistical test to
compare it with MCA_LOLS is not available.
If the number of observations by category is too small
the trip rates estimated with MCA_SAC will be biased
because of the small sample size. Moreover, if the number
of observations in a category is equal to zero, that trip rate
could not even be estimated. That was one of the main
arguments used by Stopher and McDonald (1983) against
taking simple averages and favouring the usage of
MCA_SM1.
The fact is that, if MCA trip rates by household have to
be estimated when few or none observations are available
for a category, the rst thing to do would be to redene the
stratum boundaries (maybe by grouping categories) and
(or) to estimate a model like (40 ) where a set of d
coefcients is considered only for the categories with
enough observations. Which model should be chosen will
depend upon the data used in each case and could be
checked using straightforward statistical tests.
517
Motorization
Total
1
2
3
352
109
2
132
213
24
3
99
66
487
421
92
Total
463
369
168
1000
Table 2
Real rates, linear model, Monte Carlo simulations
Income
1
2
3
Motorization
0
1.00
1.60
2.20
1.20
1.80
2.40
1.40
2.00
2.60
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Table 3
MCA_SM1 estimated trip rates, linear model, Monte Carlo simulation
Income
1
2
3
Motorization (#cars)
0
0.697
1.43
2.13
1.19
1.92
2.62
1.75
2.49
3.19
Table 4
MCA_SM2 estimated trip rates, linear model, Monte Carlo simulation
Income
1
2
3
Motorization (#cars)
0
0.982
1.59
2.18
1.19
1.80
2.39
1.34
1.94
2.54
Table 5
MCA_LOLS estimated trip rates, linear model, Monte Carlo simulation
Income
1
2
3
Motorization (#cars)
0
0.994
1.59
2.15
1.21
1.80
2.37
1.39
1.98
2.55
Table 6
MCA_SAC estimated trip rates, linear model, Monte Carlo simulation
Income
1
2
3
Motorization (#cars)
0
1.00
1.57
2.23
1.20
1.81
2.35
1.31
1.98
2.55
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Table 7
Average error, 20 Monte Carlo simulations
MCA_SM1 (%)
MCA_SM2 (%)
MCA_LOLS (%)
MCA_SAC (%)
27
39
5.3
24
2.4
18
4.8
4.8
Table 8
Real rates, nonlinear models, Monte Carlo simulations
Table 9
Household based trip production rates, diverse methods, ODS 2001
Income
Income
1
2
3
Motorization (#cars)
0
0.800
1.60
2.70
1.20
1.80
2.40
2.10
2.00
2.80
Motorization
0
Income
MCA SM1
1
0.085
2
0.32
3
0.60
4
0.79
5
0.76
0.22
0.46
0.73
0.93
0.89
0.41
0.65
0.93
1.1
1.1
MCA LOLS
1
0.16
2
0.41
3
0.70
4
0.91
5
0.88
0.074
0.32
0.61
0.83
0.79
0.12
0.37
0.66
0.87
0.84
Motorization
0
MCA SM2
1
0.23
2
0.45
3
0.71
4
0.95
5
0.99
0.15
0.37
0.64
0.87
0.91
0.26
0.48
0.75
0.98
1.0
MCA SAC
1
0.15
2
0.39
3
0.71
4
0.96
5
1.1
0.20
0.37
0.61
0.81
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.59
0.84
0.86
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Table 10
Number of OHB trips and percentage referred to MCA_SAC, diverse methods, 2005 scenario
Motorization
MCA_SM1 (%)
MCA_SM2 (%)
MCA_LOLS (%)
MCA_SAC
0
1
2+
19
19
30
8
9
18
0.53
0.92
0.39
419,022
329,156
172,105
Total
3.8
10
0.015
920,283
Table 11
Number of OHB trips and percentage referred to MCA_SAC, diverse methods, 2010 scenario
Motorization
MCA_SM1 (%)
MCA_SM2 (%)
MCA_LOLS (%)
0
1
2+
18
18
30
4,6
9,9
18
1.8
2.2
0.44
Total
6.8
9.7
0.055
MCA_SAC
459,660
448,738
272,236
1,180,635
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