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Submitter:
Benjamin Ross
Submission Number:
1606-4
Topics:
Evidence:
Page 1
Table of Contents
Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 5
Scope of Supplementary Evidence ................................................................................................... 6
Recap of 051 Centres Zones The Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre proposal ............. 8
f. The accompanying table illustrates the similarities of the geographies of Manukau
and Parramatta ........................................................................................................................... 10
Table 2: Cost Impacts of Planning Rules and Regulations* ................................................ 11
New evidence that has come to light since filing 081f Primary Evidence ................................. 13
Transport for growth in southern Auckland ................................................................................ 23
Existing transport projects............................................................................................................. 23
Potential transport networks ......................................................................................................... 26
Aspirations for the south ........................................................................................................... 26
Transport issues ......................................................................................................................... 26
Ideas for potential improvements to the southern transport network ................................. 26
Southern growth areas .................................................................................................................. 27
Discussion ........................................................................................................................................... 43
Concluding Remarks ......................................................................................................................... 50
Page 2
Summary
1. Per the ACDC15 V3.7 Table 4.5 of STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF DR
JAMES DOUGLAS MARSHALL FAIRGRAY ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND
COUNCIL (ECONOMIC) the Auckland Isthmus area (roughly defined as the
old Auckland City Council area except Otahuhu) under the current Proposed
Auckland Unitary Plan is feasible for at maximum 57,000 new residential
dwellings (with most either in the City Centre or Tamaki areas). Meanwhile the
Urban South (including Otahuhu) and Rural South are currently feasible for
90,500 new residential dwellings.
2. The Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP) Business Land, Land Demand
by Activity and PAUP Supply1 illustrated that the Metropolitan Centres in the
Urban South will not hit capacity until 20362.
3. The Auckland Transport Alignment Program predicts at least 30km of new
residential growth to be more than 20km away from the City Centre while the
City Centre will have the largest employment growth in Auckland.
4. Auckland Transport recently went out for initial consultation with the public on
future transport options in Southern Auckland. Auckland Transport had
claimed the following:
a. New urban areas about the size of Hamilton will be built in south
Auckland during the next 30 years. This will mean approximately:
i. 50,000 new houses.
ii. 13,000 new jobs.
iii. 120,000 increase in population.
b. Transport issues
i. Predicted that 80% of morning work-trip destinations will be no
further north than Manukau and the Airport.
ii. Scale of growth will mean there is a need for stronger northsouth connections.
5. According to FURTHER STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF KYLE OLIVER
BALDERSTON ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND COUNCIL (CAPACITY AND
1
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-ofLand-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis
2
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-ofLand-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis - Page 158
Page 3
Page 4
Introduction
8. In February I had filed my Primary Evidence to Topic 081f outlining the need
to upzone Manukau City Centre from the Metropolitan Centre zone under the
Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan to my proposed Super Metropolitan Centre
Zone.
9. My Primary Evidence to Topics 081f and 051 outlines the reasons for the
Super Metropolitan Centre.
10. At the same time I also called for the Mixed Housing Suburban Zone in the
Manukau residential area south of Manukau City Centre to be upzoned to
either Mixed Housing Urban or Terraced Housing and Apartment Zones.
11. Since my Primary Evidence for Topic 081f was filed in February further
evidence from Auckland Council, Housing New Zealand, and the Ministry for
Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has come out in concerns to
both feasible and spatial extents of residential development in urban
Auckland.
12. In light of that further evidence I am filing this supplementary evidence to build
on my own Topic 081f primary evidence especially in relation to the Manukau
Super Metropolitan Centre proposal.
