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Q1

Q1

Q1

(a)

(b)

(c)

Interpret :

x
233
x
=
=
n
6
y
2106.74
y
=
=
n
6
(
233
)
2
S
= −
10231
xx
6
S
= −
841161.928
yy
(
S
= 92765.08 −
xy

FINAL SCHEME BSM2922 SEM II 2008/2009

PART A (COMPULSORY)

The number of pounds od steam usage
600
500
400
300
200
100
20
30
40
50
60
TEMP
USAGE

F1 (for all x-axes)

and

F1 (for all y-axes)

(

10953.3433

)(

1182.8333 101436.3567

)

A1

A1

Sample correlation coefficient :

Strong positive linear relationship between temperature and steam used per month.

x
2
2
y x
y
xy
21
185.79
441
34517.9241
3901.59
24
214.47
576
45997.3809
5147.28
32
288.03
1024
82961.2809
9216.96
47
424.84
2209
180489.0256
19967.48
50
454.58
2500
206642.9764
22729
59
539.03
3481
290553.3409
31802.77
∑ 2106.74
∑ 10231
∑ 841161.928
= 351.1183
= 1182.8333
A1
(
2
2106.74 )
= 101436.3567
A1
6
)(
)
= 10953.3433
A1
6

233 2106.74

∑ 233
∑ 92765.08

= 38.8333

r =

=

0.9999

^
S
10953.3433
xy
β
=
=
=
9.2603
A1
1
S
1182.8333
xx
^
β
=
(351.1183)
(9.2603)(38.8333)
= −
8.4897
A1
0
^
Regression line :
y =
9.2603
x −
8.4897
A1
Interpret :
One unit increase in temperature (x) will increase 9.2603 in usage steam (y).
A1
Q1
(d)
^
With x = 10 ,
y =
9.2603(10)
8.4897
=
84.1133
A1
Q1
(e)
Step 1 :
H
:
β =−
8.3
0
0
H
1 : β ≠ −
8.3
(
Claim ) B1
0
Step 2 :
Given : α = 0.01, α
2 = 0.01 2 = 0.005 , n = 6, v = 6 – 2 = 4
Use t-distribution,
t
=±t
=± 4.604
.
A1
α
0.005, 4
, v
2
Decision Rule :
Reject H 0 if test value, falls in rejection regions,
t
> 4.604
or
t
< −4.604
.
M1
C
C
Step 3 :
^
SSE
S
β
S
101436.3567
(9.2603)(10953.3433)
yy
1
xy
MSE =
=
=
= 1.277935
A1
n − 2
n −
2
6
2
ˆ
*
β
β
( 8.4897)
− −
(
8.3)
0
0
t
=
=
M1
T
2
2
_
(38.8333) 
1
x
1.277935
  1
+
MSE
+
6
1182.8333
n
S
xx
= −0.13976 A1
Step 4 :
The test value,
t
= −0.13976
is less than the critical value,
t
= −4.604
which is not falls in
T
C
the rejection region. We do not reject H .
A1
0
Step 5 :
We have not enough evidence to support the claim that the intercept is not equal to -8.3.
A1

Q2

Q2

Q2

(a)

(b)

(c)

Type I error, α is the probability of reject H 0 when it is true.

Type II error, β is the probability of do not reject H 0 when it is false.

A1

A1

Step 1 :

H

0

 : µ = 3500 : µ > 3500 (Claim)
 Step 2 : − Give n = 100 , x = 3650 , σ = 470 , α = 5% .

Condition I : σ known, n 30 . We use standard normal distribution.

The right tail test. With α = 5% = 0.05 , then

Decision rule :

.

Step 3 :

Reject H

Z =Z

α

0.05 =

1.645 .

Z test

A1

> 1.645

0 if test value falls in the rejection region, which is

Z test

 _ x − µ 3650 − 3500
 = = σ 470
n
100

= 3.19148

A1

M1

M1

M1

Step 4 :

Since the test value is 3.19148 which are in the critical region, we reject the null hypothesis.

