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Transportation Planning

CE 302 Transportation Engg II


Gitakrishnan Ramadurai
Feb 2011

Contributions by Parvathy V.S. (MS Research Scholar)

Classic four-stage transport model

Database
Base year

future

Trip Generation
Convert measures of urban activity to
fundamental unit of travel demand analysis
trips
City divided into zones; determine trips
produced from (home) and attracted to
(activity centers) in each zone

Study area
Urban level

river
1

3 4

railway

screen line

CBD

1
8
9

5
8

5=sector
56=zone
567=subzone

highway
External cordon line

Types of trips
External to external

External to internal

Internal to internal

Internal to external

Types of Trips
Home-based (HB) trip : home of the trip maker is either origin or destination
Nonhomebased (NHB) trip : neither end of the trip is home of the traveler
Trip production(p) : home end of an HB trip or origin of NHB trip
Trip attraction (a) : non home end of HB trip or destination of NHB trip

p
Home

Work

p
p
a

a
a

Work

a
p

Shop

Classification of trips
By trip purpose:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Work trips
Educational trips
Shopping trips
Social and recreational trips
Other trips

By Time of day:
1.
2.

Morning and evening peak period


Off peak period

By person type:
1.
2.
3.

Income level
Car ownership
Household size and structure

- Mandatory trips

- Optional trips

Trip Generation
Done using
Cross-classification analysis
Multiple linear regression

Cross-classification generate matrices with


average trips made by similar households;
similar households are determined by crossclassification

Trip Generation
Multiple Linear Regression
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 +

y = trips generated, xs are independent


variables/factors that affect number of trips

Trip Generation
Take 2 mins
List variables that can affect trips made by
household
Share and discuss the list with person next to you

How do we develop these models?

Few of the factors affecting trip


generation

o
o
o
o
o

Personal trip production:


Income
Vehicle ownership
Household size
Residential density
Accessibility

o
o
o
o

Personal trip attraction:


Industrial floor area
Commercial floor area
Zonal employment
Accessibility

Household

Trips

Income

Autos

4,000

6,000

10

17,000

11,000

4,500

15

17,000

9,500

9,000

7,000

10

13

19,000

11

18,000

12

21,000

13

7,000

14

11

11,000

15

10

11,000

16

11

13,000

17

12

15,000

18

11,000

19

13,000

20

15,000

Trip Generation
Example

Source: http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/UT.html

Trip Generation

Source: http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/UT.html

Trip Generation

Source: http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/UT.html

Trip Generation
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.970717
R Square 0.942291
Adjusted R Square
0.935501
Standard Error
0.840696
Observations
20

Multiple linear regression

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 196.1849 98.09245 138.7898
2.95525E-11
17 12.01509 0.70677
19
208.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value
Intercept
2.196989 0.50541 4.34694 0.000438
X Variable 1 0.000209 4.56E-05 4.583646 0.000264
X Variable 2 2.77446 0.243225 11.40699 2.18E-09

Lower 95%
1.130666021
0.000112739
2.261301423

Trip Generation

Trip attractions are calculated using above cross-classified model or using regression
techniques.
Finally, trip productions and attractions must be balanced.
Use the model with greater accuracy (usually trip production) and then ensure
attractions = productions

Trip Generation
Turn to your partner again and discuss
shortcomings of models, if any