Page 5
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/301833181/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-JD-Fairgray-Economics-REBUTTAL
Pages 18-19
4
MBIE, Regional Activity Report. 2015
5
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-Alignment-Project-Foundation-Report
Page 29
6
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-ofLand-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis Page 158
7
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-ofLand-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis page 116
Page 6
Page 7
19. Recapping some key points from my 051 Centres Zone Primary Evidence:
a. Residential Developable Capacity for Auckland. A Report on the 013 Topic
Urban Growth for the AUP Independent Hearing Panel by the 013 Expert
Group is referenced in supporting case for the Super Metropolitan Centre
Zone.
b. Purpose of the insertion of the Super Metropolitan Centre Zone was:
i. Acknowledging Manukau and Albanys regional importance to
Auckland and inter-regional importance to the immediate surrounding
regions (Waikato and Northland).9
ii. Facilitate Auckland Councils desire in Shaping a Business-Friendly
City (see Councils document on this at
http://www.scribd.com/doc/190821467/Shaping-a-Business-FriendlyCity ).10
iii. For the Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre; the new Objectives and
Policies acknowledging the social provisions (The Southern Initiative)
in the Auckland Plan.
c. Finally I go back to the comment from Mr Bonis (point 48.a) that I had placed
in bold: I do not consider that a new zone of the type described is
necessary at this stage of Aucklands development.
Page 8
e. Given that
i. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan falls short in enabling enough
capacity for residential dwellings over the life of the Plan and
ii. the potential Albany and Manukau City Centre a Super Metropolitan
Centres to not only help fulfil the realisations on the Auckland Plan but
remedy some of the development capacity shortfalls noted in this
document.
Page 9
f.
University of Western
Sydney: 10,000
students by 2017
Nearby Industrial
Complexes/Areas
Immediate
population
catchment
Knowledge
Industries:
Western Sydney
including Greater
Parramatta
Current Transport
Infrastructure
Heavy Rail,
Motorways, Ferry, Bus
Transit Ways, Arterial
Roads
Light Rail, improved
cycling and walking
connections
Future Transport
Infrastructure
Opportunities
Place in relative City
Education, Health
Manukau
MIT and AUT South
campuses: 1800
12
FTE as of 2015. 5,000
13
FTE by 2020
A more sophisticated
entertainment and retail
15
offer . Te Papa North
campus proposed
Wiri, Airport, East
Tamaki, Highbrook,
Takanini, Drury South
16
Southern Auckland
11
Note the below footnotes are from my 051 Centres Zone Primary Evidence document
Full Time Equivalent (Student)
13
http://voakl.net/2015/07/21/south-auckland-the-cotinued-rising-jewel-in-aucklands-crownbetterauckland/
14
See 42.f of this document
15
See 25.c.III of this document
16
Southern Auckland defined from Otahuhu at Portage Road south to the border with the Waikato
12
Page 10
20. I will as a reference paste in below an excerpt from the Impacts of Planning
Rules, Regulations, Uncertainty and Delay on Residential Property Development
report for the Treasury and MBIE written in December, 2014 by the Motu
Economic and Public Policy Research unit17. The excerpt is on height rules
having possible impacts on the cost of development.
$18,000 to $32,000
Subdivisions
See note 2
https://www.scribd.com/doc/253323001/The-Impacts-of-Planning-Rules-Regulations-Uncertainty-andDelay-on-Residential-Property-Development
18
I have read the Interim guidance text for Topic 020 Viewshafts - released 17 July 2015
Page 11
22. 19Given that per the 013 RPS Urban Growth - Expert Conference Outcome
Report - Residential Developable Capacity for Auckland report20 said that the
Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan as it stands would only allow 11%21 of the
400,000 proposed dwellings needed in the operative Auckland Plan, and that if
you look on the maps of that report (page 66 (of 69) onwards) only Takapuna
Metropolitan Centre was deemed viable or rather ready for residential
development. The other nine Metropolitan Centres were deemed not viable to
undertake residential construction and it has to be asked is the Proposed
Auckland Unitary Plan causing that situation?
23. Despite the ACDC15 modelling now at Version 3.7 (showing changes to
development controls and zone spatial applications) the concerns raised above are
still not in my opinion being addressed if we are to be The Worlds Most Liveable
City.
19
Note the below footnotes are from my 051 Centres Zone Primary Evidence document
https://www.scribd.com/doc/272429202/013-RPS-Urban-Growth-Expert-Conference-Outcome-ReportResidential-Developable-Capacity-for-Auckland
21
Page 5 of the report as linked on footnote 42
20
Page 12
Note the ATAP is not filed before the Independent Hearings Panel but is being used here as supporting
material to this document.