A1.

Step 5 :

There is enough evidence to say that the maintenance cost will be more than RM3500 per month. A1

 Given : Outlet A Outlet B Sample size 14 24 Sample mean 85 74 Sample standard deviation 12 9 Step 1 :

H

1

: µ

1

µ

2

(Claim)

B1

H

1

B1

H

0

: µ = µ

1

2

Q3

(a)(i)

Step 2 :
Condition F :
2
2
σ ,
σ
unknown, but not equal and
n , n < 30 . We use t-distribution. M1
1
2
1
2
2
2
 12
9 2
14
24 
 
186.6151148 M1
+ 0.495244565
+
14
− 1
24
− 1
= 21.61550315 ≈ 22
A1
The two tailed test. Using α = 0.1 , α 2 = 0.05 , then
± t
= ±
1.717
.
A1
0.05,22
Decision rule :
Reject
H
if test value falls in the rejection region, which is
< −1.717
or
T
> 1.717
.
0
T test
test
M1
Step 3 :
(
X
X
)
(
µ
µ
)
(85
74)
(0)
1
2
1
2
=
=
M1
t T
2
2
2
2
s
s
12
9
1
2
+
+
n
n
14
24
1
2
= 2.97615
A1
Step 4 :
Since the test value is 2.97615, which is in the critical region, we reject the null hypothesis.
A1
Step 5 :
We can conclude that, the mean of delivery time between outlet 1 and outlet 2 is not
equal.
A1

PART B (CHOICE)

∑ P(x) = 1
1 1
2 3
5
k+ = 1
6
5
k= 1−
6

+

v=

12

2

2

  9

2

=

2 8.138147567

14

 

  

24

k +

+

=

1 M1

1
k =
A1
6
Q3
(a)(ii)
F(0) =P(0) = 0
F(−3) =P(0) +P(1) = 0 +1 6 = 1 6
M1
F(6) =P(0) +P(1) +P(2) = 0 +1 6 +1 2 = 2 3
M1
F(9) =P(0) +P(1) +P(2) +P(3) = 0 +1 6 +1 2 +1 2 = 1
0
, x <− 3
1/6
,
− ≤
3
x
<
6
F
(
x
) =
A1
2/3
,
6
x
<
9
1
, x ≥ 9
Q3
(a)(iii)
 1 
 1 
 1 
E( X )
=−
3
+ 6
+ 9
M1
 