23
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-ofLand-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis
Page 13
Figure 1: 081 Housing New Zealand - Capacity and Feasibility Modelling _ MBIE - (David Hermans) _ Post Hearing
Response. https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-ModellingMBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P.2
24
As cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-FeasibilityModelling-MBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response
Page 14
b.
Figure 2: 081 Housing New Zealand - Capacity and Feasibility Modelling _ MBIE - (David Hermans) _ Post Hearing
Response. https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-ModellingMBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P.12
Page 15
c.
Figure 3: 081 Housing New Zealand - Capacity and Feasibility Modelling _ MBIE - (David Hermans) _ Post Hearing
Response. https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-ModellingMBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P2-3
Page 16
d.
Figure 4: 081 Housing New Zealand - Capacity and Feasibility Modelling _ MBIE - (David Hermans) _ Post Hearing
Response. https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-ModellingMBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P.4
Page 17
25
As cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046454/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-FeasibilityModelling-a-Linzey-and-M-Lindenberg-Planning-Post-Hearing-Response
Page 18
26
Page 19
b. On nominal value if you divide the 14,700 dwellings over the ten
Metropolitan Centre zones that is some 1,470 dwellings or roughly five
18-storey (72m) apartment towers which is not a lot for a Metropolitan
Centre under the maximum number of dwelling scenario.
29. The Auckland Transport Alignment Project illustrated the following27:
a. 3.3. Location of Population and Employment Growth
b. The location of population and employment growth across Auckland
over the next 30 years will have a significant impact on the transport
networks future requirements and performance. The location and
timing of growth will be driven by a number of factors including:
i. The level of development provided for by statutory land-use
planning documents (e.g. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan).
ii. The market attractiveness of development.
iii. The provision of infrastructure and services to support and
enable growth (e.g. water and transport infrastructure, schools
etc.).
iv. The locational demands of businesses and how these may
change over time.
c. Auckland Council undertakes research and modelling to enable an
understanding of where and when future growth is expected to occur.
The scenario being used by the project is based off a medium
population growth rate and reflects the direction of the Auckland Plan
by projecting an approximate split of future household growth of 60%
inside the current urban area and 40% through urban expansion.
d. The location of projected household and employment growth in
Auckland over the next 30 years is shown in the maps below, as well
as the location of future urban growth areas (shaded).
27
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-Alignment-Project-Foundation-Report
P.28-29
Page 20
e.
f. Two key growth distribution trends are highlighted in the maps above.
i. Population growth is spread throughout the Auckland urban area
and extends into major future urban growth areas to the north,
northwest and south of the existing city. Nearly a third of
population growth is projected to occur in areas beyond 20 km
of the city centre.
ii.
Page 21
g. The trends are further illustrated in the graph below by comparing the
i.
Page 22
30. Auckland Transport would agree with such assessment made by the ATAP
and had sent the following out for initial submissions with further submissions
due again in April-May (note I have left the formatting as pulled from the
Auckland Transport website for ease of reading):
Page 23
New localised transport improvements will be provided for special housing areas as they are
built.
Page 24
Page 25
Transport issues
Predicted that 80% of morning work-trip destinations will be no further north than
Manukau and the Airport.
Scale of growth will mean there is a need for stronger north-south connections.
Rapid transit between the Airport, Manukau and Botany with good connections to rail.
Page 26
Additional ideas:
Takanini
Further development around Takanini is sequenced for about 2027-31.
Page 27
1 local centre.
Aspirations
Enable a well-connected new centre to develop adjacent to Takanini East industrial area.
Strong freight connections from Takanini industrial/ commercial area to State Highway 1
and Waikato.
Transport choices with good walking and cycling, frequent and reliable public transport.
Issues
Increased safety risk and train frequency means we need to remove all level crossings in
Takanini.
Issues with ground stability a challenge to providing integrated transport and storm water
solutions.
Page 28
North-south corridor improvements: should the Mill Road corridor, marked on the map
with a navy dashed arrow, extend south to better connect the southern growth areas at
Drury and Opaheke and beyond?
Takanini East to West connections: which east-west movements, marked with blue
dashed arrows, should be prioritised in the future? Such as:
Page 29
Walters Rd connection.
Taka St connection.
Potential new train station at Tironui, marked on the map with an orange and green area
around a train symbol: how important is this station to the growth area or should we
improve access to the existing Takanini station?
8000-9400 dwellings.
6100-10800 dwellings.
Aspirations
Successful town centres and the area connected with public transport.
Page 30
Transport choices with good walking and cycling facilities and frequent and reliable public
transport.
Issues
Improve access to these areas without making long distance travel between Auckland to
Waikato worse.
Page 31
Potential new north-south corridor, marked on the map with navy dashed arrows:
o
Should the Mill Road corridor extend south to better connect the growth areas at
Drury and Opaheke and provide an additional north-south route?
Page 32
A potential future rail station, marked on the map with an orange and green area round a
train symbol, associated with the Park and Ride at Drury has been identified. Would
another location be better?
Should current improvements to State Highway 1, marked on the map with a red dashed
arrow, be extended to Drury or beyond? What is most important for these improvements,
a focus on travel times, reliability, safety, access or something else?
6867-7957 dwellings.
No new centres
4767-5476 dwellings.
1 local centre.
Page 33
Aspirations
Transport choices with good walking and cycling and frequent and reliable public
transport.
Issues
Improving access to this area without making long distance travel between Auckland and
Waikato worse.
Page 34
A potential rail station (including park and ride) at Paerata has been identified, marked on
the map by a train symbol with a green and orange area around it. How important is this
station to the growth area?
Page 35
Increased safety risk and train frequency means that we may need to reduce the
number of rail crossings and provide bridges over rail in Paerata, marked on the
map by an orange dashed arrow. Where are the key areas for potential future
east-west crossings in Paerata?
Or should the Mill Rd corridor, marked on the map with a green dashed arrow be
extended west to Pukekohe, with State Highway 22 improvements focused on
safety and improved access?
Electric trains to Pukekohe: Planning is underway for extending electric trains from
Papakura to Pukekohe. Beyond this south of Pukekohe could be serviced by bus or rail.
Would there be sufficient demand to extend rail services to the northern Waikato growth
areas (Tuakau, Pokeno and beyond)?
Source: https://at.govt.nz/projects-roadworks/transport-for-future-urbangrowth/transport-for-growth-in-southern-auckland/
Page 36
31. Some key highlights from the PAUP Business Land, Land Demand by
Activity and PAUP Supply Report to the IHP2829:
a.
28
Page 37
b.
Page 38
c.
Page 39
d.
Page 40
e.
Page 41
32. In short the information from the ATAP report, MBIE, Housing New Zealand,
PAUP Business Land Report and Auckland Transport consultation information
illustrates a mismatch between spatial spread of housing (37.4% in the South)
and employment (City Centre and to a smaller extent the Airport complex).
33. This mismatch will:
a. Cause Auckland Transport to miss its 80% of southern commuters
going no further than Manukau City Centre and Airport Projections.
b. Cause even worse congestion on the roading network (especially the
Southern Motorway) as people travel into the Isthmus from the South
for employment.
c. Lower quality of life and productivity from that congestion issue
mentioned above:
Page 42
Discussion
34. Bearing in mind the above I have used the Council ACDC modelling which is
available from the IHP website to test a theory to see whether lifting Manukau
out of the Metropolitan Centre Zone into the City Centre would boost
feasibility capacity for Manukau.
35. For reference this is the Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre area in question:
36. According to the ACDC v3.7 modelling Manukau Metropolitan Centre had a
feasibility capacity of 12%30 compared to 19% average for the other
Metropolitan Centres31.