6
 
2
 
3
= 5.5
A1
 1 
 1 
 1 
2
2
)
= −
(
3
)
2
2
E
(
X
+ 6
+ 9
M1
 
6
 
2
 
3
= 46.5
A1
2
2
2
E
[(
X +
2)
]
= E X + X +
[(
4
4)]
= E X + E X + E
(
)
4
(
)
(4)
=
46.5
+
4(5.5)
+
4
M1
= 72.5
A1
Q3
(a)(iv)
2
Var X = E X − E X
(
)
(
)
[
)]
2
2
(
=
46.5
(5.5)
=
16.25
A1
Var X + = Var X + Var
(4
1)
2
4
(
)
(1)
M1
=
16(16.25) + 0
M1
=
260
A1
Q3
(b)(i)
+∞
f (x) dx = 1
−∞
0
1
x 5
(0)
dx
+
e
dx
=
1
M1
5
−∞
0
1
− x
5
e
dx
= 1
5
0
−x 5
1
e
=
1
M1
5
1
5
0
[
−x
5
]
e
= 1
0
− ∞
(
) 5
]
[
0 5
]
[ − e
− −
e
= 1
(0) − (−1) = 1
1 = 1 (Prove)
A1
Q3
(b)(ii)
2
1
− x / 5
P
(
− 1 ≤
X
<
2)
=
e
dx
5
0
1
− x
5
=
e
dx
5
0
2
5
1
−x
e
=
5
1
5 
0
=[
− x 5
] 2
e
0
[
− (2) 5
]
[
0 5
]
= −e
− −e
M1
= (−0.67032) − (−1)
= 0.32968
A1
Q4
(a)(i)
Given that n = 10 and p = 0.08 , then X ~ B(10, 0.08)
B1
10
10
10
10
P X =
(
10)
=
C
0.08
0.92
M1
10
11
=
1.07374
×
10
A1
Q4
(a)(ii)
µ = np
= 10 × 0.08
M1
= 0.8
A1
Q4
(b)(i)
Given that,
X P
~
(2.2)
0
2
2
Then,
2.2 ⇒ 1 m
and
x ⇒ 10 m
M1
x
2.2
=
, then x = 2.2 ×10 = 22
10
1
X P
~
(22)
0
P( X < 20) = 1 − P( X ≥ 20) M1
= 1 − 0.6940
= 0.3060
A1
Q4
(b)(ii)
2
2
Then,
22 ⇒ 10 m
and
x ⇒ 100 m
M1
x
22
=
, then x = 22 ×10 = 220
100
10
X P
~
(220)
0
µ = 220
A1
2
σ =
220
A1
Q4
(c)(i)
Given that : X ~ N (0, 1)
B1
1.32
0 
M1
P X
(
1.32
)
=
P Z
<
M1
1
=
P(Z < 1.32)
=
1 − P(Z > 1.32)
M1
=
1 − 0.0934
=
0.9066
A1
Q4
(c)(ii)
0.3
0
1.02
0 
M1
P
(
0.3
<
X
<
1.02
)
=
P
<
Z
<
M1
1
1
= P(− 0.3 < Z < 1.02)
= 1 − P(Z > 0.3) − P(Z > 1.02)
M1
= 1 − 0.3821 − 0.1539
= 0.4640
A1
Q5
(a)(i)
 2499
2500
2510
2500 
P
(2499
<
X
<
2510)
=
P
<
Z
<
M1
2
2
50
50
5
5
= P(−0.04 < Z < 0.45)
= 1 − P(Z > 0.04) − P(Z > 0.45)
M1
= 1− 0.4840 − 0.3264
M1
= 0.1896
A1
Q5
(a)(ii)
2550
2500 
P( X
<
2550)
=
P Z
<
M1
500
=
P(Z < 2.24)
=
1− P(Z > 2.24)
M1
=
1 − 0.01255

Q5

Q5

Q5

Q5

(a)(iii)

(b)(i)

(b)(ii)

(b)(iii)

= 0.9875

A1

 
2450
− 2500 
2
50
10
= P(Z > −3.16)
= 1 − P(Z > 3.16) M1
= 1 − 0.00069
= 0.9993
A1
Low Concentration
High Concentration
Sample mean
55
60
Sample standard deviation
4
4
Sample size
16
16
58
60 
)
58
=
2
4
 
16
=
P(Z > −2)
=
1 −
P(Z > 2) M1
=
1 − 0.02275
=
0.97725
A1

 

2
4
  
16

= P(Z < −1)

= P(Z

= 0.1587 A1

> 1)

M1

Step 1 :

Step 2 :

P ( X

2450)

=

P Z

>

M1

(

PX

H >

P Z

>

M1

(

PX

L <

54 )

=

P Z

<

54

55

M1

µ

H

µ

L

= 60 55 = 5

2
4 2
4
2
2
σ
σ
=
+
= 2
H
L
16
16
Step 3 :
X
X
~ N(5, 2)
H
L
Step 4 :
0
5 
P(X
X
>
0)
=
P Z
>
M1
H
L
2
= P(Z > −3.54)
= 1 − P(Z > 3.54) M1
= 1 − 0.0023
M1
= 0.9977
A1
Q6
(a)(i)
Given that : E = 20 and σ = 100 .
Level of confidence : (1 − α)100% = 99%
α
= 1 − 0.99 = 0.01
α 2 = 0.01 2 = 0.005
From standard normal table :
Z
=Z
=
2.58
α
2
0.005
2
Z
σ
α
2
Sample size,
n
=
E
2
 (2.58) (100) 
n
=
M1
20
n
= 166.41
n
≈ 167 A1
So we will need to sample at least 167 (rounded up) randomly. With this sample we will be
99% confident that the sample mean will be within 20 of the true population.
Q6
(a)(ii)
Step 1 :
Given, n = 27 and σ = 100 (sample)
Condition B : σ known, n < 30 , we use normal distribution. M1
Step 2 :
Level of significance : (1 − α)100% = 98%
α
= 1 − 0.98 = 0.02
α
2 = 0.02 2 = 0.01

Q6

(b)(i)

From standard normal table :

Step 3 :

 − The point estimate, x = 290 Step 4 : 290 − Step 5 :
 ±Z α 2 − z α 2 ⋅
 M1  ⋅  
 _   σ <   σ  n   x  n µ z α 2
 _ < x + 2.33 ⋅ µ < 290 +

  100

<

27

2.33

100

27

245.1591 < µ < 334.8408 A1

M1

With 98% confidence level, we can conclude that based on 27 televisions, the true mean

value of all television is between 245.1591 and 334.8408. A1

 Step 1 : 2 Case D : σ 1 2 = σ 2 Step 2 :
 Academic Staff Administration Staff n 1 = 14 n 2 = 17 − − x 1 = 9.2 x 2 = 7.9 s 1 = 1.3 s 2 = 1.5

unknown,

n 1

n and we use t-distribution.

2

Level of significance : (1 α)100% = 95%

Degree of freedom,

α = 1 0.95 = 0.05

α

v=n +n

1

2

2

=

2 = 0.05 2 = 0.025

29

17

14

+

− =

2

2.045

A1

 S 2 p = ( 14 − ) 1 (1.3) 2 + ( 17 − ) 1 (1.5) 2 14 + 17 − 2 S 2 = 1.99896 A1

p

M1

 Step 3 : _ _ Point estimate : x −x = 1 2 9.2 − 7.9 = 1.3

t α

2,

v

=t

0.025, 29

Z

0.01

2.33

Step 4 :
Confidence interval for difference means :
_
_
_
_
1
1
  
1
1
x
x
t
S
+
<
µ
µ
<
x
x
+
t
S
+
1
2
1
2
α
2,
v
p
1
2
α
2,
v
p
n
n
n
n
1
2
 
1
2
1
1
1
1
(
)(
)
)(
9.2
7.9
)
(
)
2.045
1.99896
+
<µ −µ <
(
9.2
7.9
)
+
(
2.045
1.99896
+
1
2
14
17
14
17
M1
0.25651
< µ − µ <
2.34348
A1
1
2
Step 5 :
The difference between means time of attendance record by academic staff to administration
staff is between 0.25651 and 2.34348. A1
Q6
(b)(ii)
Step 1 :
_
x
1599
+
1699
+
1799
+
1899
+
1999
+
2099
+
2299
+
2499
+
2699
x =
=
n
9
18591
=
9
= 2065.67
A1
2
2
n
(
)
x
x
2
s =
nn −
(
1)
9 39502809
(
)
2
(
18591
)
=
9(9
1)
= 137500
A1
We use chi-square distribution. M1
Step 2 :
Level of significance :
(1 − α)100% = 98%
α
= 1 − 0.98 = 0.02
α
2 = 0.02 2 = 0.01
Degree of freedom, v = n −1 = 9 −1 = 8
2
2
χ
v = χ
= 20.09
α
2,
0.01,8
A1
2
2
χ
= χ
= 1.646
1
−α
2,
v
0.99,8
Step 3 :
2
The point estimate,
s =
137500
Step 4 :
(
2
2
n
1
)
s
(
n
1
)
s
2
<
σ
<
2
2
χ
χ
α
2,
v
1
α
2,
v
(
9
1 137500
)(
)
(
9
1 137500
)(
)
2
<
σ
<
M1
20.09
1.646
2
54753.608
< σ <
668286.755
A1
Step 5 :
With 98% of confidence level, we can say that the true variance of the population is between
RM54753.608 and RM668286.755. A1