37. Upzoning the Manukau Metropolitan Centre Zone area using the ACDC v3.7
modelling to the City Centre Zone (as a theoretical test run) moved the
feasible capacity from 12% to 24%. The upzoning to City Centre Zone
increased the nominal quantity of residential dwellings 35% from 1,444 and
1,955. Dwelling prices also increased 7% which in itself is not a bad thing
while size of dwellings drops some 21m2 or 14% again which for a large
proposed Super Metropolitan Centre like Manukau is not a bad thing either
30
31
Manukau Metropolitan Centre was rated as LOW in the Sales Location Group category
Difference between the Low and Regional Sale Point Categories in the ACDC modelling runs
Page 43
(as it means more dwellings to a set area and a larger residential population
base)32.
32
Page 44
38. The table and charts from the ACDC model run I ran can be seen below 33:
a.
33
Page 45
b.
Page 46
34
http://voakl.net/2016/03/21/unitaryplan-business-zone-capacity-study-interesting-lacks-human-geographyelement/ . Also Evidence (Primary). Benjamin Ross. Topic 051. Paragraph 25. Pages 15-17.
Page 47
40. Thus some of the key reasons for the Super Metropolitan Centre are the
following:
a. Reducing commutes up the Southern Motorway and Southern rail Line
through the Otahuhu-Mt Wellington bottleneck (thus achieving
Auckland Transports no further than 80% going further north than
Manukau).
b. Reduction in such long commutes would benefit productivity (less
people being strung up from the long commute).
c. Physical environmentally beneficial if congestion can be mitigated by
the above.
d. Better for our mental health again owing to mitigation against long
commutes.
e. Open up accessibility to high paying and knowledge jobs to the South
which does feel the effects of higher social deprivation.
f. Required infrastructure investment could be reassigned elsewhere if
long commutes are cut down and higher concentrations of employment
are provided closer to home.
Page 48
g. Both the South and Isthmus cooperate with each specialising out to
demands and needs.
h. The South evolves its heart (Manukau City Centre) to their social
identity and demands to that identity (the South affiliates with Manukau
more than the main City Centre).
i.
j.
Page 49
Concluding Remarks
41. Since the filing of my Primary Evidence to Topic 081f new substantial material
has come to light from various public sources that should be considered by
the Independent Hearings Panel in regards to the rezoning of the Manukau
Metropolitan Centre to the proposed Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre.
42. According to reports and comments from NZTA, Auckland Transport, MBIE,
Housing New Zealand, and the Councils PAUP Business Land report to the
IHP 33% of population growth will be more than 20km from the City Centre
(most to the Urban and Rural South) while the demand for business land is
concentrated to the City Centre (commercial) and Urban South (industrial).
43. This mismatch between spatial locations of key residential and employment
areas will have negative effects on:
a. Quality of Life.
b. Productivity.
c. Transportation network especially at key choke points.
d. Physical Environment.
44. While the Auckland Plan and Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan have 10
Metropolitan Centres listed the Manukau Metropolitan Centre was mooted as
a Super Metropolitan Centre through my submission points on wider
Geography grounds, those grounds are mentioned in Paragraph 40.
45. The Super Metropolitan Centre is never designed to compete nor replace the
main City Centre, it is designed to complement and accommodate the
geography of Aucklands largest and fastest growing sub-region the Urban
and Rural South.
46. The ACDC15 modelling that I ran while high-level upzoning the Manukau
Metropolitan Centre Zone to the City Centre (then back calculating for the
Super Metropolitan Centre zone) it did show feasible capacity for residential
development in Manukau went from 12% (under the Metropolitan Centre
Zone) to 24% (City Centre Zone) or around 18% for Super Metropolitan
Centre zoning.
47. The ACDC15 modelling also showed an increase in dwelling supply (while
dwellings would be smaller thus more efficient land footprint wise) and
increase in dwelling and floor space price. This is not necessarily a bad thing
Benjamin Ross. Supplementary Evidence. Topic 081f South.
Page 50
c. Given that
i. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan falls short in enabling
enough capacity for residential dwellings over the life of the
Plan and
ii. the potential Albany and Manukau City Centre a Super
Metropolitan Centres to not only help fulfil the realisations on the
Auckland Plan but remedy some of the development capacity
shortfalls noted in this document.
Benjamin Ross
March 22, 2016
35
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